SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The awesome & unbelievably nice late Spring weather is still present on this Tuesday evening, but like all good things, it too, will come to an end in the short term. It continues for right now, as we are in a proverbial sandwich across the middle portion of the contiguous 48 states. A vigorous storm system is affecting the East Coast, while the next downstream system is over the Western Continental U.S. at present. Surface high pressure is firmly in control here at press time, but as we work our way through the next 24 hours the core of the surface feature will push Eastward into Dixie. This re-enforced area of high pressure provided us with another virtually cloud free day with pleasant temperatures and low humidity across the area. Morning lows were on the cool side with upper 40s to lower 50s, resulting in record lows across portions of the area. Afternoon highs were comfortable with readings in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The offshore flow that has been present since the weekend continues as the high pressure is virtually overhead right now. Another cool night is in store tonight with dry air still in place, however, air mass modification will begin. Therefore, overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer than that of last night, but still 50s are a good bet area wide. The surface high will slowly trudge Eastward beginning tonight, resulting in the commencement of a very subtle return flow by first thing Wednesday morning. Clear skies will remain in place. Our main concerns in the short term will be the ongoing hydrologic event with flooding along the Mississippi and Atchafalaya River basins, and the continuing drought with an elevated fire danger across the balance of the forecast area.
One more splendid day is in store for Wednesday with plenty of sunshine expected. Humidity will be on the increase in response to the return of the onshore flow. Mostly sunny skies are expected, and afternoon one more cooler than normal morning we will see high temperatures back up to near normal levels reaching the mid 80s for much of the area. Of course, closer to the coast it will be several degrees cooler due to the marine influence, and the warmest locations will be closer to 85 or so. Mid and upper level ridging will continue to persist despite the evacuating surface high. In turn, the benign weather pattern will continue with no large scale weather systems in the offing. Looking into the second half of the week, a day featuring seasonable temperatures with much more humidity and some cloud cover expected. Morning lows will be in the middle range of the 60s with higher dew points associated with the returning Gulf moisture, while Thursday's highs reach or exceed 85 across the area. The heat index will come into play as well thanks to the increased humidity. These values will be around 90 during peak heating hours Thursday. Surface winds will increase as the downstream Pacific storm system advances across the country.
As I stated in the previous forecast discussion, it appears as though for all intents and purposes this is the last gasp of Spring, and our last encounter with pleasant weather until the fall. Oh, there could certainly still be a front or two here in the latter stages of May, but the climatologically favored time for fronts reaching the Gulf Coast is about over with. There are no fronts on the horizon, though one might get close in the Friday/Saturday time frame to perhaps conjure up some beneficial rains for at least part of the forecast area. A strong short wave and trailing cold front will push Eastward on Friday, and slide into the ARKLATEX region. Mid and upper level ridging dominating the Gulf Coast weather will continue to hold firm likely quelling any rain chances in our neck of the woods. An isolated storm or two will be possible over the Northern extremities of the forecast area Friday due to a weaker cap in closer proximity to the synoptic feature. Most of us will see the continuation of dry weather along with plenty of humidity & seasonal May temperatures. Morning lows will be back to around 70 for Friday morning while afternoon highs creep toward the 90 degree threshold. It will certainly be time to get out the bathing suits and slap on the sunscreen. Perhaps, the only effects from the passing short wave locally will be the gusty South winds. The onshore flow will strengthen to over 20 mph at times as the disturbance creates pressure anomalies across the Northern Gulf Coast. There is a possibility that rain chances will be inserted for the rest of the forecast period if it looks like the aforementioned disturbance will drop a bit further South. This remains to be seen, and another analysis tomorrow will garner more details.
The remainder of the forecast period will remain on the quiet side. The ongoing drought will continue with no large scale weather systems expected to impact the area. Skies will generally be Partly Cloudy each day, and it will be very warm to hot with lots of humidity. It might be time to venture out to the ole swimming pool. Use caution if you will be out in the sun for a prolonged period of time over the weekend. Morning low temperatures will trend above normal running mainly in the lower 70s through Tuesday while afternoon highs climb above the 90 degree mark until the end of the forecast period as well. Mid and upper level ridging will continue to do the dominate weather feature. All storm systems of consequence will remain well to the North of SW Louisiana keeping us high and dry, and in drought conditions. The ongoing flooding situation for our neighbors to the East will continue to be the main story. No significant pattern change is expected anytime soon. It seems clear to me that we will transition into summer over the next few days. There may be a better chance for at least some standard afternoon shower & thunderstorm activity be the latter portions of next week, but this all depends on the ridging in the mid and upper levels. Day to day variations in atmospheric conditions often control the quota of scattered shower & thunderstorm activity across the Gulf Coast region throughout the summer months.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 55/83 65/86 71/88 0 0 0 0 0 10
CAM 60/79 68/81 73/85 0 0 0 0 0 10
LFT 54/84 64/85 70/88 0 0 0 0 0 10
ARA 57/82 65/84 72/87 0 0 0 0 0 10
BPT 58/84 68/85 72/89 0 0 0 0 0 10
AEX 50/84 60/87 65/90 0 0 0 0 0 20
POE 50/84 60/87 66/90 0 0 0 0 0 20
Tonight...Clear. Low 55. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday...Mostly Sunny. High 83. South wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Wednesday Night...Clear. Low 65. South wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday...Partly Cloudy. High 86. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 71. SSE wind 10 mph.
Friday...Partly Cloudy. High 88. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Friday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 72. South wind 10-15 mph.
Saturday...Partly Cloudy. High 90. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Saturday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 73. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Sunday...Partly Cloudy. High 91. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Wednesday 5/18/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 55
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 3
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 8
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 79
Rain: 0%
Wind: South 17
3p.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 86
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 20
6p.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 16
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 76
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 12
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
5-18-11
Low: 55
High: 83
Rain: 0%
Wind: South 15-20
Thursday
5-19-11
Low: 65
High: 86
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Friday
5-20-11
Low: 71
High: 88
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Saturday
5-21-11
Low: 72
High: 90
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Sunday
5-22-11
Low: 73
High: 91
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Monday
5-23-11
Low: 73
High: 91
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Tuesday
5-24-11
Low: 74
High: 92
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 foot building to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.
Wednesday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Friday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Friday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Sunday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 10:56a.m. 10:27p.m.
High: 5:59a.m. 2:23p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
163.80'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
Low: 52
Normal Low: 66
Record Low: 46-1912
High: 79
Normal High: 84
Record High: 94-1933
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.43"
Normal Month to Date: 3.13"
Year to Date: 14.51"
Normal Year to Date: 19.11"
Record: 1.62"- 2004
Significant Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 69
High: 91
Rain: 1.16"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 57
High: 84
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 67
High: 84
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:18a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 8:01p.m.
Hunting Times:
5:48a.m.-8:31p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Full Moon- Tonight May 17
Last Quarter- Tuesday May 24
New Moon- Wednesday June 1
First Quarter- Thursday June 9
Have a great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-
No comments:
Post a Comment