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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The latest Arctic intrusion is here. The cold front came through right on schedule today around the noon hour. A shield of rain overspread the area causing widespread rainfall through the afternoon hours. Rainfall totals were generally an inch or less. Rainfall has tapered off to intermittent drizzle and patchy light rain tonight. Temperatures ahead of the front warmed into the upper 40s to mid 50s, and have since dropped off into the 20s and 30s. The freezing line will continue pushing to the ESE through the night. Skies will remain cloudy through the overnight hours, and boundary layer moisture will slowly dry out. Any chance for additional precipitation seems unlikely. However, some patchy freezing drizzle/drizzle or very light sleet or snow flurries are possible. No accumulation of any frozen precipitation is expected. However, the big issue across the area will be the possibility of black ice. Most of the moisture from today's rainfall remains in place with wet roads, and some standing water. As temperatures continue to fall into the mid 20s or so on average by sunrise the remaining water will freeze, and create a thin layer of ice on area roadways. The main impacts will be on bridges and elevated roadways. This will create the threat for some dangerous travel for first thing Thursday morning. Use extreme caution when traveling late tonight and Thursday. The wind chill will also be an issue thanks to strong Northerly winds on the order of 15-20 mph at times. With temperatures in the mid 20s, wind chills readings will be in between 10 and 15 degrees, bordering on wind chill advisory criteria. A Hard Freeze Warning is in effect through morning hours Thursday. Make the usual precautions to protect the 3 P's from the elements.
A much, quieter pattern is in store for the balance of this forecast period. The Arctic blast will continue, but the overall weather will be rather uneventful. Clouds will clear out on Thursday, but clouds will hang tough at least for the morning hours. CAA will continue, and it will be a very cold day even if the sun comes out. High temperatures will only reach the upper 30s to mid 40s across the area. Northerly winds will prevail as Arctic high pressure slides down out of the Great Plains towards the Red River Valley. The winds will transport the cold air over snow covered ground to the North, not allowing for much modification at all. The black ice will slowly melt as temperatures warm above freezing by mid-morning. The continued strong winds, and a continually drying atmosphere will also begin to cause some sublimation. The sun should make an appearance in the afternoon as the strong area of high pressure continues to push into the region. Winds will gradually decrease during the day, but remain strong enough to keep wind chills en vogue as well. These readings should be between 15 and 25 degrees throughout the day. Now, as skies clear and winds decouple Thursday night the stage will be set for potentially the coldest night of the season. A hard freeze will be experienced all the way to the coast. Overnight lows will range from the upper 10s from near Toledo Bend to Alexandria to the lower 20s here along I-10 and mid 20s in the coastal marshes. Wind chills will still be an issue, but will be a lot closer to the actual temperature given the lighter winds. Friday morning will be very cold with the apparent temperature running in the 10s once again.
Friday will be a beautiful day with abundant sunshine, but it will remain on the cold side. The warming trend will ensue nonetheless. The Arctic high pressure will remain in control. High temperatures will certainly be warmer than that of Thursday, but still below normal levels. Maximum values should range from the mid to upper 40s across the forecast area. Winds remain light into Friday night as the high pressure only slowly slides Eastward. Another clear and cold night is expected with lows down into the mid to upper 20s again as air mass modification takes shape. The weekend looks great with a continued warming trend and nothing but sunshine expected. After the frosty February morning on Saturday we'll see highs easily eclipse the 50 degree mark, and as a wind shift occurs during the day it well ultimately turn out to be closer to 60 as warm W to SW surface winds help intensify the warming trend. The lower levels will remain very dry as well. The hard freeze from Saturday morning will become a fast, fading memory by afternoon with the enhanced warm up. Great news is that Sunday will be even warmer, so get out there and enjoy the weather this weekend! Nothing but sunshine is expected again for Sunday. Temperatures will continue their upward trend with morning lows around freezing. It will likely be quite frosty to start the day on Sunday. Afternoon highs will creep towards normalcy likely eclipsing the 60 degree threshold, even if only barely. With low humidity in place, it will feel great.
The period of Monday-Wednesday offers a continued warming trend. It will indeed be a nice preview of Spring, and leave many of us with a case of Spring fever. Monday will likely still be a virtually cloud free day with dry air remaining in tact in all levels of the atmosphere. The zonal flow will continue, and a Westerly surface wind will be present. Morning lows will be safely above freezing with readings in the low to mid 40s, while afternoon highs will be at or just above normal reaching the mid 60s. Valentine's Day 2011 looks to be a lovely day, indeed. Dry weather continues for Tuesday and Wednesday, but a gradual increase in low level moisture will occur. Sky conditions will generally range from Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy each day with no mention of rain. All large scale weather systems will bypass our region during this time as the controlling Pacific high acts as a blocking mechanism. The high will only slowly translate Eastward, and as it does so winds will bend back around to onshore. This will ultimately open up the Gulf of Mexico, creating the usual marine influence across the area. This may play a part in determining exactly how much we will warm up net week. The presence of cool continental shelf waters will inhibit our ability of reaching the 70s. Models still forecast this, and it may well happen, but for now the best course of action is to suggest readings in the mid to upper 60s for Tuesday and Wednesday. Morning lows will be similar both days as well with readings generally in the mid to upper 40s. Fog may become the sensible weather issue these mornings. The light onshore flow will be enough to create fog possibilities, especially given the fact that the length of nighttime is still greater than the length of daytime at this point. Our next chance of rain looms just beyond this forecast period as another cold front is progged for the latter half of next week. It is too soon to speculate on the timing and actual influences of the front right now. It appears that the second half of February will be much warmer than the first half as the Arctic oscillation trends suggest warmer than usual weather. We will not be completely done with winter after this week's freeze, but usually by the second half of February we can see the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel. Stay tuned!!!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 26/41 22/48 24/57 20 10 0 0 0 0
LFT 27/40 21/47 23/57 20 10 0 0 0 0
BPT 24/42 23/48 25/59 20 10 0 0 0 0
AEX 22/38 18/45 22/55 20 10 0 0 0 0
POE 22/38 18/45 22/55 20 10 0 0 0 0
ARA 28/41 22/48 24/58 20 10 0 0 0 0
*Hard Freeze Warning is in effect until 9a.m. Thursday.*
Tonight...Mostly Cloudy, Windy, & Much Colder w/ a Hard Freeze. A 20% chance of light drizzle, freezing drizzle or very light snow flurries. No accumulation. Patches of black ice possible toward morning. Low 26. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Wind chill readings 10-15 by morning.
Thursday...Mostly Cloudy in the morning with clearing skies in the afternoon. Windy & Cold. High 41. NNW wind 15 mph and gusty. Wind chill readings 15-30.
Thursday Night...Clear & Very Cold w/ a Hard Freeze down to the Coast. Low 22. North wind 10 mph. Wind chills in the 10s.
Friday...Sunny & Warmer. High 48. NW wind 5-10 mph.
Friday Night...Clear & Cold w/ Another Hard Freeze. Low 24. Light NW wind.
Saturday...Sunny & Warmer. High 57. West wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday 2/10/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Cloudy & Cold...Patches of Black Ice
Temp: 26
Precip: 10%
Wind: NNW 20
W.C.: 11
9a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy, Cold, & Windy
Temp: 31
Precip: 10%
Wind: NNW 18
W.C.: 15
Noon
Weather: Mostly Cloudy, Windy, & Cold
Temp: 37
Precip: 10%
Wind: NNW 16
W.C.: 22
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy & Cold
Temp: 41
Precip: 0%
Wind: NNW 15
W.C.: 30
6p.m.
Weather: Clear & Cold
Temp: 34
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 12
W.C.: 20
9p.m.
Weather: Clear & Cold...Already Below Freezing
Temp: 28
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 8
W.C.: 24
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Thursday
2-10-11
Low: 26
High: 41
Precip: 10%
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 10-30
Friday
2-11-11
High: 48
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 10
W.C.: 15-30
Saturday
2-12-11
Low: 24
High: 57
Precip: 0%
Wind: WNW 5-10
W.C.: 20-40
Sunday
2-13-11
Low: 32
High: 61
Rain: 0%
Wind: W 5-10
W.C.: 25-40
Monday
2-14-11
Valentine's Day
Low: 41
High: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: WSW 5-10
Tuesday
2-15-11
Low: 45
High: 66
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 5-10
Wednesday
2-16-11
Low: 47
High: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 5-10
...Marine Forecast...
*Small Craft Advisory in effect through Thursday morning.*
Tonight...North winds 20 to 25 knots becoming 20 to 30 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 feet. A slight chance of rain late in the evening.
Thursday...North winds 15 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Thursday Night...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.
Friday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday Night...North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Saturday...North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.
...Tide Data...
Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 1:30a.m. 12:18p.m.
High: 10:01a.m. 3:53p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.62'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Wednesday, February 9, 2011
Low: 33
Normal Low: 43
Record Low: 17-1933
High: 54
Normal High: 63
Record High: 80-1965
Rainfall
Today: 0.18"
Month to Date: 1.24"
Normal Month to Date: 1.20"
Year to Date: 6.35"
Normal Year to Date: 6.72"
Record: 2.83"- 1923
Sensible Weather Observed:
Heavy Rain
Rain
Light Rain
Fog
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 39
High: 53
Rain: Trace
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 42
High: 61
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 44
High: 72
Rain: 0.18"
Sunrise Thursday: 6:57a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 5:57p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:27a.m.-6:27p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Friday February 11
Full Moon- Friday February 18
Last Quarter- Thursday February 24
New Moon- Friday March 4
Have a great Thursday & God Bless!
-DM-
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