Good Run of Spring Weather Rolls On with a Few Changes...

Monday, February 21, 2011
President's Day

Before I get started, I want to apologize. I am a bit under the weather, so while there is a blog entry there is no video and the blog will be in short form until I am back to 100%. Sorry for the inconvenience.


SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The status quo continued on this President's Day. The prolonged period of unseasonably warm and humid weather rolls on playing the same song and same verse for yet another day. Morning low clouds and fog gave away to a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures were generally in the lower 60s this morning while afternoon highs reached the middle 70s yet again. This is well above normal for the middle to latter stages of February. Relative tranquility continues tonight as the forecast are remains under the influence of a long, fetch Southerly flow. Mid and upper level ridging remains in place as well. The weather will be changing slightly over the next 24 hours. A weak Pacific cold front is currently in transit. This front will translate SE through the overnight hours. There is a slight chance for some showers in the pre-frontal environment tonight into Tuesday as the front slides into the forecast area. Dynamics are lacking, and it is the lifting mechanism itself that will generate the possibility of a few showers. The best chance for any showers will come after midnight through about sunrise Tuesday. The front will slow down as it moves into and through the forecast area. The front will run out of upper level support as it nears the coast Tuesday morning, thus the boundary should stall near the coast. A chance for a few showers near the boundary will exist for Tuesday. Temperatures will cool off only slightly behind the front with morning lows in the low to mid 50s for most with readings near 60 near the coast. The weak onshore flow will transition to an offshore flow in the wake of the front.

Slightly cooler and slightly drier air will be in store for Tuesday in the wake of the front. Cloudiness will hang around with the flailing front in the vicinity, and some spotty showers are possible near the coast where deeper moisture will be present. Further inland, north of I-10, a nice day with more sun than clouds is expected as weak ridging develops behind the front. High temperatures will be slightly cooler but still above normal. Expect temperatures to wind up in the 65-70 degree range. This period of dry air will be brief. The weak area of high pressure will continue to be in control for Tuesday night with temperatures well down into the 50s. Skies should generally be Clear to Partly Cloudy depending upon where you are in the forecast area. The fickle frontal boundary will fizzle out as the process of frontlysis occurs near the coast. The surface flow will remain offshore will a general Easterly flow in place. Moisture return will be prevalent on Wednesday as the weak surface high slides Eastward. We will be in between weather systems on Wednesday. Onshore breezes will translate the deeper surface moisture back into the area, and conditions will be similar to what we have been experiencing lately. There will be a chance of morning fog, and low clouds will be prevalent for the balance of the day. Some peaks of sun are expected in the afternoon. Afternoon highs will reach the lower 70s, and I couldn't rule out the possibility of some air mass showers with the deeper moisture returning. However, don't expect a big rain event by any means.

More changes are in the offing as we head into the latter half of the week on Thursday. A second, stronger cold front will be moving our way. Now, by stronger I mean, stronger than tonight's front. This second front will also be of Pacific origin and not have much cold air to work with. The front will have further similarities to its predecessor in that the best dynamics and lifting will be dislocated from our area. We will have a slightly better chance for some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity especially later in the day as the boundary pushes into the region. Moisture levels will increase throughout the day, and skies will generally be Mostly Cloudy. Fog doesn't look to be too much of an issue with increased atmospheric mixing in place as a result of the advancing front. Morning lows will be near 60, while afternoon highs easily climb back toward the mid 70s. Rain chances stand at 40% for the afternoon and evening hours Thursday, so you could get wet on your evening commute as the boundary moves in and begins to displace the rich tropical moisture in place. Timing issues are still present with respect to the actual arrival of the front, but right now it seems as though frontal passage in immediate SW Louisiana will occur overnight. The front will usher in a fresh Pacific air mass as we head into Friday. A renewed area of high pressure will build in behind the departing front. Rain chances will come to an end early Friday as the high pressure is established. Rapid clearing is expected Friday. The air mass will be noticeably drier, but not really much cooler. In fact, high temperatures may actually be warmer on Friday than that of Thursday because of the drier air in place. Expect maximums to range from the mid to upper 70s Friday. It will feel quite nice with an offshore breeze.

There is a lot going on this coming weekend especially as we approach the culmination of Mardi Gras in a couple weeks. High pressure will be present to start the weekend with Saturday looking like a beautiful day as it stands right now. Another Springlike weekend is expected with the Pacific air mass en vogue. Morning lows will from the upper 40s to lower 50s across the forecast area while afternoon highs top out in the lower to middle 70s with low humidity values. Translation...perfect! The controlling high will shift Eastward during the day, resulting in a reversal of wind direction yet again. The presence of a return flow will be present by afternoon. Humidity values will begin to increase, but with the current timing of weather systems it shouldn't be all that noticeable during the day. Moisture increase will be duly noted by Saturday night with a persistent onshore flow in place. Overnight lows will be several degrees warmer likely only falling into the mid 50s at best. Sunday should start dry, but moisture will continue to increase as the day wears on. Another cold front will be approaching at this time, and rain chances will be highlighted for the afternoon and evening time frame once again. This looks to be the most likely time for enough lifting and decent dynamics to move into place to generate this potential for rain. We need the rain, so we'll take whatever we can get. That being said, it is too soon to determine if this will be a more favorable set up for a widespread rain event. Unseasonable warmth is expected for Sunday with highs in the 70s easily amassed once again.

The next cold front, which looks to be the strongest of the three highlighted in this forecast period, will cross the forecast area on Monday to close out the month of February. The inserted rain chances from Sunday will carry over into Monday as the deeper moisture gets scoured out as the sharper frontal boundary slides into the maritime tropical air mass in place. Plenty of clouds are expected with the chance for at least scattered convection. Models have wavered on the possibility of organized convection with the potential for severe weather as a surface low develops out ahead of the approaching front and sharpening trough. This solution is certainly plausible, and is not entirely discounted. However, with the usual uncertainties that exist with a forecast this far out it is not necessary to place our bets on that just yet. Instead, the best course of action is to highlight a chance for showers & thunderstorms with conditions improving through the day. The general consensus at this stage of the game is for fropa to occur between the pre-dawn hours and about mid-morning Monday. High pressure will quickly become established with a faster upper level low in place. Morning lows will generally be in the middle 50s, while afternoon highs slide back a few degrees with the cooler and drier air mass filtering in. Highs will reach near 70 on average, with some locations not getting out of the 60s. It is hard to believe we will be starting March already next week, and right now it looks like March may stat off on a quiet note contrary to what weather folklore suggests. Nearly perfect Spring weather is expected just beyond this forecast period with lows dropping back into the 40s while afternoon highs top out close to normal levels. Models show a bit of an unsettled pattern for the first week or March, so we'll see how that pans out in the days ahead.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  55/68  56/72  61/74  20 20 10 20 20 40
LFT   57/69  55/71  60/75  20 20 10 20 20 40
BPT   55/70  58/73  62/73  20 20 10 20 20 40
AEX  50/65  48/71  55/72  20 10 10 20 20 40
POE  51/66  49/72  56/73  20 10 10 20 20 40
ARA  58/70  56/70  62/73  20 20 10 20 20 40


Tonight...Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers mainly after midnight. Turning Cooler in the pre-dawn hours. Low 55. SSW 10-15 mph becoming WNW 10 mph before sunrise.

Tuesday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. Cooler. High 68. North wind 10 mph.

Tuesday Night...Partly to Mostly Cloudy. Low 56. East wind 5 mph.

Wednesday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. High 72. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Wednesday Night...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. Low 61. SSE wind 5-10 mph.

Thursday...Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers & thunderstorms mainly after about 3p.m. High 74. SSW wind 10-15 mph.


Tuesday 2/22/11 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Mostly Cloudy

Temp: 55
Rain: 20%
Wind: WNW 9

9a.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 59
Rain: 20%
Wind: NNW 12

Noon

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 63
Rain: 20%
Wind: N 8

3p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 68
Rain: 20%
Wind: N 8

6p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 64
Rain: 10%
Wind: ENE 7

9p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 61
Rain: 10%
Wind: E 5



Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Tuesday
2-22-11

Low: 55
High: 68
Rain: 20%
Wind: N 10


Wednesday
2-23-11

Low: 56
High: 72
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15


Thursday
2-24-11

Low: 61
High: 74
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSW 10-15


Friday
2-25-11

Low: 53
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10


Saturday
2-26-11

Low: 50
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 10


Sunday
2-27-11

Low: 54
High: 72
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15


Monday
2-28-11

Low:  58
High: 71
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSW/NNW 15-20


...Marine Forecast...

*Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 6a.m. Tuesday.*

Tonight...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Patchy fog late in the evening...then areas of fog after midnight.

Tuesday...East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Patchy fog. Isolated showers.

Tuesday Night...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight. Patchy fog.

Wednesday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.

Thursday...South winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers.


Have a great Monday Night & Tuesday, and once again my apologies for the condensed blog.
God bless!
-DM-

And the Beat Goes On...

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Click below for the latest version of the video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the full length text form of the blog.

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Anyone know the song "And the Beat Goes On" by Sonny and Cher? That's a little while before my time, but it describes our weather perfectly on this Thursday. There has not been much change, nor will there be much change in the overall synoptic pattern over the next few days across the forecast area. Another round of morning low clouds and fog was present on this Thursday morning, some of the fog was dense. Conditions were slightly different today as we just couldn't seem to shake the low and mid-level cloud deck across much the area. Only a few peaks of sun were noted, but that didn't prevent us from reaching the lower 70s as forecast. It was a mild morning with lows generally between in the 50s while afternoon highs trended above normal once again reaching the the lower 70s. The Southerly breeze made it feel quite pleasant despite increased humidities. Guess what? Tonight will be more of the same with quiet conditions prevailing. Patchy fog and a low cloud deck will form once again heading towards sunrise Friday. The onshore flow will prevail. The fog may not be as bad of a problem Friday morning as surface winds may not entirely decouple allowing for some continued mixing of the atmosphere. The main reason for this is an advancing storm system over the Northern Plains.  Otherwise, the same atmospheric conditions will be present across the forecast area. Any fog will dissipate in the 9-10 a.m. time frame. The low clouds may hang tough for a little while longer, but increased atmospheric mixing should allow for more sunshine on Friday. The persistent onshore flow will keep a general mixture of sun and clouds in the forecast. Temperatures will reach the lower 70s yet again and our prolonged preview of Spring will help us close out the work week.

While a break in the fog should occur tonight, conditions will be prime for fog, some of it dense, in the Friday night-Saturday morning time frame. The distant storm system will track Eastward, and our pressure gradient will relax in the overnight hours. The continued long, fetch Southerly flow will keep Gulf air pumping in over the area. Skies will generally be Mostly Clear to Partly Cloudy until after midnight. Then, as the difference between the temperature and dew point continue to decrease, this is when the fog formation will occur. Fog may very well become widespread in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday. Dense fog may encompass a wide area, so keep this in mind if you are going to be out late Friday night or getting up early Saturday to go fishing or hunting. Other than the fog, the weather will be benign. Temperatures will continue to be mild with readings by sunrise Saturday generally running in the middle 50s or so. That's about 10 degrees above normal for the third weekend of February. After the fog dissipates by mid-morning Saturday, the dry regime will roll on. A mix of sun and clouds is expected for the weekend. The entire weekend should be rather decent with the same general temperature scheme in place. Morning fog may be an issue again for Sunday, but it doesn't appear as though it'll be as widespread as it potentially will be on Saturday. Afternoon highs both Saturday and Sunday should be in the 70-75 range while morning lows for Sunday will once again be in the mid 50s or so. It looks like a great weekend to get outside and do something with the family after church. We are making up for lost time with respect to weekend weather conditions.

Some changes are in the offing for next week. Models are more consistent on the arrival of our next cold front late in the day Monday. Ample low-level moisture will be in place, but we must investigate the upper levels to fully determine what this front will do for our weather. The current mid and upper level ridging processes will continue meaning dry air will be in place. The surface flow will continue to be from the South keeping deep tropical air filtering over the region. We will remain on the Western periphery of a controlling surface high. The front itself will be of Pacific origin with a general zonal flow in place across the NW Gulf of Mexico. It is the front itself that will generate the chance for a few showers in the pre-frontal environment Monday. Given the lacking dynamics and weak upper level support, no severe weather or a widespread rain event are expected as the boundary makes its way into the area. Monday should be a day that features more clouds than sun given the approach of the front. Just a slight chance of showers is highlighted in the official forecast. High temperatures will easily reach the mid 70s, but upper 70s are attainable given increased subsidence ahead of the front. We'll get into the upper 70s for sure if we see a good deal of sunshine. The cold front will move through the area, and into the coastal waters by day's end. Weak CAA will take over, and much drier air will filter in behind said frontal boundary. This front is of Pacific origin, so there won't be a real impressive cool down that follows.

Nice weather is in store for Tuesday with Pacific high pressure building in behind the front. Sunny skies are expected with pleasant temperatures. Highs will drop back into the mid to upper 60s while morning lows return to the mid to upper 40s. That's right smack dab on normal for the latter stages of February. This front should create a pattern shift. The overall flow will increase behind the front meaning a faster progression of weather systems as the Jet Stream begins to drop a bit Southward again. Going into mid-week, a quick turnaround is expected as the Pacific high pressure shifts from our West to our East in about 24 hours. An onshore flow will commence during the day on Wednesday. The deeper Gulf moisture will hover just offshore, meaning it won't take long for the muggies to return. Wednesday should start on the seasonable side of the ledger with lows generally in the mid 40s, but as humidity and low level moisture increase in the afternoon expect an increase in clouds as well. Afternoon highs on Wednesday will be back close to 70. A dry forecast is maintained for mid-week even with the moisture return in place. Now, as we round out this forecast period on Thursday we will continue to see moisture levels at the surface increase. Surface winds will also increase as the pressure differential comes into play. A stronger trough and attendant cold front will be taking shape downstream to our NNW. This front will remain away from the forecast area until after the forecast period, but enough moisture may be present by Thursday for a few air mass showers to develop as moisture pools over the area. This activity should be scattered in nature, and won't be a big deal. Temperatures on Thursday will continue to be mild with morning lows in the mid to upper 50s and afternoon highs back into the low to mid 50s. We are falling behind in rainfall for the year, and we remain in drought conditions. We can use the rain. Our best shot at rain for the foreseeable future may come next Friday as the previously mentioned front works its way through the area. This front will be stronger than the Monday front, but is still only expected to be of Pacific origin, so again not a big cool down will follow. This should, however, set the stage, for a fabulous weekend to follow (February 26-27). That will be good news if that verifies as Mardi Gras events will really be getting revved up at that time. There is no real sign of really cold weather anytime soon, but I still remain adamant that we will have another cold shot before we can really say it's Spring. Hard to believe we can already peer into the first few days of March.



Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  57/73  55/74  56/75  0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT   57/73  55/75  54/76  0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT   59/74  56/76  57/77  0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX  54/73  52/75  54/75  0 0 0 0 0 0
POE  54/73  54/75  55/76  0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA  58/71  56/72  58/72  0 0 0 0 0 0


Tonight...Partly Cloudy w/ Patchy Fog after midnight. Low 57. SSE wind 10 mph.

Friday...Patchy Fog until mid-morning, otherwise Partly Cloudy to Mostly Sunny. High 73. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Friday Night...Mostly Clear w/ areas of dense fog after midnight. Low 55. Light SSE wind.

Saturday...Areas of dense fog until mid-morning, otherwise Partly Cloudy. High 74. South wind 10 mph.

Saturday Night...Partly Cloudy w/ patchy fog developing after midnight. Low 56. SSE wind 5 mph or less.

Sunday...Patchy fog until mid-morning, otherwise Partly Cloudy. High 75. SSE wind 10-15 mph.



Friday 2/18/11 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Mostly Cloudy, Patchy Fog

Temp: 57
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 7

9a.m.


Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy

Temp: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10

Noon

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 12

3p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy to Mostly Sunny

Temp: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15

6p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 69
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 11

9p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy...Patchy Fog Forming

Temp: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 5



Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Friday
2-18-11

Low: 57
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15


Saturday
2-19-11

Low: 55
High: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: South 10


Sunday
2-20-11

Low: 56
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15


Monday
2-21-11
President's Day

Low: 59
High: 71
Rain: 20%
Wind: S/N 10-15


Tuesday
2-22-11

Low: 48
High: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10


Wednesday
2-23-11

Low: 46
High: 69
Rain: 10%
Wind: NE/SSE 10-15


Thursday
2-24-11

Low: 56
High: 73
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15


...Marine Forecast....
Other than fog, it looks good through the weekend offshore with generally seas classified as light chop. Winds will continue to be from the South since we are on the periphery of a large anti-cyclone over the SE Gulf. These winds will generally be less than 15 knots through Sunday. Fog may hover over the nearshore waters even during the daylight hours.

Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Patchy fog after midnight. Areas of fog after midnight.

Friday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon. Areas of fog early in the morning.

Friday Night...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Areas of fog after midnight.

Saturday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Areas of fog early in the morning.

Saturday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.

Sunday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.



...Tide Data...

Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:

Low:          8:35a.m.          9:04p.m.
High:          1:16a.m.          3:29p.m.      


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    164.61'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Thursday, February 17, 2011


Low:                51
Normal Low:   45
Record Low:   20-1903
High:               71
Normal High:   65
Record High:   84-1911

Rainfall

Today:                             0.00"
Month to Date:                1.35"
Normal Month to Date:   2.11"
Year to Date:                  6.46"
Normal Year to Date:     7.63"
Record:                          3.31"- 1961


Significant Weather Observed:

Fog


One Year Ago (2010)

Low:     32
High:     58
Rain:     0.00"

5 Years Ago (2006)

Low:     53
High:     64
Rain:    0.00"


10 Years Ago (2001)

Low:    40
High:    59
Rain:    0.00"


Sunrise Friday:   6:50a.m.
Sunset  Friday:   6:04p.m.


Hunting Times:

6:20a.m.-6:34p.m.


...Lunar Table...

Full Moon- Friday February 18

Last Quarter- Thursday February 24

New Moon- Friday March 4

First Quarter- Saturday March 12



Have a great Friday! God Bless!
-DM-

Persistence is the Name of the Game...

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Click below to watch the latest edition of the video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the complete text form of the blog.




SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The same song, same verse of the weather song was sung today as it was on Monday. A bout of early morning fog and low clouds gave away to Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy skies by mid-late morning across the area. The fog was rather dense in some places across the area, especially between Beaumont and Lake Charles. Morning lows were at or slightly above normal as the modification trend continued. These readings were in the mid to upper 40s, while afternoon highs easily reached into the above normal category with readings in the lower 70s once again, except along the coast where the marine influence (sea-surface temperatures in the 50s) kept temperatures at or below 60 throughout the day. The onshore surface flow continued meaning only a continued increase in low-level moisture was in place. The mid and upper levels remain very dry with a large anti-cyclone over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. The overall synoptic pattern is acting as a blocking mechanism keeping all major systems far removed from the area. The quiet regime will roll on for the foreseeable future. Tonight skies are Mostly Clear for the time being, but you can expect around round of fog and low clouds after midnight. The fog will certainly have the potential to be dense once again. This is something to keep in mind for the Wednesday morning commute. Overnight lows will average 50 degrees or so as overnight minimums continue to gradually ease upward.

The morning fog may or may not be present in your neck of the woods Wednesday morning, there's really no way to pinpoint where the fog will or will not form. One thing is for sure, however, no rain will be found anywhere in the forecast area once again on Wednesday. The morning fog and/or low clouds (stratus deck) will give way to Partly Cloudy skies in the mid-late morning time frame yet again. The onshore flow will continue allowing for the humidity values to continue to increase. The marine influence will control the weather once again at the coast. Average highs will be in the lower 70s once again, but coastal locations will struggle to make it to 60 again with water temperatures running around 55 degrees or so. The fog will hover in the offshore waters all day long as well. Marine interests should keep this in mind. It will be another nice day if you want to have lunch outside, or take a walk or whatever. All significant weather will bypass this region until further notice. Look for a repeat performance in the Wednesday night/Thursday morning time frame with a better chance at widespread dense fog by this time as dew points continue to rise. Winds will be very light or dead calm overnight, and there will be a very small temperature/dew point depression. Overnight lows will be a few degrees in the lower to middle 50s as a whole.

Tranquility continues for the second half of the work week. The morning fog will be the only blemish. It is possible that a Dense Fog Advisory will be needed on any of the upcoming mornings. Virtually no change in the atmospheric set up will occur for Thursday. Temperatures will remain in the above category for both lows and highs. Afternoon highs will remain below 75, but above 70. A slight change in atmospheric conditions is possible Friday as the possibility of a weak surface front of the Pacific variety moves into range. All weather this week across the forecast area is moving from West to East, this is better known as a zonal flow in meteorological terms. Models do indicate a frontal trough in the vicinity, but it is believed that it will have a hard time passing through because of the blocking ridge to our SE. We will remain on the Western periphery of said ridge. Dry air in the mid and upper levels will remain in place, so no chance of rain is expected even if there is a front in the vicinity. The fog may not be as much of an issue Friday morning if there is indeed a weak frontal boundary close by because of stronger surface winds related to the pressure differential. However, a mention of morning fog and/or low clouds is still highlighted. Skies will transition to Partly Cloudy before the lunch hour. Expect a similar temperature regime as well.

Can we make it two nice weekends in a row? It sure looks that way. The same synoptic scale features will be in place translating into a continuation of the prolonged period of dry weather & above normal temperatures for mid February. The fog threat will continue to be realized as well with the onshore flow remaining deadlocked over the area. At the same time, an upper level cap will remain in place keeping dry air entrenched in the mid and upper levels. A general temperature scheme of lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s will dominate the forecast through Sunday. Skies will deviate between Mostly Sunny and Partly Cloudy, but be predominantly Partly Cloudy by this time with ample amounts of low level moisture in place. Any outdoor plans you may have lined up for this third weekend in February will get the green light. There is always something going on in beautiful SW Louisiana, especially with Mardi Gras right around the corner. Shirt sleeve weather will be quite enjoyable, and we'll be able to make up for lost time doing things outside that we have been deprived for much of this year. It will be hard to believe we'll be two weeks removed from a winter storm.

Some changes may be on the horizon looking into next week as we round out the forecast period. Models are still toying with the notion of a Pacific cold front (a weak one) reaching the NW Gulf Coast on Monday. This might stir up a few showers on Monday if the front does indeed make it here. The idea seems plausible, but the prospects of it occurring are still on the iffy side of the ledger. I will insert a 20% chance for rain for Monday given the expected frontal boundary makes it. Deep low level moisture will be present thanks to the persistence long fetch onshore flow, but the mid and upper levels will still be moisture starved, so even if there is a front don't look for a big event. We are falling behind on rainfall yet again. The winter rains have helped ease the drought situation, but overall drought conditions still persist. Nice and quiet weather holds true for Tuesday in the wake of the weak Pacific front. Temperatures will drop just a few degrees for both lows and highs, but the most noticeable difference will be the humidity. Relative humidity should be much lower on Tuesday with abundant sunshine in place. A very humid day is expected Monday ahead of the frontal boundary with lows close to 60 and highs approaching the upper 70s. The free preview of Spring continues Tuesday even with the curtailing of the onshore flow. Morning lows will drop back to around 50 while the afternoon high will be closer to 70 again. We will still be above normal even behind the front on Monday. The above normal temperatures & below normal rainfall will continue in the extended. Long range models discern that there may be a better opportunity for rain ahead of a stronger front around the end of next week (February 24-25), but that is something we'll watch to see if it materializes over the coming days. I don't see any extremely cold air in the offing anytime soon.


LCH  49/72  53/71  55/74  0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT   49/71  52/72  54/74  0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT   51/73  55/74  57/75  0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX  45/70  49/73  52/76  0 0 0 0 0 0
POE  45/70  50/73  53/76  0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA  51/70  55/71  57/72  0 0 0 0 0 0


Tonight...Mostly Clear with areas of fog developing after midnight. Some of the fog becoming dense by morning. Low 49. SSE wind 5 mph or less.

Wednesday...Areas of fog until mid-morning, otherwise Partly Cloudy. High 72. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Wednesday Night...Mostly Clear w/ areas of fog developing overnight. Low 53. SSE wind 5 mph or less.

Thursday...Areas of fog until mid-morning, otherwise Partly Cloudy. High 71. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Thursday Night...Mostly Clear w/ areas of fog after midnight. Low 55. Light SSE wind.

Friday...Areas of fog until mid-morning, otherwise Partly Cloudy. High 74. SSE wind 10-15 mph.



Wednesday 2/16/11 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Fog

Temp: 49
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 3

9a.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 58
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 7

Noon

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10

3p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 13

6p.m.

Weather: Mostly Clear

Temp: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 9

9p.m.

Weather: Mostly Clear

Temp: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 5



Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Wednesday
2-16-11

Low: 49
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15


Thursday
2-17-11

Low: 53
High: 71
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15


Friday
2-18-11

Low: 55
High: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15


Saturday
2-19-11

Low: 52
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 10-15


Sunday
2-20-11

Low: 53
High: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15


Monday
2-21-11
President's Day

Low: 57
High: 75
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSW 10-15


Tuesday
2-22-11

Low: 50
High: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15



...Marine Forecast....

Tonight...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Wednesday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Patchy fog.

Thursday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon. Patchy fog early in the morning...then areas of fog in the late morning and afternoon.

Thursday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Areas of fog.

Friday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Areas of fog..


...Tide Data...

Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:

Low:          6:59a.m.          7:43p.m.
High:                      2:47p.m.      


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    164.64'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Tuesday, February 14, 2011


Low:                45
Normal Low:   44
Record Low:   20-1905
High:                71
Normal High:   64
Record High:   84-1945

Rainfall

Today:                            0.00"
Month to Date:               1.35"
Normal Month to Date:   1.89"
Year to Date:                  6.46"
Normal Year to Date:     7.41"
Record:                          3.25"- 1929


Significant Weather Observed:

Fog


One Year Ago (2010)

Low:     33
High:     52
Rain:     0.01"

5 Years Ago (2006)

Low:     52
High:     75
Rain:    Trace


10 Years Ago (2001)

Low:    68
High:    81
Rain:    0.00"


Sunrise Wednesday:   6:52a.m.
Sunset  Wednesday:   6:02p.m.


Hunting Times:

6:22a.m.-6:32p.m.


...Lunar Table...

Full Moon- Friday February 18

Last Quarter- Thursday February 24

New Moon- Friday March 4

First Quarter- Saturday March 12



Have a great Wednesday! God Bless!
-DM-

Prolonged Preview of Spring to Continue...Fog the Only Blemish...

Monday, February 14, 2011
Valentine's Day

*Happy Valentine's Day.*

Click below for the latest version of the video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the complete text form of the blog.




SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...How bout this "lovely" stretch of weather? I have enjoyed a few days off after seemingly eating, sleeping, and drinking weather virtually non-stop for a couple weeks with all the excitement Mother Nature brewed up early this month. The good news is that our period of tranquility will carry on for the foreseeable future. The weekend was absolutely beautiful, and as promised it turned out to be the prettiest weekend of the year so far with plenty of sunshine. The mornings were cold with a hard freeze on Saturday, and another freeze on Sunday with a bout of freezing fog early. Temperatures have been moderating ever since Friday afternoon, and it is now seemingly unfathomable that we were only in the 30s last Thursday. We reached the 60s on Sunday, and top out right at 70 today. The trend from well below normal to above normal has begun. We are also in a drier period as well. The dry stretch continued today as well with more beautiful weather. After some morning fog, skies were generally in the Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy range. The quietness continues Tuesday. Fog is the only weather issue at present with areas of fog across a good portion of the forecast area. The fog will have the potential to be dense in a few places, but will only be a nuisance for a few hours. The fog will quickly burn off once the sun comes up, completely dissipating by mid-morning. Temperatures continue their upward swing as Gulf moisture slowly increases. We are on the Western edge of a large area of high pressure, so we have the presence of an onshore flow. Morning lows will generally be in the mid 40s to lower 50s across the area. This is just above the seasonal norm for the second half of February.

The fog burns off by mid-morning (say 9ish) , and we will have another decent day Tuesday with Partly Cloudy to Mostly Sunny skies at times. Some high cloudiness which drifted into our horizon today will continue to be present, but also some mid and low level cloudiness will scour the sunlight at times as low-level moisture continues to increase. The humidity will respond accordingly, but it will still feel rather pleasant outside. High temperatures will easily reach the 70 degree threshold once again, likely ending up a few degrees warmer than Monday with readings around 72 or 73. The Gulf breeze will continue as well as the controlling high slips further to the East. The overall synoptic pattern will not change much from day to day this week. The driving force behind all weather, the Jet Stream, has shifted well to the North, and ridging processes have overtaken a large portion of the country. This will keep all the cold air and any significant cold fronts away from our region. The taste of Spring rolls on through the mid-week period. Another foggy night is on tap for Tuesday night-Wednesday morning as temperatures meet up with the dew points once again. Light surface winds and clear skies wills set the stage for a mix of radiation fog and advection fog. The fog will be dense in some locales, but pinpointing where the fog will be densest is near impossible. The general rule of thumb is just allow yourself a little extra time to get to work or school Wednesday morning. Morning lows will be close to 50 once again. The process repeats Wednesday with all fog dissipating by mid-morning with transition to Partly Cloudy conditions yet again. High temperatures will average lower 70s yet again.

Goldilocks weather will remain in play for the second half of the week, and into the weekend. The chance of late night/early morning fog will be the only fly in the ointment as well. Areas of dense fog will continue to be possible with a long fetch Southerly flow in place. The humidity will be more noticeable by Thursday, but temperatures will still be pleasant. Days will be Partly Cloudy with the overall temperature scheme of lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s will continue. Highs will fluctuate between 70 and 75 daily through Friday while morning lows creep up towards 55. The models are split on the idea of a cold front pushing into the area on Friday, but this looks to be an iffy proposition at this point given the blocking mechanism that will be in place to our East. Rain chances will remain absent for the entire work week. It will be a great week to get out in enjoy the beauty of SW Louisiana. The current dormancy of our plant life and grass will be changing in the coming days with this nice stretch of warm weather. We have done well on rainfall so far this year, but we will fall a little behind for the year this week with no additional rainfall expected. I don't think anyone will complain after what we dealt with during the first couple weeks of the month. I still caution those of you with a green thumb. This spell of warm weather is surely a sign that Spring is around the corner for real, but we aren't quite done with winter yet. We can still have freezing temperatures into March. While there is nothing cold in the immediate future, I believe it is still too soon to begin planting.

The weekend will continue with Spring-like weather across the NW Gulf of Mexico coast. Morning fog with Partly Cloudy days will be the story. Major cold fronts will remain away from the area meaning no mention of rain for Saturday and Sunday. The above normal period of temperatures will hold firm as well with lows continuing to slowly increase over 55 degrees, while afternoon highs end up close to 75 with some locations reaching into the upper 70s. Closer to the coast, lower 70s seem likely because of the marine influence. Fog will also hover near the coast for much of the day as the marine influence has a greater impact down there. Rounding out the forecast period on Monday, a pattern shift may occur. The controlling and blocking high will slowly push Eastward, and a continued zonal flow (W to E) across the area will continue. A Pacific trough and associated cold front will be approaching. Moisture will continue increasing with above normal temperatures continuing. Fog may not be as much of an issue as surface winds will increase. There is some much uncertainty as to the actual timing and intensity of this front. However, it does seem likely that it will provide our next chance of rain and thunderstorms with ample amounts of moisture in place. The faster models indicate chances of rain will return on Monday, but the majority suggest the front will move in on Tuesday bringing the next decent shot at rain. For now, the entire 7 day forecast will remain dry with unseasonably warm temperatures through the period. I will hold off on rain chances until after this forecast period, with the expectation that our next front will arrive around Tuesday or Wednesday (22 or 23 February). While the consensus says our next front is on tap during the first half of next week, it doesn't appear that it'll have much cold air to work with behind it since it looks to be of Pacific origins. The nice preview of Spring may well continue for the rest of the month.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  48/71  50/72  52/73  0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT   49/72  51/72  52/74  0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT   51/73  53/74  55/75  0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX  44/70  47/73  49/74  0 0 0 0 0 0
POE  45/70  48/73  50/74  0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA  50/72  53/73  55/72  0 0 0 0 0 0


Tonight...Mostly Clear w/ Areas of Fog after midnight. Some dense fog possible. Low 48. Light SSE wind.

Tuesday...Areas of Fog until mid-morning, otherwise Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 71. SSE wind 10 mph.

Tuesday Night...Mostly Clear with areas of fog developing late. Areas of dense fog likely. Low 50. Light SE wind.

Wednesday...Areas of dense fog early, otherwise Partly Cloudy. High 72. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Wednesday Night...Mostly Clear with areas of dense fog forming after midnight. Low 52. Light SSE wind.

Thursday...Area of fog until mid-morning, otherwise Partly Cloudy. High 73. SSE wind 10-15 mph.


Tuesday 2/15/11 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Fog

Temp: 48
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 3

9a.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 57
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10

Noon

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 66
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 11

3p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 71
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 12

6p.m.

Weather: Mostly Clear

Temp: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 8

9p.m.

Weather: Mostly Clear

Temp: 59
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 4



Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Tuesday
2-15-11

Low: 48
High: 71
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10


Wednesday
2-16-11

Low: 50
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15


Thursday
2-17-11

Low: 52
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15


Friday
2-18-11

Low: 54
High: 71
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15


Saturday
2-19-11

Low: 52
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 10


Sunday
2-20-11

Low: 55
High: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15


Monday
2-21-11

Low: 58
High: 76
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20


...Marine Forecast...


Tonight...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Tuesday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Tuesday Night...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Wednesday...Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight. Patchy fog in the late evening and overnight.

Thursday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Patchy fog early in the morning.


...Tide Data...


...Tide Data...

Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:

Low:          6:11a.m.          7:09p.m.
High:          2:25p.m.        11:01p.m.


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    164.61'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Monday, February 14, 2011


Low:                40
Normal Low:   44
Record Low:   14-1899
High:                71
Normal High:   64
Record High:   81-1911

Rainfall

Today:                            0.00"
Month to Date:               1.35"
Normal Month to Date:   1.78"
Year to Date:                  6.46"
Normal Year to Date:     7.30"
Record:                          2.67"- 1969


Significant Weather Observed:

Fog


One Year Ago (2010)

Low:     36
High:     64
Rain:     0.14"

5 Years Ago (2006)

Low:     33
High:     67
Rain:     0.00"


10 Years Ago (2001)

Low:    66
High:    76
Rain:    Trace


Sunrise Tuesday:   6:53a.m.
Sunset  Tuesday:   6:01p.m.


Hunting Times:

6:23a.m.-6:31p.m.


...Lunar Table...

Full Moon- Friday February 18

Last Quarter- Thursday February 24

New Moon- Friday March 4

First Quarter- Saturday March 12


...This Date in Weather History...

February 14, 1895: The biggest snowstorm in recorded history began along the Gulf Coast. The storm lasted into the 15th. A major surface low developed and tracked Eastward through the Gulf of Mexico. An extremely cold Arctic air mass was in place at the same time. This was the perfect set up for a heavy snow event in unusual places. Here in Lake Charles, the official snow total for the storm was 22" in a 24-hour period with 20" of that officially being recorded on the 14th. As much of 30" of snow was common in places across the Gulf Coast, with over a foot in many locations. The storm established the all-time snowfall record for the state of Louisiana with 24" in 24 hours being reported at Rayne. The snowstorm crippled the area for several days. Can you imagine what that amount of snow would look like, and what it would do to our area if a storm paralleling the 1895 storm were to occur again?



Have a great Tuesday! God Bless!
-DM-