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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Our latest Arctic blast continues to dominate the weather. It was an overcast and cold Thursday across the area. A low stratus deck hung tough in the wake of Wednesday's Arctic cold front. The low stratus deck was present as a result of a weak temperature inversion in the lower levels of the atmosphere. This morning, a minor disturbance embedded in the Jet Stream above 700 mb. known as a speed max rotates through. Since the air in place is very cold, it didn't take much of a lifting
mechanism to squeeze out all available moisture that was present. That is exactly what happened this morning, as some very light snow flurries, better known as, snow grains occurred from time to time at random locations across the forecast area. These snowflakes were visible, but of little consequence. It was a pretty sight even though it was short-lived. It fit the very cold air mass that is in place very well. I was lucky enough to have visual conformation of the snow grains in South Lake Charles around 9a.m. The weak disturbance moved Eastward, and the brief scattered flurry activity was an afterthought this afternoon with just the stratus deck remaining in place. Clouds slowly began to clear from NW to SE across the area as the strong high pressure associated with the Arctic air mass continued to build further South towards the Red River Valley. The strong winds transported cold air into the area from the snow covered ground to our North. Parts of Arkansas and Missouri were in the -10s to near -20 this morning with 1-2' of snow on the ground. Of course, the air is slightly warmer here, but with the clouds in place we didn't make it out of the 30s today. Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 30s was all we could muster. Wind chills were in the 20s for most of the day.
Skies have cleared across the entire forecast area tonight, and that sets the stage for a very cold night. In fact, this might turn out to be the coldest night of the season in some locations. Certainly, hard freeze criteria will be realized all the way to the coast. Winds will decouple as well dropping down under 10 mph as the strong Arctic high slips into Texas. This will create prime radiational cooling conditions across the forecast area. Morning lows for Friday will range from the upper 10s to mid 20s across the area. Lower 20s look good here along I-10. Precautions from the hard freeze conditions should be made for the 4 P's as usual. You know the drill at this point. This is old hat by now this winter. The clear skies and lighter winds will set the stage for one of, if not the coldest night of the season. The high pressure will settle in and temperatures will be around 22 or 23 at sunrise Friday morning here along I-10. The very cold start to the day on Friday will give way to a day full of sun, but it will remain on the unseasonably cold side with afternoon highs reaching close to 50 or so, give or take a degree or two. High pressure will be right over head, so the wind will not be much of an issue generally remaining less than 10 mph with an offshore component. Friday night will be another cold night with yet another hard freeze expected. This should be the last hard freeze for awhile. Temperatures will once again have no problem radiating down into the middle to upper 20s across the area. It should a few degrees warmer than Friday morning strictly because of air mass modification. A heavy frost is expected for Saturday morning as the weekend gets off to a cold and clear start.
After the cold start to Saturday, it will be a superb weekend. Wall to wall sunshine is expected on Saturday, and temperatures will warm up in a hurry reaching near 60. A few areas will eclipse this mark. The overall pattern will shift from Northwesterly to zonal across the Gulf Coast states, and this will help erode the Arctic air mass. A light Westerly flow will be in place at the surface. Humidity values will remain low. Another frosty night is on tap for Saturday night into Sunday, but only a light freeze is expected, and that should only be from areas along I-10 Northward. The weekend looks great for anything planned outdoors, and it should feel nice and comfortable for church on Sunday. After morning lows around the freezing mark, we will eclipse 60 in all areas Sunday afternoon reaching close to the benchmark normal for the middle of February, in the middle 60s. The humidity will remain low with the Gulf of Mexico basically shut down as far as having a direct impact on our weather. We should get through the entire weekend on a cloud free basis. I will go ahead and pick this weekend as the best weekend of the year so far.
Into next week, Monday through Thursday will offer a continuation of the benign weather. The forecast area will remain null and void of all large scale weather systems. All forecast models suggest no cold front moving into our area. Temperature modification will continue, and the weather will be on cruise control. We'll have a nice free preview of spring. Morning lows will rebound into the 40s for Monday and Tuesday, and reach near 50 by Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Afternoon highs will start the week out in the mid 60s, but crack the 70 degree mark for Wednesday and Thursday as it stands right now. Moisture levels will increase as well slowly but surely. Monday should still be rather pleasant humidity wise with generally another cloud free day on tap. However, by Tuesday as high pressure anchors itself to our East, we will be on the Western periphery. Thus, a return flow of Gulf moisture will commence across the forecast area. This will begin on Tuesday, and have great prominence of our area's weather by Thursday. As the return flow comes back into play, the chances for late night/early morning fog will also be on the rise. The marine influence will have a say so in that. Fog is still quite common around these parts through the Spring. While it appears that we are heading for a welcomed, warmer pattern, it is not safe to assume winter is over. The latter half of February is often the time when we time the corner around here and come out of the winter doldrums. That doesn't mean we can't have cold weather into March. We have had plenty of occurrences over the years where sub-freezing temperatures occurred in March, so we'll just have to wait and see. For now, it looks like we will be milder next week with the potential for our next chance of rain and storms along with a cold front likely not coming until the following week.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 23/48 25/57 31/62 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 24/47 24/56 30/61 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 23/49 26/59 32/63 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 18/45 21/55 28/60 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 19/45 22/56 29/60 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 25/48 27/57 32/61 0 0 0 0 0 0
*Hard Freeze Warning in effect until 9a.m. Friday.*
Tonight...Clear & Very Cold w/ a Hard Freeze. Low 23. North wind 5-10 mph.
Friday...Sunny & Warmer. High 48. North wind 5-10 mph.
Friday Night...Clear & Cold w/ Another Hard Freeze. Low 25. Light WNW wind.
Saturday...Sunny & Warmer. High 57. West wind 5-10 mph.
Saturday Night...Clear & Cold w/ a Light Freeze. Low 31. Calm wind.
Sunday...Sunny & Warmer. High 62. West wind 5-10 mph.
Friday 2/11/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear & Very Cold
Temp: 23
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 4
W.C.: 20
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny...Warming Up
Temp: 30
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 5
W.C.: 27
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 42
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 6
W.C.: 38
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 48
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5
6p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 42
Rain: 0%
Wind: NW 3
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 35
Rain: 0%
Wind: NW 2
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
2-11-11
Low: 23
High: 48
Rain: 0%
Wind: 5-10
W.C.: 20-40
Saturday
2-12-11
Low: 25
High: 57
Rain: 0%
Wind: W 5-10
W.C: 20-40
Sunday
2-13-11
Low: 31
High: 62
Rain: 0%
Wind: W 5-10
Monday
2-14-11
Valentine's Day
Low: 43
High: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: WSW 5-10
Tuesday
2-15-11
Low: 46
High: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: SW 10
Wednesday
2-16-11
Low: 49
High: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 10-15
Thursday
2-17-11
Low: 52
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday Night...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday...North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday Night...West winds around 5 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Sunday...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
...Tide Data...
Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 2:34a.m.
High: 3:52p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.76'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, February 10, 2011
Low: 31
Normal Low: 43
Record Low: 19-1933
High: 37
Normal High: 63
Record High: 80-1957
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 1.35"
Normal Month to Date: 1.32"
Year to Date: 6.46"
Normal Year to Date: 6.84"
Record: 2.06"- 1898
Sensible Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 31
High: 51
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 44
High: 66
Rain: 0.89"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 34
High: 54
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Friday: 6:56a.m.
Sunset Friday: 5:58p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:26a.m.-6:28p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Friday February 11
Full Moon- Friday February 18
Last Quarter- Thursday February 24
New Moon- Friday March 4
Have a great Friday & Weekend! God Bless!
-DM-
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