March Definitely Exits as a Lamb...You Would Be "Foolish" Not to Enjoy the Weekend...

Thursday, March 31, 2011

Click below for today's edition of the video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the complete text block of the blog.




SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...What a beautiful day to end the month of March. There were some clouds as some wrap-around cloudiness from the previous storm system traversed the horizon mainly in the morning hours. It was seasonably cool as well with plenty of sunshine in place, and temperatures in the low to mid 70s this afternoon. Morning lows were on the cool side with many locations starting out in the 40s. High pressure is in control at the surface providing for these wonderful conditions after it was one "hail" of a start to the day on Wednesday. No such worries with that over the next few days. It will be a quiet end to this month of March. Clear skies, light winds, and cool temps are on the menu this fine Thursday evening. Expect overnight with readings generally in the lower 50s, but some locations may very well reach the upper 40s again especially towards the usual cold spots such as Oakdale or DeRidder. The current controlling high pressure will persist for Friday, and as a result April will get off to an Absolutely Awesome start. The clear & cool morning will give way to a beautiful and pleasant afternoon. High temperatures should reach the the upper 70s to around 80, but with humidity values quite low once again it will feel magnificent...no fooling! We will have some of the nicest weather in the country for April Fool's Day. Our big mid-week system will be turning up the East Coast, and it looks like a late season Nor'Easter will develop in New England.

A weaker cold front will push Southward into parts of the state late Friday and Friday night. This front might stir up some cloudiness across the area. However, the actual front will never make it through the forecast area. It will likely dissipate as it heads into Central Louisiana. Areas closer to the front may have a slight chance of seeing a brief shower, but moisture is limited, and most of us will barely see any clouds, so no rain chance is mentioned. The usual process of air mass modification will ensue Friday as well. The return flow will commence, and this will be reflected more so by Friday night as low temperatures moderate from the lower 50s to the middle to upper 50s. Tranquility will remain. The first weekend of April should be a winner, and it would be "foolish" to let it pass by without getting out to enjoy. Saturday should feature plentiful sunshine and warmer temps. Some cumulus clouds may return by the afternoon as moisture levels slowly increase, but all in all I'll err on the side of Mostly Sunny for Saturday. High temperatures will easily flirt with 80, and will certainly penetrate it in some areas. It will be much milder and humid by Sunday. A more pronounced onshore flow will be in place as a vigorous storm system moves into the Rockies....more on that in a minute! The pressure differences will increase, and the onshore flow will intensify. Skies will be Partly Cloudy with morning lows back above seasonal norms in the lower to middle 60s across the area. High temperatures will once again be on the warm side with average highs in the lower 80s. Soak up the sun after church! You might even want to break out the shorts!!!

I want you to enjoy the prettiness that is in store this weekend, but at the same time you need to begin to be aware of potentially adverse weather conditions early next week. Things began to go downhill Monday. This next system appears to be more robust than its predecessor. A strong onshore flow will pump up copious amounts of tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico as the Pacific originating system deepens in the Great Plains. A sharpening trough and attendant cold front will push ESE across our great country. Jet Stream energy will ignite a surface low Monday afternoon, and the same low will eject NE into the Mid West via strong SW winds from the Jet Stream. Monday will start off on the dry side with generally just Mostly Cloudy skies, warm & humid conditions. It will almost be summerlike with morning lows around 70, believe it or not. A chance for showers & storms will return to the forecast on a scattered basis Monday afternoon as deeper moisture moves in, and the upper level cap erodes with the trough pushing down. Temperatures should once again crack the 80 degree threshold. The models are consistent with the set up that favors severe weather yet again, however, there are still many differences with models as well. Timing is always an issue this far out. It does appear that the greatest risk for showers & thunderstorms will come in the overnight hours into Tuesday. While it is still 4-5 days away, there is plenty of time to get specific about this event. At this point, my analysis leads me to believe that this time around all modes of severe weather will be possible. The severe weather outbreak may begin during the afternoon on Monday with some isolated convection, but widespread showers & storms will affect the area Monday night with the greatest risk likely after midnight Tuesday morning. There will be plenty of instability and lifting in place. Another parameters for severe weather looks to be prominent. Heavy rainfall will once again be possible in this time frame. Stay tuned for more specificity in the days ahead.

Improvement will come at some point on Tuesday depending on the ultimate timing of said system. The cold front will slide into the forecast area with ease in the morning hours Tuesday with the strong surface low ejecting into the Mid West. Warm temperatures will remain in place in the pre-frontal environment with morning lows running in the mid 60s or so. Now, it won't warm up much Tuesday because of the timing of the front once again. Afternoon highs shouldn't eclipse the mid 70 plateau, and it could even stay cooler than that depending on how much cold air filters in behind this front. The front will easily push into the coastal waters taking the unseasonably warm & humid weather with it. CAA takes over, and the onshore flow will be replaced with an offshore flow as you would expect in the wake of the front. A chance for showers & thunderstorms is maintained at this time for Tuesday, particularly in the morning hours. However, the current forecast will reflect highest rain chances coming in the pre-dawn hours before tapering off during the day. Not much rain should be left by Tuesday afternoon, but there might a period of some post-frontal rains. Clouds will hang tough through the day Tuesday, but certainly conditions will improve by the afternoon hours. High pressure will be building in beyond Tuesday.

Speaking of that high pressure, that will dominate the remainder of the forecast. Another batch of Absolutely Awesome April weather is expected for mid week extending into the latter half of the first full week of April. Expect nothing but sunshine Wednesday and Thursday along with cooler but pleasant temperatures. This will classify as another Spring cool snap for sure. Morning lows may dip into the 40s for Wednesday and Thursday while afternoon highs trend below normal as well. We may not even make it to 70 on Wednesday as a cool breeze continues over the area. High pressure should be right over head Thursday, allowing for CAA to cease. The combination of plenty of sunshine and the dry air mass will result in a large diurnal range. As air mass modification ensues, high temperatures should get back above the 70 degree mark just like that. Dry weather looks to continue just beyond the scope of this forecast period for the end of next week, but as the controlling high slips Eastward, we will begin to experience the return flow yet again. More humidity will be in place by next Friday, but at this time it looks like it will remain dry. The next opportunity for rain may come over the following weekend, April 9-10 with another decent cold front traversing the nation, and heading for the Gulf Coast.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH   52/80  57/81  62/80  0 0 10 10 0 10
CAM  56/77  61/77  65/75  0 0 10 10 0 10
LFT    53/81  55/82  61/81  0 0 10 10 0 10
ARA   54/80  58/80  62/79  0 0 10 10 0 10
BPT    54/82  59/83  63/81  0 0 10 10 0 10
AEX   47/81  55/83  59/82  0 0 10 10 0 10
POE   48/81  55/83  59/82  0 0 10 10 0 10


Tonight...Clear. Low 52. Light West wind becoming South.

Friday...Sunny. High 80. SW wind 5-10 mph.

Friday Night...Clear. Low 57. Light South wind.

Saturday...Mostly Sunny. High 81. South wind 10 mph or less.

Saturday Night..Mostly Clear. Low 62. SSE wind 5 mph.

Sunday...Partly Cloudy & Breezy. High 80. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.


Friday 4/1/11 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Clear & Refreshing

Temp: 52
Rain: 0%
Wind: W 3

9a.m.

Weather: Sunny

Temp: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 4

Noon

Weather: Sunny

Temp: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: SW 5

3p.m.

Weather: Sunny

Temp: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: SW 7

6p.m.

Weather: Sunny

Temp: 76
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 5

9p.m.

Weather: Mostly Clear

Temp: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 3


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Friday
4-1-11
April Fool's Day

Low: 52
High: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: SW 5-10


Saturday
4-2-11

Low: 57
High: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: South 10


Sunday
4-3-11

Low: 62
High: 80
Rain: 10%
wind: SSE 15-20


Monday
4-4-11

Low: 69
High: 81
Rain: 60% Late PM...80% Overnight
Wind: SSE 20-25


Tuesday
4-5-11

Low: 65
High: 74
Rain: 80% Early...40% after daybreak
Wind: SSW/NNW 20-30


Wednesday
4-6-11

Low: 49
High: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 15-20


Thursday
4-7-11

Low: 45
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10


...Marine Forecast...


Tonight....West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Friday...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Friday Night...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Saturday...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Saturday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.

Sunday...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.


...Tide Data...


Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:

Low:           8:53a.m.            9:06p.m.
High:           2:26p.m.           2:58p.m.                


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    164.49'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Thursday, March 31, 2011


Low:                50
Normal Low:   54
Record Low:   31-1987
High:               74
Normal High:   74
Record High:   88-1946

Rainfall

Today:                              0.00"
Month to Date:                 5.58"
Normal Month to Date:    3.54"
Year to Date:                 12.24"
Normal Year to Date:    12.34"
Record:                           2.33"- 1921


Significant Weather Observed:

None

One Year Ago (2010)

Low:     49
High:     73
Rain:     0.00"

5 Years Ago (2006)

Low:     70
High:     81
Rain:    Trace


10 Years Ago (2001)

Low:    50
High:    76
Rain:    0.00"


Sunrise Friday:   7:02a.m.
Sunset  Friday:   7:32p.m.


Hunting Times:

6:32a.m.-8:02p.m.



...Lunar Table...

New Moon- Sunday April 3

First Quarter- Monday April 11

Full Moon- Monday April 18

Last Quarter-  Monday April 25


Have a great Friday! God Bless!
-DM

Severe Weather Threat Tonight into Wednesday...Great Weather to End the Week...

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

*The blog will be in severe weather mode tonight.* Regular format will return tomorrow.*

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The advertised spring storm system is approaching tonight. Showers & storms have erupted, and are scattered about the forecast area. There has been little in the way of severe weather here locally so far, but that should change later on tonight. The warm front has worked its way inland, and is now situated well North of I-10. After a refreshingly cool morning, the warm & muggy air mass is in place. High temperatures were near 80 at LCH, and into the lower 80s in Acadiana which was in the warm sector for a longer period today. Shower activity and scattered convection continues to develop in the warm sector and move slowly NE. At the same time, a disturbance embedded in the Southern branch of the Jet Stream is ejecting NE out ahead of the main trough and attendant cold front. This cold front is translating SE as we speak, and will be the main focal point for showers & thunderstorms in the overnight hours. The pre-frontal perturbation will allow for a weakening of the upper level cap and increasing instability and lifting. This will allow for showers & thunderstorms to become more numerous. As Jet Stream energy gets involved, the potential for severe weather will develop. Showers & thunderstorms will continue to develop out ahead of the main thrust of the system, and as these feed off of the high moisture content and the increasingly unstable air mass, isolated severe cells will be common with damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes all possible. A Tornado Watch was previously in effect for all of SW Louisiana until 10:00p.m., however, this has just been changed to a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, and the time was extended until 4a.m. Wednesday. The Tornado Watch is still in place over SE Louisiana where the parameters for tornadoes are more prevalent.

It will be advisable to have some way to keep yourself abreast of the latest weather developments. If you have a NOAA Weather Radio, make sure it is in alert mode. Review your severe weather plan of action. There will be the potential for heavy rainfall with 1-2" possible in some areas. Not everyone will see those amounts, but everyone should get in on some much needed rainfall. The biggest threat for severe weather will come between midnight and 6a.m. depending upon where you are in the forecast area. I will narrow it down even more, and say 2-4a.m. for the Lake Charles area. I don't really see much change from my forecast reasoning last night. Hail and damaging winds are still the main threats, but certainly conditions seem favorable for an isolated tornado or two. The combination of the ejecting disturbance and the cold front will work in tandem to produce this severe weather potential. I would expect scattered showers & storms to develop along and just out ahead of the cold front in Texas within the next few hours. This scattered activity will migrate Eastward and congeal into a squall line as the night progresses. It will quickly move into our area in the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday. Rain chances will be in the likely category through Wednesday morning. The threat for severe weather will come to an end as the front makes its way through the area. It will easily push into the coastal waters after daylight. It will remain on the warm side until frontal passage with temperatures holding in the 70s until the early morning hours. We will fall into the lower 60s behind the front as CAA takes over. Winds will shift from onshore to offshore in the wake of the front.

The post-frontal weather will certainly be much calmer, but rain chances will not totally be eliminated from the forecast just yet. Lingering moisture will be present in the post-frontal environment. High pressure will slowly be building in. CAA will be in place, and a small diurnal range is expected with highs only reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s. As the trough advances across the country, an embedded upper level feature on the backside of this cold front will swing through with the trough. This will keep a chance for some shower activity in place through the day. Rain chances will be much less, dropping from near 70-80% early in the day into the 30-40% range in the afternoon. The clouds will hang tough as well. Additional rainfall amounts will be on the light side, and the additional rainfall should generally be in the form of light rain or drizzle. It will feel cooler than the forecasted upper 60s to lower 70s thanks to strong NNW winds up to 20 mph at times. Clearing skies will finally occur overnight Wednesday as the backside disturbance vacates the area, and high pressure builds in. The chance for rain will likely end by midnight, if not sooner. The upper level flow will be much faster for at least the next 24-48 hours, so that may allow for a faster ejection of the system than models indicate. Conditions will be on the cool side heading into Thursday with morning lows as cool as the mid 40s in the coldest locations. Average temperatures will be around 50 across the forecast area, and generally in the middle 50s or so along the coast. Winds will subside during the night as the high pressure moves closer to the area.

Great weather is on tap for the latter half of the week. March will go out like a lamb with high pressure in control. It will be quite comfortable for Thursday with highs reaching the low to mid 70s, plenty of sunshine, and not much humidity. Friday will be just as nice, but a substantial warming trend will begin in the afternoon. The high pressure will begin to slide Eastward, and that will cut off CAA. Friday morning temps will still be on the cool side with similar morning lows. Afternoon highs will trend back to above normal just like that! Hence the term, cool snap, as is so often the case in Spring. It will still be great with readings in the upper 70s and low humidity in place. The weekend ahead looks awesome as well especially Saturday. The air will warm up quickly because of the influences of dry air in place, and by later morning on Saturday the return flow will commence as high pressure slides far enough to our East. Saturday should be the third day in a row of nothing but sunshine. Morning lows will be at or above normal again with readings generally in the mid 50s or so. Afternoon highs around 80 to the lower 80s should be amassed. Humidity levels will begin to rise thanks to the return flow in the afternoon, but it will still be pleasantly warm. Things change on Sunday. Much more humid weather will be in place, and it will be unseasonably warm. The surface high will have moved well to our East, but a big upper ridge will be in place. We will remain dry but Partly Cloudy skies are expected along with a Southerly breeze ushering in deeper Gulf moisture. Temperatures should by far reach the warmest levels we have seen so far in 2011 with morning lows in the 60s while afternoon highs reach the lower to middle 80s for maximums in all locations. Get out there and enjoy this first weekend of April.

Into next week, an active pattern is established. The warming and humidifying trend continues in earnest Monday ahead of our next storm system. All indications are this will be a rather vigorous storm system, and it will be moving into the area later on Monday into Tuesday. Monday will be very warm & windy with a general mix of sun and clouds. Some scattered showers & isolated storms are possible in the afternoon with the effects of daytime heating and increasing moisture ahead of our next storm system. Afternoon highs should easily reach the mid 80s. Showers & thunderstorms should be likely for Monday night into Tuesday as the strong April cold front associated with a deepening Mid West trough makes its way into the area. The pattern has the look of an opportunity for severe weather again, but let's get this short-term system out of here first before we decipher specifics of this next cat. Severe weather or not, it appears as though a sharp cool down will occur on Tuesday. The timing of the front at this juncture depicts a morning passage, and temperatures may struggle to reach the 60s on Tuesday afternoon with strong CAA in place and strong Northerly winds behind the front. It may stay gray and drizzly as well. It will almost have the feel of a winter day the way it stands right now. The late season cold snap will take us into the middle to latter portions of next week. We aren't done with jacket weather just yet. Stay tuned for more!!!

Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH   58/68  51/72  50/77  70 40 20 0 0 0
CAM  62/71  55/75  52/75  70 40 20 0 0 0
LFT    60/70  52/73  50/76  70 40 20 0 0 0
ARA   62/71  55/75  52/75  70 40 20 0 0 0
BPT    59/69  51/73  51/78  70 30 20 0 0 0
AEX   55/65  47/70  46/73  70 40 20 0 0 0
POE   55/65  47/70  46/73  70 40 20 0 0 0


*Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 4a.m. CDT Wednesday.*

Tonight...Cloudy w/ showers & thunderstorms likely. Some severe thunderstorms possible with large hail, damaging winds, & isolated tornadoes. Locally heavy rainfall with amounts of 1-2" possible. Turning Cooler after midnight. Low 58. SSE wind 10-15 mph becoming NNW at 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 70%.

Wednesday...Cloudy w/ a chance of showers & thunderstorms in the morning. Rain tapering off during the day w/ a chance for mainly light rain and/or drizzle in the afternoon. High 68. NNW wind 15 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 70% early decreasing to 40% through the day.

Wednesday Night...Cloudy w/ a 20% chance of rain until midnight. Skies clearing after midnight. Much cooler. Low 51. North wind 10 mph.

Thursday...Sunny. High 72. North wind 5-10 mph.

Thursday Night...Clear & Cool. Low 50. Light North wind.

Friday...Sunny. High 77. NE wind 5-10 mph.


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Wednesday
3-30-11

Low: 58
High: 68
Rain: 70% Early...40% Rest of the Day
Wind: NNW 15-20


Thursday
3-31-11

Low: 51
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10


Friday
4-1-11
April Fool's Day

Low: 50
High: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10


Saturday
4-2-11

Low: 55
High: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10


Sunday
4-3-11

Low: 65
High: 84
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15


Monday
4-4-11

Low: 67
High: 85
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 20-25


Tuesday
4-5-11

Low: 57
High: 64
Rain: 70%
Wind: NNW 20-25


...Marine Forecast...


Tonight...Northeast winds around 10 knots becoming north after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday...North winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to around 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon. A chance of showers.

Wednesday Night...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers.

Thursday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast around 5 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.

Thursday Night...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Friday...Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet.


Good night, have a great Wednesday, & God bless! Stay tuned for more updates should they become necessary tonight!
-DM-

Decent Shot of Showers & Storms at Mid-Week...

Monday, March 28, 2011

Before I get to the usual business at hand, I have some news regarding the blog. This blog will remain unchanged from the current format. However, an opportunity has arisen that will hopefully allow me to be very profitable, and do what I love to do at the same time. The web site, www.examiner.com, sort of like an online newspaper or magazine covering a plethora of topics was looking for a work from home meteorologist. I applied, and I was accepted. Therefore, now I will be able to provide this same accurate weather information and hopefully expand my viewership on this site and examiner.com as well. In a nutshell, here's how it works. It doesn't cost you anything to view the site, and anytime someone logs on to read my weather forecasts, I get a kickback. It is unknown at this time how much I will make per month, but I aim to make a profit here. This all seems legit, don't think I didn't investigate this before I committed to it. Also, if anyone were to place an ad on my page, I get an additional $50 every time someone views the page. Just rest assured, that no matter what it will never cost you anything to view this page or the new one. The format of the content on my examiner page will be a bit different. That page will basically just feature the forecast and other pertinent information depending on the current weather situation. I also have the capabilities to load the same video that you will see here. I am still learning the page myself, so bear with me as it is a learning process. I appreciate your support, and hope you will log on often, and help spread the word. I promise you that between this blog and that web site you will have all the weather information for the Lake Charles area that you expect and depend on. There will never be a need to rely on anyone else for accurate weather information. After being accepted for the job, my title is Lake Charles Weather Examiner. I will include a link on this blog, and add it permanently on the right hand side of the page in the links section. Please feel free to leave me any questions or comments you may have.

Get the same accurate weather information & help me out in the process by clicking here:

http://www.examiner.com/weather-and-climate-in-lake-charles

You can see all of the entries I have posted so far. I will also continue to post a link for this site and for the new site on my facebook page. Now onto the forecast...

Click below for the latest edition of the video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the full length text block.


SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...It wasn't a bad last Monday of March. Drier and somewhat cooler conditions existed in the wake of the weak cold front which slid through the area Sunday. Skies were generally in the Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy range. Temperatures were in the refreshing 50s this morning, while this afternoon readings in the mid 70s were commonplace. There is much colder air hovering just to our North, with persistent cloud cover over the Northern half of the state. This front tapped into some Canadian air, but it essentially bypassed our area because the cold front was in a weakening state as it pushed through Sunday. It was another dry day across the entire area, but that will be changing in the not so distant future. For tonight, however, the dry weather will continue. Weak surface high pressure is in control, and we will see a quiet night across the forecast area with lows down into the mid to upper 50s across the forecast area. Skies will generally be Partly Cloudy. The previously mentioned cold front has stalled just offshore, and will be transitioning into a warm front heading into Tuesday. Light surface winds are expected overnight.

The overall weather pattern begins to change Tuesday. The front will retreat Northward as a warm front through the entire forecast area. The warm & humid air mass will be hovering just offshore, and will overspread the area during the day. High temperatures will be back into the upper 70s to lower 80s with an onshore flow commencing yet again. At the same time, a potent Spring storm system will be translating ESE across the country. Moisture will increase as the day wears on, and some shower activity is expected for the afternoon hours. These showers should be quick-moving and light in nature as the boundary layer moistens up. A disturbance embedded in the increasingly active Jet Stream will emanate out ahead of the main system, and help to induce the chance for rain across this part of the world on Tuesday. Initially, the atmosphere will remain largely capped with high pressure in the mid and upper levels slow to erode. Some of the showers that develop Tuesday afternoon could build up into a quick thunderstorm especially as the perturbation moves our way, and daytime heating takes effect. However, mostly showers are expected at least early in the game. Rain chances will be in the slight category during the day Tuesday. Moisture levels continue to increase Tuesday night into Wednesday, and a better synoptic set up will be in place for shower & thunderstorm activity. As the ejecting perturbation (upper level disturbance) and associated surface low translate Eastward overnight, moisture will pool as the deep tropical moisture flows in from the Gulf. Instability and lifting will increase as well. Some of the parameters necessary for the development of severe weather will be in place, and be sufficient enough for some potentially adverse weather.

The best opportunity for rainfall in weeks will come in this Tuesday night-Wednesday time frame. The severe weather threat is a marginal issue at this point, and from everything I have examined, it appears the main threat from any severe weather will come in the form of damaging winds and large hail. The tornado threat seems very low this go around with only marginal low-level shear in place. I certainly can't rule out an isolated tornado, but hail and wind are clearly the main threats. The entire forecast area is highlighted for a slight risk of severe weather per the Storm Prediction Center's Day 2 Outlook. The spotty showers from Tuesday afternoon may die off during the evening hours with the warm sector firmly entrenched at that time. The rain chances will jump into the likely category overnight through Wednesday morning as the main thrust of this system pushes our way. The trough will roll through the Rockies and Great Plains, and the cold front will trail from the aforementioned surface reflection over the Red River Valley. This scenario is likely to generate scattered showers & storms along & just ahead of the front from the Great Plains down to the Rio Grande Valley late Tuesday. This area will consolidate overnight, and congeal into a squall line as it migrates Eastward. Some of the rainfall will be heavy at times, and average QPF for this event may be around 1". We can easily handle this amount of rainfall as we are very dry at the moment. Any rain will be beneficial to the area this point. The mild weather will continue in the pre-frontal environment, and temperatures will only fall to the mid 60s or so with rain off and on overnight.

The main threat for rainfall and severe weather looks to come between about 4a.m. and 10a.m. Wednesday, possibly extending until as late as noon. The squall line (MCS) will push through the area just ahead of the cold front. Cold air aloft will create the hail threat, and the pressure differential and strong Jet Stream winds aloft will support the damaging wind threat. The greatest tornado threat will likely be from Central Louisiana down into Acadiana where a little bit better wind shear will be present. Heavy rain will be likely during this time as well. The exact timing of when all of this will transpire across our area is still up for grabs, but there is reasonable enough consistency at this point to suggest the aforementioned time frame. You will want to allow yourself extra time to get to work or school Wednesday morning. It will also be advisable to have your severe weather plan of action in place just in case. The unseasonably warm and humid weather will be replaced with a much more pleasant air mass as much drier and cooler air filters into the region behind this much stronger front. There will be a period of post-frontal rain Wednesday as the drier air lags behind just a bit in the boundary layer. The threat for severe weather will come to an end as the front passes through the area. Temperatures won't move much Wednesday given the timing of the front, and may actually fall off a bit as CAA takes over behind the front in the morning, before making somewhat of a recovery in the afternoon. Temperatures will only make it to the low to mid 70s as CAA tries to offset daytime heating. Cloudiness will hold firm for much of the day Wednesday. Rain chances will taper off from the likely category in the morning, but remain in the 30-40% range during the afternoon.

Rain chances will come to an end Wednesday night as the period of overrunning ends. High pressure will build in at all levels of the atmosphere heading into Thursday. CAA will result in trending temperatures to below normal levels. Minimum temperatures will fall well down into the 50s by sunrise Thursday morning with the coldest locations north of Hwy. 190 likely falling into the upper 40s, so don't go putting the jackets away just yet. That will seem even colder because we've had several days of 80 degree weather already. Lingering showers are possible until around midnight or so Thursday morning, skies should clear beyond that point. That sets us up beautifully for the latter half of this work week with plenty of sunshine to close out the month of March. March will hold true to form and go out like a lamb here in 2011 it would appear. Let's hope we get our beneficial rains because after Wednesday rain chances will be non-existent for the remainder of the week. As high pressure nudges closer to the area Thursday, we will experience nothing but sunshine and pleasant temperatures with highs generally in the low to mid 70s. It will be quite comfortable with a nice offshore breeze and low humidity. Winds will be out of the N becoming NE during the day dropping off from around 15 mph in the morning to less than 10 mph in the afternoon with high pressure in place.

A positive reinforcement arrives Friday in the form of a weaker cold front. No sensible weather is expected ahead of this front, with an absence of low level moisture in place. There might be a few clouds dotting the landscape from time to time in the afternoon with a brief return flow in place. All in all it will be a nice day with only slightly higher humidity, and slightly warmer temperatures. Morning lows will be around seasonal norms to kickoff the month of April while afternoon highs reach the mid 70s one more time. The dry reinforcing front clears the area by the evening hours, and the quiet regime will take us into the weekend. It looks like this upcoming weekend will feature a period of Absolutely Awesome April weather. Saturday looks about perfect with lots of sunshine, low humidity, and perfect Springlike temperatures. Morning lows will be on the cool side with mid to upper 40s possible in much of the area, tempered to the low to mid 50s coastal parishes. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. A light offshore flow will be present. For Sunday, it still looks nice but the controlling high pressure will be shifting Eastward allowing for a return of Gulf air by late in the day. Plenty of sunshine is on tap with just slightly higher humidity. Morning temps will still be a little cool, but will be back closer to normal for early April with readings in the mid 50s. Afternoon highs will likely reach or exceed the 80 degree mark once again. Looking at the end of the forecast period briefly, more humidity and warmer conditions are on tap for Monday ahead of our next Pacific storm due in just beyond this forecast period. Morning lows will be in the mid 60s while afternoon highs may reach the mid 80s. It has the potential to be the warmest day so far this year ahead of a front due in on Tuesday. Rain chances will return next Tuesday as well. Hopefully we will definitely get our April showers, to have the May flowers!!!


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  59/82  63/73  53/74  10 20 60 70 30 0
CAM  65/77  65/73  55/75  10 20 60 70 30 0
LFT   61/83  64/75  54/75  10 20 60 70 30 0
ARA  62/81  65/76  55/75  10 20 60 70 30 0
BPT   60/83  65/72  55/76  10 30 70 60 30 0
AEX  50/80  55/68  48/72  10 30 70 60 30 0
POE  50/80  55/68  48/72  10 30 70 60 30 0


Tonight...Partly to Mostly Cloudy. Low 59. Light East wind.

Tuesday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. An isolated thunderstorm or two. High 82. East wind 5-10 mph becoming SSE at 15-20 mph in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night...Cloudy with showers & thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rainfall & severe thunderstorms possible with damaging winds & large hail the main threats. Low 63. SSW wind 15 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 60%.

Wednesday...Showers & thunderstorms likely in the morning. Some severe storms w/ damaging winds & large hail possible. Severe weather threat ending by noon. Periods of light rain and/or drizzle in the afternoon. Turning Cooler. High 73. SSW wind 15-20 mph and gusty, becoming NNW around 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70% in the morning, tapering off to 40% in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night...Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers until around midnight. Decreasing Cloudiness after midnight. Much cooler. Low 53. NNW wind 10-15 mph.

Thursday...Sunny. High 74. North wind 10 mph.


Tuesday 3/29/11 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 57
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5

9a.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 66
Rain: 0%
Wind: ESE 8

Noon

Weather: Mostly Cloudy

Temp: 74
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 13

3p.m.

Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Scattered Showers

Temp: 80
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 17

6p.m.

Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Scattered Showers

Temp: 78
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 18

9p.m.

Weather: Cloudy
Scattered Showers & T-Storms

Temp: 73
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 16


Drew's 7 Day Forecast


Tuesday
3-29-11

Low: 57
High: 82
Rain: 20%
Wind: E/SSE 15-20


Wednesday
3-30-11

Low: 63
High: 73
Rain: 70% Morning...40% Afternoon
Wind: SSW/NNW 15-20


Thursday
3-31-11

Low: 53
High: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10


Friday
4-1-11
April Fool's Day

Low: 51
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 5-10


Saturday
4-2-11

Low: 48
High: 79
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10


Sunday
4-3-11

Low: 55
High: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 10-15


Monday
4-4-11

Low: 64
High: 84
Rain: 10%
Wind: S 15-20


...Marine Forecast...

Tonight....East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Patchy fog after midnight.

Tuesday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Patchy fog early in the morning. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north after midnight. Seas 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday...North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon. A chance of thunderstorms in the morning. A chance of showers.

Wednesday Night...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers.

Thursday...North winds around 10 knots becoming 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.


...Tide Data...


Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:

Low:           6:31a.m.            7:37p.m.
High:                         2:32p.m.                        


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    164.56'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Monday, March 28, 2011


Low:                55
Normal Low:   53
Record Low:   30-1913
High:               76
Normal High:   74
Record High:   87-1910

Rainfall

Today:                              0.00"
Month to Date:                 3.91"
Normal Month to Date:    3.21"
Year to Date:                 10.57"
Normal Year to Date:    12.01"
Record:                           2.72"- 1992


Significant Weather Observed:

Fog
Haze

One Year Ago (2010)

Low:     51
High:     71
Rain:     0.00"

5 Years Ago (2006)

Low:     57
High:     74
Rain:    0.08"


10 Years Ago (2001)

Low:    46
High:    63
Rain:    2.67"


Sunrise Tuesday:   7:06a.m.
Sunset  Tuesday:   7:30p.m.


Hunting Times:

6:36a.m.-8:00p.m.



...Lunar Table...

New Moon- Sunday April 3

First Quarter- Monday April 11

Full Moon- Monday April 18

Last Quarter-  Monday April 25


Have a great Tuesday! God Bless!
-DM

Status Quo for Now, but Significant Changes Next Week...

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Click below for the latest edition of the video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the complete text form of the blog.

SW Louisiana Forecast...Wednesday was another day of persistence with high humidity, warm & breezy conditions. Morning lows were quite mild indeed with readings in the mid to upper 60s, afternoon highs topped out near 80. It was another dry day with a mixture of sun and clouds across the forecast area. It was quite breezy once again as well as the pressure gradient remained tight between a large high pressure to our East, and a strong Spring storm moving through the Mid West and into New England. Some changes are on the docket beginning overnight tonight as the cold front associated with the traveling storm system pushes into our area. However, dynamics are lacking across the area, and strong capping remains in place in the mid and upper levels. Therefore, conditions are not favorable for a significant and much needed rain event. A slight chance of showers is mentioned for the pre-dawn hours as the front slides into the coastal waters. It will be the front itself that provides lifting. It is the lifting that will generate any scattered shower activity. Patchy fog will also be in the mix until the front passes through. This front is in a weakening state, but that being said it will have no trouble making it into the coastal waters. The front is also slowing down, and that trend will continue as it moves into and through the area. No significant rainfall is expected, and the ongoing drought will continue. Rainfall totals will barely be of any significance even where it does rain. All chances of rain will end with frontal passage between 2 and 4a.m. Temperatures will remain mild for most of the night, but a cooler and drier air mass will filter in behind the front in the pre-dawn hours. Expect temperatures at sunrise Thursday to range from the lower 50s towards Alexandria to lower 60s at the coast. A transition from an onshore flow to an offshore flow will be completed as well.

Thursday shouldn't be a bad day at all. The drier and somewhat cooler air mass will be in place with weak ridging in place. The cold front will pull up stationary over the Northern coastal waters, and begin transitioning to a warm front through the day. More sunshine that we've seen in the previous days is expected, however, some lingering cloud cover is possible especially near the coast where they will be in closer proximity to the front. The cooler air will be deepest North of I-10, so skies should generally be Sunny up that way. High temperatures will not eclipse the 80 degree threshold this time around, as the cooler air and refreshing Northerly breeze holds temperatures down into the mid 70s or so. This period of nice weather will be brief. This should continue into Friday with morning lows closer to seasonal values with mid 50s on average across the area. Clouds and humidity should increase during the day Friday as the stalled front over the Northern Gulf waters retreats Northward as a warm front. This front will slowly lift through the forecast area during the day, placing the entire area back into the deeper Gulf moisture once again by day's end. It should remain dry on Friday despite the passage of the warm front. The onshore flow will become a factor once again as well with breezy conditions in the offing. The effects of the marine layer will hold temperatures down into the mid 70s or so.

Dry weather will be with us as the weekend commences. We will be right back in the "soup" so to speak. The humidity returns with a vengeance with the warm sector moving further Northward. The influence of the onshore flow will keep mild and muggy weather in place for Friday night through the weekend. Overnight lows will be much warmer for Saturday morning when compared to those of Friday. Skies will generally be Partly Cloudy, and the potential for some patchy fog will exist in the pre-dawn hours Saturday. Anything you may have planned for Saturday looks just fine. The above normal warmth and high humidity will be accompanied by generally Partly Cloudy skies with some Mostly Cloudy intervals expected. High temperatures may very well exceed the 80 degree mark once again, and that is currently forecasted at this juncture. More changes are on tap for Sunday. Our next weather maker will be approaching at that time, and moving into range as the day wears on. The deep flow of tropical moisture will prevail, and will likely strengthen through the day in response to the usual pressure gradient. Any morning fog will dissipate by mid-morning. A general mix of sun and clouds is expected for now. High temperatures will reach or exceed 80 yet again after morning lows well above normal in the mid 60s. A few renegade showers are possible in the evening hours as deeper moisture pools over the area. A stronger cold front will be approaching, and an overall pattern shift will ensue thanks to a sharpening trough over the Rockies. Lift and instability will slowly increase as we get into the evening hours of Sunday. A slight chance of showers is maintained for Sunday afternoon. I still wouldn't change any plans you may have outdoors for Sunday. Most of the weather with this system will wait until a little bit later on.

Today's model runs suggest that the next trough and attendant Pacific cold front will be bearing down on the area overnight Sunday into Monday. This is perhaps a bit faster than the previous forecast indicated. There still seems to be good agreement from the models on a decent shot of shower & thunderstorm activity. Scattered activity will be expected initially, but overnight to around first thing Monday morning an MCS (squall line) of showers & thunderstorms should move through the area. This complex will likely form out ahead of the front over Texas during the day Sunday, and translate ESE as the front progresses. The main dynamics and greatest amount of instability should be over our region between 6p.m. Sunday and 6a.m. Monday. Conditions still seem favorable for the possibly of some severe weather. Some robust thunderstorms are possible with the main threats coming from damaging winds and hail. Isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out either, but this is something that still needs some fine tuning. I will increase the rain chances for Sunday night based on the latest data. The prevailing onshore flow will continue to pump the unstable Gulf air over the region. This system will definitely have a better chance of providing us with a decent shot of rainfall. Some areas could see up to an inch or so, but overall rainfall totals will vary greatly from one locale to the next  Rain chances will be in the likely category, but it doesn't appear that they will max out at this juncture. Most of the significant weather at this point may come in the overnight hours Sunday night, but rain chances will roll on into Monday.

Conditions improve as the day wears on Monday. The front should be slowing down as it approaches the forecast area. There is still some model discrepancy wrt exactly when the frontal passage will occur. The faster models indicate early Monday while the slower ones insist the front will hold off until late Monday afternoon. At this point, I will reflect actual passage before noon Monday, but with a slowing down of the front, it may take the moisture a while longer to completely vacate the premises. Cooler & drier air will filter into the region behind the front. The mild weather will be with us to start the day Monday with lows in the mid 60s. There shouldn't be much of a temperature range on Monday as CAA takes over. This front will certainly be a bit stronger than its predecessors. Highs should reach the mid to upper 70s. Winds will make the shift from onshore to offshore. The chances for rain will be toned down, but will be maintained throughout the day. Any severe weather threat looks limited to Sunday night at this point, but stay tuned.

Clearing skies should occur Monday night as high pressure builds in behind the departing front. CAA takes over in earnest, and the coolest weather in a couple of weeks is expected by the time we get to Tuesday morning. Morning lows should be in the mid 40s in the coldest locations and lower to middle 50s closer to the coast. Tuesday may well be the nicest day of this forecast period with plenty of sunshine expected at least initially. An overall pattern shift will occur next week, and it appears we will have a very quick turnaround towards the end of the forecast period. In fact, we may not make it through the day Tuesday without seeing some clouds return. Another system will be in the formative stages poised to take the Southern track in the middle to latter portion of the week. The previous front will stall in the Gulf, and there might be some overrunning involved by the end of the forecast period on Wednesday. The overall pattern favors a period of unsettled weather. Right now, it looks like the lack of a return flow will keep the threat for severe weather limited on Wednesday, but the chance for rain will return to the forecast. Temperatures will be around normal for lows and at or just below normal for highs given the cloudiness and periodic showers. A better chance for thunderstorms is looming just beyond this forecast period as a warm front surges Northward, and another strong Pacific storm and its associated cold front marches our way around month's end. This one could bring some rather robust weather at that time, but that is something that is still hanging out there in the land of uncertainty at this point. A late season cold snap is still looking possible in the early days of April.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  57/78  54/79  63/82  20 0 0 0 0 0
LFT   59/78  53/80  62/83  20 0 0 0 0 0
BPT   58/80  57/81  64/83  20 0 0 0 0 0
AEX  53/75  49/76  55/80  10 0 0 0 0 0
POE  53/74  50/77  56/81  10 0 0 0 0 0
ARA  61/80  57/79  63/81  20 0 0 0 0 0


Tonight...Mostly Cloudy w/ Patchy Fog & some Scattered Showers until 3-4a.m. then Clearing & turning Cooler. Low 57. SSW wind 10 mph becoming NNW around 10 mph.

Thursday...Mostly Sunny. High 78. North wind 10 mph.

Thursday Night...Clear. Low 54. Light NE wind.

Friday....Mostly Sunny early, becoming Partly Cloudy & more Humid as the day progresses. High 79. East wind 5-10 mph in the morning, becoming SSE at 10-15 mph in the afternoon.

Friday Night...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with areas of fog forming overnight. Warmer. Low 63. SSE wind 5-10 mph.

Saturday...Areas of fog early, otherwise Partly to Mostly Cloudy, Warm & Breezy. High 82. SSE wind 15 mph and gusty.


Thursday 3/24/11 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Mostly Clear

Temp: 58
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10

9a.m.

Weather: Sunny

Temp: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10

Noon

Weather: Mostly Sunny

Temp: 71
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 8

3p.m.

Weather: Mostly Sunny

Temp: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 7

6p.m.

Weather: Mostly Sunny

Temp: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNE 5

9p.m.

Weather: Clear

Temp: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5



Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Thursday
3-24-11

Low: 57
High: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10


Friday
3-25-11

Low: 54
High: 79
Rain: 0%
Wind: E/SE 10-15


Saturday
3-26-11

Low: 63
High: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15


Sunday
3-27-11

Low: 66
High: 80
Rain: 20% PM...60% Night
Wind: SSE 20-25


Monday
3-28-11

Low: 64
High: 78
Rain: 60% Early...30% PM
Wind: SSW/NNW 15-25


Tuesday
3-29-11

Low: 52
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15


Wednesday
3-30-11

Low: 49
High: 70
Rain: 30%
Wind: NE 10


...Marine Forecast...


Tonight...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west after midnight. Seas 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Isolated showers after midnight.

Thursday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Thursday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Friday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon.

Friday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Saturday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.


...Tide Data...


Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:

Low:         12:49a.m.            1:54p.m.
High:           9:23a.m.            5:42p.m.                        


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    164.50'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Wednesday, March 23, 2011


Low:                68
Normal Low:   52
Record Low:   25-1915
High:               80
Normal High:   73
Record High:   89-1910

Rainfall

Today:                              0.00"
Month to Date:                 3.91"
Normal Month to Date:    2.66"
Year to Date:                 10.57"
Normal Year to Date:    11.46"
Record:                           3.43"- 1973


Significant Weather Observed:

Fog

One Year Ago (2010)

Low:     43
High:     70
Rain:     0.00"

5 Years Ago (2006)

Low:     42
High:     63
Rain:    0.00"


10 Years Ago (2001)

Low:    46
High:    74
Rain:    0.00"


Sunrise Thursday:   7:12a.m.
Sunset  Thursday:   7:27p.m.


Hunting Times:

6:42a.m.-7:57p.m.



...Lunar Table...


Last Quarter- Saturday March 26

New Moon- Sunday April 3

First Quarter- Monday April 11

Full Moon- Monday April 18


Have a great Thursday! God Bless!
-DM

Persisent Pattern Prevails...

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Click below for the latest edition of the video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the complete text form of the blog.









SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Persistence is the pattern until further notice. We'll discuss further notice in a bit, but let's start with the forecast logistics for the next couple of days. We have been on auto pilot in the weather department since before we last spoke last week. A long-fetch Southerly flow continues to pump in rich tropical air. The main Jet Stream and current storm track remains locked up well to our North keeping all weather systems of significance away from the Bayou State. A large prevailing high pressure system resides over the SE U.S., and we find ourselves on the Western periphery of this anti-cyclonic flow. Hence, the onshore flow. As storm systems propagate from West to East across the country far to our North, the pressure gradient differential changes from day to day. The end result is gusty winds from time to time that are sending Gulf air into the core of the passing systems. The gusty winds and late night/early morning patchy fog and low clouds are about the only sensible weather to speak of around these parts at present. The period of above normal temperatures continues as well. It is another day of lows in the 60s and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s on this Tuesday. Skies were generally in the Partly Cloudy-Mostly Cloudy range. Weak high pressure also exists in the mid and upper levels, and this is also aiding in keeping us high and dry. The same players on the field tonight, and we will see another mild night with lows generally in the low to mid 60s. Some late night/early morning fog is possible, but I believe winds should stay up just enough for tonight to allow for atmospheric mixing to be a factor. Thus, dense fog is not expected. However, should winds die down more than expected then areas of dense fog will be prevalent. It looks more favorable for low clouds to be present.

Wednesday will be a day that features more of the same. Though, I suspect the winds won't be quite as strong with a system bypassing our area to the NE. Any fog will quickly dissipate as the March sun comes up over the horizon, and the low clouds will break up by mid-late morning. Skies will transition from Cloudy to Mostly Cloudy early to a general mix of sun and clouds yet again. High temperatures will reach or exceed 80 degrees yet again. It will be another dry day with the big upper level high holding firm while the surface high over Florida is shunted a bit further East. That same system will have its cold front trailing back into portions of North Texas. The weakening cold front will translate slowly SE losing more of its luster as it does so. Its effects will essentially be inconsequential on the forecast area. It should push into the area Wednesday night into Thursday. It will be a very weak boundary, and may just result in a brief wind shift by early Thursday morning. Mostly Cloudy skies are expected for Wednesday night, and the conditions may be primed for a dense fog episode with lighter surface winds ahead of the weak front. Mild temperatures will remain with lows in the lower 60s yet again. No rainfall is expected as the weak boundary limbers through the area, and some slightly drier and cooler air will infiltrate the forecast area for Thursday. The brief offshore flow will make it feel more invigorating on Thursday. The weak front will hover just offshore, so skies may not be completely sunny but the general mix of sun and clouds should continue. High temperatures will be a nudge cooler with mid to upper 70s instead of lower 80s. That'll be closer to seasonal for late March.

The weak frontal boundary will pull up stationary in the offshore waters Thursday night. The brief period of drier and somewhat cooler air will last into Friday before the deep tropical moisture comes right back as the front retreats as a warm front. Temperatures should be in the mid 50s for Friday morning with generally clear skies in place. It should be a fairly nice day for our Friday with plenty of sunshine at least early on. Clouds will return as the day progresses in response to the retreating front. The warm front will quickly usher in a return of the high humidity air and bring back the flow of deep tropical moisture over the area. The front will slowly lift Northward, so pinning down the exact timing that it will reach the I-10 corridor at this point is still out for debate. This evening's model runs show that most of the day Friday may be pleasant as far as humidity is concerned. High temperatures should generally be in the mid 70s or so. By Friday night, we're certainly back in the onshore flow with higher dew points and humidity nearly maxing out by sunrise Saturday. The prospects of fog will return to the forecast as well. Skis should generally be Partly Cloudy. Overnight lows will be back into the 60s with readings likely between 60 and 65 across the majority of the area. The weekend will start off on a dry note, but it will be unseasonably warm and humid. Saturday will feature the chance for early morning fog and/or low clouds. The fog burns off by mid-morning, and the low clouds will break up leaving us with a general mix of sun and clouds yet again. Afternoon highs should easily amass the 80 degree threshold...break out the shorts! Winds will increase once again as well with the main storm track remaining well to our North.

Some more substantial changes begin to take shape on Sunday. The overall weather won't change much yet, but the overall pattern across the contiguous 48 states will begin to shift. We will be marred in the deep Southerly flow for yet another day with gusty winds over 20 mph at times. A more potent Pacific storm system will be moving across the country, and this one is poised to take a more Southern track as the Jet Stream takes a dip in response to a sharpening trough in the Pacific Northwest into the Rockies. Sunday should still be a dry day with a mix of sun and clouds. There might be a few sprinkles or brief light showers later in the day with deeper moisture approaching, and a weakening of the upper level cap thanks to the approaching system pressing downward on the atmosphere. For now, a slight rain chance of 20% will be highlighted for Sunday, but this is certainly not big enough to go and change any outdoor plans you may have. Perhaps you might try out your kite flying skills this weekend. Some morning fog is possible once again with the deep flow of Gulf moisture in place. Morning lows will be on the mild side with readings only in the mid 60s or so. Sunday's highs may be a few degrees cooler given more cloud cover and stronger surface winds allowing more of a sea breeze influence. Expect these values to be in the upper 70s. Better rain chances enter the equation for Sunday night and especially for Monday.

We still need some rainfall across the area, and if the current model trends are correct this should occur late Sunday night through Monday as the previously mentioned Pacific storm system and attendant cold front moves into and through the region. Deeper moisture will pool over the area, and the upper level cap will continue to erode. Instability and dynamics will also come into play by first thing Monday morning. This could turn out to be our promising opportunity at some much needed rainfall since early this month. Showers and thunderstorms should initiate in the overnight hours in the pre-frontal environment. Scattered activity will be commonplace ahead of the front, then as the front draws near Monday morning I expect a line of showers and thunderstorms to develop and move through the forecast area. The early projected amounts of instability and dynamics suggest that some of the storms on Monday may be quite boisterous. A severe weather threat could very well materialize, but it is far too early to say this with any certainty. Just understand that we are at the end of March and this is prime time severe storm season around these parts. This system has the look of one which will be capable of producing severe weather with hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes across the area. Expect further fine tuning in the coming days. We certainly need and want the rain, but we can do without the severe weather, but often time this time of year, we get both. We'll see what happens. The mild conditions will prevail in advance of the front with morning lows in the mid 60s yet again. High temperatures will be somewhat cooler because of the clouds and expected rain with readings generally in the mid to upper 70s. Rainfall totals may be around 1" or so. Right now, the front should cross the area before noon on Monday. The chances for showers and storms will come to an end as the front slides on by. A strong onshore flow will be replaced by a strong offshore flow by Monday afternoon. Much cooler & drier air will filter into the region in the wake of the front. High pressure establishes itself across the Gulf Coast for Tuesday of next week. Sunny skies and a trend towards below normal temperatures is expected as this front may tap into some air from Canada. The end of the forecast period should be quite a contrast to where we are now with morning lows in the 40s and highs falling short of 70...more marvelous March weather. A period of nice and tranquil weather should continue just beyond this forecast period with the potential for storminess around the 1st of April. There are also signs of a late season cold snap in the first few days of April as well, so we'll see!


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  65/81  61/80  54/77  0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT   64/82  62/81  55/78  0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT   66/82  63/79  56/78  0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX  60/83  55/77  48/75  0 0 0 0 0 0
POE  60/83  55/77  49/75  0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA  66/80  63/78  57/76  0 0 0 0 0 0


Tonight...Partly Cloudy, Warm, & Humid w/ Patchy Fog developing after midnight. Low 65. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Wednesday...Early Morning Patchy Fog and/or Low Cloudiness otherwise Partly Cloudy. High 81. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.

Wednesday Night...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with some fog overnight before dissipating in the pre-dawn hours. Turning Cooler late. Low 61. SSW wind 5-10 mph becoming NNW after midnight.

Thursday...Partly Cloudy to Mostly Cloudy & Cooler. High 80. North wind 10 mph.

Thursday Night...Clear. Low 54. North wind 5-10 mph.

Friday...Mostly Sunny early, becoming Partly Cloudy. High 77. NE wind 5-10 mph becoming SE around 10 mph in the afternoon.


Wednesday 3/23/11 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Mostly Cloudy

Temp: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 8

9a.m.

Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy

Temp: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 12

Noon

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 17

3p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 20

6p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 15

9p.m.

Weather: Mostly Cloudy

Temp: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 7



Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Wednesday
3-23-11

Low: 65
High: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20


Thursday
3-24-11

Low: 61
High: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10


Friday
3-25-11

Low: 54
High: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 5-10


Saturday
3-26-11

Low: 63
High: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20


Sunday
3-27-11

Low: 65
High: 79
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20


Monday
3-28-11

Low: 67
High: 77
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE/NNW 20-25


Tuesday
3-28-11

Low: 46
High: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15



...Marine Forecast...


Tonight...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.

Wednesday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Patchy fog.

Wednesday Night...Southwest winds around 10 knots becoming west after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Patchy fog in the evening.

Thursday...North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Thursday Night...East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Friday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.


...Tide Data...

Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:

Low:                     12:47p.m.
High:           7:57a.m.            5:03p.m.                        


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    164.45'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Tuesday, March 22, 2011


Low:                66
Normal Low:   52
Record Low:   27-1915
High:               78
Normal High:   73
Record High:   90-1910

Rainfall

Today:                              0.00"
Month to Date:                 3.91"
Normal Month to Date:    2.54"
Year to Date:                 10.57"
Normal Year to Date:    11.34"
Record:                           1.50"- 1901


Significant Weather Observed:

Fog

One Year Ago (2010)

Low:     40
High:     71
Rain:     0.00"

5 Years Ago (2006)

Low:     44
High:     62
Rain:    0.00"


10 Years Ago (2001)

Low:    43
High:    71
Rain:    0.00"


Sunrise Wednesday:   7:13a.m.
Sunset  Wednesday:   7:26p.m.


Hunting Times:

6:43a.m.-7:56p.m.



...Lunar Table...

Last Quarter- Saturday March 26

New Moon- Sunday April 3

First Quarter- Monday April 11

Full Moon- Monday April 18


Have a great Wednesday! God Bless!
-DM