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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Is it May or March? It felt more like March on this early May day in the wake of a rather strong late season cold front. Beneficial rainfall occurred overnight Monday through the early morning hours today. Clouds lingered for much longer into the afternoon hours before skies cleared with high pressure moving in. It was on the breezy side as well as the storm system departed. Temperatures were slow to warm up with CAA and abundant cloud cover this morning, but with plenty of sunshine in place from mid to late afternoon we managed to reach the lower 70s, still below average for early May. Morning lows were in the low to mid 50s across the area, and with the winds it added a bit of an unusual nip to the air for early May. High pressure continues to build in tonight with skies clear over the entire area. Winds will slacken as well, and this will set the stage for maximum radiational cooling. This will result in a very chilly night for this late in the season, in fact, we will flirt with record lows at all reporting sites. Lows will be in the low to mid 40s across the area. The official record low for May 4 is 46 at Lake Charles, and I will forecast 45. Alexandria & Fort Polk will be closer to 40, believe it or not. You will want to grab a sweater or light jacket for first thing Wednesday morning with the cool start. It will be a beautiful morning with crystal clear skies.
No sensible weather is expected through the forecast period. Great weather is in store for Wednesday through Friday. Nothing but sunshine is expected each of those days. Temperatures will remain below normal even for highs Wednesday with mid to upper 70s. Humidity values will be on the extremely low side with strong surface high pressure locked in place over the NW Gulf Coast. Moderation begins Wednesday night, but it will still be on the cool side with lows generally a few degrees warmer with mid 40s to near 50 expected. Surface winds will remain light, and offshore. The sunny skies and low humidity air w/ pleasant temperature regime will roll on for Thursday. Highs will be a few ticks warmer, back into the lower 80s or so. Winds will remain from an offshore direction meaning the recovery of dew points and humidity will be slowed. The return flow will not show up until Friday afternoon. It will still be a fantastic day Friday with plenty of sunshine and still pleasant humidity. Low temperatures will be below normal yet again with readings in the low to mid 50s, but highs will be back to near normal to slightly above normal in the low to mid 80s. A light return flow commences in the afternoon as the controlling high pressure slides far enough Eastward to bend our winds around Gulfward once again. Humidity values will be a bit higher, but it will still feel comfortable by early May standards in SW Louisiana.
Heading into the weekend, a return to a typical early May weather pattern is expected. The high pressure will slide further Eastward, but mid and upper level ridging will prevail keeping us high and dry. Temperatures and humidity will increase each day as the Southerly flow becomes more pronounced and pulls up deeper Gulf moisture into the area. Mid 50s to around 60 are expected for lows on Saturday with readings in the upper 60s for Sunday as the warm up progresses. Afternoon highs will easily surpass the 80 degree threshold, and work their way up towards the hot category. Mid 80s are expected both Saturday and Sunday. A decent amount of sunshine is expected for the weekend with some clouds mixed in. The mid and upper level ridging will keep us day, so the weather will just be fine for anything you have planned outdoors, be it attending Contraband Days or just taking mom out for Mother's Day after church on Sunday. Persistent prevails as we round out this forecast period on Monday and Tuesday of next week. No mention of rain is expected with an overall dry pattern continuing thanks to strengthening mid and upper level high pressure. All large scale weather systems will remain to the North of Louisiana, and our persistent onshore flow will continue. Morning lows will rise into the lower 70s while afternoon highs head up close to 90. I suspect many inland locations will hit or surpass 90 by Tuesday. It will certainly be a free preview of summer with tons of humidity, and a typical sun and cloud mix. The only thing that will remain absent from making it the usual summer pattern we're accustomed to will be the scattered showers & storms. Peering into long range, there doesn't appear anymore large scale weather systems for awhile, but we might have some opportunity for scattered afternoon convection towards the latter half of next week.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 45/78 49/81 52/84 0 0 0 0 0 0
CAM 51/75 55/78 58/77 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 46/78 48/81 52/83 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 48/78 50/80 53/82 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 47/80 51/82 54/84 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 40/74 45/78 49/83 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 41/75 45/79 50/83 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Clear & Cool w/ Record Lows Expected. Low 45. Light North wind.
Wednesday...Sunny. High 78. North wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear & Cool. Low 49. Light NE wind.
Thursday...Sunny. High 81. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear. Low 52. East wind 5-10 mph.
Friday...Sunny. High 84. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Friday Night...Clear & Warmer. Low 59. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Saturday...Partly Cloudy. High 85. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Saturday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 66. SSE wind 10 mph.
Sunday...Partly Cloudy. High 88. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday 5/4/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear & Cool
Temp: 45
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 3
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 60
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 71
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 8
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 8
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNE 4
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
5-4-11
Low: 45
High: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Thursday
5-5-11
Low: 49
High: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Friday
5-6-11
Low: 52
High: 84
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
Saturday
5-7-11
Low: 59
High: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Sunday
5-8-11
Mother's Day
Low: 66
High: 88
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Monday
5-9-11
Low: 71
High: 90
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Tuesday
5-10-11
Low: 72
High: 91
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
*Small Craft Advisory in effect Wednesday.*
Tonight...Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet after midnight. Isolated showers early in the evening.
Wednesday...Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday...East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
Thursday Night...South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet subsiding to 1 foot after midnight.
Friday...East winds around 5 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.
Friday Night...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday...South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.
Sunday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 10:43a.m. 10:31p.m.
High: 5:52a.m. 2:17p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.30'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Friday, May 3, 2011
Low: 53
Normal Low: 62
Record Low: 45-1929
High: 71
Normal High: 81
Record High: 96-1984
Rainfall
Today: 0.19"
Month to Date: 0.42"
Normal Month to Date: 0.49"
Year to Date: 14.50"
Normal Year to Date: 16.47"
Record: 4.16"- 2000
Significant Weather Observed:
Thunderstorm
Heavy Rain
Light Rain
Rain
Fog
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 60
High: 95
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 67
High: 85
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 65
High: 84
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:27a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 7:52p.m.
Hunting Times:
5:57a.m.-8:22p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Tuesday May 10
Full Moon- Tuesday May 17
Last Quarter- Tuesday May 24
New Moon- Wednesday June 1
Have a great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-
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