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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion....It was a beautiful Tuesday across the area with Canadian high pressure in control. There was abundant sunshine across the entire Gulf Coastal rim. This came after a cold morning start with subfreezing temperatures. Readings ranged from the mid 20s to lower 30s across the area. It was pleasantly cool this afternoon with temperatures right on target in the low to middle 50s, officially 53 here in Lake Charles. Changes are already taking shape tonight as the next vigorous storm system approaches. Cloudiness will increase as the night wears on, and as the strong cold front from the Arctic makes headway forcing will begin to increase. Convergence will also be on the increase. Temperatures will remain on the cold side, but not quite as cold as last night with modest WAA in place. Cloud cover will also help to keep temperatures a tad warmer. Expect skies to become overcast through the night, and the chance for some spotty showers will exist in the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday. Temperatures will range from the mid 30s to lower 40s across the area. It is possible that temperatures will bottom out in the mid 30s just after midnight, and then slowly rise towards morning as WAA increases in advance of the cold front. An Easterly wind will help to increase boundary layer moisture, but the presence of a return flow off the Gulf will be absent given the orientation of the previously controlling surface high.
Wednesday will be a very wet day. Rain will develop over SE Texas before sunrise, and translate Eastward through the day. Rain chances will ramp up significantly as the day goes on. Scattered activity will be expected early in the morning, but by noon rain will be in the likely category with widespread activity expected as convergence and lifting max out ahead of the strong Arctic front. This front will quickly sweep through the forecast area during the day Wednesday as strong upper level winds transport the front SE into the coastal waters. Modest warming will continue in the pre-frontal environment. Temperatures will rise into the mid 40s to around 50 at best before the front comes through putting a halt to daytime warming. The rain will be most intense and widespread in the afternoon, in the post-frontal environment. Additional Jet Stream energy will work in tandem with the cold front to conjure up cyclogenesis in the Gulf of Mexico. This low formation will be the result of a phasing of the Jet Streams. The Polar Jet and the Subtropical Jet will clash across the area. Overrunning processes will be in full effect. Thus, the reason for the widespread rainfall. Rain will be heavy at times, and there could be some isolated thunderstorms as well. Most of the thunderstorm activity will be elevated with greatest instability in the upper levels. Rainfall totals will be around an inch on average, but some 2" totals will be common across the forecast area where the heavier rain bands set up. Temperatures will start falling in the afternoon in the wake of the front. Temperatures will fall back into the 30s by evening and the wind chill will come back into play with readings in the 20s by that time.
The period of Wednesday evening-Thursday morning remains the only period of uncertainty during this forecast period. It will certainly be turning colder as CAA takes over in the wake of the Arctic front. The aforementioned Gulf low will also continue to affect the region as we head towards nightfall. The low will slowly push Eastward through the Gulf keeping moisture over the area, and rain chances on the high end. However, as the colder air becomes more entrenched over the area, and the low pushes further East rain chances will begin to taper down. However, by the evening hours temperatures may be cold enough for the rain to briefly mix with or change over to very light sleet or freezing rain. It is not likely that there will be any accumulations since precipitation will be very light at this time, and it will be falling onto a wet surface. This can certainly change, but all indications are there will be no accumulations across much of the forecast area. Any chance of accumulation in our part of the world will be along and North of a line from near Fort Polk to Alexandria to Natchez, MS. Some light sleet or snow accumulations may occur up that way as the precipitation winds down Wednesday night. A significant snow storm will occur across North Louisiana with snow totals of 3-5" expected from Shreveport to Monroe to Tallulah and Vicksburg, MS. There is the outside chance of a few snow flurries across the forecast area in the pre-dawn hours of Thursday into Thursday morning, but again nothing major and no accumulations. It will be business as usual around here. This will not be nearly on the same scale as last week's ice storm. This looks to be a classic case of the precipitation ending before the coldest air gets here.
The issue of frozen precipitation may be a very marginal one, but the issue of very cold temperatures associated with the mid February Arctic blast will be the big story. Freezing temperatures will return for Thursday morning with lows generally in the mid 20s across the area. Cloud cover will be present as well as cloudiness lingers for awhile behind the departing cold front and surface low. Any residual moisture in place will result in a chance for very light precipitation in the morning hours with the slightest chance of some snow flurries, light sleet, or freezing drizzle. The boundary layer will dry out as the day wears on, and all precipitation chances will disappear from the forecast by mid-day Thursday. It will remain cold, cloudy, and windy with temperatures struggling to reach 40 on Thursday. Strong CAA thanks to NNW winds over 20 mph at times will result in very low wind chills. First thing Thursday morning look for the apparent temperature to range from around 10-15 degrees, and these readings should remain below 30 degrees throughout the day. Skies will only slowly clear through the day Thursday as Arctic high pressure slides down the base of the Rockies. All cloudiness will vacate the region by the evening hours Thursday, and that will set the stage for a very cold night across the area. The Thursday night-Friday morning period has the potential to be the coldest night of the season. This is especially true given the fact that there will be a snowpack across North Louisiana. The offshore flow will continue to transport air into the area straight from this snowpack. The clear skies will result in radiative cooling processes. Low temperatures will range from the upper 10s to lower 20s across the area. Even the coast will fall victim to a hard freeze by sunrise Friday.
High pressure will be in control for the end of the week. The very cold morning on Friday will give way to a cold and sunny day as the Arctic air mass slowly begins to modify. Abundant sunshine is expected with high pressure in control. Light surface winds are expected as well with high pressure situated over Texas. High temperatures will warm up into the mid 40s or so. I am undercutting guidance which suggests lower 50s, but I am considering the snowpack to our North. An extended period of tranquility will begin on Friday. We will slowly come out of the Arctic air as we head into the weekend, but it will be another cold night with temps down into the 20s once again, but instead of lower 20s we'll be talking about mid to upper 20s across the area. The weekend is shaping up to be fantastic, we have to get past the cold start first on Saturday. Full sunshine is expected for Saturday with highs several notches warmer into the mid 50s. Light surface winds will continue with high pressure slowly moving about the Gulf South. The warm up will continue on Sunday, and it looks absolutely great for anything you may have planned outdoors. It will be cold again Sunday morning, with a light freeze possible across the area especially from I-10 Northward. High temperatures will moderate into the 60s for Sunday afternoon. Humidity values will remain on the low side with a dry Westerly flow in place. The overall pattern will shift from a NW flow aloft to a zonal flow by the weekend, and that will help to slowly erode the Arctic influence.
The extended dry period continues into early next week as the second half of the month commences. Atmospheric moisture will only slowly return as surface high pressure meanders about before finally pushing Eastward Tuesday. Plenty of sunshine is still expected on Monday with morning lows moderating into the low to mid 40s across the area. Monday should still feature plenty of sunshine, but some clouds may return in the afternoon. Afternoon highs will reach the mid 60s, but some model guidance suggests highs around 70. However, the marine influences will inhibit our maximum heating potential during the afternoon hours because of cooler continental shelf waters over the Gulf. Current water temperatures in the 40s over the Gulf will hold temperatures in check as the presence of an onshore flow slowly returns over the area. Fog may arise as a problem by Monday night into Tuesday with a more pronounced return flow underway. Tuesday won't be a bad day, but cloudiness will be back in place. A mix of sun and clouds is expected with no mention of rainfall with the area remaining null and void of any influence from a large scale weather system. Morning lows for Tuesday will be in the middle 40s or so, basically normal, while afternoon highs follow suit and reach the middle 60s again. Normalcy will be a nice change of pace compared to this very chilly start to the month of February. Looking long range, the next cold front will move into range around the middle portion of next week, and that should bring about our next chance of showers and thunderstorms. It is too early to tell about specifics of this front, and just how cold it may get behind it. However, the projected Arctic oscillations for the latter half of the month suggest that Arctic air will remain safely away from our part of the world.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 37/50 27/40 23/46 20 100 40 20 0 0
LFT 36/52 28/41 22/45 20 100 40 20 0 0
BPT 39/48 26/42 23/47 30 100 30 20 0 0
AEX 34/44 24/37 18/43 30 100 40 20 0 0
POE 34/44 24/37 18/44 30 100 40 20 0 0
ARA 38/54 28/41 24/45 20 100 40 20 0 0
Tonight...Increasing Cloudiness with a 20% chance of rain after midnight. Not as Cold. Low 37. East wind 10 mph.
Wednesday...Cloudy, Windy, & Cold with rain & a few thunderstorms likely. Turning colder during the afternoon. High 50 with temperatures falling into the mid to upper 30s by evening. Rainfall heavy at times, and possibly mixing with light sleet late. Rainfall totals 1-2". Chance of rain 100%. East wind 10-15 mph becoming NNW at 20-25 mph and gusty in the afternoon. Wind chill readings in the 10s and 20s by evening.
Wednesday Night...Cloudy, Windy, & Cold with a 30% chance of rain possibly mixed with or changing to light sleet or light freezing drizzle. No sleet or ice accumulation expected. A few snow flurries possible overnight. Low 27. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Wind chills 10-15 by morning.
Thursday...Cloudy, Windy, & Very Cold with a 20% chance of snow flurries, light sleet, or freezing drizzle in the morning. No snow or ice accumulations. Slow clearing through the day. High 40. NNW wind 15 mph and gusty. Wind chills 15-25.
Thursday Night...Clear & Very Cold w/ a Hard Freeze. Low 23. North wind 10 mph. Wind chills in the 15-20 range by Friday morning.
Friday...Sunny & Cold. High 46. North wind 5-10 mph. Wind chills 20-40.
Wednesday 2/9/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Cloudy
Temp: 37
Rain: 20%
Wind: E 10
W.C.: 32
9a.m.
Weather: Rain Increasing
Temp: 44
Rain: 60%
Wind: E 11
W.C.: 35
Noon
Weather: Rain & a Few Thunderstorms
Temp: 50
Rain: 100%
Wind: E 15
3p.m.
Weather: Rain, Windy, & Turning Colder
Temp: 42
Rain: 100%
Wind: NNW 22
W.C.: 28
6p.m.
Weather: Rain & Cold
Temp: 38
Rain: 70%
Wind: NNW 23
W.C.: 22
9p.m.
Weather: Cloudy & Cold w/ a Chance of Light Precipitation
Temp: 31
Precip: 30%
Wind: NNW 22
W.C.: 16
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
2-9-11
Low: 37
High: 50
Falling to 36 late
Rain: 100%
Wind: E/NNW 15-25
W.C.: 18-32 P.M.
Thursday
2-10-11
Low: 27
High: 40
Precip: 20%
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 10-25
Friday
2-11-11
Low: 23
High: 46
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
W.C.: 20-40
Saturday
2-12-11
Low: 26
High: 54
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
W.C.: 20-40
Sunday
2-13-11
Low: 31
High: 60
Precip: 0%
Wind: W 5-10
W.C.: 25-45
Monday
2-14-11
Valentine's Day
Low: 42
High: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: WSW 5-10
Tuesday
2-15-11
Low: 46
High: 68
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSW 5-10
...Marine Forecast...
*Small Craft Advisory in effect Wednesday.*
Tonight...East winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A slight chance of rain after midnight.
Wednesday...East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet increasing to 7 feet. A chance of rain in the morning...then rain likely in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night...North winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. A chance of rain in the evening.
Thursday...North winds 15 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 4 to 5 feet in the afternoon.
Thursday Night...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 12:33a.m. 11:51p.m.
High: 8:01a.m. 5:11p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.62'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
Low: 29
Normal Low: 43
Record Low: 19-1933
High: 53
Normal High: 63
Record High: 83-1911
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 1.06"
Normal Month to Date: 1.08"
Year to Date: 6.17"
Normal Year to Date: 6.60"
Record: 2.17"- 1990
Sensible Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 40
High: 63
Rain: 0.58"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 34
High: 65
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 54
High: 77
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:58a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 5:56p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:23a.m.-6:26p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Friday February 11
Full Moon- Friday February 18
Last Quarter- Thursday February 24
New Moon- Friday March 4
Have a great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-
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