SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...After an incredibly hot stretch to start the month of June with temperatures exceeding the century mark, and many locations setting multiple record highs, we have finally tempered down towards normal June weather. The real question is will it continue, or will we experience another heat wave in the forecast period. On this Wednesday, temperatures reached the low to mid 90s across all reporting sites with the usual exception being along the immediate coast. For a drought stricken SW Louisiana, scattered showers & thunderstorms were of lesser significance today with only a widely scattering mainly over Acadiana. A short wave rotating around the southern periphery of the large upper level ridge that plagued us with the heat wave was located to our E and NE, and didn't really make enough headway to create the necessary lift to provide for additional showers & storms. So if you didn't get any rain between Sunday & Tuesday, then odds are you will have to wait a while longer as we begin to see strengthening mid and upper level ridging for the latter half of the work week. All of today's convective activity has decayed with the loss of daytime heating, and a quiet but humid June night is on tap with lows generally around normal in the lower 70s with middle 70s at the coast. A light onshore flow will prevail.
There will be another chance for some lucky folks to get some rain on Thursday. Another short wave rotating around the persistent ridge will move from E to W during the afternoon, and this should combine with daytime heating to produce showers & thunderstorms on a widely scattered basis. As has been the case with many of the storms this week, some of these could briefly reach severe limits with damaging winds & hail the main threats. It is nearly impossible to pinpoint exactly who will be lucky enough to get rain until it is actually visible on radar. Many people want to know if it will rain at their particular location, but the short answer is there's no way of knowing that until the daily crop of convective activity fires up. There will also be sea breeze interaction during the afternoon hours. Skies will generally be Partly Cloudy. Highs will easily reach the low to mid 90s yet again, and with plenty of humidity present, the apparent temperatures will be threading the needle with the 100 degree mark. That's still better than actual temperatures around the same mark. The usual onshore flow will prevail with SSE winds 10-15 mph or so. Areal coverage for Thursday should in the 20-30% range, about average for early June.
The atmosphere dries out further for Friday through the weekend & into next week. Minimal rain chances, slim to none will be in store for the rest of this forecast period. The upper level high re-establishes itself across the Bayou State, although it shouldn't be nearly as strong as it was previously. However, temperatures will be reflected by the drying atmosphere and the building ridge. No better than a 20% chance of some scattered afternoon convection is expected Friday-Wednesday, and any storms that do fire up will be the typically thermally induced activity. Skies will generally be Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy each day. Morning lows will remain at or slightly above average in the low to mid 70s while afternoon highs should strictly be in the above normal category through mid-month with readings in the mid to upper 90s. It is certainly feasible that locations well inland may flirt with or exceed the 100 degree mark for actual air temperatures by late in the weekend. Heat indices will certainly be above 100, and approach the 105 degree danger level. Be sure to use extreme caution when engaging in outdoor activities, and don't forget the sunscreen. It's a good time to find a nice swimming pool. The bad news is we won't see anything remotely close to helping the ongoing drought situation. Remember, the entire state of Louisiana is under a mandatory burn ban until further notice.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 73/94 73/94 73/95 20 20 10 10 0 0
CAM 77/87 77/87 78/88 20 30 10 10 0 0
LFT 72/95 73/95 73/96 20 20 10 10 0 0
ARA 75/93 75/94 74/94 20 20 10 10 0 0
BPT 75/95 75/96 75/97 20 20 10 10 0 0
JAS 72/95 73/97 72/98 20 20 10 10 0 0
AEX 71/96 72/97 72/98 20 20 10 10 0 0
POE 71/96 72/97 72/99 20 20 10 10 0 0
Tonight...Partly Cloudy w/ a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms, mainly near the coast. Low 73. SSE wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday...Partly Cloudy w/ a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. High 94. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 73. Light SSE wind.
Friday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 94. South wind 10-15 mph.
Friday Night...Clear. Low 73. Light South wind.
Saturday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 95. SSW wind 10-15 mph.
Saturday Night...Clear. Low 74. Light SSE wind.
Sunday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 96. SSW wind 10 mph.
Sunday Night...Clear. Low 75. Light SSW wind.
Monday...Partly Cloudy & Hot. High 97. SW wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday 6/9/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 5
9a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
A Widely Scattered Shower or Storm Possible Near the Coast
Temp: 87
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 12
H.I.: 93
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 94
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15
H.I.: 100
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Isolated Showers & Storms Winding Down
Temp: 90
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 13
H.I.: 97
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 83
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 6
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Thursday
6-9-11
High: 94
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
Friday
6-10-11
Low: 73
High: 94
Rain: 10%
Wind: S 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
Saturday
6-11-11
Low: 73
High: 95
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSW 10-15
H.I.: 97-102
Sunday
6-12-11
Low: 74
High: 96
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 10
H.I.: 98-103
Monday
6-13-11
Low: 75
High: 97
Rain: 0%
Wind: SW 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
Tuesday
6-14-11
Low: 75
High: 96
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
Wednesday
6-15-11
Low: 75
High: 95
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 98-103
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the evening.
Thursday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Thursday Night...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Friday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Friday Night...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Saturday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Saturday Night...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Sunday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Monday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
...Tropical Update...
After a brief flare up with a tropical wave over the tropical Caribbean in the early stages of this month, all is quiet now on the tropical front. No tropical cyclone formation is expected through Friday across the entire Atlantic basin, that is to say, the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, & Atlantic Ocean.
...Tide Data...
Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 3:06a.m. 4:26p.m.
High: 9:34a.m. 11:12p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
163.46'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
Low: 71
Normal Low: 71
Record Low: 59-1930
High: 92
Normal High: 88
Record High: 104-1911
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.18"
Normal Month to Date: 1.68"
Year to Date: 14.69"
Normal Year to Date: 23.72"
Record: 2.90"- 1897
Significant Weather Observed:
Fog
Haze
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 75
High: 92
Rain: Trace
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 72
High: 94
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 73
High: 83
Rain: 0.52"
Sunrise Thursday: 6:11a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 8:13p.m.
Hunting Times:
5:41a.m.-8:43p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Thursday June 9
Full Moon- Wednesday June 15
Last Quarter- Thursday June 23
New Moon- Friday July 1
Have a great Thursday & God Bless!
-DM-
No comments:
Post a Comment