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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Anyone know the song "And the Beat Goes On" by Sonny and Cher? That's a little while before my time, but it describes our weather perfectly on this Thursday. There has not been much change, nor will there be much change in the overall synoptic pattern over the next few days across the forecast area. Another round of morning low clouds and fog was present on this Thursday morning, some of the fog was dense. Conditions were slightly different today as we just couldn't seem to shake the low and mid-level cloud deck across much the area. Only a few peaks of sun were noted, but that didn't prevent us from reaching the lower 70s as forecast. It was a mild morning with lows generally between in the 50s while afternoon highs trended above normal once again reaching the the lower 70s. The Southerly breeze made it feel quite pleasant despite increased humidities. Guess what? Tonight will be more of the same with quiet conditions prevailing. Patchy fog and a low cloud deck will form once again heading towards sunrise Friday. The onshore flow will prevail. The fog may not be as bad of a problem Friday morning as surface winds may not entirely decouple allowing for some continued mixing of the atmosphere. The main reason for this is an advancing storm system over the Northern Plains. Otherwise, the same atmospheric conditions will be present across the forecast area. Any fog will dissipate in the 9-10 a.m. time frame. The low clouds may hang tough for a little while longer, but increased atmospheric mixing should allow for more sunshine on Friday. The persistent onshore flow will keep a general mixture of sun and clouds in the forecast. Temperatures will reach the lower 70s yet again and our prolonged preview of Spring will help us close out the work week.
While a break in the fog should occur tonight, conditions will be prime for fog, some of it dense, in the Friday night-Saturday morning time frame. The distant storm system will track Eastward, and our pressure gradient will relax in the overnight hours. The continued long, fetch Southerly flow will keep Gulf air pumping in over the area. Skies will generally be Mostly Clear to Partly Cloudy until after midnight. Then, as the difference between the temperature and dew point continue to decrease, this is when the fog formation will occur. Fog may very well become widespread in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday. Dense fog may encompass a wide area, so keep this in mind if you are going to be out late Friday night or getting up early Saturday to go fishing or hunting. Other than the fog, the weather will be benign. Temperatures will continue to be mild with readings by sunrise Saturday generally running in the middle 50s or so. That's about 10 degrees above normal for the third weekend of February. After the fog dissipates by mid-morning Saturday, the dry regime will roll on. A mix of sun and clouds is expected for the weekend. The entire weekend should be rather decent with the same general temperature scheme in place. Morning fog may be an issue again for Sunday, but it doesn't appear as though it'll be as widespread as it potentially will be on Saturday. Afternoon highs both Saturday and Sunday should be in the 70-75 range while morning lows for Sunday will once again be in the mid 50s or so. It looks like a great weekend to get outside and do something with the family after church. We are making up for lost time with respect to weekend weather conditions.
Some changes are in the offing for next week. Models are more consistent on the arrival of our next cold front late in the day Monday. Ample low-level moisture will be in place, but we must investigate the upper levels to fully determine what this front will do for our weather. The current mid and upper level ridging processes will continue meaning dry air will be in place. The surface flow will continue to be from the South keeping deep tropical air filtering over the region. We will remain on the Western periphery of a controlling surface high. The front itself will be of Pacific origin with a general zonal flow in place across the NW Gulf of Mexico. It is the front itself that will generate the chance for a few showers in the pre-frontal environment Monday. Given the lacking dynamics and weak upper level support, no severe weather or a widespread rain event are expected as the boundary makes its way into the area. Monday should be a day that features more clouds than sun given the approach of the front. Just a slight chance of showers is highlighted in the official forecast. High temperatures will easily reach the mid 70s, but upper 70s are attainable given increased subsidence ahead of the front. We'll get into the upper 70s for sure if we see a good deal of sunshine. The cold front will move through the area, and into the coastal waters by day's end. Weak CAA will take over, and much drier air will filter in behind said frontal boundary. This front is of Pacific origin, so there won't be a real impressive cool down that follows.
Nice weather is in store for Tuesday with Pacific high pressure building in behind the front. Sunny skies are expected with pleasant temperatures. Highs will drop back into the mid to upper 60s while morning lows return to the mid to upper 40s. That's right smack dab on normal for the latter stages of February. This front should create a pattern shift. The overall flow will increase behind the front meaning a faster progression of weather systems as the Jet Stream begins to drop a bit Southward again. Going into mid-week, a quick turnaround is expected as the Pacific high pressure shifts from our West to our East in about 24 hours. An onshore flow will commence during the day on Wednesday. The deeper Gulf moisture will hover just offshore, meaning it won't take long for the muggies to return. Wednesday should start on the seasonable side of the ledger with lows generally in the mid 40s, but as humidity and low level moisture increase in the afternoon expect an increase in clouds as well. Afternoon highs on Wednesday will be back close to 70. A dry forecast is maintained for mid-week even with the moisture return in place. Now, as we round out this forecast period on Thursday we will continue to see moisture levels at the surface increase. Surface winds will also increase as the pressure differential comes into play. A stronger trough and attendant cold front will be taking shape downstream to our NNW. This front will remain away from the forecast area until after the forecast period, but enough moisture may be present by Thursday for a few air mass showers to develop as moisture pools over the area. This activity should be scattered in nature, and won't be a big deal. Temperatures on Thursday will continue to be mild with morning lows in the mid to upper 50s and afternoon highs back into the low to mid 50s. We are falling behind in rainfall for the year, and we remain in drought conditions. We can use the rain. Our best shot at rain for the foreseeable future may come next Friday as the previously mentioned front works its way through the area. This front will be stronger than the Monday front, but is still only expected to be of Pacific origin, so again not a big cool down will follow. This should, however, set the stage, for a fabulous weekend to follow (February 26-27). That will be good news if that verifies as Mardi Gras events will really be getting revved up at that time. There is no real sign of really cold weather anytime soon, but I still remain adamant that we will have another cold shot before we can really say it's Spring. Hard to believe we can already peer into the first few days of March.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 57/73 55/74 56/75 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 57/73 55/75 54/76 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 59/74 56/76 57/77 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 54/73 52/75 54/75 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 54/73 54/75 55/76 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 58/71 56/72 58/72 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Partly Cloudy w/ Patchy Fog after midnight. Low 57. SSE wind 10 mph.
Friday...Patchy Fog until mid-morning, otherwise Partly Cloudy to Mostly Sunny. High 73. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Friday Night...Mostly Clear w/ areas of dense fog after midnight. Low 55. Light SSE wind.
Saturday...Areas of dense fog until mid-morning, otherwise Partly Cloudy. High 74. South wind 10 mph.
Saturday Night...Partly Cloudy w/ patchy fog developing after midnight. Low 56. SSE wind 5 mph or less.
Sunday...Patchy fog until mid-morning, otherwise Partly Cloudy. High 75. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Friday 2/18/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy, Patchy Fog
Temp: 57
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 7
9a.m.
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 12
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy to Mostly Sunny
Temp: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 69
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 11
9p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy...Patchy Fog Forming
Temp: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 5
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
2-18-11
Low: 57
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Saturday
2-19-11
Low: 55
High: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: South 10
Sunday
2-20-11
Low: 56
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Monday
2-21-11
President's Day
Low: 59
High: 71
Rain: 20%
Wind: S/N 10-15
Tuesday
2-22-11
Low: 48
High: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
Wednesday
2-23-11
Low: 46
High: 69
Rain: 10%
Wind: NE/SSE 10-15
Thursday
2-24-11
Low: 56
High: 73
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
...Marine Forecast....
Other than fog, it looks good through the weekend offshore with generally seas classified as light chop. Winds will continue to be from the South since we are on the periphery of a large anti-cyclone over the SE Gulf. These winds will generally be less than 15 knots through Sunday. Fog may hover over the nearshore waters even during the daylight hours.
Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Patchy fog after midnight. Areas of fog after midnight.
Friday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon. Areas of fog early in the morning.
Friday Night...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Areas of fog after midnight.
Saturday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Areas of fog early in the morning.
Saturday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.
Sunday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
...Tide Data...
Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 8:35a.m. 9:04p.m.
High: 1:16a.m. 3:29p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.61'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, February 17, 2011
Low: 51
Normal Low: 45
Record Low: 20-1903
High: 71
Normal High: 65
Record High: 84-1911
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 1.35"
Normal Month to Date: 2.11"
Year to Date: 6.46"
Normal Year to Date: 7.63"
Record: 3.31"- 1961
Significant Weather Observed:
Fog
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 32
High: 58
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 53
High: 64
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 40
High: 59
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Friday: 6:50a.m.
Sunset Friday: 6:04p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:20a.m.-6:34p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Full Moon- Friday February 18
Last Quarter- Thursday February 24
New Moon- Friday March 4
First Quarter- Saturday March 12
Have a great Friday! God Bless!
-DM-
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