Click below to watch the latest edition of the video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the complete text form of the blog.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The same song, same verse of the weather song was sung today as it was on Monday. A bout of early morning fog and low clouds gave away to Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy skies by mid-late morning across the area. The fog was rather dense in some places across the area, especially between Beaumont and Lake Charles. Morning lows were at or slightly above normal as the modification trend continued. These readings were in the mid to upper 40s, while afternoon highs easily reached into the above normal category with readings in the lower 70s once again, except along the coast where the marine influence (sea-surface temperatures in the 50s) kept temperatures at or below 60 throughout the day. The onshore surface flow continued meaning only a continued increase in low-level moisture was in place. The mid and upper levels remain very dry with a large anti-cyclone over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. The overall synoptic pattern is acting as a blocking mechanism keeping all major systems far removed from the area. The quiet regime will roll on for the foreseeable future. Tonight skies are Mostly Clear for the time being, but you can expect around round of fog and low clouds after midnight. The fog will certainly have the potential to be dense once again. This is something to keep in mind for the Wednesday morning commute. Overnight lows will average 50 degrees or so as overnight minimums continue to gradually ease upward.
The morning fog may or may not be present in your neck of the woods Wednesday morning, there's really no way to pinpoint where the fog will or will not form. One thing is for sure, however, no rain will be found anywhere in the forecast area once again on Wednesday. The morning fog and/or low clouds (stratus deck) will give way to Partly Cloudy skies in the mid-late morning time frame yet again. The onshore flow will continue allowing for the humidity values to continue to increase. The marine influence will control the weather once again at the coast. Average highs will be in the lower 70s once again, but coastal locations will struggle to make it to 60 again with water temperatures running around 55 degrees or so. The fog will hover in the offshore waters all day long as well. Marine interests should keep this in mind. It will be another nice day if you want to have lunch outside, or take a walk or whatever. All significant weather will bypass this region until further notice. Look for a repeat performance in the Wednesday night/Thursday morning time frame with a better chance at widespread dense fog by this time as dew points continue to rise. Winds will be very light or dead calm overnight, and there will be a very small temperature/dew point depression. Overnight lows will be a few degrees in the lower to middle 50s as a whole.
Tranquility continues for the second half of the work week. The morning fog will be the only blemish. It is possible that a Dense Fog Advisory will be needed on any of the upcoming mornings. Virtually no change in the atmospheric set up will occur for Thursday. Temperatures will remain in the above category for both lows and highs. Afternoon highs will remain below 75, but above 70. A slight change in atmospheric conditions is possible Friday as the possibility of a weak surface front of the Pacific variety moves into range. All weather this week across the forecast area is moving from West to East, this is better known as a zonal flow in meteorological terms. Models do indicate a frontal trough in the vicinity, but it is believed that it will have a hard time passing through because of the blocking ridge to our SE. We will remain on the Western periphery of said ridge. Dry air in the mid and upper levels will remain in place, so no chance of rain is expected even if there is a front in the vicinity. The fog may not be as much of an issue Friday morning if there is indeed a weak frontal boundary close by because of stronger surface winds related to the pressure differential. However, a mention of morning fog and/or low clouds is still highlighted. Skies will transition to Partly Cloudy before the lunch hour. Expect a similar temperature regime as well.
Can we make it two nice weekends in a row? It sure looks that way. The same synoptic scale features will be in place translating into a continuation of the prolonged period of dry weather & above normal temperatures for mid February. The fog threat will continue to be realized as well with the onshore flow remaining deadlocked over the area. At the same time, an upper level cap will remain in place keeping dry air entrenched in the mid and upper levels. A general temperature scheme of lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s will dominate the forecast through Sunday. Skies will deviate between Mostly Sunny and Partly Cloudy, but be predominantly Partly Cloudy by this time with ample amounts of low level moisture in place. Any outdoor plans you may have lined up for this third weekend in February will get the green light. There is always something going on in beautiful SW Louisiana, especially with Mardi Gras right around the corner. Shirt sleeve weather will be quite enjoyable, and we'll be able to make up for lost time doing things outside that we have been deprived for much of this year. It will be hard to believe we'll be two weeks removed from a winter storm.
Some changes may be on the horizon looking into next week as we round out the forecast period. Models are still toying with the notion of a Pacific cold front (a weak one) reaching the NW Gulf Coast on Monday. This might stir up a few showers on Monday if the front does indeed make it here. The idea seems plausible, but the prospects of it occurring are still on the iffy side of the ledger. I will insert a 20% chance for rain for Monday given the expected frontal boundary makes it. Deep low level moisture will be present thanks to the persistence long fetch onshore flow, but the mid and upper levels will still be moisture starved, so even if there is a front don't look for a big event. We are falling behind on rainfall yet again. The winter rains have helped ease the drought situation, but overall drought conditions still persist. Nice and quiet weather holds true for Tuesday in the wake of the weak Pacific front. Temperatures will drop just a few degrees for both lows and highs, but the most noticeable difference will be the humidity. Relative humidity should be much lower on Tuesday with abundant sunshine in place. A very humid day is expected Monday ahead of the frontal boundary with lows close to 60 and highs approaching the upper 70s. The free preview of Spring continues Tuesday even with the curtailing of the onshore flow. Morning lows will drop back to around 50 while the afternoon high will be closer to 70 again. We will still be above normal even behind the front on Monday. The above normal temperatures & below normal rainfall will continue in the extended. Long range models discern that there may be a better opportunity for rain ahead of a stronger front around the end of next week (February 24-25), but that is something we'll watch to see if it materializes over the coming days. I don't see any extremely cold air in the offing anytime soon.
LCH 49/72 53/71 55/74 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 49/71 52/72 54/74 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 51/73 55/74 57/75 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 45/70 49/73 52/76 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 45/70 50/73 53/76 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 51/70 55/71 57/72 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Mostly Clear with areas of fog developing after midnight. Some of the fog becoming dense by morning. Low 49. SSE wind 5 mph or less.
Wednesday...Areas of fog until mid-morning, otherwise Partly Cloudy. High 72. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday Night...Mostly Clear w/ areas of fog developing overnight. Low 53. SSE wind 5 mph or less.
Thursday...Areas of fog until mid-morning, otherwise Partly Cloudy. High 71. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday Night...Mostly Clear w/ areas of fog after midnight. Low 55. Light SSE wind.
Friday...Areas of fog until mid-morning, otherwise Partly Cloudy. High 74. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday 2/16/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Fog
Temp: 49
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 3
9a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 58
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 7
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 13
6p.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 9
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 5
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
2-16-11
Low: 49
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Thursday
2-17-11
Low: 53
High: 71
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Friday
2-18-11
Low: 55
High: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Saturday
2-19-11
Low: 52
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 10-15
Sunday
2-20-11
Low: 53
High: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Monday
2-21-11
President's Day
Low: 57
High: 75
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSW 10-15
Tuesday
2-22-11
Low: 50
High: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
...Marine Forecast....
Tonight...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Patchy fog.
Thursday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon. Patchy fog early in the morning...then areas of fog in the late morning and afternoon.
Thursday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Areas of fog.
Friday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Areas of fog..
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 6:59a.m. 7:43p.m.
High: 2:47p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.64'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, February 14, 2011
Low: 45
Normal Low: 44
Record Low: 20-1905
High: 71
Normal High: 64
Record High: 84-1945
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 1.35"
Normal Month to Date: 1.89"
Year to Date: 6.46"
Normal Year to Date: 7.41"
Record: 3.25"- 1929
Significant Weather Observed:
Fog
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 33
High: 52
Rain: 0.01"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 52
High: 75
Rain: Trace
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 68
High: 81
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:52a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 6:02p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:22a.m.-6:32p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Full Moon- Friday February 18
Last Quarter- Thursday February 24
New Moon- Friday March 4
First Quarter- Saturday March 12
Have a great Wednesday! God Bless!
-DM-
No comments:
Post a Comment