SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Ok, pinch yourself! Are we really in the middle of May? It sure doesn't feel like it in the wake of the recent late season cold front. What a beautiful weekend it was with plenty of sunshine, low humidity, and pleasant temperatures! These late season pleasantries extended into this new work week, and will be with for a little bit longer. A large area of surface high pressure remains in control of the weather across the area, and is being re-enforced tonight on the backside of an upper level low over the SE U.S. Surface high pressure remains to our W and NW, so winds will remain offshore and on the light side. Skies should generally be clear through the overnight hours into Tuesday keeping the beautiful weather in place. The pleasantly warm afternoon with readings in the upper 70s to lower 80s will translate into very comfortable readings overnight with record lows attainable in some locations. Overnight lows will range from the upper 40s at well inland locations to the mid to upper 50s at the coast. Lower 50s should suffice for the I-10 corridor. The comfortable weather will march on for Tuesday with low humidity once again. High temperatures will remain below normal in the upper 70s to lower 80s. We should be closer to 90 this time of year, no complaints!!!
This great weather might very well be our last gasp of beautiful Spring weather, so I hope you have a chance to enjoy it. The good news is that it will be Wednesday afternoon before we begin to notice any real change to this marvelous weather. The ongoing NW flow will remain in place, and surface high pressure will slowly trudge Eastward through Wednesday. This will keep the Gulf of Mexico closed for business. Humidity values should remain on the low side through Wednesday even with a light return flow in place by late in the day. Another cool morning is on tap for Wednesday with readings in the low to mid 50s. It should be a little bit warmer than Tuesday morning as the air mass begins to modify, and no records are expected to be threatened this time around. It will certainly still be well below normal for this time of year. The cool start to Wednesday will transition into a warmer afternoon with highs likely reaching the middle 80s in many locations. While this weather is beautiful and very pleasant, we do still have to be concerned with the very dry conditions which pose an elevated fire danger, and also the ongoing hydrologic issues with river flooding in the Mississippi and Atchafalaya River Basins. This will continue to make local and national news through the week as the water moves down the floodplain heading for the Gulf of Mexico. The opening of some of the flood gates at the Morganza Spillway will continue to impact the river stages along the Atchafalaya River. It seems strange to be talking about drought conditions and flooding at the same time, but this is one of those very rare occasions because of weather events that occurred downstream.
Getting back into specifics of the forecast, an evident transition will occur during the latter half of the week. We will clearly transition essentially into a summer pattern. The humid will be back with earnest by Thursday afternoon as the controlling surface high pressure slides off to our East. Temperatures will heat up in response to an upper level ridge located to our W and SW. This ridge will translate Eastward as well meaning mid and upper level high pressure will become the main synoptic feature to contend with. The transition begins Wednesday night into Thursday with low temperatures climbing back closer to normal into the low to mid 60s. Skies should generally remain clear with a more pronounced onshore flow. A mix of sun & clouds is expected for Thursday with a steady stream of low-level Gulf moisture moving across the forecast area around the periphery of the ejecting surface high. Highs on Thursday will reach the mid 80s, and it will feel more like 90 or so with an increase in humidity. The onshore flow intensifies for Friday with the warming trend continuing. Mid and upper level ridging will continue, and keep all large scale weather systems away from this region. The blocking pattern will also mean limited or no rain chances for the foreseeable future. Standard early summer weather is expected with highs around 90 and lows climbing back into the lower 70s. The general mix of sun and clouds will play on.
These same conditions will take us through the weekend and into next week (and beyond). The typical early summer pattern is expected with plenty of humidity and a general mix of sun and clouds along with warm morning temperatures in the low to mid 70s and hot afternoons with highs reaching or surpassing the 90 degree mark through Monday. Heat indices will come into play given all the humidity. These readings will likely be near the 100 degree mark by late in the weekend. This is the kind of pattern where only slight day to day variations are to be expected. In this case, the prolonged period of dry weather will only work to worsen the ongoing drought conditions across the forecast area. Mid and upper level ridging will be the key ingredient and driving force behind the daily synoptic weather pattern. There will be copious amounts of low-level moisture present, but a lack of a moistened air column in the mid and upper levels will thwart any hope for rainfall. The only very slight chance for any rain that may occur this forecast period may come on Friday as a minor disturbance bypasses the region to the North. There is the outside chance that this disturbance will weaken the firmly entrenched upper level cap just enough for some widely scattered afternoon convection. No matter what happens, the kind of drought busting rainfall the forecast area needs will remain absent for the foreseeable future with a quick transition to our usual summer pattern expected.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 52/81 55/83 65/85 0 0 0 0 0 0
CAM 56/79 57/77 68/78 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 51/81 54/84 63/85 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 51/81 55/83 64/85 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 53/82 56/85 66/87 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 47/80 50/83 60/88 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 48/80 51/84 61/88 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Clear & Cool. Low 52. NNW wind 5-10 mph.
Tuesday...Sunny. High 81. North wind 10 mph.
Tuesday Night...Clear. Low 55. Light NE wind.
Wednesday...Sunny. High 83. East wind 10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Mostly Clear & Warmer. Low 65. SE wind 5 mph or less.
Thursday...Partly Cloudy, Warmer, & More Humid. High 85. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 70. SSE wind 5-10 mph.
Friday...Partly Cloudy. High 88. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Friday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 72. SSE wind 10 mph.
Saturday...Partly Cloudy. High 90. South wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Tuesday 5/17/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear & Refreshingly Cool
Temp: 52
Rain: 0%
Wind: NW 4
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 7
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 8
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 7
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Tuesday
5-17-11
Low: 52
High: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
Wednesday
5-18-11
Low: 55
High: 83
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 10
Thursday
5-19-11
Low: 65
High: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Friday
5-20-11
Low: 70
High: 88
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 90-95
Saturday
5-21-11
Low: 71
High: 90
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 92-97
Sunday
5-22-11
Low: 71
High: 90
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 95-100
Monday
5-23-11
Low: 73
High: 91
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-20
H.I.: 95-100
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday...East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night Through Friday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Saturday...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
...Tide Data...
Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 10:08a.m. 9:40p.m.
High: 4:59a.m. 1:53p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
163.91'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Monday, May 16, 2011
Low: 63
Normal Low: 66
Record Low: 49-1926
High: 82
Normal High: 84
Record High: 92-2010
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.43"
Normal Month to Date: 2.93"
Year to Date: 14.51"
Normal Year to Date: 18.91"
Record: 15.67"- 1980
Significant Weather Observed:
Fog
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 70
High: 92
Rain: 0.03"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 56
High: 81
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 63
High: 84
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Tuesday: 6:18a.m.
Sunset Tuesday: 8:01p.m.
Hunting Times:
5:48a.m.-8:31p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Full Moon- Tuesday May 17
Last Quarter- Tuesday May 24
New Moon- Wednesday June 1
First Quarter- Thursday June 9
Have a great Tuesday & God Bless!
-DM-
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