More on Hurricane Preparedness...

Thursday, May 26, 2011

The blog entries focusing on hurricane preparedness continue.

There is so much to discuss with respect to hurricanes. Earlier today, I discussed some of the basic terms associated with hurricane season, as well as, some changes in issuing forecasts, and a look at the list of names for the 2011 season. I also described in detail each category of the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.  This time I will focus on what to do before, during, and after the storm as well as what to expect this season, and take a look back at some hurricane climatology.

First, here are some important point to remember for before the storm:

You should have a plan of action in place for you & your family. It is important to discuss what you will do & where you will go in the event a hurricane threaten. The time to do this is now, don't wait until the storm is within striking distance.

When a hurricane is approaching, you will want to prepare your home and business from the strong winds associated with the storm. Do this by boarding up your doors and windows. Putting tape on your windows is not advisable. You should also determine if your home or business is at risk for storm surge.

If you decide to stay at home, determine where the safest place is for you to ride out the storm in your home. If you have a safe room, you should get some essentials and go there until the storm is over.

Make sure to review your insurance policies, and know what types of insurance you have (i.e. home owner's, etc.) Make sure you have your proof of insurance on hand if you evacuate.

Protect your valuables and irreplaceables, such as family photos. It is advisable to store them in plastic garbage bags to prevent damage. If you evacuate, it is strongly suggested to take them with you.

If you plan to evacuate, plan out your route well in advance, to avoid being delayed by traffic. Also, know where you are going to go, and make sure you have plenty of gas & cash available because services will likely be cut off in the impact zone, and you may have to stay away for days.

If you plan to stay at home, make sure to hoard away non-perishable food items & gas. You should also have a good allotment of cash on hand with the expectation that all utilities and services will be unavailable for an extended period.

Essential items to stock up on include: non-perishable food items, bottled water, batteries for flashlights, radios, and TVs, and a NOAA Weather Radio is a very essential item because it will keep you updated with official information from the National Weather Service. Stock up on first aid supplies as well. Plan for 1-2 weeks without the basics.

Persons living in a flood zone or along the coast should without question evacuate. These are the areas most at risk for storm surge flooding and the worst of the winds. You should prepare your property for the storm as best as you can, and leave as soon as or before the evacuation order is given.

Don't forget to think of your pets...Most out of town shelters won't allow animals, so it will be very vital for you to have a place to bring your pets to keep them sheltered from the storm.

During the storm:

It is strongly discouraged that you remain in the area during a hurricane, but if you do, by all means stay sheltered in your safe haven until the storm is over. Do not venture outside out of curiousity, or for any reason whatsoever. The strong winds are dangerous & potentially deadly if you exposed to them because of flying debris and falling trees and power lines.

Stay tuned to your local radio, TV, and/or NOAA Weather Radio for continual information updates & forecasts. They will notify you when it is safe enough to venture outside and do a storm assessment.


After the storm:

Keep listening to NOAA Weather Radio and other media outlets either by battery-powered radio or TV if you are in town, or via the internet if you have evacuated. They will keep you informed of what is going on at home, and when it will be safe to return.

Please wait until local law enforcement & emergency management officials give you credence to return...wait until the all clear is given.

When returning home, avoid any roads that are flooded, blocked, or barricaded. There may be danger ahead in the form of fallen trees and power lines or post-storm flooding.

When you return home, assess your property for damage. Carefully check your gas, water, & electrical lines for damage. If you have damage to report, call the proper authorities to get assistance as soon as possible.

Do not drink water or use water to prepare food until it is deemed safe. It is essential to make sure your tap water is not contaminated.

Electricity may still be out when you return home, so only use flashlights for a source of light. Do not use candles or open flames indoors.

Generators are a common source for power after a storm as well. Make sure this is only used outside of your home or office. Do not power up generators inside a dwelling because of the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning.

Only use the phone for life-threatening emergencies. Phone lines will likely be severely damaged, and a high volume of unnecessary calling will only make things worse with respect to the recovery process.

Be extremely careful if operation chainsawing and other storm debris removal equipment. Many post-storm injuries occur from chainsaw accidents.

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Next, here is some hurricane climatology. SW Louisiana has faced its fair share (unfair) of hurricanes over the years. This includes some very influential storms in recent years. There are several documented cases of hurricanes & tropical storms impacting our region to different degrees ever since records have been kept in the 1800s. Hurricane Audrey was the first major hurricane of record in the era since storms have been given names to heavily impact SW Louisiana. This storm used to be the benchmark for all storms on this area, but that changed in 2005 with Rita, which we'll discuss in a moment.

Audrey is the only major hurricane during the month of June to make landfall in the United States. It just so happened that it was lower Cameron Parish that took a direct hit. Audrey, by all accounts, defied the official forecasts, for a slowly intensifying tropical storm to make landfall within a couple days as a hurricane in Cameron Parish. Instead, Audrey underwent a period of rapid intensification and also accelerated leading to the worst loss of life of any natural disaster in our area. Audrey was a very large & intense hurricane with a 40 mile wide eye, and winds of category 4 status at landfall. Winds were estimated to be around 140 mph when the eye came ashore in SW Cameron Parish on Thursday, June 27, 1957. Hurricane force winds occurred across a wide area from SE Texas through SW Louisiana. Winds over 100 mph were experienced in Lake Charles. Over 500 fatalities were directly attributed to Hurricane Audrey. Most of those occurred in Cameron Parish due to the storm surge, however, the official death toll is still not known to this day.

Hurricane Carla impacted our region, although the most severe impacts struck the Middle Texas Coast. Carla's circulation encompassed the entire Gulf of Mexico at one point. It peaked as a category 4 storm, and created a storm surge of 7-8' across SW Louisiana between September 10-12, 1961.

1971 was another year in which a very strong hurricane impacted SW Louisiana. On September 16 of that year, Hurricane Edith, a category 2 made landfall in SE Cameron Parish. Most of the impacts from Edith were experienced across Acadiana with category 1 conditions up into the Lafayette area. The storm surge exceeded 8' in some areas of Cameron and Vermilion Parishes.

3 years later, Hurricane Carmen, another major hurricane with category 3 intensity struck portions of SW Louisiana. The storm made landfall on September 8, 1974 and spread hurricane conditions across much of the same areas as Edith did in 1971. Category 2 conditions were felt across Vermilion and Iberia Parishes with category 1 conditions into the rest of Acadiana. The rest of SW Louisiana experienced tropical storm conditions.

1985 was a very active year for hurricanes in SW Louisiana. In August, minimal hurricane Danny made landfall SE of Lake Charles in Cameron Parish. Minimal damage occurred, and storm surge values were 5-8' along & to the right of the center of the storm from Cameron Parish through Vermilion Parish. Later that same year, a late season hurricane, Juan, impacted and pestered South Louisiana for nearly a week. It struck in the final week of October 1985, and holds the record for being the latest occurring tropical system to strike Louisiana. Juan was certainly more influential than his August predecessor. Juan formed over the Gulf from an old frontal boundary. Juan was a very erratic storm, making two cyclonic loops near the coast of Louisiana. It dumped heavy rainfall across much of the area with upwards of 20" in some spots. Juan eventually moved offshore of SE Louisiana, and moved towards the Florida Panhandle as the calendar turned to November.

Hurricane Andrew was a very bad hurricane in a very quiet year. It is a prime example of the fact that it only takes one storm to make a bad season. In August 1992, August 24, to be exact, Andrew became only the 3rd landfalling category 5 storm in history as it bombarded South Florida with 170 mph winds. Andrew crossed Florida, and emerged into the Gulf in a weakened state, but still a very powerful category 4 storm with winds around 140 mph. Andrew steadily moved towards the Bayou State, and made landfall in the Atchafalaya Delta Degion on Wednesday, August 26 as a major hurricane. Andrew was starting to weaken just before landfall, and was also feeling the influence of am early season cold front which was en route to the Gulf Coast. Andrew was steered right at SW Louisiana for awhile, but a slight change in course further to the East in the last 24 hours before landfall spared SW Louisiana a direct hit. Impacts were minimal here, but points to our East experienced extensive damage including some strong tornadoes with an F3 reported at LaPlace.

It was about another 10 years before significant impacts from a hurricane were experienced in SW Louisiana. Hurricane Lili in October of 2002 made a significant impact on the region. One of the latest storms to strike the state, and one of the most powerful. Lili was an intense category 4 storm with wind of 145 mph about 200 miles offshore of the Louisiana coastline, however, from that point on until its final demise over land near Monroe, Lili started steadily weakening. Meteorological data suggests it was cooler shelf waters just off of the Louisiana coast due to the previous week's Tropical Storm Isidore, that resulted in the weakening of the once powerful Lili. Lili's ultimate landfall came at Intracoastal City in Vermilion Parish on Thursday, October 3, 2002. Much of the heart of SW Louisiana was spared significant impacts, but we certainly received strong tropical storm conditions along with some heavy rainfall. Hurricane conditions were confined to Acadiana, and inland to near Alexandria. Storm surge values in Vermilion Parish exceeded 8' in coastal Vermilion, Iberia, and St. Mary Parishes.

That brings us to the mother of all storms for SW Louisiana...you don't even need me to tell you what it's name was, Hurricane Rita. The historical season of 2005 was by far the worst season on record from a standpoint of impacts on the United States as well. With the images & destruction of Hurricane Katrina still ongoing and forever engraved in our minds, Rita, which at one point, was even stronger than Katrina lurked in the Gulf. The storm formed from a well-organized tropical wave near the Turks & Caicos Islands, and it steadily moved Westward towards Florida in September of 2005. Rita was in an amazingly incredible environment, and rapidly strengthened reaching hurricane status as it neared Florida. Rita moved into the incredibly warm waters of the SE Gulf of Mexico, and continued to strengthen over the coming days. All the while, forecasters had Rita pegged to make landfall as a major hurricane on the Middle Texas Coast, but it was surely to have some impact on SW Louisiana given the actual forecast track. To say that Rita impacted SW Louisiana, would be something short of an understatement. Rita not only impacted the region, it became our benchmark storm.

You see, Rita, didn't behave as forecasters believed she would. Rita was steered by a large are of high pressure along the Gulf Coast. This high began weakening during the week of September 23 as Rita was moving over the warmest portion of the Gulf of Mexico, the Loop Current. Rita veered further to the NW off of its steady W to WNW course, and aimed itself right at SW Louisiana. Rita underwent a period of record intensification with the pressure dropping to an incredible 897 mb. at peak intensity. Winds topped out in excess of 175 as the storm peaked on Wednesday, September 21, 2005. Rita was a category 5, the same as Katrina was 3 weeks prior to. Everyone was on edge, and the largest evacuation ever of SW Louisiana occurred. Nearly everyone in the 5 parish area got out of the storm's way beginning on Thursday the 22nd. A mandatory evacuation was ordered for Calcasieu Parish and for the entire city of Lake Charles for the first time in history. It was feared that Rita would remain a very serious category 4 hurricane until landfall, with the potential to reach the coast as a category 5. However, Rita did weaken, but it was still a major hurricane of category 3 intensity at landfall. Landfall occurred at 2:38a.m. on Saturday, September 24, 2005 near Johnson Bayon in SW Cameron Parish. Rita's official wind speed at landfall was near 120 mph, although there were many gusts reported that were into category 4 range.

Rita's storm surge was 10-15' just to the East of the storm, and this literally obliterated our beautiful coastal towns from Holly Beach and Cameron over to Pecan Island. The storm surge was so bad, that it reached as far North as I-10 in Lake Charles with water from the Gulf backing up the Calcasieu River. Water levels were 6-8' deep in downtown Lake Charles, and storm surge flooding nearly reached the Lake Charles Regional Airport south of town. Extensive wind damage occurred across the entire region from Beaumont to Lafayette. Rita was a huge storm with an extensive wind field, thus hurricane force winds were experienced in the same area mentioned a moment ago, and as far inland as Jasper, TX over to Alexandria. As is always the case with a landfalling tropical system, Rita produced spin off tornadoes along and to the right of the eye. To this day it is unknown how many spin off tornadoes occurred, though there were possibly over 100. Winds in the Lake Area exceeded hurricane force for over 12 hours with 6 of the hours with winds over 100 mph. Tropical storm force winds were experienced for over 24 hours. Tropical storm conditions ensued during the afternoon hours of Friday, September 23, and didn't drop below the 40 mph threshold until late in the day on Saturday the 24th. The center of circulation tracked pretty much right up the Sabine River after landfall, and the eyewall was so big that the Eastern edge of the eyewall moved right over Lake Charles. Places such as Orange and Vinton experienced the virtual calm of the storm. Hurricane Rita was by far the worst natural disaster to ever strike this area, and is now this area's benchmark storm. It has taken parts of the area many years to recover since this powerful hurricane, and coastal Cameron Parish will likely never be the same again. Thankfully, the death toll from Rita was minimal with only 7 indirect fatalities here locally. Much of this is believed to be attributed to the large evacuation that ensued in the preceding days and because of what Hurricane Katrina did to SE Louisiana & South Mississippi.

It had been 48 years since a major hurricane struck SW Louisiana (Audrey in 1957). However, it was only 2 short years later before another history making hurricane affected the area. It was historical from a different standpoint. I am talking about Hurricane Humberto in September of 2007. Humberto formed from an old frontal boundary over the Central Gulf waters, and was upgraded to a Tropical Depression on September 12. Humberto has the distinguished record of taking the shortest amount of time to go from a Tropical Depression to a Hurricane, a mere 12 hours. Humberto was a small, tightly compacted storm, and made landfall as a category 1 storm with 80 mph winds early on the morning of Thursday, September 13, 2007 in Jefferson County in SE Texas (Sea Rim State Park). The center of circulation tracked over the Western half of Calcasieu Parish later in the morning.

A year later, Louisiana experienced another very bad season as 2 significant storms impacted our state. Hurricane Gustav made landfall on Labor Day, September 1, 2008, and was at one time a very powerful category 4 storm that ravaged Cuba. Gustav never regained the stature that it had previously before impacting Cuba, however, it remained a high end category 2, and showed signs of re-strengthening as it approached the SE Louisiana coast near Houma around mid-morning. The eye of Gustav moved virtaully up the Highway 90 corridor towards Lafayette remaining a hurricane until it was near Opelousas. By far, the worst impacts from Gustav were over the Atchafalaya region, but category 1 impacts were felt into much of Acadiana and parts of Central Louisiana. A serious flood event developed as Gustav slowly spun down while moving NW through Cenla and into NW Louisiana. The Lake Area experienced some low end tropical storm conditions with winds in the 40-50 mph range, and some sqaully weather. There was quite a few spin off tornadoes across the Eastern half of the forecast area that added to the damage from Gustav.

Finally, the most recent storm to impact our great state is Hurricane Ike. Ike was a huge storm. It, too was at one time a category 4 storm and also wreaked havoc in Cuba. Ike actually formed in the wide open Atlantic the same day that Gustav made landfall. Ike traveled steadily Westward, and was bound for the Gulf of Mexico. It became evident as Ike moved into the warm waters of the SE Gulf of Mexico, that some impacts would be felt across our region, and it looked like this would be a more significant storm for our area than Gustav was. Little did we know, that would turn out to be right, and then some. Ike was so massive and so slow moving, that it produced record storm surge flooding across nearly the entire state. It threatened to breach the levees which were still being repaired in SE Louisiana. It produced water levels that were a foot or two higher in SW Louisiana, than they were during Hurricane Rita. The storm surge flooding virtually wiped out all of the ongoing rebuilding along the coast. Ike's storm surge resulted in the flooding of more than half of the city of Lake Charles. Many places which didn't flood during Rita, flooded for the first time ever during Ike. Ike made landfall at Galveston early on Saturday, September 13.

While the wind impacts were not nearly as significant across SW Louisiana, hurricane force gusts occurred at Lake Charles with sustained hurricane force winds experienced at Cameron. Highest wind gusts were near 80 mph at Lake Charles, and near 100 mph at Cameron. Ike was a borderline category 3 storm at landfall, and heavily impacted the urban areas of SE Texas. Extensive damage occurred from Galveston to Houston over to Beaumont. Most structures along the coast at Galveston were destroyed. Ike brought the record flooding and some heavy rainfall, and minor structural damage to this forecast area, and also produced one of the largest post-tropical tornado outbreaks across the area. The storm nearly paralleled the coast as its lumbered its way towards Galveston, and that was one of the main reasons why there was a record storm surge. The storm surge flooding across the Gulf Coast was comparable to monster Carla back in 1961, even though Ike's wind intensity didn't even come close to paralleling some of its predecessors at least not at landfall. What you should remember about Rita and Ike is that while they may have weakened some before hitting the coast, they still carried with them a category 4-5 storm surge because it takes longer for the water to calm down than it does for the wind. That is one of the reasons why some modifications were made to the Saffir-Simpson scale.

These are some prime examples of hurricanes that impacted our region. Certainly, we will be impacted again down the road. However, no one knows when that will be. That's why it's essential to always be prepared. We have enjoyed some much needed tropical tranquility across our state for the past two seasons, and hopefully we will do so again this season, but there's no guarantee. This is a great segue into the final portion of these hurricane preparedness blogs.

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It is time to give my thoughts on this upcoming season. As you know, the season begins next Wednesday, June 1, and while that doesn't mean we will see some activity right out of the chute, it does mean it is that time of the year when everyone's predictions are running rampant. It is possible for some early season activity, but every year is different, and so are the atmospheric conditions over the tropical Atlantic basin. It is the atmospheric conditions above the warm waters that dictate what will occur. We are coming out of a La Nina pattern, and that typically means we will have an above average season. That is certainly what the experts at NOAA and Colorado State University suggest. I don't argue that point, their thinking is logical based on two key factors. The first one is the waning La Nina. This La Nina results in wind patterns that keep the Atlantic basin temperatures a bit warmer than average, and warm SSTs above 80 degrees is one of the key ingredients for tropical cyclone formation. The second factor that validates the pre-season forecast is the fact that we remain in a cycle of enhanced tropical cyclone activity. This is quite common with tropical activity, for us to go through a 15-30 year cycle of average to above average seasons, followed by a 15-30 period of below average to average seasons. We began this period of enhanced activity back in the mid 1990s, so again it makes sense.

I am not a big fan of the numbers, because so often people want to focus on the projected numbers, and forget the fact that a number is just irrelevant when it comes to hurricanes. There could be 20 storms, but if all of them have little or no impact on the United States, who remembers them. However, there could be 1 storm for the whole season, and it could be a category 5 with huge implications for wherever it made landfall, and we would remember that forever. For example, as I cited earlier the 1992 season was a very quiet one from a standpoint of number of storms, however, one of the worst hurricanes in history occurred in August of that year when Andrew, a category 5 hit South Florida. On the other hand, in 2005 we set a new record for the most storms ever in one season in the Atlantic Basin when 28 named storms formed. It was the only time in history that we completed a list of names for the season, and had to use the Greek alphabet. However, no one really remembers that we had 28 storms. Most people remember 3...Katrina, Rita, & Wilma. So, you see that's why I don't put much stock in numbers, and always urge you to remember my seasonal disclaimer..."It doesn't matter how many there are, it matters where they go." No one knows where a storm will go until it is on the board. There is absolutely no skill in predicting who will receive a direct hit from a tropical cyclone in any given year without the presence of a storm to understand what the current atmospheric environment is.

The expert forecasts call for between 15-18 named storms with 9 hurricanes, 5 of those becoming major hurricanes. The normals or 9-12, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. There were 19 named storms in 2010. A major hurricane is of category 3 intensity or higher. Now, here are my thoughts on the upcoming season. I believe that it will be an above average year given the present La Nina, and the ongoing cycle of enhanced development. However, I will not put a number on it for reasons cited a few moments ago. I should also mention that I know many people have a sense of uneasiness about this season with all of the devastating tornadoes and spring storms we have seen in the recent days and weeks. It makes you wonder if the hurricanes are going to be very violent this season, or more violent than usual. There is no way of knowing that for sure. There's no skill in forecasting intensity either when it comes to hurricanes. There are often some correlations between different events in meteorology, however, you must understand that there is no correlation between severe spring storms and tropical activity. The main reason for this is because the atmospheric conditions that fuel hurricanes are completely different from those that trigger the intense spring storms. Also, the ingredients for the spring storms always congeal over land, while everything for tropical activity always originates over water. Upper level wind pattern can be entirely different over water than they are over land, and they can vary from day to day and even hour to hour in some instances. So, rest assured there is no correlation, and no one can predict the intensity of a tropical cyclone based on weather events that happened during non-tropical seasons. The experts say there is an increased risk of a major hurricane striking the Gulf of Mexico this year as well, this is possible, but I wouldn't go so far as to say that. Only God knows what will really happen, let's leave it up to Him, and just be prepared either way.

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In closing, as has become the tradition since Rita, I want to close with something you can print out and use in your home or office this season and every season...The Hurricane Prayer. The same prayer that stays posted in the right hand margin of this blog. I want to post it here, and say it in closing. Pray this as often as you wish either silently by yourself or with your family. I know some churches have begun saying it in mass or different services over the past few years. This prayer was written in 1957 after the devastation of Hurricane Audrey. It was penned by Bishop Maurice Schexnayder of Lafayette. Lake Charles was part of the Lafayette diocese at that time.

In the name of the Father, the Son, & the Holy Spirit...

O God, Master of this passing world hear the humble voices of your children. The Sea of Galilee obeyed Your order and returned to its former quietide. You are still the Master of land and sea. We live in the shadow of a danger over which we have no control, the Gulf, like a provoked and angry giant, can awaken from its seeming lethargy, overstep its conventional boundaries, invade our land and spread chaos and disaster. During this hurricane season we turn to You, O loving Father. Spare us from past tragedies whose memories are still so vivid and whose wounds seem to refuse to heal with passing of time. O Virgin, Star of the Sea, Our Beloved Mother, we ask you to please with your Son in our behalf, so that spared from the calamities common to this area and animated with a true spirit of gratitude, we will walk in the footsteps of your Divine Son to reach the heavenly Jerusalem where a stormless eternity awaits us. In the name of the Father, the Son, & the Holy Spirit...Amen!


God bless SW Louisiana & all of us in the hurricane zone this season!
-DM-