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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Maybe the only complaint on a day like Tuesday would be from allergy sufferers! We are in the heart of pollen season across the area, and with the lack of rainfall recently, and the very Springlike weather there has certainly been an abundance of pollen lately. However, let's try not to complain because it is hard to beat this weather. The latest Pacific high pressure is in control across the Gulf rim as we speak. This provided fantastic weather on Tuesday with abundant sunshine, and pleasant temperatures all around. It was refreshingly cool this morning with morning lows generally right on target from what was forecast in the low to mid 40s. Afternoon highs met or exceeded the normal value for mid-March with readings typically in the lower 70s. There was nothing to beware of weather wise on this Ides of March. The shear greatness continues tonight with the controlling high pressure remaining the driving force behind our weather for the time being. Clear skies will prevail overnight with light surface winds generally from an Easterly direction. Lows will fall into the mid to upper 40s tonight, just a few degrees warmer than last night. The presence of cold air advection will be non-existent tonight. The surface high will continue to shift Eastward through the night, and winds will begin to take on a Southerly component around sunrise. A light jacket or sweater might be necessary once again Wednesday morning, but overall another pleasantly cool morning is on tap.
If you didn't get enough spectacular Spring weather today, well there is good news! More of the same is expected on Wednesday with only minor differences expected. A subtle return flow will become established as our controlling high shifts to the East, allowing the Gulf of Mexico to open back up. Humidity values will still be on the low side, but will certainly begin creeping upward. Dew points will also respond in tandem. After the cool start, expect a pleasant afternoon with highs reaching the low to mid 70s area wide with the exception being the immediate coast where temps will hold in the mid to upper 60s because of the marine influence. Skies should generally be Sunny, but some clouds may dot the landscape later in the day as low-level moisture increases. Quiet weather holds true for Wednesday night, but it will be much milder with overnight lows holding above normal with readings generally in the mid 50s or so. Skies will be Clear to Partly Cloudy, and with the increased low-level moisture some patchy fog can't be ruled out especially near the coast heading into Thursday morning, but it doesn't look like a big issue since the boundary layer won't be completely moist just yet. The dry regime rolls on for Thursday with no real change in the forecast reasoning since yesterday. Certainly, a more warm and humid regime will be established with the Southerly flow in place, but all large scale weather systems will bypass our region. Partly Cloudy to Mostly Sunny skies are expected for Thursday with afternoon highs in the upper 70s on average, but the warmest locations North of I-10 may very well reach or exceed 80 for a few hours. It looks like the Luck O' the Irish is with us this year, ye lads and lassies!
The nice Spring weather will prevail for Friday through the weekend as well. All weekend activities get the green light. We will be on the Western perimeter of a large anti-cyclone centered over the SE United States, but as storm systems move across the country to our North, this high will strengthen and perhaps retrograde a bit. This will keep the nice weather going. The onshore flow will maintain itself. The main issue for the Friday-Sunday time frame will be the possibility of late night/early morning fog. It doesn't appear that it will be very dense at this juncture since I believe the advancing storm systems moving across the country to our North will keep enough mixing in place to preclude the development of dense fog. Temperatures will be fairly uniform each day with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and a general mix of sun and clouds expected. There will be times when it is Mostly Sunny, times when it is Partly Cloudy, and perhaps some Mostly Cloudy periods as well. No matter what the sky condition rain chances will remain non-existent from the forecast through the weekend. Expect fairly uniform morning lows as well with readings above normal in all locations Friday through Sunday with readings between the upper 50s and lower 60s. The air may be a little drier in the afternoons for the weekend compared to the end of the work week depending on the orientation of the surface high. Spring officially begins Sunday evening with the Vernal Equinox. Though, we have been and will continue to enjoy a free preview of Spring until then and beyond.
A dry but humid and unseasonably warm regime will carry over into next week. There is still much uncertainty regarding our next chance for shower and thunderstorm activity. Yesterday, you may remember, I mentioned a slight chance for showers for Monday. I will forgo that solution today and just keep a general Partly to Mostly Cloudy sky condition. It should be quite breezy as well with an intensifying storm system downstream resulting in an increased pressure gradient across the area. A very similar temperature pattern is on tap for Monday. Further changes will occur at the end of this forecast period on Tuesday. At this time, the previously mentioned slight chance of rain for Monday will be pushed back to Tuesday as the next Pacific trough and attendant cold front move closer to the region thus allowing for some scattered showers & isolated thunderstorms to develop during the day. It will remain on the warm & muggy side with highs generally picking at the 80 degree threshold. Morning lows will be well into the 60s as a long-fetch Southerly flow continues to transport deep tropical moisture into the forecast area. This is very typical in a pre-frontal environment this time of year. It still appears a better chance for showers & thunderstorms will come just beyond the scope of this forecast period at mid-week next week as the aforementioned cold front moves into and through the area. It is too soon to speculate on how much rain there will be, and if there will be a severe weather threat that unfurls across our portion of the world.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 47/74 55/77 58/79 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 46/75 54/77 57/78 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 49/76 57/78 60/80 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 43/75 50/80 55/81 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 44/75 50/80 55/81 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 48/73 56/76 59/78 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Clear. Low 47. Light East wind.
Wednesday...Sunny. High 74. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear. Low 55. Light SE wind.
Thursday...Partly Cloudy. High 77. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday Night..Partly Cloudy w/ Patchy Fog after midnight. Low 58. SE 5-10 mph.
Friday...Patchy Fog early, otherwise Partly Cloudy. High 79. SSW wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday 3/16/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 47
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 2
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 59
Rain: 0%
Wind: ESE 4
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 66
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 8
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 71
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 8
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 3
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
3-16-11
Low: 47
High: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
Thursday
3-17-11
St. Patrick's Day
Low: 55
High: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Friday
3-18-11
Low: 58
High: 79
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 10-15
Saturday
3-19-11
Low: 58
High: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 10-15
Sunday
3-20-11
Vernal Equinox
Low: 61
High: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 10-15
Monday
3-21-11
Low: 63
High: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 15-20
Tuesday
3-22-11
Low: 65
High: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Wednesday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Wednesday Night...Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet.
Friday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 6:44a.m. 7:36p.m.
High: 2:20p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.62'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Low: 44
Normal Low: 51
Record Low: 28-1913
High: 73
Normal High: 71
Record High: 90-2008
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 3.91"
Normal Month to Date: 1.70"
Year to Date: 10.57"
Normal Year to Date: 10.50"
Record: 2.10"- 1896
Significant Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 51
High: 76
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 43
High: 70
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 46
High: 76
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:22a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 7:22p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:52a.m.-7:52p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Full Moon- Saturday March 19
Last Quarter- Saturday March 26
New Moon- Sunday April 3
First Quarter- Monday April 11
Have a great Wednesday! God Bless!
-DM
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