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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...It's premature to say it's summer in SW Louisiana, but it sure feels like it. Meteorological summer is a few weeks away, and we're still over a month from the official first day of summer. This free preview of summer will remain in place over the short term, but there are some changes to discuss as we head towards the second full weekend of May. Today was another warm & humid day with plenty of sunshine in place. Morning lows were on the mild side with readings in the low to mid 70s, not unlike that of previous days. High temperatures reached the upper 80s to lower 90s. Of course, the warmest locations were well inland from the coast with the persistent onshore flow across the area. Cloud cover was limited in the afternoon hours with strong ridging in the mid and upper levels firmly entrenched across the region. The same weather pattern will hold through Wednesday with another quiet but warm & humid night tonight. Clear skies will prevail with lows down into the lower 70s yet again. A general mix of sun and clouds is on tap for Wednesday with highs around 90 once again. There will likely be a bout of morning low clouds, and maybe some patchy fog, but that will scour out quickly with enhanced mixing due to winds & heating. These same conditions will carry over into Thursday before the advertised changes occur.
The mid and upper level ridge begins to break down on Thursday as it feels the influence of a strong late season trough that will be advancing into the Red River Valley. This trough will send a cold front into Central Texas. This will begin to increase surface moisture across the area, and as a result more cloud cover is expected. The forecast area should remain dry for the most part during the day Thursday as the deepest moisture pools closer to the front across Texas. Some scattered shower & isolated thunderstorm activity is expected by late in the day Thursday with deeper moisture pooling into SW Louisiana in advance of said cold front. It will remain warm & humid with highs in the upper 80s once again after morning lows in the lower 70s in the pre-frontal environment. Skies will range from Partly Cloudy to Mostly Cloudy as the day wears on. Better chances for rain & some thunderstorms enter the fray in the Thursday night-Friday time frame with the front nudging into our area. It will be a slow moving front, but as it impinges on the forecast area moisture will continue to pool with the enhanced onshore flow. As a result some scattered showers & storms are expected to develop overnight Thursday into Friday morning. This doesn't look like a widespread rain event, or a significant one but we'll take whatever we can get at this juncture. The period of Thursday night-Friday morning will certainly bring about the best opportunity for rain this period at would appear.
We are near the end of severe weather season here in South Louisiana, and while it can certainly still occur here in the middle portion of May, it doesn't seem like there will be much of that to contend with this go around. There will be some dynamics and sufficient instability, but even so the main thrust of the energy with this system will bypass SW Louisiana. It is conceivable that there will be the chance for a few storms to reach severe limits especially between sunrise and noon Friday when daytime heating will be thrown into the equation. The main threat from any severe weather would be hail given the amount of cold air aloft this system will have to work with. The front will have no trouble pushing through the forecast area, even though it will lose some of its forward momentum as it travels towards the Gulf Coast. The front should enter the coastal waters Friday afternoon, thus rain chances will come to an end as a much drier & cooler air mass filters into the region. Rainfall totals will leave a lot to be desired with average QPF of an inch or less for a drought strickened SW Louisiana. The excess cloudiness associated with the cold front will be on its way out Friday afternoon and evening with clear skies and pleasant air in place by day's end. Morning lows will be on the warm side for one more morning with lows generally in the upper 60s to around 70 while afternoon highs may actually be a few degrees warmer because of increased sunshine & subsidence behind the boundary. Highs could top 90 even here along the I-10 corridor. It really won't be until Friday night that you'll notice the cooler, refreshing air mass.
The timing of this front will set the stage for at least one more nice weekend before the onset of our prolonged summer season here in the Deep South. High pressure establishes itself in the wake of the late Spring cold front giving us great weather for the remainder of the forecast period. Plenty of sunshine is on tap each day Saturday through Tuesday. Low humidity air and pleasantly warm afternoons are anticipated with a refreshing start to the day. Saturday morning lows will be near 60, but even cooler air moves in by Sunday morning pushing lows into the 50s (below normal) through Tuesday thanks to a deep NW flow aloft that will be established with Friday's front. The deep troughiness over the Eastern 2/3 of the nation will negate any shot of a return flow until sometime next week, therefore, we'll see a continuance of the nice weather. Highs will still make it into the 80s, but be closer to 80 as opposed to 90 across the area. Humidity values will be in the 20-30% range each day. A breezy North wind is expected behind the front for Friday and Saturday before high pressure takes a firm grip on the area both at the surface & aloft sequestering winds to the light category Sunday-Tuesday. The quiet weather regime will continue for the balance of next week with no other large scale weather systems on the horizon. The main weather concern (more like a hydrological event, than meteorology really, but the two are intertwined in this case) for our state in the coming days will be the potential for record flooding along the Mississippi & Atchafalaya River Basins. This flooding is as a result of heavy rainfall in recent weeks that occurred upstream, and not so much in Louisiana. Remember, as a general rule our state is in drought conditions, so it is the rainfall from elsewhere that will flood some areas along our major rivers even though we're in this drought. More information on this flood event is forthcoming tomorrow.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 72/88 72/87 73/88 0 0 0 20 40 40
CAM 76/84 75/83 76/86 0 0 0 20 40 40
LFT 72/89 73/88 72/90 0 0 0 20 40 40
ARA 73/87 74/86 73/88 0 0 0 20 40 40
BPT 73/90 72/89 72/91 0 0 0 20 40 30
AEX 69/92 68/92 67/88 0 0 0 20 40 40
POE 69/92 68/91 68/88 0 0 0 20 40 40
Tonight...Mostly Clear. Low 72. SSE wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday...Partly Cloudy. High 88. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Wednesday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 72. SSE wind 10 mph.
Thursday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy w/ a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. High 87. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Thursday Night...Mostly Cloudy w/ a 40% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Isolated severe storms possible. Low 73. SSW wind 15 mph and gusty.
Friday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy w/ a 40% chance of showers & thunderstorms in the morning. Isolated severe storms possible. Clearing w/ much drier air in place in the afternoon . High 88. SSW wind 15-20 mph & gusty in the morning, becoming NNW 15-20 mph and gusty in the afternoon.
Friday Night...Clear & Cooler. Low 60. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Saturday...Sunny. High 82. NNW wind 10 mph.
Saturday Night...Clear & Cool. Low 57. NNW wind 5-10 mph.
Sunday...Sunny. High 81. North wind 10 mph.
Wednesday 5/11/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear & Humid
Temp: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 7
9a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 79
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 12
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 84
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 16
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 88
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 18
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 17
9p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 12
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
5-11-11
Low: 72
High: 88
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 90-95
Thursday
5-12-11
Low: 73
High: 87
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 90-95
Friday
5-13-11
Low: 73
High: 88
Rain: 40% A.M.
Wind: SSW/NNW 15-20
H.I.: 88-93
Saturday
5-14-11
Low: 60
High: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Sunday
5-15-11
Low: 57
High: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
Monday
5-16-11
Low: 55
High: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Tuesday
5-17-11
Low: 56
High: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday Night...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday Night...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday Night...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday...North winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 3:30a.m. 5:02p.m.
High: 10:45a.m. 10:16p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
163.83'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
Low: 72
Normal Low: 64
Record Low: 48-1923
High: 87
Normal High: 83
Record High: 93-2002
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.42"
Normal Month to Date: 1.75"
Year to Date: 14.50"
Normal Year to Date: 17.73"
Record: 3.01"- 1974
Significant Weather Observed:
Fog
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 69
High: 87
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 72
High: 85
Rain: 0.04"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 63
High: 82
Rain: 0.01"
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:22a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 7:57p.m.
Hunting Times:
5:52a.m.-8:27p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Tonight May 10
Full Moon- Tuesday May 17
Last Quarter- Tuesday May 24
New Moon- Wednesday June 1
Have a great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-
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