Thursday, May 26, 2011
The blog entries focusing on hurricane preparedness continue.
There is so much to discuss with respect to hurricanes. Earlier today, I discussed some of the basic terms associated with hurricane season, as well as, some changes in issuing forecasts, and a look at the list of names for the 2011 season. I also described in detail each category of the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. This time I will focus on what to do before, during, and after the storm as well as what to expect this season, and take a look back at some hurricane climatology.
First, here are some important point to remember for before the storm:
You should have a plan of action in place for you & your family. It is important to discuss what you will do & where you will go in the event a hurricane threaten. The time to do this is now, don't wait until the storm is within striking distance.
When a hurricane is approaching, you will want to prepare your home and business from the strong winds associated with the storm. Do this by boarding up your doors and windows. Putting tape on your windows is not advisable. You should also determine if your home or business is at risk for storm surge.
If you decide to stay at home, determine where the safest place is for you to ride out the storm in your home. If you have a safe room, you should get some essentials and go there until the storm is over.
Make sure to review your insurance policies, and know what types of insurance you have (i.e. home owner's, etc.) Make sure you have your proof of insurance on hand if you evacuate.
Protect your valuables and irreplaceables, such as family photos. It is advisable to store them in plastic garbage bags to prevent damage. If you evacuate, it is strongly suggested to take them with you.
If you plan to evacuate, plan out your route well in advance, to avoid being delayed by traffic. Also, know where you are going to go, and make sure you have plenty of gas & cash available because services will likely be cut off in the impact zone, and you may have to stay away for days.
If you plan to stay at home, make sure to hoard away non-perishable food items & gas. You should also have a good allotment of cash on hand with the expectation that all utilities and services will be unavailable for an extended period.
Essential items to stock up on include: non-perishable food items, bottled water, batteries for flashlights, radios, and TVs, and a NOAA Weather Radio is a very essential item because it will keep you updated with official information from the National Weather Service. Stock up on first aid supplies as well. Plan for 1-2 weeks without the basics.
Persons living in a flood zone or along the coast should without question evacuate. These are the areas most at risk for storm surge flooding and the worst of the winds. You should prepare your property for the storm as best as you can, and leave as soon as or before the evacuation order is given.
Don't forget to think of your pets...Most out of town shelters won't allow animals, so it will be very vital for you to have a place to bring your pets to keep them sheltered from the storm.
During the storm:
It is strongly discouraged that you remain in the area during a hurricane, but if you do, by all means stay sheltered in your safe haven until the storm is over. Do not venture outside out of curiousity, or for any reason whatsoever. The strong winds are dangerous & potentially deadly if you exposed to them because of flying debris and falling trees and power lines.
Stay tuned to your local radio, TV, and/or NOAA Weather Radio for continual information updates & forecasts. They will notify you when it is safe enough to venture outside and do a storm assessment.
After the storm:
Keep listening to NOAA Weather Radio and other media outlets either by battery-powered radio or TV if you are in town, or via the internet if you have evacuated. They will keep you informed of what is going on at home, and when it will be safe to return.
Please wait until local law enforcement & emergency management officials give you credence to return...wait until the all clear is given.
When returning home, avoid any roads that are flooded, blocked, or barricaded. There may be danger ahead in the form of fallen trees and power lines or post-storm flooding.
When you return home, assess your property for damage. Carefully check your gas, water, & electrical lines for damage. If you have damage to report, call the proper authorities to get assistance as soon as possible.
Do not drink water or use water to prepare food until it is deemed safe. It is essential to make sure your tap water is not contaminated.
Electricity may still be out when you return home, so only use flashlights for a source of light. Do not use candles or open flames indoors.
Generators are a common source for power after a storm as well. Make sure this is only used outside of your home or office. Do not power up generators inside a dwelling because of the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning.
Only use the phone for life-threatening emergencies. Phone lines will likely be severely damaged, and a high volume of unnecessary calling will only make things worse with respect to the recovery process.
Be extremely careful if operation chainsawing and other storm debris removal equipment. Many post-storm injuries occur from chainsaw accidents.
________________________________________________________________________________
Next, here is some hurricane climatology. SW Louisiana has faced its fair share (unfair) of hurricanes over the years. This includes some very influential storms in recent years. There are several documented cases of hurricanes & tropical storms impacting our region to different degrees ever since records have been kept in the 1800s. Hurricane Audrey was the first major hurricane of record in the era since storms have been given names to heavily impact SW Louisiana. This storm used to be the benchmark for all storms on this area, but that changed in 2005 with Rita, which we'll discuss in a moment.
Audrey is the only major hurricane during the month of June to make landfall in the United States. It just so happened that it was lower Cameron Parish that took a direct hit. Audrey, by all accounts, defied the official forecasts, for a slowly intensifying tropical storm to make landfall within a couple days as a hurricane in Cameron Parish. Instead, Audrey underwent a period of rapid intensification and also accelerated leading to the worst loss of life of any natural disaster in our area. Audrey was a very large & intense hurricane with a 40 mile wide eye, and winds of category 4 status at landfall. Winds were estimated to be around 140 mph when the eye came ashore in SW Cameron Parish on Thursday, June 27, 1957. Hurricane force winds occurred across a wide area from SE Texas through SW Louisiana. Winds over 100 mph were experienced in Lake Charles. Over 500 fatalities were directly attributed to Hurricane Audrey. Most of those occurred in Cameron Parish due to the storm surge, however, the official death toll is still not known to this day.
Hurricane Carla impacted our region, although the most severe impacts struck the Middle Texas Coast. Carla's circulation encompassed the entire Gulf of Mexico at one point. It peaked as a category 4 storm, and created a storm surge of 7-8' across SW Louisiana between September 10-12, 1961.
1971 was another year in which a very strong hurricane impacted SW Louisiana. On September 16 of that year, Hurricane Edith, a category 2 made landfall in SE Cameron Parish. Most of the impacts from Edith were experienced across Acadiana with category 1 conditions up into the Lafayette area. The storm surge exceeded 8' in some areas of Cameron and Vermilion Parishes.
3 years later, Hurricane Carmen, another major hurricane with category 3 intensity struck portions of SW Louisiana. The storm made landfall on September 8, 1974 and spread hurricane conditions across much of the same areas as Edith did in 1971. Category 2 conditions were felt across Vermilion and Iberia Parishes with category 1 conditions into the rest of Acadiana. The rest of SW Louisiana experienced tropical storm conditions.
1985 was a very active year for hurricanes in SW Louisiana. In August, minimal hurricane Danny made landfall SE of Lake Charles in Cameron Parish. Minimal damage occurred, and storm surge values were 5-8' along & to the right of the center of the storm from Cameron Parish through Vermilion Parish. Later that same year, a late season hurricane, Juan, impacted and pestered South Louisiana for nearly a week. It struck in the final week of October 1985, and holds the record for being the latest occurring tropical system to strike Louisiana. Juan was certainly more influential than his August predecessor. Juan formed over the Gulf from an old frontal boundary. Juan was a very erratic storm, making two cyclonic loops near the coast of Louisiana. It dumped heavy rainfall across much of the area with upwards of 20" in some spots. Juan eventually moved offshore of SE Louisiana, and moved towards the Florida Panhandle as the calendar turned to November.
Hurricane Andrew was a very bad hurricane in a very quiet year. It is a prime example of the fact that it only takes one storm to make a bad season. In August 1992, August 24, to be exact, Andrew became only the 3rd landfalling category 5 storm in history as it bombarded South Florida with 170 mph winds. Andrew crossed Florida, and emerged into the Gulf in a weakened state, but still a very powerful category 4 storm with winds around 140 mph. Andrew steadily moved towards the Bayou State, and made landfall in the Atchafalaya Delta Degion on Wednesday, August 26 as a major hurricane. Andrew was starting to weaken just before landfall, and was also feeling the influence of am early season cold front which was en route to the Gulf Coast. Andrew was steered right at SW Louisiana for awhile, but a slight change in course further to the East in the last 24 hours before landfall spared SW Louisiana a direct hit. Impacts were minimal here, but points to our East experienced extensive damage including some strong tornadoes with an F3 reported at LaPlace.
It was about another 10 years before significant impacts from a hurricane were experienced in SW Louisiana. Hurricane Lili in October of 2002 made a significant impact on the region. One of the latest storms to strike the state, and one of the most powerful. Lili was an intense category 4 storm with wind of 145 mph about 200 miles offshore of the Louisiana coastline, however, from that point on until its final demise over land near Monroe, Lili started steadily weakening. Meteorological data suggests it was cooler shelf waters just off of the Louisiana coast due to the previous week's Tropical Storm Isidore, that resulted in the weakening of the once powerful Lili. Lili's ultimate landfall came at Intracoastal City in Vermilion Parish on Thursday, October 3, 2002. Much of the heart of SW Louisiana was spared significant impacts, but we certainly received strong tropical storm conditions along with some heavy rainfall. Hurricane conditions were confined to Acadiana, and inland to near Alexandria. Storm surge values in Vermilion Parish exceeded 8' in coastal Vermilion, Iberia, and St. Mary Parishes.
That brings us to the mother of all storms for SW Louisiana...you don't even need me to tell you what it's name was, Hurricane Rita. The historical season of 2005 was by far the worst season on record from a standpoint of impacts on the United States as well. With the images & destruction of Hurricane Katrina still ongoing and forever engraved in our minds, Rita, which at one point, was even stronger than Katrina lurked in the Gulf. The storm formed from a well-organized tropical wave near the Turks & Caicos Islands, and it steadily moved Westward towards Florida in September of 2005. Rita was in an amazingly incredible environment, and rapidly strengthened reaching hurricane status as it neared Florida. Rita moved into the incredibly warm waters of the SE Gulf of Mexico, and continued to strengthen over the coming days. All the while, forecasters had Rita pegged to make landfall as a major hurricane on the Middle Texas Coast, but it was surely to have some impact on SW Louisiana given the actual forecast track. To say that Rita impacted SW Louisiana, would be something short of an understatement. Rita not only impacted the region, it became our benchmark storm.
You see, Rita, didn't behave as forecasters believed she would. Rita was steered by a large are of high pressure along the Gulf Coast. This high began weakening during the week of September 23 as Rita was moving over the warmest portion of the Gulf of Mexico, the Loop Current. Rita veered further to the NW off of its steady W to WNW course, and aimed itself right at SW Louisiana. Rita underwent a period of record intensification with the pressure dropping to an incredible 897 mb. at peak intensity. Winds topped out in excess of 175 as the storm peaked on Wednesday, September 21, 2005. Rita was a category 5, the same as Katrina was 3 weeks prior to. Everyone was on edge, and the largest evacuation ever of SW Louisiana occurred. Nearly everyone in the 5 parish area got out of the storm's way beginning on Thursday the 22nd. A mandatory evacuation was ordered for Calcasieu Parish and for the entire city of Lake Charles for the first time in history. It was feared that Rita would remain a very serious category 4 hurricane until landfall, with the potential to reach the coast as a category 5. However, Rita did weaken, but it was still a major hurricane of category 3 intensity at landfall. Landfall occurred at 2:38a.m. on Saturday, September 24, 2005 near Johnson Bayon in SW Cameron Parish. Rita's official wind speed at landfall was near 120 mph, although there were many gusts reported that were into category 4 range.
Rita's storm surge was 10-15' just to the East of the storm, and this literally obliterated our beautiful coastal towns from Holly Beach and Cameron over to Pecan Island. The storm surge was so bad, that it reached as far North as I-10 in Lake Charles with water from the Gulf backing up the Calcasieu River. Water levels were 6-8' deep in downtown Lake Charles, and storm surge flooding nearly reached the Lake Charles Regional Airport south of town. Extensive wind damage occurred across the entire region from Beaumont to Lafayette. Rita was a huge storm with an extensive wind field, thus hurricane force winds were experienced in the same area mentioned a moment ago, and as far inland as Jasper, TX over to Alexandria. As is always the case with a landfalling tropical system, Rita produced spin off tornadoes along and to the right of the eye. To this day it is unknown how many spin off tornadoes occurred, though there were possibly over 100. Winds in the Lake Area exceeded hurricane force for over 12 hours with 6 of the hours with winds over 100 mph. Tropical storm force winds were experienced for over 24 hours. Tropical storm conditions ensued during the afternoon hours of Friday, September 23, and didn't drop below the 40 mph threshold until late in the day on Saturday the 24th. The center of circulation tracked pretty much right up the Sabine River after landfall, and the eyewall was so big that the Eastern edge of the eyewall moved right over Lake Charles. Places such as Orange and Vinton experienced the virtual calm of the storm. Hurricane Rita was by far the worst natural disaster to ever strike this area, and is now this area's benchmark storm. It has taken parts of the area many years to recover since this powerful hurricane, and coastal Cameron Parish will likely never be the same again. Thankfully, the death toll from Rita was minimal with only 7 indirect fatalities here locally. Much of this is believed to be attributed to the large evacuation that ensued in the preceding days and because of what Hurricane Katrina did to SE Louisiana & South Mississippi.
It had been 48 years since a major hurricane struck SW Louisiana (Audrey in 1957). However, it was only 2 short years later before another history making hurricane affected the area. It was historical from a different standpoint. I am talking about Hurricane Humberto in September of 2007. Humberto formed from an old frontal boundary over the Central Gulf waters, and was upgraded to a Tropical Depression on September 12. Humberto has the distinguished record of taking the shortest amount of time to go from a Tropical Depression to a Hurricane, a mere 12 hours. Humberto was a small, tightly compacted storm, and made landfall as a category 1 storm with 80 mph winds early on the morning of Thursday, September 13, 2007 in Jefferson County in SE Texas (Sea Rim State Park). The center of circulation tracked over the Western half of Calcasieu Parish later in the morning.
A year later, Louisiana experienced another very bad season as 2 significant storms impacted our state. Hurricane Gustav made landfall on Labor Day, September 1, 2008, and was at one time a very powerful category 4 storm that ravaged Cuba. Gustav never regained the stature that it had previously before impacting Cuba, however, it remained a high end category 2, and showed signs of re-strengthening as it approached the SE Louisiana coast near Houma around mid-morning. The eye of Gustav moved virtaully up the Highway 90 corridor towards Lafayette remaining a hurricane until it was near Opelousas. By far, the worst impacts from Gustav were over the Atchafalaya region, but category 1 impacts were felt into much of Acadiana and parts of Central Louisiana. A serious flood event developed as Gustav slowly spun down while moving NW through Cenla and into NW Louisiana. The Lake Area experienced some low end tropical storm conditions with winds in the 40-50 mph range, and some sqaully weather. There was quite a few spin off tornadoes across the Eastern half of the forecast area that added to the damage from Gustav.
Finally, the most recent storm to impact our great state is Hurricane Ike. Ike was a huge storm. It, too was at one time a category 4 storm and also wreaked havoc in Cuba. Ike actually formed in the wide open Atlantic the same day that Gustav made landfall. Ike traveled steadily Westward, and was bound for the Gulf of Mexico. It became evident as Ike moved into the warm waters of the SE Gulf of Mexico, that some impacts would be felt across our region, and it looked like this would be a more significant storm for our area than Gustav was. Little did we know, that would turn out to be right, and then some. Ike was so massive and so slow moving, that it produced record storm surge flooding across nearly the entire state. It threatened to breach the levees which were still being repaired in SE Louisiana. It produced water levels that were a foot or two higher in SW Louisiana, than they were during Hurricane Rita. The storm surge flooding virtually wiped out all of the ongoing rebuilding along the coast. Ike's storm surge resulted in the flooding of more than half of the city of Lake Charles. Many places which didn't flood during Rita, flooded for the first time ever during Ike. Ike made landfall at Galveston early on Saturday, September 13.
While the wind impacts were not nearly as significant across SW Louisiana, hurricane force gusts occurred at Lake Charles with sustained hurricane force winds experienced at Cameron. Highest wind gusts were near 80 mph at Lake Charles, and near 100 mph at Cameron. Ike was a borderline category 3 storm at landfall, and heavily impacted the urban areas of SE Texas. Extensive damage occurred from Galveston to Houston over to Beaumont. Most structures along the coast at Galveston were destroyed. Ike brought the record flooding and some heavy rainfall, and minor structural damage to this forecast area, and also produced one of the largest post-tropical tornado outbreaks across the area. The storm nearly paralleled the coast as its lumbered its way towards Galveston, and that was one of the main reasons why there was a record storm surge. The storm surge flooding across the Gulf Coast was comparable to monster Carla back in 1961, even though Ike's wind intensity didn't even come close to paralleling some of its predecessors at least not at landfall. What you should remember about Rita and Ike is that while they may have weakened some before hitting the coast, they still carried with them a category 4-5 storm surge because it takes longer for the water to calm down than it does for the wind. That is one of the reasons why some modifications were made to the Saffir-Simpson scale.
These are some prime examples of hurricanes that impacted our region. Certainly, we will be impacted again down the road. However, no one knows when that will be. That's why it's essential to always be prepared. We have enjoyed some much needed tropical tranquility across our state for the past two seasons, and hopefully we will do so again this season, but there's no guarantee. This is a great segue into the final portion of these hurricane preparedness blogs.
_________________________________________________________________________________
It is time to give my thoughts on this upcoming season. As you know, the season begins next Wednesday, June 1, and while that doesn't mean we will see some activity right out of the chute, it does mean it is that time of the year when everyone's predictions are running rampant. It is possible for some early season activity, but every year is different, and so are the atmospheric conditions over the tropical Atlantic basin. It is the atmospheric conditions above the warm waters that dictate what will occur. We are coming out of a La Nina pattern, and that typically means we will have an above average season. That is certainly what the experts at NOAA and Colorado State University suggest. I don't argue that point, their thinking is logical based on two key factors. The first one is the waning La Nina. This La Nina results in wind patterns that keep the Atlantic basin temperatures a bit warmer than average, and warm SSTs above 80 degrees is one of the key ingredients for tropical cyclone formation. The second factor that validates the pre-season forecast is the fact that we remain in a cycle of enhanced tropical cyclone activity. This is quite common with tropical activity, for us to go through a 15-30 year cycle of average to above average seasons, followed by a 15-30 period of below average to average seasons. We began this period of enhanced activity back in the mid 1990s, so again it makes sense.
I am not a big fan of the numbers, because so often people want to focus on the projected numbers, and forget the fact that a number is just irrelevant when it comes to hurricanes. There could be 20 storms, but if all of them have little or no impact on the United States, who remembers them. However, there could be 1 storm for the whole season, and it could be a category 5 with huge implications for wherever it made landfall, and we would remember that forever. For example, as I cited earlier the 1992 season was a very quiet one from a standpoint of number of storms, however, one of the worst hurricanes in history occurred in August of that year when Andrew, a category 5 hit South Florida. On the other hand, in 2005 we set a new record for the most storms ever in one season in the Atlantic Basin when 28 named storms formed. It was the only time in history that we completed a list of names for the season, and had to use the Greek alphabet. However, no one really remembers that we had 28 storms. Most people remember 3...Katrina, Rita, & Wilma. So, you see that's why I don't put much stock in numbers, and always urge you to remember my seasonal disclaimer..."It doesn't matter how many there are, it matters where they go." No one knows where a storm will go until it is on the board. There is absolutely no skill in predicting who will receive a direct hit from a tropical cyclone in any given year without the presence of a storm to understand what the current atmospheric environment is.
The expert forecasts call for between 15-18 named storms with 9 hurricanes, 5 of those becoming major hurricanes. The normals or 9-12, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. There were 19 named storms in 2010. A major hurricane is of category 3 intensity or higher. Now, here are my thoughts on the upcoming season. I believe that it will be an above average year given the present La Nina, and the ongoing cycle of enhanced development. However, I will not put a number on it for reasons cited a few moments ago. I should also mention that I know many people have a sense of uneasiness about this season with all of the devastating tornadoes and spring storms we have seen in the recent days and weeks. It makes you wonder if the hurricanes are going to be very violent this season, or more violent than usual. There is no way of knowing that for sure. There's no skill in forecasting intensity either when it comes to hurricanes. There are often some correlations between different events in meteorology, however, you must understand that there is no correlation between severe spring storms and tropical activity. The main reason for this is because the atmospheric conditions that fuel hurricanes are completely different from those that trigger the intense spring storms. Also, the ingredients for the spring storms always congeal over land, while everything for tropical activity always originates over water. Upper level wind pattern can be entirely different over water than they are over land, and they can vary from day to day and even hour to hour in some instances. So, rest assured there is no correlation, and no one can predict the intensity of a tropical cyclone based on weather events that happened during non-tropical seasons. The experts say there is an increased risk of a major hurricane striking the Gulf of Mexico this year as well, this is possible, but I wouldn't go so far as to say that. Only God knows what will really happen, let's leave it up to Him, and just be prepared either way.
_________________________________________________________________________________
In closing, as has become the tradition since Rita, I want to close with something you can print out and use in your home or office this season and every season...The Hurricane Prayer. The same prayer that stays posted in the right hand margin of this blog. I want to post it here, and say it in closing. Pray this as often as you wish either silently by yourself or with your family. I know some churches have begun saying it in mass or different services over the past few years. This prayer was written in 1957 after the devastation of Hurricane Audrey. It was penned by Bishop Maurice Schexnayder of Lafayette. Lake Charles was part of the Lafayette diocese at that time.
In the name of the Father, the Son, & the Holy Spirit...
O God, Master of this passing world hear the humble voices of your
children.
The Sea of Galilee obeyed Your order and returned to its former
quietide.
You are still the Master of land and sea.
We live in the shadow of a danger over which we have no control, the
Gulf, like a provoked and angry giant, can awaken from its seeming
lethargy, overstep its conventional boundaries, invade our land and
spread chaos and disaster.
During this hurricane season we turn to You, O loving Father. Spare us
from past tragedies whose memories are still so vivid and whose wounds
seem to refuse to heal with passing of time.
O Virgin, Star of the Sea, Our Beloved Mother, we ask you to please with
your Son in our behalf, so that spared from the calamities common to
this area and animated with a true spirit of gratitude, we will walk in
the footsteps of your Divine Son to reach the heavenly Jerusalem where a
stormless eternity awaits us.
In the name of the Father, the Son, & the Holy Spirit...Amen!
God bless SW Louisiana & all of us in the hurricane zone this season!
-DM-
Friday, May 27, 2011
Thursday, May 26, 2011
Hurricane Preperadeness...
Thursday, May 26, 2011
It is that time of year again. This week May 22-28 has been officially recognized as Hurricane Preparedness Week.We are less than a week away from the start of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The season officially starts on Wednesday, June 1 and concludes on Wednesday November 30. The purpose of this blog post is to provide you with pertinent information you need to be prepared should a storm target SW Louisiana during the upcoming season. I will break it up into parts to make it easier for you to read. The first parts that I will post this morning will include common terms we associate with tropical cyclones, some do's and dont's from before, during, and after a storm. I will also go ahead and list the cycle of names for the 2011 season, and conclude with my personal thoughts on the upcoming season. Many people are on edge, and understandably so, with the storms of recent years still heavy on our minds, and all of the violent tornadoes that been occurring in recent days and weeks. I will try to calm your fears just a bit in that regard in a few moments. Without further delay, let's get started...be sure to scroll down for the whole post. Additional information will be posted tonight.
It is essential to have a better understanding of not only hurricanes, but all tropical systems in general. One way to become more knowledgeable of these meteorological entities is to understand and know the meaning of certain terms we use over the course of the season.
As you know, tropical systems are divided into 3 stages for naming purposes: tropical depression, tropical storm, and hurricane. However, it can be taken further as all of these tropical systems begin from what is known as a tropical wave or tropical disturbance. Let's define each one.
Tropical Disturbance- An area of disorganized low pressure that develops in the Atlantic Basin, that is, the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Atlantic Ocean. It generally evolves from a persistent area of thunderstorms, and lowering pressures over the Atlantic Basin.
Tropical Depression- An organized low pressure system with organized clouds and thunderstorms. It has sustained surface winds of 38 mph or less.
Tropical Storm- An organized low pressure system with organized clouds and intense rainfall. It has sustained surface winds of 39-73 mph.
Hurricane- The most intense of the tropical cyclones. It produced very heavy rainfall, and sustained surface winds must be at least 74 mph.
Hurricane intensity is measured using the Saffir-Simpson scale. It is broken down into 5 categories.
Category 1 74-95 mph. Minimal damage will result such as downed trees and power lines. Damage to poorly constructed mobile homes is possible. Minor roof damage possible to some well-built homes. Some signs could be damaged. Injury or death to people and animals can occur if debris falls on or hits them. Example of a category 1 storm (Dolly in 2008- South Texas).
Category 2- 96-110 mph. Extensive damage will occur. Examples of this include: Older mobile homes can be completely destroyed by the high winds and flying debris. The risk of death or injury to humans and animals increases. High rise buildings sway, and face the risk of having windows blown out. Example of a category 2 storm (Hurricane Frances in 2004- East Central FL Coast).
Category 3 111-130 mph. Severe damage will occur. Major tree and power line damage occurs often producing prolonged power outages for over a week. Major communications can be cut off for more than a week. Almost all older mobile homes will be completely destroyed. Poorly constructed frame homes can face serious damage. Major roof damage will occur. Signs, fences, and canopies destroyed. Example of a category 3 (Hurricane Rita September 24, 2005- SW Louisiana/SE Texas). Hurricanes of category 3 intensity and above are considered major hurricanes.
Category 4 131-155 mph. Devastating damage. A very high risk of death to humans and animals due to falling and flying debris. Major structural damage to well built homes and offices. Certain demolition of mobile homes and trailers. Power failures will last for weeks due to numerous amount of falling trees and power lines. All major services will be unavailable for quite some time after the storm. Example of a category 4 storm (Hurricane Charley- August 2004- West Central Florida).
Category 5 156 mph or greater. Catastrophic damage. A very high risk to almost near certain death for humans and animals due to falling and flying debris. Major damage to well built structures. Nearly all signs, canopies, and fences will be destroyed. Nearly all trees and power lines will be snapped, uprooted, or downed. Expect utilities and services to be absent for weeks possibly months. Many areas will be uninhabitable, and human suffering will be immense. An example of a category 5 storm (Hurricane Andrew- August 1992, and Hurricane Camille- August 1969 Mississippi).
Other terms of note include:
Storm surge- A rapid rise in ocean height as a hurricane moves inland. More people are killed by the storm surge element than the wind element. The storm surge is extremely destructive to anything and everything in its path, especially if it comes in with a significant speed. You should remember that water is extremely heavy, and a cubic yard of water weighs about 1,700 pounds. The larger the storm, the higher the surge will be. The shape of the continental shelf across the coastal waters is also a contributing factor.
When a tropical system is threatening a portion of coastline, and conditions are imminent within a couple of days certain advisories are issued by the National Hurricane Center.
Tropical Storm Watch- Alert issued when tropical storm conditions are expected within 48 hours for a specific area of the coast.
Tropical Storm Warning- Alert issued when tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours for a specific area of the coast.
Hurricane Watch- Alert issued when hurricane conditions are expected for a specific portion of the coastline. It is issued within 48 hours of the anticipated onset of tropical storm force, because the stronger winds will make preparations more difficult to complete.
Hurricane Warning- Alert issued when hurricane conditions are expected for a specific portion of the coastline with 36 hours of the anticipated onset of tropical storm force winds. This is because preparations become more difficult to complete once the winds increase.
Tornadoes are also very common during tropical systems, mainly to the right (East) of the center of circulation.
Tornado- A small-scale, violently rotating column of air extending from the cyclonic motion.
These are the common terms used during the course of a tropical season.
__________________________________________________________________________________
The next section will actually cover something that took affect last year in 2010, but I want to familiarize you with it. The NHC (National Hurricane Center) made several changes to how they issue forecasts. Since, last year was a relatively quiet year as far as storm activity reaching the Gulf, you may not have even realized there were some changes, so I felt it was important to repeat this section from last year.
First, Watches and warnings for tropical storms and hurricanes along threatened coastal areas will be issued 12 hours earlier than in previous years. Tropical storm watches will be issued when tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within 48 hours. Tropical storm warnings will be issued when those conditions are expected within 36 hours. Similar increases in lead-time will apply to hurricane watches and warnings.
Secondly, The format of the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory is changing. The most significant changes are:
The Public Advisory will be organized into sections. Within these sections, keywords will be used to assist the human eye and computer software to find specific information more readily.
The summary section of the advisory will move to the top of the product, immediately following the headline. The summary section will contain more information than it did previously.
Watch and warning information will be organized differently and be presented in list or bullet form.
Thirdly, A summary section, identical to the one found in the Public Advisory, will be added to the Tropical Cyclone Update whenever storm information (e.g., position, intensity, movement, pressure, etc.) changes from the previous Advisory.
Fourth, The genesis forecasts for the risk of tropical cyclone development will be provided to nearest 10 percent, in both the text and graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks. In previous years, only risk categories (low/medium/high) were given.
Fifth, The National Weather Service and its National Hurricane Center will begin using the generic term "post-tropical" to refer to any system that no longer possesses sufficient tropical characteristics to be considered a tropical cyclone. Post-tropical cyclones can continue to carry heavy rains and strong winds. Some post-tropical cyclones will go on to become fully extratropical, that is, derive their energy from the temperature contrast between warm and cold air masses. Another type of post-tropical cyclone is the "remnant low", a weak system with limited thunderstorm activity and winds of less than tropical storm strength.
Next, The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale will become operational. The scale keeps the same wind speed ranges as the original Saffir-Simpson Scale for each of the five hurricane categories, but no longer ties specific storm surge and flooding effects to each category.
Lastly, The size of the tropical cyclone forecast cone will be adjusted. The cone represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone, and is formed by enclosing the area swept out by a set of imaginary circles placed along the forecast track (at 12, 24, 36 hours, etc.). The size of each circle is set so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over a 5-year sample fall within the circle. The circle radii defining the cones in 2010 for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins are given in the table below.
For more information log onto www.nhc.noaa.gov....The National Hurricane Center.
___________________________________________________________________________________
Finally, to close things out this morning. Here is the list of names for the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season. It should be noted, that names are only used once a tropical cyclone reaches tropical storm intensity and above. When a tropical cyclone is in tropical depression stage, it is only given a number. As usual, the list of names alternates boy/girl or girl/boy depending on what year it is. This year first up is Arlene, followed by Bret, and so forth. Remember, too, that the names are recycled every 6 years. For example, Arlene & the rest of the following names will show up again in 2017. There is an exception to that rule, and when you see this year's list you will see a perfect illustration of that. If a storm is influential, and not necessarily at or above major hurricane status, the name will be retired. Such retired names include Rita, Katrina, Ike, Gustav, Audrey, Andrew, Lili, Ivan, Frances, Charley, Wilma, Betsy, & Camille just to name a few. This year's list features many of the same names from 2005, but notice the replacements for Katrina, Rita, Dennis, Stan, & Wilma. The 2011 list of names is as follows:
Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney
There are no storm names for the letter Q, U, X, Y, & Z.
Check back for part 2 tonight which will feature what to do before, during, and after the storm, as well as hurricane climatology and history for SW Louisiana, and also include the science behind hurricanes, that is, the forecasting aspect. Iwill also include some predictions for the upcoming season. Even though I don't put numbers on it like some experts do, I will give my thoughts on the upcoming season. If you have any questions or comments please feel free to leave them right here, or you can e-mail me. Be sure to scroll down for the latest forecast as well.
Have a great Thursday & be sure to check back later tonight.
God bless!
-DM
It is that time of year again. This week May 22-28 has been officially recognized as Hurricane Preparedness Week.We are less than a week away from the start of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The season officially starts on Wednesday, June 1 and concludes on Wednesday November 30. The purpose of this blog post is to provide you with pertinent information you need to be prepared should a storm target SW Louisiana during the upcoming season. I will break it up into parts to make it easier for you to read. The first parts that I will post this morning will include common terms we associate with tropical cyclones, some do's and dont's from before, during, and after a storm. I will also go ahead and list the cycle of names for the 2011 season, and conclude with my personal thoughts on the upcoming season. Many people are on edge, and understandably so, with the storms of recent years still heavy on our minds, and all of the violent tornadoes that been occurring in recent days and weeks. I will try to calm your fears just a bit in that regard in a few moments. Without further delay, let's get started...be sure to scroll down for the whole post. Additional information will be posted tonight.
It is essential to have a better understanding of not only hurricanes, but all tropical systems in general. One way to become more knowledgeable of these meteorological entities is to understand and know the meaning of certain terms we use over the course of the season.
As you know, tropical systems are divided into 3 stages for naming purposes: tropical depression, tropical storm, and hurricane. However, it can be taken further as all of these tropical systems begin from what is known as a tropical wave or tropical disturbance. Let's define each one.
Tropical Disturbance- An area of disorganized low pressure that develops in the Atlantic Basin, that is, the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Atlantic Ocean. It generally evolves from a persistent area of thunderstorms, and lowering pressures over the Atlantic Basin.
Tropical Depression- An organized low pressure system with organized clouds and thunderstorms. It has sustained surface winds of 38 mph or less.
Tropical Storm- An organized low pressure system with organized clouds and intense rainfall. It has sustained surface winds of 39-73 mph.
Hurricane- The most intense of the tropical cyclones. It produced very heavy rainfall, and sustained surface winds must be at least 74 mph.
Hurricane intensity is measured using the Saffir-Simpson scale. It is broken down into 5 categories.
Category 1 74-95 mph. Minimal damage will result such as downed trees and power lines. Damage to poorly constructed mobile homes is possible. Minor roof damage possible to some well-built homes. Some signs could be damaged. Injury or death to people and animals can occur if debris falls on or hits them. Example of a category 1 storm (Dolly in 2008- South Texas).
Category 2- 96-110 mph. Extensive damage will occur. Examples of this include: Older mobile homes can be completely destroyed by the high winds and flying debris. The risk of death or injury to humans and animals increases. High rise buildings sway, and face the risk of having windows blown out. Example of a category 2 storm (Hurricane Frances in 2004- East Central FL Coast).
Category 3 111-130 mph. Severe damage will occur. Major tree and power line damage occurs often producing prolonged power outages for over a week. Major communications can be cut off for more than a week. Almost all older mobile homes will be completely destroyed. Poorly constructed frame homes can face serious damage. Major roof damage will occur. Signs, fences, and canopies destroyed. Example of a category 3 (Hurricane Rita September 24, 2005- SW Louisiana/SE Texas). Hurricanes of category 3 intensity and above are considered major hurricanes.
Category 4 131-155 mph. Devastating damage. A very high risk of death to humans and animals due to falling and flying debris. Major structural damage to well built homes and offices. Certain demolition of mobile homes and trailers. Power failures will last for weeks due to numerous amount of falling trees and power lines. All major services will be unavailable for quite some time after the storm. Example of a category 4 storm (Hurricane Charley- August 2004- West Central Florida).
Category 5 156 mph or greater. Catastrophic damage. A very high risk to almost near certain death for humans and animals due to falling and flying debris. Major damage to well built structures. Nearly all signs, canopies, and fences will be destroyed. Nearly all trees and power lines will be snapped, uprooted, or downed. Expect utilities and services to be absent for weeks possibly months. Many areas will be uninhabitable, and human suffering will be immense. An example of a category 5 storm (Hurricane Andrew- August 1992, and Hurricane Camille- August 1969 Mississippi).
Other terms of note include:
Storm surge- A rapid rise in ocean height as a hurricane moves inland. More people are killed by the storm surge element than the wind element. The storm surge is extremely destructive to anything and everything in its path, especially if it comes in with a significant speed. You should remember that water is extremely heavy, and a cubic yard of water weighs about 1,700 pounds. The larger the storm, the higher the surge will be. The shape of the continental shelf across the coastal waters is also a contributing factor.
When a tropical system is threatening a portion of coastline, and conditions are imminent within a couple of days certain advisories are issued by the National Hurricane Center.
Tropical Storm Watch- Alert issued when tropical storm conditions are expected within 48 hours for a specific area of the coast.
Tropical Storm Warning- Alert issued when tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours for a specific area of the coast.
Hurricane Watch- Alert issued when hurricane conditions are expected for a specific portion of the coastline. It is issued within 48 hours of the anticipated onset of tropical storm force, because the stronger winds will make preparations more difficult to complete.
Hurricane Warning- Alert issued when hurricane conditions are expected for a specific portion of the coastline with 36 hours of the anticipated onset of tropical storm force winds. This is because preparations become more difficult to complete once the winds increase.
Tornadoes are also very common during tropical systems, mainly to the right (East) of the center of circulation.
Tornado- A small-scale, violently rotating column of air extending from the cyclonic motion.
These are the common terms used during the course of a tropical season.
__________________________________________________________________________________
The next section will actually cover something that took affect last year in 2010, but I want to familiarize you with it. The NHC (National Hurricane Center) made several changes to how they issue forecasts. Since, last year was a relatively quiet year as far as storm activity reaching the Gulf, you may not have even realized there were some changes, so I felt it was important to repeat this section from last year.
First, Watches and warnings for tropical storms and hurricanes along threatened coastal areas will be issued 12 hours earlier than in previous years. Tropical storm watches will be issued when tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within 48 hours. Tropical storm warnings will be issued when those conditions are expected within 36 hours. Similar increases in lead-time will apply to hurricane watches and warnings.
Secondly, The format of the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory is changing. The most significant changes are:
The Public Advisory will be organized into sections. Within these sections, keywords will be used to assist the human eye and computer software to find specific information more readily.
The summary section of the advisory will move to the top of the product, immediately following the headline. The summary section will contain more information than it did previously.
Watch and warning information will be organized differently and be presented in list or bullet form.
Thirdly, A summary section, identical to the one found in the Public Advisory, will be added to the Tropical Cyclone Update whenever storm information (e.g., position, intensity, movement, pressure, etc.) changes from the previous Advisory.
Fourth, The genesis forecasts for the risk of tropical cyclone development will be provided to nearest 10 percent, in both the text and graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks. In previous years, only risk categories (low/medium/high) were given.
Fifth, The National Weather Service and its National Hurricane Center will begin using the generic term "post-tropical" to refer to any system that no longer possesses sufficient tropical characteristics to be considered a tropical cyclone. Post-tropical cyclones can continue to carry heavy rains and strong winds. Some post-tropical cyclones will go on to become fully extratropical, that is, derive their energy from the temperature contrast between warm and cold air masses. Another type of post-tropical cyclone is the "remnant low", a weak system with limited thunderstorm activity and winds of less than tropical storm strength.
Next, The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale will become operational. The scale keeps the same wind speed ranges as the original Saffir-Simpson Scale for each of the five hurricane categories, but no longer ties specific storm surge and flooding effects to each category.
Lastly, The size of the tropical cyclone forecast cone will be adjusted. The cone represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone, and is formed by enclosing the area swept out by a set of imaginary circles placed along the forecast track (at 12, 24, 36 hours, etc.). The size of each circle is set so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over a 5-year sample fall within the circle. The circle radii defining the cones in 2010 for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins are given in the table below.
For more information log onto www.nhc.noaa.gov....The National Hurricane Center.
___________________________________________________________________________________
Finally, to close things out this morning. Here is the list of names for the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season. It should be noted, that names are only used once a tropical cyclone reaches tropical storm intensity and above. When a tropical cyclone is in tropical depression stage, it is only given a number. As usual, the list of names alternates boy/girl or girl/boy depending on what year it is. This year first up is Arlene, followed by Bret, and so forth. Remember, too, that the names are recycled every 6 years. For example, Arlene & the rest of the following names will show up again in 2017. There is an exception to that rule, and when you see this year's list you will see a perfect illustration of that. If a storm is influential, and not necessarily at or above major hurricane status, the name will be retired. Such retired names include Rita, Katrina, Ike, Gustav, Audrey, Andrew, Lili, Ivan, Frances, Charley, Wilma, Betsy, & Camille just to name a few. This year's list features many of the same names from 2005, but notice the replacements for Katrina, Rita, Dennis, Stan, & Wilma. The 2011 list of names is as follows:
Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney
There are no storm names for the letter Q, U, X, Y, & Z.
Check back for part 2 tonight which will feature what to do before, during, and after the storm, as well as hurricane climatology and history for SW Louisiana, and also include the science behind hurricanes, that is, the forecasting aspect. Iwill also include some predictions for the upcoming season. Even though I don't put numbers on it like some experts do, I will give my thoughts on the upcoming season. If you have any questions or comments please feel free to leave them right here, or you can e-mail me. Be sure to scroll down for the latest forecast as well.
Have a great Thursday & be sure to check back later tonight.
God bless!
-DM
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Early Summer Pattern Firmly Entrenched...
Wednesday, May 25,
2011
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion…It was another day with the same results from a weather standpoint. The relative tranquility continues across SW Louisiana with very warm, humid, & windy conditions persisting. This is rather benign weather compared to what our neighbors to the North have been enduring in the previous days. Our thoughts & prayers are with all of them. The windy conditions are about the only local effects from these advancing vigorous disturbances that have been producing the killer tornado outbreaks. Our drought will only worsen in the coming days as we head towards meteorological summer next week. The above normal temperature scheme will remain a constant as well. Morning lows have been running in the mid 70s on average, while afternoon highs have flirted with 90 for several days now, and that was certainly no exception on this Wednesday. Mid and upper level high pressure is the current driving force behind our prolonged precip-free pattern. A large surface high is locked in place to our East over the Southeast Atlantic Ocean. This is for all intents & purposes a summer pattern minus the afternoon convective activity we rely on for the lion share’s of our rainfall this time of year.
The same weather conditions will prevail until further notice. The winds will die off overnight as the loss of daytime heating generates a decreased amount of atmospheric mixing. Mild & humid weather will be present as we head into the latter half of the work week with mid to upper 70s for Thursday morning lows. Of course, it will be warmer at the coast with the usual marine influences in place. Skies will waver between Partly and Mostly Cloudy. It looks to be another long and potential violent night for our neighbors to the North with another tornado outbreak expected. Our only glimmer of hope for rain chances over the next week looks to come in the short-term. The series of disturbances will push a weakening cold front to the SE across the country as they emanate Eastward. The cold front will be driven by a large upper level low pinwheeling across the Mid West. This front will have enough of a push to move across the forecast area Thursday afternoon. This could act to increase lift just enough due to a slight erosion of the mid and upper level cap to spark off some widely scattered showers & storms. The severe threat will remain North of our forecast area. Tornado Watches currently extend from the Northern half of Louisiana all the way through much of the Mid West to the Great Lakes Region. Any rain we receive will by no means be anything of significance, and certainly not even begin to put a dent in the worsening drought. A slightest of slight 20% chance is mentioned for tonight through Thursday just in case, but if you do get some rain consider yourself mighty lucky. Otherwise, it’ll be the same ole same ole with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s again with a general mix of sun and clouds expected for Thursday. It shouldn’t be quite as windy as the main impetus of the storm system slides further away allowing for a decreasing pressure differential. This weak late season cold front won't do much for our overall weather pattern either. It may allow for some slightly cooler & drier air to move in briefly for Friday morning, before the deeper Gulf moisture returns just in time for the holiday weekend.
Ho hum weather prevails for Friday through the balance of the Memorial Day weekend. May looks to end on a very dry & hot note early next week. The upper level ridge will re-build and strengthen beginning Friday through the weekend; once again assuring that rain chances will be next to nothing. Temperatures will be reflected as well with morning lows remaining in the 74-78 range while afternoon highs reach and exceed the 90 degree threshold for the first time this season on a consistent basis. Heat indices will approach the 100 degree mark as well given the high humidity values. The weather will certainly cooperate for any outdoor plans you may have, but remember to properly protect yourself from long exposure to sunlight. The persistent onshore flow won’t be going anywhere, but at least it shouldn’t be crazy windy like it has been in recent days. That strong South wind has been our saving grace thus far, otherwise it would already feel unbearable. The main storm track will remain locked in place well to our North as the upper level ridging (588 mb. circle) builds across the Gulf rim. We will enter into meteorological summer, and the first day of the 2011 Hurricane Season on Wednesday at the end of the forecast period. The weather will match the time of year perfectly as the quietude continues. Get used to it SW Louisiana, we have moved into our long, miserable summer season. Hopefully, we can shake the drought at some point in the near future. The main weather issue across Louisiana will continue to be the ongoing hydrologic disaster with river flooding in the Atchafalaya and Mississippi River basins. Even though, the flooding may not have been as bad as originally expected, the flood waters will remain high at least through June in the lower Mississippi and Atchafalaya Basins, and the persistent Southerly flow won’t help the water drain out into the Gulf any faster.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 75/89 72/91 75/91 20 20 10 0 0 0
CAM 79/84 78/85 79/85 20 20 10 0 0 0
LFT 75/90 72/92 76/91 20 20 10 0 0 0
ARA 76/88 76/90 76/89 20 20 10 0 0 0
BPT 76/91 76/91 77/92 20 20 10 0 0 0
JAS 72/92 68/92 71/92 30 20 10 0 0 0
AEX 71/92 65/93 70/94 30 20 10 0 0 0
POE 72/91 66/92 71/93 30 20 10 0 0 0
Tonight…Partly Cloudy w/ a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low 75. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday…Partly to Mostly Cloudy w/ a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. High 89. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Thursday Night…Partly Cloudy. Low 72. SSW wind 10 mph.
Friday…Partly Cloudy. High 91. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Friday Night…Partly Cloudy. Low 75. SSE wind 5-10 mph.
Saturday…Partly Cloudy. High 91. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Saturday Night…Partly Cloudy. Low 76. SSE wind 5-10 mph.
Sunday…Partly Cloudy. High 90. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Sunday Night…Partly Cloudy. Low 77. SSE wind 5-10 mph.
Memorial Day…Partly Cloudy & Hot. High 92. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday 5/26/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 75
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 12
9a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 80
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 13
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 84
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 16
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 89
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 18
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 14
9p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 10
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Thursday
5-26-11
Low: 75
High: 89
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 93-98
Friday
5-27-11
Low: 72
High: 91
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 93-98
Saturday
5-28-11
Low: 75
High: 91
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 93-98
Sunday
5-29-11
Low: 76
High: 90
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
Monday
5-30-11
Memorial Day
Low: 77
High: 92
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
Tuesday
5-31-11
Low: 75
High: 92
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
Wednesday
6-1-11
2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins
Low: 76
High: 93
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 97-102
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday Night...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Saturday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 4 feet after midnight.
Sunday...Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Sunday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Monday...Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
...Tide Data...
Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 5:22a.m. 6:14p.m.
High: 11:04a.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
163.55'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Low: 78
Normal Low: 68
Record Low: 51-1913
High: 87
Normal High: 86
Record High: 94-1941
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.43"
Normal Month to Date: 4.80"
Year to Date: 14.51"
Normal Year to Date: 20.78"
Record: 2.71"- 1986
Significant Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 69
High: 93
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 71
High: 87
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 66
High: 87
Rain: Trace
Sunrise Thursday: 6:14a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 8:06p.m.
Hunting Times:
5:44a.m.-8:36p.m.
...Lunar Table...
New Moon- Wednesday June 1
First Quarter- Thursday June 9
Full Moon- Wednesday June 15
Last Quarter- Thursday June 23
Have a great Thursday & God Bless!
-DM-
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion…It was another day with the same results from a weather standpoint. The relative tranquility continues across SW Louisiana with very warm, humid, & windy conditions persisting. This is rather benign weather compared to what our neighbors to the North have been enduring in the previous days. Our thoughts & prayers are with all of them. The windy conditions are about the only local effects from these advancing vigorous disturbances that have been producing the killer tornado outbreaks. Our drought will only worsen in the coming days as we head towards meteorological summer next week. The above normal temperature scheme will remain a constant as well. Morning lows have been running in the mid 70s on average, while afternoon highs have flirted with 90 for several days now, and that was certainly no exception on this Wednesday. Mid and upper level high pressure is the current driving force behind our prolonged precip-free pattern. A large surface high is locked in place to our East over the Southeast Atlantic Ocean. This is for all intents & purposes a summer pattern minus the afternoon convective activity we rely on for the lion share’s of our rainfall this time of year.
The same weather conditions will prevail until further notice. The winds will die off overnight as the loss of daytime heating generates a decreased amount of atmospheric mixing. Mild & humid weather will be present as we head into the latter half of the work week with mid to upper 70s for Thursday morning lows. Of course, it will be warmer at the coast with the usual marine influences in place. Skies will waver between Partly and Mostly Cloudy. It looks to be another long and potential violent night for our neighbors to the North with another tornado outbreak expected. Our only glimmer of hope for rain chances over the next week looks to come in the short-term. The series of disturbances will push a weakening cold front to the SE across the country as they emanate Eastward. The cold front will be driven by a large upper level low pinwheeling across the Mid West. This front will have enough of a push to move across the forecast area Thursday afternoon. This could act to increase lift just enough due to a slight erosion of the mid and upper level cap to spark off some widely scattered showers & storms. The severe threat will remain North of our forecast area. Tornado Watches currently extend from the Northern half of Louisiana all the way through much of the Mid West to the Great Lakes Region. Any rain we receive will by no means be anything of significance, and certainly not even begin to put a dent in the worsening drought. A slightest of slight 20% chance is mentioned for tonight through Thursday just in case, but if you do get some rain consider yourself mighty lucky. Otherwise, it’ll be the same ole same ole with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s again with a general mix of sun and clouds expected for Thursday. It shouldn’t be quite as windy as the main impetus of the storm system slides further away allowing for a decreasing pressure differential. This weak late season cold front won't do much for our overall weather pattern either. It may allow for some slightly cooler & drier air to move in briefly for Friday morning, before the deeper Gulf moisture returns just in time for the holiday weekend.
Ho hum weather prevails for Friday through the balance of the Memorial Day weekend. May looks to end on a very dry & hot note early next week. The upper level ridge will re-build and strengthen beginning Friday through the weekend; once again assuring that rain chances will be next to nothing. Temperatures will be reflected as well with morning lows remaining in the 74-78 range while afternoon highs reach and exceed the 90 degree threshold for the first time this season on a consistent basis. Heat indices will approach the 100 degree mark as well given the high humidity values. The weather will certainly cooperate for any outdoor plans you may have, but remember to properly protect yourself from long exposure to sunlight. The persistent onshore flow won’t be going anywhere, but at least it shouldn’t be crazy windy like it has been in recent days. That strong South wind has been our saving grace thus far, otherwise it would already feel unbearable. The main storm track will remain locked in place well to our North as the upper level ridging (588 mb. circle) builds across the Gulf rim. We will enter into meteorological summer, and the first day of the 2011 Hurricane Season on Wednesday at the end of the forecast period. The weather will match the time of year perfectly as the quietude continues. Get used to it SW Louisiana, we have moved into our long, miserable summer season. Hopefully, we can shake the drought at some point in the near future. The main weather issue across Louisiana will continue to be the ongoing hydrologic disaster with river flooding in the Atchafalaya and Mississippi River basins. Even though, the flooding may not have been as bad as originally expected, the flood waters will remain high at least through June in the lower Mississippi and Atchafalaya Basins, and the persistent Southerly flow won’t help the water drain out into the Gulf any faster.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 75/89 72/91 75/91 20 20 10 0 0 0
CAM 79/84 78/85 79/85 20 20 10 0 0 0
LFT 75/90 72/92 76/91 20 20 10 0 0 0
ARA 76/88 76/90 76/89 20 20 10 0 0 0
BPT 76/91 76/91 77/92 20 20 10 0 0 0
JAS 72/92 68/92 71/92 30 20 10 0 0 0
AEX 71/92 65/93 70/94 30 20 10 0 0 0
POE 72/91 66/92 71/93 30 20 10 0 0 0
Tonight…Partly Cloudy w/ a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low 75. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday…Partly to Mostly Cloudy w/ a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. High 89. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Thursday Night…Partly Cloudy. Low 72. SSW wind 10 mph.
Friday…Partly Cloudy. High 91. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Friday Night…Partly Cloudy. Low 75. SSE wind 5-10 mph.
Saturday…Partly Cloudy. High 91. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Saturday Night…Partly Cloudy. Low 76. SSE wind 5-10 mph.
Sunday…Partly Cloudy. High 90. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Sunday Night…Partly Cloudy. Low 77. SSE wind 5-10 mph.
Memorial Day…Partly Cloudy & Hot. High 92. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday 5/26/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 75
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 12
9a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 80
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 13
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 84
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 16
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 89
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 18
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 14
9p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 10
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Thursday
5-26-11
Low: 75
High: 89
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 93-98
Friday
5-27-11
Low: 72
High: 91
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 93-98
Saturday
5-28-11
Low: 75
High: 91
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 93-98
Sunday
5-29-11
Low: 76
High: 90
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
Monday
5-30-11
Memorial Day
Low: 77
High: 92
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
Tuesday
5-31-11
Low: 75
High: 92
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
Wednesday
6-1-11
2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins
Low: 76
High: 93
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 97-102
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday Night...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Saturday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 4 feet after midnight.
Sunday...Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Sunday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Monday...Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
...Tide Data...
Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 5:22a.m. 6:14p.m.
High: 11:04a.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
163.55'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Low: 78
Normal Low: 68
Record Low: 51-1913
High: 87
Normal High: 86
Record High: 94-1941
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.43"
Normal Month to Date: 4.80"
Year to Date: 14.51"
Normal Year to Date: 20.78"
Record: 2.71"- 1986
Significant Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 69
High: 93
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 71
High: 87
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 66
High: 87
Rain: Trace
Sunrise Thursday: 6:14a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 8:06p.m.
Hunting Times:
5:44a.m.-8:36p.m.
...Lunar Table...
New Moon- Wednesday June 1
First Quarter- Thursday June 9
Full Moon- Wednesday June 15
Last Quarter- Thursday June 23
Have a great Thursday & God Bless!
-DM-
Friday, May 20, 2011
Looks & Feels Like Summer...
Thursday, May 19, 2011
Video blogs return next week.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...I already miss the nearly perfect weather we experienced earlier in the week, and we have a long summer ahead of us. We will certainly be experiencing a free preview of summer for the foreseeable future. The persistent drought conditions will only worsen as well, with no sign of any significant rain chances through the period. However, our only glimmer of hope for any rainfall is on the horizon in the short-term. Explicit details concerning this are coming up momentarily. First, here's where we stand as of press time. Thursday was a day that featured a good deal of cloud cover as the return flow intensified across the area. This return flow ushered in significant amounts of low level moisture which in turn created much higher humidity values. Temperatures warmed into the upper 80s for most locations with the usual exceptions. The winds were the big story with SSE winds over 20 mph at times continuing to elevate the fire danger across a very drought stricken SW Louisiana and SE Texas. The mugginess of mid May will be here for the foreseeable future, and the temperature modification will continues as well. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s across the forecast area with Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies on tap. The onshore flow will continue in a much weaker state that it was this afternoon.
As I hinted at briefly a few moments ago, the only real opportunity for some much needed rainfall will come in the short term...mainly Friday afternoon and evening. The overall atmospheric conditions will only change slightly, but we will have the potential for some convective activity on Friday afternoon. It will be a warm, windy, & humid day regardless of if it rains or not. However, there is a large storm system moving across the country at present which is sparking off a severe weather episode once again tonight for portions of the Great Plains. As the system moves further East Friday, some additional Jet Stream energy will feed into the system. A few disturbances embedded in a SW flow aloft over our area will emanate NE on Friday. The first one should move by a bit too far to the North to do anything for us.
The mid and upper level ridging will hold firm until later in the day, before it weakens slightly as the second perturbation ejects. This one is forecast to take a track a bit further South, bringing it closer to the forecast area. Therefore, it may have enough energy available to help interrupt the present cap. This combined with daytime heating, may very well result in some scattered showers & thunderstorms from late afternoon into the overnight hours. Certainly, not everyone will see rain, and amounts will vary greatly from one location to the next. This will by no means alleviate the drought conditions in place, but it does offer us at least a chance. High temperatures will approach the 90 degree threshold, and rain chances will be mentioned across the entire forecast area. The best chances will be across the Northern portions of the area because they will be in closer proximity to the evacuating short wave. A line of showers/storms will likely emerge over Texas ahead of the dry line during the day Friday, and push Eastward towards the forecast area, and be weakening in the process as they move closer to a more stable environment. The severe weather threat is very minimal, but given the time of the year a robust storm or two can't be ruled out. The main threat would be damaging winds and some hail. The tornado threat is non-existent given the lack of wind shear. I will not mention the possibility of severe weather at this point, and the small rain chances should suffice for now.
The weekend looks quiet. The SW-NE moving short wave will push on by overnight into Saturday morning. This will bring rain chances to an end, and we will be left with pretty much a standard early summer scenario. Partly Cloudy skies are expected throughout the weekend. It should remain breezy as well with onshore breezes over 20 mph at times in response to the advancing storm systems and the inflow these systems create. Morning low temperatures will average the lower 70s while afternoon highs tease the 90 degree mark. There may be times when it will look like it wants to rain, but the mid and upper level ridging will re-establish itself in the wake of Friday's short wave assuring that there will be virtually no vertical growth of the clouds necessary to generate thunderstorms. It will be a good weekend for any outdoor plans you may have, but if your plans take you out for a prolonged period of time or near the water be sure to properly protect yourself from the strong May sun. Sunday will be a virtual carbon copy of Saturday. Winds might be a little lighter Sunday as this latest storm system pulls away.
Next week should feature more of the same with virtually no change in the weather through Wednesday. Mid and upper level ridging processes will hold firm, and create rising heights above the surface. This should result in temperatures exceeding 90 for highs each day, and morning lows will remain in the low to mid 70s area wide. The only thing keeping this from being a true South Louisiana summer pattern will be lack of scattered afternoon convection. Surface high pressure anchored to our East will steer all major storm systems well to the North of the area. This pattern is known as the Bermuda High pattern, and is our prevailing pattern during the summer months. The only concerns will continue to be the worsening drought situation and the ongoing river flooding in the Atchafalaya and Mississippi River basins. The worst of the flooding is expected to arrive sometime next week along the Atchafalaya Basin. Stay tuned for more on that. Rain chances may return at the end of the forecast period on Thursday when another strong late Spring storm will be traversing the contiguous 48 states. Models differ on the eventual track of this system, but there are hints it may track further South increasing its impacts on our area. This could bring a cold front through the area, but the jury is still out on that idea. There is enough agreement at this time to insert rain chances into the forecast for Thursday, but nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year. The summerlike temperatures will continue until further notice.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 73/87 74/89 75/90 0 30 30 10 0 0
CAM 77/83 77/84 78/84 0 30 30 10 0 0
LFT 72/88 74/90 75/91 0 30 30 10 0 0
ARA 74/86 75/87 75/87 0 30 30 10 0 0
BPT 75/89 75/90 76/90 0 30 30 10 0 0
JAS 70/90 71/90 71/92 0 40 30 20 0 0
AEX 70/91 71/91 72/92 0 40 30 20 0 0
POE 71/90 71/91 73/92 0 40 30 20 0 0
Tonight...Partly to Mostly Cloudy. Low 73. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Friday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. High 87. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Friday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low 74. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Saturday...Partly Cloudy. High 89. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Saturday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 75. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Sunday...Partly Cloudy. High 90. SSE wind 10-20 mph & gusty.
Sunday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 75. South wind 10-15 mph.
Monday...Partly Cloudy. High 91. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Monday Night...Partly Cloudy. High 74. SSE wind 10 mph.
Tuesday...Partly Cloudy. High 91. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Friday 5/20/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 11
9a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 79
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 14
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 83
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 18
3p.m.
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Some Scattered Storms
Temp: 87
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 20
6p.m.
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Some Scattered Activity
Temp: 83
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 17
9p.m.
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Still Some Scattered Storms Around
Temp: 81
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 15
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
5-20-11
Low: 73
High: 87
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 90-95
Saturday
5-21-11
Low: 74
High: 89
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 93-98
Sunday
5-22-11
Low: 75
High: 90
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-20
H.I.: 92-97
Monday
5-23-11
Low: 75
High: 91
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
Tuesday
5-24-11
Low: 74
High: 91
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 95-100
Wednesday
5-25-11
Low: 75
High: 92
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 95-100
Thursday
5-26-11
Low: 75
High: 90
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 95-100
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Friday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
Saturday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
Saturday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday Night...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Monday...South winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Monday Night...South winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday...South winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Have a great Friday & weekend! God bless!
-DM-
Video blogs return next week.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...I already miss the nearly perfect weather we experienced earlier in the week, and we have a long summer ahead of us. We will certainly be experiencing a free preview of summer for the foreseeable future. The persistent drought conditions will only worsen as well, with no sign of any significant rain chances through the period. However, our only glimmer of hope for any rainfall is on the horizon in the short-term. Explicit details concerning this are coming up momentarily. First, here's where we stand as of press time. Thursday was a day that featured a good deal of cloud cover as the return flow intensified across the area. This return flow ushered in significant amounts of low level moisture which in turn created much higher humidity values. Temperatures warmed into the upper 80s for most locations with the usual exceptions. The winds were the big story with SSE winds over 20 mph at times continuing to elevate the fire danger across a very drought stricken SW Louisiana and SE Texas. The mugginess of mid May will be here for the foreseeable future, and the temperature modification will continues as well. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s across the forecast area with Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies on tap. The onshore flow will continue in a much weaker state that it was this afternoon.
As I hinted at briefly a few moments ago, the only real opportunity for some much needed rainfall will come in the short term...mainly Friday afternoon and evening. The overall atmospheric conditions will only change slightly, but we will have the potential for some convective activity on Friday afternoon. It will be a warm, windy, & humid day regardless of if it rains or not. However, there is a large storm system moving across the country at present which is sparking off a severe weather episode once again tonight for portions of the Great Plains. As the system moves further East Friday, some additional Jet Stream energy will feed into the system. A few disturbances embedded in a SW flow aloft over our area will emanate NE on Friday. The first one should move by a bit too far to the North to do anything for us.
The mid and upper level ridging will hold firm until later in the day, before it weakens slightly as the second perturbation ejects. This one is forecast to take a track a bit further South, bringing it closer to the forecast area. Therefore, it may have enough energy available to help interrupt the present cap. This combined with daytime heating, may very well result in some scattered showers & thunderstorms from late afternoon into the overnight hours. Certainly, not everyone will see rain, and amounts will vary greatly from one location to the next. This will by no means alleviate the drought conditions in place, but it does offer us at least a chance. High temperatures will approach the 90 degree threshold, and rain chances will be mentioned across the entire forecast area. The best chances will be across the Northern portions of the area because they will be in closer proximity to the evacuating short wave. A line of showers/storms will likely emerge over Texas ahead of the dry line during the day Friday, and push Eastward towards the forecast area, and be weakening in the process as they move closer to a more stable environment. The severe weather threat is very minimal, but given the time of the year a robust storm or two can't be ruled out. The main threat would be damaging winds and some hail. The tornado threat is non-existent given the lack of wind shear. I will not mention the possibility of severe weather at this point, and the small rain chances should suffice for now.
The weekend looks quiet. The SW-NE moving short wave will push on by overnight into Saturday morning. This will bring rain chances to an end, and we will be left with pretty much a standard early summer scenario. Partly Cloudy skies are expected throughout the weekend. It should remain breezy as well with onshore breezes over 20 mph at times in response to the advancing storm systems and the inflow these systems create. Morning low temperatures will average the lower 70s while afternoon highs tease the 90 degree mark. There may be times when it will look like it wants to rain, but the mid and upper level ridging will re-establish itself in the wake of Friday's short wave assuring that there will be virtually no vertical growth of the clouds necessary to generate thunderstorms. It will be a good weekend for any outdoor plans you may have, but if your plans take you out for a prolonged period of time or near the water be sure to properly protect yourself from the strong May sun. Sunday will be a virtual carbon copy of Saturday. Winds might be a little lighter Sunday as this latest storm system pulls away.
Next week should feature more of the same with virtually no change in the weather through Wednesday. Mid and upper level ridging processes will hold firm, and create rising heights above the surface. This should result in temperatures exceeding 90 for highs each day, and morning lows will remain in the low to mid 70s area wide. The only thing keeping this from being a true South Louisiana summer pattern will be lack of scattered afternoon convection. Surface high pressure anchored to our East will steer all major storm systems well to the North of the area. This pattern is known as the Bermuda High pattern, and is our prevailing pattern during the summer months. The only concerns will continue to be the worsening drought situation and the ongoing river flooding in the Atchafalaya and Mississippi River basins. The worst of the flooding is expected to arrive sometime next week along the Atchafalaya Basin. Stay tuned for more on that. Rain chances may return at the end of the forecast period on Thursday when another strong late Spring storm will be traversing the contiguous 48 states. Models differ on the eventual track of this system, but there are hints it may track further South increasing its impacts on our area. This could bring a cold front through the area, but the jury is still out on that idea. There is enough agreement at this time to insert rain chances into the forecast for Thursday, but nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year. The summerlike temperatures will continue until further notice.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 73/87 74/89 75/90 0 30 30 10 0 0
CAM 77/83 77/84 78/84 0 30 30 10 0 0
LFT 72/88 74/90 75/91 0 30 30 10 0 0
ARA 74/86 75/87 75/87 0 30 30 10 0 0
BPT 75/89 75/90 76/90 0 30 30 10 0 0
JAS 70/90 71/90 71/92 0 40 30 20 0 0
AEX 70/91 71/91 72/92 0 40 30 20 0 0
POE 71/90 71/91 73/92 0 40 30 20 0 0
Tonight...Partly to Mostly Cloudy. Low 73. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Friday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. High 87. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Friday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low 74. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Saturday...Partly Cloudy. High 89. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Saturday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 75. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Sunday...Partly Cloudy. High 90. SSE wind 10-20 mph & gusty.
Sunday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 75. South wind 10-15 mph.
Monday...Partly Cloudy. High 91. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Monday Night...Partly Cloudy. High 74. SSE wind 10 mph.
Tuesday...Partly Cloudy. High 91. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Friday 5/20/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 11
9a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 79
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 14
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 83
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 18
3p.m.
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Some Scattered Storms
Temp: 87
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 20
6p.m.
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Some Scattered Activity
Temp: 83
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 17
9p.m.
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Still Some Scattered Storms Around
Temp: 81
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 15
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
5-20-11
Low: 73
High: 87
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 90-95
Saturday
5-21-11
Low: 74
High: 89
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 93-98
Sunday
5-22-11
Low: 75
High: 90
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-20
H.I.: 92-97
Monday
5-23-11
Low: 75
High: 91
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
Tuesday
5-24-11
Low: 74
High: 91
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 95-100
Wednesday
5-25-11
Low: 75
High: 92
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 95-100
Thursday
5-26-11
Low: 75
High: 90
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 95-100
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Friday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
Saturday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
Saturday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday Night...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Monday...South winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Monday Night...South winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday...South winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Have a great Friday & weekend! God bless!
-DM-
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
Summer Pattern on the Horizon, but What About Rain?
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The awesome & unbelievably nice late Spring weather is still present on this Tuesday evening, but like all good things, it too, will come to an end in the short term. It continues for right now, as we are in a proverbial sandwich across the middle portion of the contiguous 48 states. A vigorous storm system is affecting the East Coast, while the next downstream system is over the Western Continental U.S. at present. Surface high pressure is firmly in control here at press time, but as we work our way through the next 24 hours the core of the surface feature will push Eastward into Dixie. This re-enforced area of high pressure provided us with another virtually cloud free day with pleasant temperatures and low humidity across the area. Morning lows were on the cool side with upper 40s to lower 50s, resulting in record lows across portions of the area. Afternoon highs were comfortable with readings in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The offshore flow that has been present since the weekend continues as the high pressure is virtually overhead right now. Another cool night is in store tonight with dry air still in place, however, air mass modification will begin. Therefore, overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer than that of last night, but still 50s are a good bet area wide. The surface high will slowly trudge Eastward beginning tonight, resulting in the commencement of a very subtle return flow by first thing Wednesday morning. Clear skies will remain in place. Our main concerns in the short term will be the ongoing hydrologic event with flooding along the Mississippi and Atchafalaya River basins, and the continuing drought with an elevated fire danger across the balance of the forecast area.
One more splendid day is in store for Wednesday with plenty of sunshine expected. Humidity will be on the increase in response to the return of the onshore flow. Mostly sunny skies are expected, and afternoon one more cooler than normal morning we will see high temperatures back up to near normal levels reaching the mid 80s for much of the area. Of course, closer to the coast it will be several degrees cooler due to the marine influence, and the warmest locations will be closer to 85 or so. Mid and upper level ridging will continue to persist despite the evacuating surface high. In turn, the benign weather pattern will continue with no large scale weather systems in the offing. Looking into the second half of the week, a day featuring seasonable temperatures with much more humidity and some cloud cover expected. Morning lows will be in the middle range of the 60s with higher dew points associated with the returning Gulf moisture, while Thursday's highs reach or exceed 85 across the area. The heat index will come into play as well thanks to the increased humidity. These values will be around 90 during peak heating hours Thursday. Surface winds will increase as the downstream Pacific storm system advances across the country.
As I stated in the previous forecast discussion, it appears as though for all intents and purposes this is the last gasp of Spring, and our last encounter with pleasant weather until the fall. Oh, there could certainly still be a front or two here in the latter stages of May, but the climatologically favored time for fronts reaching the Gulf Coast is about over with. There are no fronts on the horizon, though one might get close in the Friday/Saturday time frame to perhaps conjure up some beneficial rains for at least part of the forecast area. A strong short wave and trailing cold front will push Eastward on Friday, and slide into the ARKLATEX region. Mid and upper level ridging dominating the Gulf Coast weather will continue to hold firm likely quelling any rain chances in our neck of the woods. An isolated storm or two will be possible over the Northern extremities of the forecast area Friday due to a weaker cap in closer proximity to the synoptic feature. Most of us will see the continuation of dry weather along with plenty of humidity & seasonal May temperatures. Morning lows will be back to around 70 for Friday morning while afternoon highs creep toward the 90 degree threshold. It will certainly be time to get out the bathing suits and slap on the sunscreen. Perhaps, the only effects from the passing short wave locally will be the gusty South winds. The onshore flow will strengthen to over 20 mph at times as the disturbance creates pressure anomalies across the Northern Gulf Coast. There is a possibility that rain chances will be inserted for the rest of the forecast period if it looks like the aforementioned disturbance will drop a bit further South. This remains to be seen, and another analysis tomorrow will garner more details.
The remainder of the forecast period will remain on the quiet side. The ongoing drought will continue with no large scale weather systems expected to impact the area. Skies will generally be Partly Cloudy each day, and it will be very warm to hot with lots of humidity. It might be time to venture out to the ole swimming pool. Use caution if you will be out in the sun for a prolonged period of time over the weekend. Morning low temperatures will trend above normal running mainly in the lower 70s through Tuesday while afternoon highs climb above the 90 degree mark until the end of the forecast period as well. Mid and upper level ridging will continue to do the dominate weather feature. All storm systems of consequence will remain well to the North of SW Louisiana keeping us high and dry, and in drought conditions. The ongoing flooding situation for our neighbors to the East will continue to be the main story. No significant pattern change is expected anytime soon. It seems clear to me that we will transition into summer over the next few days. There may be a better chance for at least some standard afternoon shower & thunderstorm activity be the latter portions of next week, but this all depends on the ridging in the mid and upper levels. Day to day variations in atmospheric conditions often control the quota of scattered shower & thunderstorm activity across the Gulf Coast region throughout the summer months.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 55/83 65/86 71/88 0 0 0 0 0 10
CAM 60/79 68/81 73/85 0 0 0 0 0 10
LFT 54/84 64/85 70/88 0 0 0 0 0 10
ARA 57/82 65/84 72/87 0 0 0 0 0 10
BPT 58/84 68/85 72/89 0 0 0 0 0 10
AEX 50/84 60/87 65/90 0 0 0 0 0 20
POE 50/84 60/87 66/90 0 0 0 0 0 20
Tonight...Clear. Low 55. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday...Mostly Sunny. High 83. South wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Wednesday Night...Clear. Low 65. South wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday...Partly Cloudy. High 86. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 71. SSE wind 10 mph.
Friday...Partly Cloudy. High 88. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Friday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 72. South wind 10-15 mph.
Saturday...Partly Cloudy. High 90. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Saturday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 73. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Sunday...Partly Cloudy. High 91. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Wednesday 5/18/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 55
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 3
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 8
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 79
Rain: 0%
Wind: South 17
3p.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 86
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 20
6p.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 16
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 76
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 12
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
5-18-11
Low: 55
High: 83
Rain: 0%
Wind: South 15-20
Thursday
5-19-11
Low: 65
High: 86
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Friday
5-20-11
Low: 71
High: 88
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Saturday
5-21-11
Low: 72
High: 90
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Sunday
5-22-11
Low: 73
High: 91
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Monday
5-23-11
Low: 73
High: 91
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Tuesday
5-24-11
Low: 74
High: 92
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 foot building to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.
Wednesday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Friday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Friday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Sunday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 10:56a.m. 10:27p.m.
High: 5:59a.m. 2:23p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
163.80'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
Low: 52
Normal Low: 66
Record Low: 46-1912
High: 79
Normal High: 84
Record High: 94-1933
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.43"
Normal Month to Date: 3.13"
Year to Date: 14.51"
Normal Year to Date: 19.11"
Record: 1.62"- 2004
Significant Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 69
High: 91
Rain: 1.16"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 57
High: 84
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 67
High: 84
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:18a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 8:01p.m.
Hunting Times:
5:48a.m.-8:31p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Full Moon- Tonight May 17
Last Quarter- Tuesday May 24
New Moon- Wednesday June 1
First Quarter- Thursday June 9
Have a great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The awesome & unbelievably nice late Spring weather is still present on this Tuesday evening, but like all good things, it too, will come to an end in the short term. It continues for right now, as we are in a proverbial sandwich across the middle portion of the contiguous 48 states. A vigorous storm system is affecting the East Coast, while the next downstream system is over the Western Continental U.S. at present. Surface high pressure is firmly in control here at press time, but as we work our way through the next 24 hours the core of the surface feature will push Eastward into Dixie. This re-enforced area of high pressure provided us with another virtually cloud free day with pleasant temperatures and low humidity across the area. Morning lows were on the cool side with upper 40s to lower 50s, resulting in record lows across portions of the area. Afternoon highs were comfortable with readings in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The offshore flow that has been present since the weekend continues as the high pressure is virtually overhead right now. Another cool night is in store tonight with dry air still in place, however, air mass modification will begin. Therefore, overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer than that of last night, but still 50s are a good bet area wide. The surface high will slowly trudge Eastward beginning tonight, resulting in the commencement of a very subtle return flow by first thing Wednesday morning. Clear skies will remain in place. Our main concerns in the short term will be the ongoing hydrologic event with flooding along the Mississippi and Atchafalaya River basins, and the continuing drought with an elevated fire danger across the balance of the forecast area.
One more splendid day is in store for Wednesday with plenty of sunshine expected. Humidity will be on the increase in response to the return of the onshore flow. Mostly sunny skies are expected, and afternoon one more cooler than normal morning we will see high temperatures back up to near normal levels reaching the mid 80s for much of the area. Of course, closer to the coast it will be several degrees cooler due to the marine influence, and the warmest locations will be closer to 85 or so. Mid and upper level ridging will continue to persist despite the evacuating surface high. In turn, the benign weather pattern will continue with no large scale weather systems in the offing. Looking into the second half of the week, a day featuring seasonable temperatures with much more humidity and some cloud cover expected. Morning lows will be in the middle range of the 60s with higher dew points associated with the returning Gulf moisture, while Thursday's highs reach or exceed 85 across the area. The heat index will come into play as well thanks to the increased humidity. These values will be around 90 during peak heating hours Thursday. Surface winds will increase as the downstream Pacific storm system advances across the country.
As I stated in the previous forecast discussion, it appears as though for all intents and purposes this is the last gasp of Spring, and our last encounter with pleasant weather until the fall. Oh, there could certainly still be a front or two here in the latter stages of May, but the climatologically favored time for fronts reaching the Gulf Coast is about over with. There are no fronts on the horizon, though one might get close in the Friday/Saturday time frame to perhaps conjure up some beneficial rains for at least part of the forecast area. A strong short wave and trailing cold front will push Eastward on Friday, and slide into the ARKLATEX region. Mid and upper level ridging dominating the Gulf Coast weather will continue to hold firm likely quelling any rain chances in our neck of the woods. An isolated storm or two will be possible over the Northern extremities of the forecast area Friday due to a weaker cap in closer proximity to the synoptic feature. Most of us will see the continuation of dry weather along with plenty of humidity & seasonal May temperatures. Morning lows will be back to around 70 for Friday morning while afternoon highs creep toward the 90 degree threshold. It will certainly be time to get out the bathing suits and slap on the sunscreen. Perhaps, the only effects from the passing short wave locally will be the gusty South winds. The onshore flow will strengthen to over 20 mph at times as the disturbance creates pressure anomalies across the Northern Gulf Coast. There is a possibility that rain chances will be inserted for the rest of the forecast period if it looks like the aforementioned disturbance will drop a bit further South. This remains to be seen, and another analysis tomorrow will garner more details.
The remainder of the forecast period will remain on the quiet side. The ongoing drought will continue with no large scale weather systems expected to impact the area. Skies will generally be Partly Cloudy each day, and it will be very warm to hot with lots of humidity. It might be time to venture out to the ole swimming pool. Use caution if you will be out in the sun for a prolonged period of time over the weekend. Morning low temperatures will trend above normal running mainly in the lower 70s through Tuesday while afternoon highs climb above the 90 degree mark until the end of the forecast period as well. Mid and upper level ridging will continue to do the dominate weather feature. All storm systems of consequence will remain well to the North of SW Louisiana keeping us high and dry, and in drought conditions. The ongoing flooding situation for our neighbors to the East will continue to be the main story. No significant pattern change is expected anytime soon. It seems clear to me that we will transition into summer over the next few days. There may be a better chance for at least some standard afternoon shower & thunderstorm activity be the latter portions of next week, but this all depends on the ridging in the mid and upper levels. Day to day variations in atmospheric conditions often control the quota of scattered shower & thunderstorm activity across the Gulf Coast region throughout the summer months.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 55/83 65/86 71/88 0 0 0 0 0 10
CAM 60/79 68/81 73/85 0 0 0 0 0 10
LFT 54/84 64/85 70/88 0 0 0 0 0 10
ARA 57/82 65/84 72/87 0 0 0 0 0 10
BPT 58/84 68/85 72/89 0 0 0 0 0 10
AEX 50/84 60/87 65/90 0 0 0 0 0 20
POE 50/84 60/87 66/90 0 0 0 0 0 20
Tonight...Clear. Low 55. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday...Mostly Sunny. High 83. South wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Wednesday Night...Clear. Low 65. South wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday...Partly Cloudy. High 86. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 71. SSE wind 10 mph.
Friday...Partly Cloudy. High 88. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Friday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 72. South wind 10-15 mph.
Saturday...Partly Cloudy. High 90. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Saturday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 73. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Sunday...Partly Cloudy. High 91. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Wednesday 5/18/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 55
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 3
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 8
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 79
Rain: 0%
Wind: South 17
3p.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 86
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 20
6p.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 16
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 76
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 12
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
5-18-11
Low: 55
High: 83
Rain: 0%
Wind: South 15-20
Thursday
5-19-11
Low: 65
High: 86
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Friday
5-20-11
Low: 71
High: 88
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Saturday
5-21-11
Low: 72
High: 90
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Sunday
5-22-11
Low: 73
High: 91
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Monday
5-23-11
Low: 73
High: 91
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Tuesday
5-24-11
Low: 74
High: 92
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 foot building to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.
Wednesday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Friday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Friday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Sunday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 10:56a.m. 10:27p.m.
High: 5:59a.m. 2:23p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
163.80'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
Low: 52
Normal Low: 66
Record Low: 46-1912
High: 79
Normal High: 84
Record High: 94-1933
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.43"
Normal Month to Date: 3.13"
Year to Date: 14.51"
Normal Year to Date: 19.11"
Record: 1.62"- 2004
Significant Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 69
High: 91
Rain: 1.16"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 57
High: 84
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 67
High: 84
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:18a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 8:01p.m.
Hunting Times:
5:48a.m.-8:31p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Full Moon- Tonight May 17
Last Quarter- Tuesday May 24
New Moon- Wednesday June 1
First Quarter- Thursday June 9
Have a great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
