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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...How bout this "lovely" stretch of weather? I have enjoyed a few days off after seemingly eating, sleeping, and drinking weather virtually non-stop for a couple weeks with all the excitement Mother Nature brewed up early this month. The good news is that our period of tranquility will carry on for the foreseeable future. The weekend was absolutely beautiful, and as promised it turned out to be the prettiest weekend of the year so far with plenty of sunshine. The mornings were cold with a hard freeze on Saturday, and another freeze on Sunday with a bout of freezing fog early. Temperatures have been moderating ever since Friday afternoon, and it is now seemingly unfathomable that we were only in the 30s last Thursday. We reached the 60s on Sunday, and top out right at 70 today. The trend from well below normal to above normal has begun. We are also in a drier period as well. The dry stretch continued today as well with more beautiful weather. After some morning fog, skies were generally in the Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy range. The quietness continues Tuesday. Fog is the only weather issue at present with areas of fog across a good portion of the forecast area. The fog will have the potential to be dense in a few places, but will only be a nuisance for a few hours. The fog will quickly burn off once the sun comes up, completely dissipating by mid-morning. Temperatures continue their upward swing as Gulf moisture slowly increases. We are on the Western edge of a large area of high pressure, so we have the presence of an onshore flow. Morning lows will generally be in the mid 40s to lower 50s across the area. This is just above the seasonal norm for the second half of February.
The fog burns off by mid-morning (say 9ish) , and we will have another decent day Tuesday with Partly Cloudy to Mostly Sunny skies at times. Some high cloudiness which drifted into our horizon today will continue to be present, but also some mid and low level cloudiness will scour the sunlight at times as low-level moisture continues to increase. The humidity will respond accordingly, but it will still feel rather pleasant outside. High temperatures will easily reach the 70 degree threshold once again, likely ending up a few degrees warmer than Monday with readings around 72 or 73. The Gulf breeze will continue as well as the controlling high slips further to the East. The overall synoptic pattern will not change much from day to day this week. The driving force behind all weather, the Jet Stream, has shifted well to the North, and ridging processes have overtaken a large portion of the country. This will keep all the cold air and any significant cold fronts away from our region. The taste of Spring rolls on through the mid-week period. Another foggy night is on tap for Tuesday night-Wednesday morning as temperatures meet up with the dew points once again. Light surface winds and clear skies wills set the stage for a mix of radiation fog and advection fog. The fog will be dense in some locales, but pinpointing where the fog will be densest is near impossible. The general rule of thumb is just allow yourself a little extra time to get to work or school Wednesday morning. Morning lows will be close to 50 once again. The process repeats Wednesday with all fog dissipating by mid-morning with transition to Partly Cloudy conditions yet again. High temperatures will average lower 70s yet again.
Goldilocks weather will remain in play for the second half of the week, and into the weekend. The chance of late night/early morning fog will be the only fly in the ointment as well. Areas of dense fog will continue to be possible with a long fetch Southerly flow in place. The humidity will be more noticeable by Thursday, but temperatures will still be pleasant. Days will be Partly Cloudy with the overall temperature scheme of lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s will continue. Highs will fluctuate between 70 and 75 daily through Friday while morning lows creep up towards 55. The models are split on the idea of a cold front pushing into the area on Friday, but this looks to be an iffy proposition at this point given the blocking mechanism that will be in place to our East. Rain chances will remain absent for the entire work week. It will be a great week to get out in enjoy the beauty of SW Louisiana. The current dormancy of our plant life and grass will be changing in the coming days with this nice stretch of warm weather. We have done well on rainfall so far this year, but we will fall a little behind for the year this week with no additional rainfall expected. I don't think anyone will complain after what we dealt with during the first couple weeks of the month. I still caution those of you with a green thumb. This spell of warm weather is surely a sign that Spring is around the corner for real, but we aren't quite done with winter yet. We can still have freezing temperatures into March. While there is nothing cold in the immediate future, I believe it is still too soon to begin planting.
The weekend will continue with Spring-like weather across the NW Gulf of Mexico coast. Morning fog with Partly Cloudy days will be the story. Major cold fronts will remain away from the area meaning no mention of rain for Saturday and Sunday. The above normal period of temperatures will hold firm as well with lows continuing to slowly increase over 55 degrees, while afternoon highs end up close to 75 with some locations reaching into the upper 70s. Closer to the coast, lower 70s seem likely because of the marine influence. Fog will also hover near the coast for much of the day as the marine influence has a greater impact down there. Rounding out the forecast period on Monday, a pattern shift may occur. The controlling and blocking high will slowly push Eastward, and a continued zonal flow (W to E) across the area will continue. A Pacific trough and associated cold front will be approaching. Moisture will continue increasing with above normal temperatures continuing. Fog may not be as much of an issue as surface winds will increase. There is some much uncertainty as to the actual timing and intensity of this front. However, it does seem likely that it will provide our next chance of rain and thunderstorms with ample amounts of moisture in place. The faster models indicate chances of rain will return on Monday, but the majority suggest the front will move in on Tuesday bringing the next decent shot at rain. For now, the entire 7 day forecast will remain dry with unseasonably warm temperatures through the period. I will hold off on rain chances until after this forecast period, with the expectation that our next front will arrive around Tuesday or Wednesday (22 or 23 February). While the consensus says our next front is on tap during the first half of next week, it doesn't appear that it'll have much cold air to work with behind it since it looks to be of Pacific origins. The nice preview of Spring may well continue for the rest of the month.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 48/71 50/72 52/73 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 49/72 51/72 52/74 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 51/73 53/74 55/75 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 44/70 47/73 49/74 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 45/70 48/73 50/74 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 50/72 53/73 55/72 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Mostly Clear w/ Areas of Fog after midnight. Some dense fog possible. Low 48. Light SSE wind.
Tuesday...Areas of Fog until mid-morning, otherwise Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 71. SSE wind 10 mph.
Tuesday Night...Mostly Clear with areas of fog developing late. Areas of dense fog likely. Low 50. Light SE wind.
Wednesday...Areas of dense fog early, otherwise Partly Cloudy. High 72. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday Night...Mostly Clear with areas of dense fog forming after midnight. Low 52. Light SSE wind.
Thursday...Area of fog until mid-morning, otherwise Partly Cloudy. High 73. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday 2/15/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Fog
Temp: 48
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 3
9a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 57
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 66
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 11
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 71
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 12
6p.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 8
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 59
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 4
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Tuesday
2-15-11
Low: 48
High: 71
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10
Wednesday
2-16-11
Low: 50
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Thursday
2-17-11
Low: 52
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Friday
2-18-11
Low: 54
High: 71
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Saturday
2-19-11
Low: 52
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 10
Sunday
2-20-11
Low: 55
High: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Monday
2-21-11
Low: 58
High: 76
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday Night...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday...Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight. Patchy fog in the late evening and overnight.
Thursday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Patchy fog early in the morning.
...Tide Data...
...Tide Data...
Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 6:11a.m. 7:09p.m.
High: 2:25p.m. 11:01p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.61'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Monday, February 14, 2011
Low: 40
Normal Low: 44
Record Low: 14-1899
High: 71
Normal High: 64
Record High: 81-1911
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 1.35"
Normal Month to Date: 1.78"
Year to Date: 6.46"
Normal Year to Date: 7.30"
Record: 2.67"- 1969
Significant Weather Observed:
Fog
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 36
High: 64
Rain: 0.14"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 33
High: 67
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 66
High: 76
Rain: Trace
Sunrise Tuesday: 6:53a.m.
Sunset Tuesday: 6:01p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:23a.m.-6:31p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Full Moon- Friday February 18
Last Quarter- Thursday February 24
New Moon- Friday March 4
First Quarter- Saturday March 12
...This Date in Weather History...
February 14, 1895: The biggest snowstorm in recorded history began along the Gulf Coast. The storm lasted into the 15th. A major surface low developed and tracked Eastward through the Gulf of Mexico. An extremely cold Arctic air mass was in place at the same time. This was the perfect set up for a heavy snow event in unusual places. Here in Lake Charles, the official snow total for the storm was 22" in a 24-hour period with 20" of that officially being recorded on the 14th. As much of 30" of snow was common in places across the Gulf Coast, with over a foot in many locations. The storm established the all-time snowfall record for the state of Louisiana with 24" in 24 hours being reported at Rayne. The snowstorm crippled the area for several days. Can you imagine what that amount of snow would look like, and what it would do to our area if a storm paralleling the 1895 storm were to occur again?
Have a great Tuesday! God Bless!
-DM-
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