SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion…It was another day with the same results from a weather standpoint. The relative tranquility continues across SW Louisiana with very warm, humid, & windy conditions persisting. This is rather benign weather compared to what our neighbors to the North have been enduring in the previous days. Our thoughts & prayers are with all of them. The windy conditions are about the only local effects from these advancing vigorous disturbances that have been producing the killer tornado outbreaks. Our drought will only worsen in the coming days as we head towards meteorological summer next week. The above normal temperature scheme will remain a constant as well. Morning lows have been running in the mid 70s on average, while afternoon highs have flirted with 90 for several days now, and that was certainly no exception on this Wednesday. Mid and upper level high pressure is the current driving force behind our prolonged precip-free pattern. A large surface high is locked in place to our East over the Southeast Atlantic Ocean. This is for all intents & purposes a summer pattern minus the afternoon convective activity we rely on for the lion share’s of our rainfall this time of year.
The same weather conditions will prevail until further notice. The winds will die off overnight as the loss of daytime heating generates a decreased amount of atmospheric mixing. Mild & humid weather will be present as we head into the latter half of the work week with mid to upper 70s for Thursday morning lows. Of course, it will be warmer at the coast with the usual marine influences in place. Skies will waver between Partly and Mostly Cloudy. It looks to be another long and potential violent night for our neighbors to the North with another tornado outbreak expected. Our only glimmer of hope for rain chances over the next week looks to come in the short-term. The series of disturbances will push a weakening cold front to the SE across the country as they emanate Eastward. The cold front will be driven by a large upper level low pinwheeling across the Mid West. This front will have enough of a push to move across the forecast area Thursday afternoon. This could act to increase lift just enough due to a slight erosion of the mid and upper level cap to spark off some widely scattered showers & storms. The severe threat will remain North of our forecast area. Tornado Watches currently extend from the Northern half of Louisiana all the way through much of the Mid West to the Great Lakes Region. Any rain we receive will by no means be anything of significance, and certainly not even begin to put a dent in the worsening drought. A slightest of slight 20% chance is mentioned for tonight through Thursday just in case, but if you do get some rain consider yourself mighty lucky. Otherwise, it’ll be the same ole same ole with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s again with a general mix of sun and clouds expected for Thursday. It shouldn’t be quite as windy as the main impetus of the storm system slides further away allowing for a decreasing pressure differential. This weak late season cold front won't do much for our overall weather pattern either. It may allow for some slightly cooler & drier air to move in briefly for Friday morning, before the deeper Gulf moisture returns just in time for the holiday weekend.
Ho hum weather prevails for Friday through the balance of the Memorial Day weekend. May looks to end on a very dry & hot note early next week. The upper level ridge will re-build and strengthen beginning Friday through the weekend; once again assuring that rain chances will be next to nothing. Temperatures will be reflected as well with morning lows remaining in the 74-78 range while afternoon highs reach and exceed the 90 degree threshold for the first time this season on a consistent basis. Heat indices will approach the 100 degree mark as well given the high humidity values. The weather will certainly cooperate for any outdoor plans you may have, but remember to properly protect yourself from long exposure to sunlight. The persistent onshore flow won’t be going anywhere, but at least it shouldn’t be crazy windy like it has been in recent days. That strong South wind has been our saving grace thus far, otherwise it would already feel unbearable. The main storm track will remain locked in place well to our North as the upper level ridging (588 mb. circle) builds across the Gulf rim. We will enter into meteorological summer, and the first day of the 2011 Hurricane Season on Wednesday at the end of the forecast period. The weather will match the time of year perfectly as the quietude continues. Get used to it SW Louisiana, we have moved into our long, miserable summer season. Hopefully, we can shake the drought at some point in the near future. The main weather issue across Louisiana will continue to be the ongoing hydrologic disaster with river flooding in the Atchafalaya and Mississippi River basins. Even though, the flooding may not have been as bad as originally expected, the flood waters will remain high at least through June in the lower Mississippi and Atchafalaya Basins, and the persistent Southerly flow won’t help the water drain out into the Gulf any faster.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 75/89 72/91 75/91 20 20 10 0 0 0
CAM 79/84 78/85 79/85 20 20 10 0 0 0
LFT 75/90 72/92 76/91 20 20 10 0 0 0
ARA 76/88 76/90 76/89 20 20 10 0 0 0
BPT 76/91 76/91 77/92 20 20 10 0 0 0
JAS 72/92 68/92 71/92 30 20 10 0 0 0
AEX 71/92 65/93 70/94 30 20 10 0 0 0
POE 72/91 66/92 71/93 30 20 10 0 0 0
Tonight…Partly Cloudy w/ a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low 75. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday…Partly to Mostly Cloudy w/ a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. High 89. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Thursday Night…Partly Cloudy. Low 72. SSW wind 10 mph.
Friday…Partly Cloudy. High 91. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Friday Night…Partly Cloudy. Low 75. SSE wind 5-10 mph.
Saturday…Partly Cloudy. High 91. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Saturday Night…Partly Cloudy. Low 76. SSE wind 5-10 mph.
Sunday…Partly Cloudy. High 90. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Sunday Night…Partly Cloudy. Low 77. SSE wind 5-10 mph.
Memorial Day…Partly Cloudy & Hot. High 92. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday 5/26/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 75
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 12
9a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 80
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 13
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 84
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 16
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 89
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 18
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 14
9p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 10
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Thursday
5-26-11
Low: 75
High: 89
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 93-98
Friday
5-27-11
Low: 72
High: 91
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 93-98
Saturday
5-28-11
Low: 75
High: 91
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 93-98
Sunday
5-29-11
Low: 76
High: 90
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
Monday
5-30-11
Memorial Day
Low: 77
High: 92
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
Tuesday
5-31-11
Low: 75
High: 92
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
Wednesday
6-1-11
2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins
Low: 76
High: 93
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 97-102
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday Night...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Saturday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 4 feet after midnight.
Sunday...Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Sunday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Monday...Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
...Tide Data...
Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 5:22a.m. 6:14p.m.
High: 11:04a.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
163.55'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Low: 78
Normal Low: 68
Record Low: 51-1913
High: 87
Normal High: 86
Record High: 94-1941
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.43"
Normal Month to Date: 4.80"
Year to Date: 14.51"
Normal Year to Date: 20.78"
Record: 2.71"- 1986
Significant Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 69
High: 93
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 71
High: 87
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 66
High: 87
Rain: Trace
Sunrise Thursday: 6:14a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 8:06p.m.
Hunting Times:
5:44a.m.-8:36p.m.
...Lunar Table...
New Moon- Wednesday June 1
First Quarter- Thursday June 9
Full Moon- Wednesday June 15
Last Quarter- Thursday June 23
Have a great Thursday & God Bless!
-DM-
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