Video blogs return next week.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...I already miss the nearly perfect weather we experienced earlier in the week, and we have a long summer ahead of us. We will certainly be experiencing a free preview of summer for the foreseeable future. The persistent drought conditions will only worsen as well, with no sign of any significant rain chances through the period. However, our only glimmer of hope for any rainfall is on the horizon in the short-term. Explicit details concerning this are coming up momentarily. First, here's where we stand as of press time. Thursday was a day that featured a good deal of cloud cover as the return flow intensified across the area. This return flow ushered in significant amounts of low level moisture which in turn created much higher humidity values. Temperatures warmed into the upper 80s for most locations with the usual exceptions. The winds were the big story with SSE winds over 20 mph at times continuing to elevate the fire danger across a very drought stricken SW Louisiana and SE Texas. The mugginess of mid May will be here for the foreseeable future, and the temperature modification will continues as well. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s across the forecast area with Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies on tap. The onshore flow will continue in a much weaker state that it was this afternoon.
As I hinted at briefly a few moments ago, the only real opportunity for some much needed rainfall will come in the short term...mainly Friday afternoon and evening. The overall atmospheric conditions will only change slightly, but we will have the potential for some convective activity on Friday afternoon. It will be a warm, windy, & humid day regardless of if it rains or not. However, there is a large storm system moving across the country at present which is sparking off a severe weather episode once again tonight for portions of the Great Plains. As the system moves further East Friday, some additional Jet Stream energy will feed into the system. A few disturbances embedded in a SW flow aloft over our area will emanate NE on Friday. The first one should move by a bit too far to the North to do anything for us.
The mid and upper level ridging will hold firm until later in the day, before it weakens slightly as the second perturbation ejects. This one is forecast to take a track a bit further South, bringing it closer to the forecast area. Therefore, it may have enough energy available to help interrupt the present cap. This combined with daytime heating, may very well result in some scattered showers & thunderstorms from late afternoon into the overnight hours. Certainly, not everyone will see rain, and amounts will vary greatly from one location to the next. This will by no means alleviate the drought conditions in place, but it does offer us at least a chance. High temperatures will approach the 90 degree threshold, and rain chances will be mentioned across the entire forecast area. The best chances will be across the Northern portions of the area because they will be in closer proximity to the evacuating short wave. A line of showers/storms will likely emerge over Texas ahead of the dry line during the day Friday, and push Eastward towards the forecast area, and be weakening in the process as they move closer to a more stable environment. The severe weather threat is very minimal, but given the time of the year a robust storm or two can't be ruled out. The main threat would be damaging winds and some hail. The tornado threat is non-existent given the lack of wind shear. I will not mention the possibility of severe weather at this point, and the small rain chances should suffice for now.
The weekend looks quiet. The SW-NE moving short wave will push on by overnight into Saturday morning. This will bring rain chances to an end, and we will be left with pretty much a standard early summer scenario. Partly Cloudy skies are expected throughout the weekend. It should remain breezy as well with onshore breezes over 20 mph at times in response to the advancing storm systems and the inflow these systems create. Morning low temperatures will average the lower 70s while afternoon highs tease the 90 degree mark. There may be times when it will look like it wants to rain, but the mid and upper level ridging will re-establish itself in the wake of Friday's short wave assuring that there will be virtually no vertical growth of the clouds necessary to generate thunderstorms. It will be a good weekend for any outdoor plans you may have, but if your plans take you out for a prolonged period of time or near the water be sure to properly protect yourself from the strong May sun. Sunday will be a virtual carbon copy of Saturday. Winds might be a little lighter Sunday as this latest storm system pulls away.
Next week should feature more of the same with virtually no change in the weather through Wednesday. Mid and upper level ridging processes will hold firm, and create rising heights above the surface. This should result in temperatures exceeding 90 for highs each day, and morning lows will remain in the low to mid 70s area wide. The only thing keeping this from being a true South Louisiana summer pattern will be lack of scattered afternoon convection. Surface high pressure anchored to our East will steer all major storm systems well to the North of the area. This pattern is known as the Bermuda High pattern, and is our prevailing pattern during the summer months. The only concerns will continue to be the worsening drought situation and the ongoing river flooding in the Atchafalaya and Mississippi River basins. The worst of the flooding is expected to arrive sometime next week along the Atchafalaya Basin. Stay tuned for more on that. Rain chances may return at the end of the forecast period on Thursday when another strong late Spring storm will be traversing the contiguous 48 states. Models differ on the eventual track of this system, but there are hints it may track further South increasing its impacts on our area. This could bring a cold front through the area, but the jury is still out on that idea. There is enough agreement at this time to insert rain chances into the forecast for Thursday, but nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year. The summerlike temperatures will continue until further notice.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 73/87 74/89 75/90 0 30 30 10 0 0
CAM 77/83 77/84 78/84 0 30 30 10 0 0
LFT 72/88 74/90 75/91 0 30 30 10 0 0
ARA 74/86 75/87 75/87 0 30 30 10 0 0
BPT 75/89 75/90 76/90 0 30 30 10 0 0
JAS 70/90 71/90 71/92 0 40 30 20 0 0
AEX 70/91 71/91 72/92 0 40 30 20 0 0
POE 71/90 71/91 73/92 0 40 30 20 0 0
Tonight...Partly to Mostly Cloudy. Low 73. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Friday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. High 87. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Friday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low 74. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Saturday...Partly Cloudy. High 89. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Saturday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 75. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Sunday...Partly Cloudy. High 90. SSE wind 10-20 mph & gusty.
Sunday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 75. South wind 10-15 mph.
Monday...Partly Cloudy. High 91. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Monday Night...Partly Cloudy. High 74. SSE wind 10 mph.
Tuesday...Partly Cloudy. High 91. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Friday 5/20/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 11
9a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 79
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 14
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 83
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 18
3p.m.
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Some Scattered Storms
Temp: 87
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 20
6p.m.
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Some Scattered Activity
Temp: 83
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 17
9p.m.
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Still Some Scattered Storms Around
Temp: 81
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 15
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
5-20-11
Low: 73
High: 87
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 90-95
Saturday
5-21-11
Low: 74
High: 89
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 93-98
Sunday
5-22-11
Low: 75
High: 90
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-20
H.I.: 92-97
Monday
5-23-11
Low: 75
High: 91
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
Tuesday
5-24-11
Low: 74
High: 91
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 95-100
Wednesday
5-25-11
Low: 75
High: 92
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 95-100
Thursday
5-26-11
Low: 75
High: 90
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 95-100
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Friday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
Saturday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
Saturday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday Night...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Monday...South winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Monday Night...South winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday...South winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Have a great Friday & weekend! God bless!
-DM-
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