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...Big Time Arctic Air is Filtering into the Region...Hard Freeze Conditions are Expected for the Next Few Nights...Conditions are coming into play for a rare Winter Storm Later This Week...
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...If the weather was a movie, it would be a drama! This drama might be an epic Oscar winner! Sometimes, Mother Nature has the flare for the dramatic. The much advertised major Arctic blast has arrived. Temperatures continue to plummet, and we'll be heading into the deep freeze overnight. This morning ahead of the front, some rather nasty weather was realized. Sporadic reports of wind damage and possible tornadoes occurred over portions of SW Louisiana and SE Texas. Here in Lake Charles proper winds gusted to near 50 mph as the squall line zoomed through just before 10a.m. If you blinked, you missed it, it was over by 11. The temperatures were in the 40s by noon, after pushing 70 in advance of the powerful front. All rain came quickly to an end, and skies slowly cleared through the afternoon. All that remains with respect to cloudiness at this juncture is some scattered low level stratus clouds and some cirrus clouds in the upper levels. These clearing skies tonight will help aid in the cooling process overnight. This will be a classic Arctic advection cooling event. The already dropping temperatures will continue to drop with the freezing line nearing the coast before midnight. Temps will continue to fall until shortly after sunrise Wednesday. Hard freeze criteria will easily be met tonight with readings ultimately winding up in the lower 20s. Adding insult to injury will be a continuation of the strong gusty winds that are ushering in this Arctic blast. Wind speeds on the order of 20 mph at times will create dangerous wind chills in the 5-15 degree range first thing Wednesday morning. Make sure to protect the pets, plants, and pipes, and also make sure to take the proper precautions for yourself when heading out the door Wednesday morning for work or school. Dress in layers and wear a hat and gloves. Wednesday won't be a half bad day at least from a perspective of sky conditions. The day will start with a good deal of sunshine, but as the day wears on cloudiness will return ahead of our next weather maker. Even with a good supply of sunshine temperatures will struggle to make it far above freezing with readings only reaching the mid to upper 30s at best. The wicked winds will continue creating wind chill values at or below 25 all day. The anticipated dangerous wind chills have prompted the issuance of a rare Wind Chill Advisory for the entire area for late tonight and Wednesday morning. This is just the beginning of this latest cold wave.
Before I delve into specifics here, I must say this: The next part of this blog entry needs to be taken with a grain of salt, and the understanding that the current current forecast will likely change multiple times in the coming days...
Temperatures quickly drop below freezing again by or just after sunset Wednesday, but the quiet and cold weather will stick around for a little while longer. However, at the same time we will be monitoring a strong upper level feature that is rounding the base of this latest trough situated over the Southern Rockies. This will combine with additional Jet Stream energy to conjure up Gulf cyclogenesis. The upper level disturbance will cause isentropic ascent (overrunning) to increase beginning late Wednesday night. Initially, we'll see the clouds return during the day Wednesday, and as the overrunning increases light precipitation will form towards sunrise Thursday. Temperatures will once again be well below freezing into the middle 20s by sunrise Thursday. So, that means the precipitation would be falling a frozen form. The question is what will the p-type be? Initially, it looks like the precip will be very light with much of it evaporating (sublimating) before reaching the ground since there will still be very dry air in place from the surface up through the boundary layer. The initial wave of precip will likely be in the form of sleet or light freezing rain with a warm tongue of air nosing above the surface in advance of the upper level disturbance. The warm layer of air will ride up and over the entrenched Arctic air at the surface. Therefore, it is prudent to introduce wintry precipitation into the forecast a little sooner than the previous forecast indicated. However, there is still much uncertainty on the timing and the type of precipitation. If the majority of models are correct, then we may be seeing light sleet or freezing rain on the morning commute Thursday. Snow appears to be out of the question at that time, but hang on.
The precip will not be continuous and should be on the light side Thursday as isentropic ascent and forcing slowly increase as the ULL begins to move, and surface cyclone spins up off the coast of Texas. Skies will be overcast throughout the day Thursday with off and on precipitation, and we might transition to a plain old cold rain for a short time in the afternoon if we rise above freezing. That is the forecast for now, but if more evaporative cooling takes place that expected or if the precip is more widespread than expected we will have a hard time getting to freezing. Highs will be in the mid 30s and the chance of precipitation is about 40% for the day on Thursday with better chances coming into play later in the day. The surface low gets cranked up overnight Thursday and the active Jet will push the aforementioned UL trough along. The disturbance will travel Eastward into Texas, and will work in tandem with the Western Gulf low to produce widespread precipitation, and could lead to a significant winter storm across these parts. A very rare event indeed for SW Louisiana. Temperatures at the surface will absolutely support snow, but remember you have to consider the upper level set up as well when forecasting snow. That's why there is some question as to whether or not the precip will be all snow or a mixture of sleet/snow/freezing rain. All models show a winter weather event of some sort, but still to varying degrees. My confidence is high that we will in fact experience winter precipitation, but the uncertainty remains high as to what type. This is the way I see it for now. Again, remember this can and will likely change one way or the other between now and Thursday. Precipitation becomes widespread by about 9-10p.m. Thursday night. A period of sleet seems likely from Thursday evening until early Friday morning. If the layer of warm air above the surface is deeper then freezing rain will be the likely precip type, however, if the cold air is deeper then the precip will be all snow even then. I feel at this time, there will be a warm tongue above the surface around 850 mb. (5,000 feet or so), and this will be a set up that favors sleet initially. The precip will have the potential to be moderate at times, and that can certainly be significant enough to lead to big problems around here. The sleet should transition to snow between 4 and 6a.m. Friday. There will be potential for some of the snow to be heavy, especially if the surface low creates enough forcing (quasi-geostrophic forcing) to produce some bands of heavy snow. Snow accumulations would be likely if that were the case. However, it is still a bit early to discuss specific accumulation amounts for snow and/or ice. I will make my first call on that tomorrow since we'll be within 48 hours of the event. This certainly has the potential to be a significant winter storm for this area, and it is a very precarious situation right now and a fine line as to what type of precip will be the dominant form. If it turns out to be a majority freezing rain/sleet event then a significant perhaps paralyzing ice storm may occur (too soon to say if it would rival the big one from 1997). However, if it is predominantly a snow event then we could see the most significant snowfall around here in many years. These are certainly all possibilities at this point. One other mitigating factor when it comes to possible snow accumulations will be the fact that we could wind up with more freezing rain and/or sleet than initially expected.
The most likely time frame for the fun stuff, snow, will come on Friday. The surface low will translate Eastward as it parallels the Louisiana coast, and the UL disturbance will distribute its moisture across the state as well. The atmospheric profile should support all snow at that time as colder air deepens. It might snow all morning and into the afternoon on Friday. Some sleet may mix in at times. However, if temperatures are a degree or two warmer then a transition back to plain old cold rain will occur in the mid-afternoon hours. I will pinpoint exactly who will get what and a timeline on tomorrow's update. The colder air will be deeper here over immediate SW Louisiana and SE Texas, so our chances for snow will be a little bit better than Acadiana's. Acadiana stands a better chance at a significant ice storm the way I see it right now. It is possible that this winter weather event will extend all the way into the New Orleans area with significant ice accumulations on the Northshore of Lake Pontchartrain back towards Baton Rouge. Further west towards Houston, it may be all snow. It could snow as far South as the Rio Grande Valley. The system has some parallels to the Christmas 2004 storm which gave South Texas a historic snow and White Christmas, and it also has some characteristics of the January 1997 ice storm, and December 1989 snow. How all this comes together is the hard part. Forecasting winter weather around here is not the same as forecasting it in the places that are accustomed to it. It doesn't take much snow or ice accumulation here to shut us down. It is highly possible that some sort of Winter Weather Advisory or Winter Storm Watch could be issued if the current trends continue, that is at the discretion of the National Weather Service. People have asked me if schools will be closed, again that's not my discretion, that is a decision that will be made by the School Board at the proper time.
Certainly, precip is in the likely category from Thursday night through Friday. I will mention the mix bag for now with possible accumulations. Again, I'll break it down more exclusively tomorrow. Tomorrow will likely be a deciding day as far as possible impacts and ramifications from this potential winter storm. In the meantime, forecast confidence continues to increase and everything is working in our favor for another rare winter weather event. The very cold air will continue as you would imagine. The Arctic air mass will remain entrenched with morning temperatures Friday in the mid 20s again, while I highly doubt we'll even make it to freezing on Friday. Models would be too warm if we get as much precip as they suggest. I will undercut guidance, but may need to lower temps even more Wednesday. For now, I will keep our highs just above freezing. Precip chances for Friday are upped to the likely category. There should be a break in the precipitation Friday afternoon before a possible third round, this time all snow, occurs. A weak additional vort max will rotate through on the backside of the Gulf low and produce additional light snow for Friday evening into Friday night. Temperatures will remain cold and any snow or ice that does accumulate will likely hang around without much melting. The weekend will kickoff on a very cold note, and whatever has accumulated will still be on the ground as the day dawns on Saturday. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 20s. It will likely be colder on Saturday morning because skies should clear overnight, and if there is any snow or ice that will help to cool us down even further. Sunny skies are expected for Saturday as high pressure will be back in control. A warming trend ensues with plentiful sunshine expected. Temperatures will warm up close to 50 or so. That'll feel balmy compared to the previous days, and will also insure melting processes will begin by mid-day as we warm above freezing.
The remainder of Super Bowl Weekend looks like a beauty. Sunday will be a very nice day. It will still be cold in the morning, but instead of a hard freeze we will replace that with a light freeze as air mass modification further intensifies. Sunny skies are expected yet again, and we might crack the 60 degree threshold. Winds will take on a Southerly component late in the day as the Arctic high shifts Eastward, and another vigorous trough organizes downstream. Moisture levels begin to increase Sunday night, but it should remain dry to close out the weekend and for all the big game festivities. Steelers or Packers??? Moderating continues as we start the new work week Monday with our next chance of rain as entering the picture as well. This time, it should be another quick shot, but it appears at this point it will null and void of any thunderstorms will the best dynamics well away from our part of the world. Morning lows will be well above freezing area wide, likely close to 40. Afternoon highs will be close to 60 again. The timing of the front is still suspect, and I won't be too specific about right now as we have much to worry about before we get to that. However, it is highly likely that this is going to be another Arctic front. Model output suggests that this front will be even more potent than the one that screamed through the area today. The front moves through quickly, and it will be sharply colder once again for the end of the forecast period next Tuesday. Hard freeze conditions will return at that time, with highs hard pressed to get out of the 30s yet again. That air mass will likely last for a few days as well, but it is too early to tell whether or not we will have more winter weather mischief in the offing for that period. Stay tuned for more on this developing winter weather situation!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 20/37 24/35 26/34 0 0 20 40 70 70
LFT 22/37 24/36 27/35 0 0 30 40 70 70
BPT 19/37 25/35 26/34 0 0 20 40 70 70
AEX 17/34 21/35 23/31 0 0 10 30 60 60
POE 17/34 21/35 23/32 0 0 10 30 60 60
ARA 23/39 25/37 28/36 0 0 30 40 70 70
*Hard Freeze Warning in effect until 10a.m. Wednesday.*
*Wind Chill Advisory in effect until 10a.m. Wednesday.*
*Wind Advisory in effect until midnight Wednesday.*
Tonight...Mostly Clear, Very Cold & Windy w/ a Hard Freeze. Low 20. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Dangerous wind chill readings between 5 and 10 degrees by morning.
Wednesday...Mostly Sunny early, with Increasing Cloudiness through the day. Very Cold & Windy. High 37. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Wind chill readings 10-25.
Wednesday Night...Mostly Cloudy & Cold with a 20% chance of light freezing rain or sleet after midnight. Low 24. North wind 10-15 mph. Wind chills in the 10s.
Thursday...Cloudy & Continued Very Cold with a 40% chance of mainly light sleet, freezing rain, or snow. Accumulations possible. High 35. North wind 10-15 mph. Wind chills 15-25.
Thursday Night...Cloudy with a significant winter storm possible. Areas of sleet, freezing rain, and snow likely. Accumulations possible. Low 26. NNE wind 10-15 mph. Wind chills 10-20. Chance of precipitation 70%.
Friday...Cloudy & Cold with sleet and snow likely. Accumulations possible. High 34. NNE wind 15 mph and gusty. Wind chill readings in the 10s. Chance of precipitation 70%.
Wednesday 2/2/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy, Very Cold, & Windy
Temp: 21
Precip: 10%
Wind: NNW 17
W.C.: 8
9a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy, Very Cold, & Windy
Temp: 27
Precip: 10%
Wind: NNW 18
W.C.: 14
Noon
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 31
Precip: 10%
Wind: NNW 15
W.C.: 22
3p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 37
Precip: 10%
Wind: NNW 16
W.C.: 25
6p.m.
Weather: Cloudy
Temp: 31
Precip: 10%
Wind: NNW 14
W.C.: 17
9p.m.
Weather: Cloudy
Temp: 29
Precip: 10%
Wind: NNW 15
W.C.: 16
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
2-2-11
Groundhog Day
Low: 20
High: 37
Precip: 10%
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 10-25
Thursday
2-3-11
Low: 24
High: 35
Precip: 40%
Wind: N 10-15
W.C.: 15-25
Friday
2-4-11
Low: 26
High: 34
Precip: 70%
Wind: NNE 15
W.C.: 15-20
Saturday
2-5-11
Low: 25
High: 48
Precip: 10%
Wind: N 10
W.C.: 15-35
Sunday
2-6-11
Super Bowl Sunday
Low: 31
High: 58
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5-10
W.C.: 30-40
Monday
2-7-11
Low: 41
High: 62
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Tuesday
2-8-11
Low: 28
High: 40
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 20-25
W.C.: 15-30
...Marine Forecast...
*Small Craft Advisory is in effect until noon Thursday.*
Tonight...Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots becoming north 15 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet.
Wednesday...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet.
Wednesday Night...North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 5 feet. A slight chance of rain and light freezing rain after midnight.
Thursday...North winds 15 to 25 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A chance of sleet and a slight chance of light freezing rain in the morning. A chance of rain.
Thursday Night...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 feet. A chance of rain in the evening...then sleet and rain likely after midnight.
Friday...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of snow and sleet in the morning. A chance of rain.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 8:14a.m. 9:11p.m.
High: 12:37a.m. 4:20p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.23'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Low: 27
Normal Low: 42
Record Low: 15-1951
High: 66
Normal High: 62
Record High: 80-1950
Rainfall
Today: 0.52"
Month to Date: 0.52"
Normal Month to Date: 0.15"
Year to Date: 5.63"
Normal Year to Date: 5.67"
Record: 4.14"- 1952
Sensible Weather Observed:
Fog
Thunderstorm
Heavy Rain
Light Rain
Rain
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 39
High: 49
Rain: 0.06"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 44
High: 75
Rain: 0.75"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 46
High: 58
Rain: 0.01"
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:03a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 5:51p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:33a.m.-6:21p.m.
...Lunar Table...
New Moon- Thursday February 3
First Quarter- Friday February 11
Full Moon- Friday February 18
Last Quarter- Thursday February 24
Have a great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-
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