President's Day
Before I get started, I want to apologize. I am a bit under the weather, so while there is a blog entry there is no video and the blog will be in short form until I am back to 100%. Sorry for the inconvenience.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The status quo continued on this President's Day. The prolonged period of unseasonably warm and humid weather rolls on playing the same song and same verse for yet another day. Morning low clouds and fog gave away to a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures were generally in the lower 60s this morning while afternoon highs reached the middle 70s yet again. This is well above normal for the middle to latter stages of February. Relative tranquility continues tonight as the forecast are remains under the influence of a long, fetch Southerly flow. Mid and upper level ridging remains in place as well. The weather will be changing slightly over the next 24 hours. A weak Pacific cold front is currently in transit. This front will translate SE through the overnight hours. There is a slight chance for some showers in the pre-frontal environment tonight into Tuesday as the front slides into the forecast area. Dynamics are lacking, and it is the lifting mechanism itself that will generate the possibility of a few showers. The best chance for any showers will come after midnight through about sunrise Tuesday. The front will slow down as it moves into and through the forecast area. The front will run out of upper level support as it nears the coast Tuesday morning, thus the boundary should stall near the coast. A chance for a few showers near the boundary will exist for Tuesday. Temperatures will cool off only slightly behind the front with morning lows in the low to mid 50s for most with readings near 60 near the coast. The weak onshore flow will transition to an offshore flow in the wake of the front.
Slightly cooler and slightly drier air will be in store for Tuesday in the wake of the front. Cloudiness will hang around with the flailing front in the vicinity, and some spotty showers are possible near the coast where deeper moisture will be present. Further inland, north of I-10, a nice day with more sun than clouds is expected as weak ridging develops behind the front. High temperatures will be slightly cooler but still above normal. Expect temperatures to wind up in the 65-70 degree range. This period of dry air will be brief. The weak area of high pressure will continue to be in control for Tuesday night with temperatures well down into the 50s. Skies should generally be Clear to Partly Cloudy depending upon where you are in the forecast area. The fickle frontal boundary will fizzle out as the process of frontlysis occurs near the coast. The surface flow will remain offshore will a general Easterly flow in place. Moisture return will be prevalent on Wednesday as the weak surface high slides Eastward. We will be in between weather systems on Wednesday. Onshore breezes will translate the deeper surface moisture back into the area, and conditions will be similar to what we have been experiencing lately. There will be a chance of morning fog, and low clouds will be prevalent for the balance of the day. Some peaks of sun are expected in the afternoon. Afternoon highs will reach the lower 70s, and I couldn't rule out the possibility of some air mass showers with the deeper moisture returning. However, don't expect a big rain event by any means.
More changes are in the offing as we head into the latter half of the week on Thursday. A second, stronger cold front will be moving our way. Now, by stronger I mean, stronger than tonight's front. This second front will also be of Pacific origin and not have much cold air to work with. The front will have further similarities to its predecessor in that the best dynamics and lifting will be dislocated from our area. We will have a slightly better chance for some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity especially later in the day as the boundary pushes into the region. Moisture levels will increase throughout the day, and skies will generally be Mostly Cloudy. Fog doesn't look to be too much of an issue with increased atmospheric mixing in place as a result of the advancing front. Morning lows will be near 60, while afternoon highs easily climb back toward the mid 70s. Rain chances stand at 40% for the afternoon and evening hours Thursday, so you could get wet on your evening commute as the boundary moves in and begins to displace the rich tropical moisture in place. Timing issues are still present with respect to the actual arrival of the front, but right now it seems as though frontal passage in immediate SW Louisiana will occur overnight. The front will usher in a fresh Pacific air mass as we head into Friday. A renewed area of high pressure will build in behind the departing front. Rain chances will come to an end early Friday as the high pressure is established. Rapid clearing is expected Friday. The air mass will be noticeably drier, but not really much cooler. In fact, high temperatures may actually be warmer on Friday than that of Thursday because of the drier air in place. Expect maximums to range from the mid to upper 70s Friday. It will feel quite nice with an offshore breeze.
There is a lot going on this coming weekend especially as we approach the culmination of Mardi Gras in a couple weeks. High pressure will be present to start the weekend with Saturday looking like a beautiful day as it stands right now. Another Springlike weekend is expected with the Pacific air mass en vogue. Morning lows will from the upper 40s to lower 50s across the forecast area while afternoon highs top out in the lower to middle 70s with low humidity values. Translation...perfect! The controlling high will shift Eastward during the day, resulting in a reversal of wind direction yet again. The presence of a return flow will be present by afternoon. Humidity values will begin to increase, but with the current timing of weather systems it shouldn't be all that noticeable during the day. Moisture increase will be duly noted by Saturday night with a persistent onshore flow in place. Overnight lows will be several degrees warmer likely only falling into the mid 50s at best. Sunday should start dry, but moisture will continue to increase as the day wears on. Another cold front will be approaching at this time, and rain chances will be highlighted for the afternoon and evening time frame once again. This looks to be the most likely time for enough lifting and decent dynamics to move into place to generate this potential for rain. We need the rain, so we'll take whatever we can get. That being said, it is too soon to determine if this will be a more favorable set up for a widespread rain event. Unseasonable warmth is expected for Sunday with highs in the 70s easily amassed once again.
The next cold front, which looks to be the strongest of the three highlighted in this forecast period, will cross the forecast area on Monday to close out the month of February. The inserted rain chances from Sunday will carry over into Monday as the deeper moisture gets scoured out as the sharper frontal boundary slides into the maritime tropical air mass in place. Plenty of clouds are expected with the chance for at least scattered convection. Models have wavered on the possibility of organized convection with the potential for severe weather as a surface low develops out ahead of the approaching front and sharpening trough. This solution is certainly plausible, and is not entirely discounted. However, with the usual uncertainties that exist with a forecast this far out it is not necessary to place our bets on that just yet. Instead, the best course of action is to highlight a chance for showers & thunderstorms with conditions improving through the day. The general consensus at this stage of the game is for fropa to occur between the pre-dawn hours and about mid-morning Monday. High pressure will quickly become established with a faster upper level low in place. Morning lows will generally be in the middle 50s, while afternoon highs slide back a few degrees with the cooler and drier air mass filtering in. Highs will reach near 70 on average, with some locations not getting out of the 60s. It is hard to believe we will be starting March already next week, and right now it looks like March may stat off on a quiet note contrary to what weather folklore suggests. Nearly perfect Spring weather is expected just beyond this forecast period with lows dropping back into the 40s while afternoon highs top out close to normal levels. Models show a bit of an unsettled pattern for the first week or March, so we'll see how that pans out in the days ahead.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 55/68 56/72 61/74 20 20 10 20 20 40
LFT 57/69 55/71 60/75 20 20 10 20 20 40
BPT 55/70 58/73 62/73 20 20 10 20 20 40
AEX 50/65 48/71 55/72 20 10 10 20 20 40
POE 51/66 49/72 56/73 20 10 10 20 20 40
ARA 58/70 56/70 62/73 20 20 10 20 20 40
Tonight...Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers mainly after midnight. Turning Cooler in the pre-dawn hours. Low 55. SSW 10-15 mph becoming WNW 10 mph before sunrise.
Tuesday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. Cooler. High 68. North wind 10 mph.
Tuesday Night...Partly to Mostly Cloudy. Low 56. East wind 5 mph.
Wednesday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. High 72. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday Night...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. Low 61. SSE wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday...Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers & thunderstorms mainly after about 3p.m. High 74. SSW wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday 2/22/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 55
Rain: 20%
Wind: WNW 9
9a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 59
Rain: 20%
Wind: NNW 12
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 63
Rain: 20%
Wind: N 8
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 68
Rain: 20%
Wind: N 8
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 64
Rain: 10%
Wind: ENE 7
9p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 61
Rain: 10%
Wind: E 5
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Tuesday
2-22-11
Low: 55
High: 68
Rain: 20%
Wind: N 10
Wednesday
2-23-11
Low: 56
High: 72
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Thursday
2-24-11
Low: 61
High: 74
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSW 10-15
Friday
2-25-11
Low: 53
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10
Saturday
2-26-11
Low: 50
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 10
Sunday
2-27-11
Low: 54
High: 72
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Monday
2-28-11
Low: 58
High: 71
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSW/NNW 15-20
...Marine Forecast...
*Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 6a.m. Tuesday.*
Tonight...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Patchy fog late in the evening...then areas of fog after midnight.
Tuesday...East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Patchy fog. Isolated showers.
Tuesday Night...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight. Patchy fog.
Wednesday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Thursday...South winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Have a great Monday Night & Tuesday, and once again my apologies for the condensed blog.
God bless!
-DM-
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