The forecast is coming up in a moment, but first I wanted to post my Easter message.
Today is Holy Thursday/Maundy Thursday better known as the Feast of the Last Supper. This is the night when Jesus had supper with His disciples for the last time before He died on the Cross. That brings us to Good Friday. Good Friday is one of the most significant days of the whole calendar year. It is a somber day, but also a glorious day! For you see, Jesus Christ, the only son of God, was sent to die on the Cross for you and me. He died for the sins of all people past, present, and future. Through one of God's many miracles, Jesus was born, became man, died at the age of 33, and was resurrected. Who could love someone so much, that He would freely accept death to take it all away for me and you? Jesus was without sin, but He loved each and everyone one of us so much, that He gave us the Ultimate Sacrifice. The sacrifice that Catholics and many other Christians make for the season of Lent is just a small reminder to us of the Ultimate Sacrifice. I feel that the significance of Good Friday is often lost in the shuffle of everyday life, even more so than Christmas. It is Spring Break for many, and a day off of work for many. Certainly enjoy the day and your time off, but please don't forget about the significance of Good Friday. Do you ever wonder how things would be in this life if Jesus hadn't gave His life for us? Where would we be? Who would we be? Take time out of your day to pray and reflect, and just thank Him for the Sacrifice He made. Do you know this Jesus that I speak of? If not, I truly hope and pray that you will come to know Him. He shows love no matter what, even after being rejected so many times over the course of humanity! You will never have a greater Friend than Jesus! Shame on those people out there who want to change the name of Good Friday to Spring Holiday! Now, we move ahead to three days later! That brings us to the joyous occasion of Easter. It's not about eggs or bunnies or chocolate, it's the day that Victory was won for all! This death was like no other, for when someone dies you can visit their gravesite, but Jesus doesn't have a grave. For on that early Sunday morning, many years ago two women came to visit the tomb, and the stone had been rolled away! It was then that the Scripture had been fulfilled, Jesus was resurrected, and seated at the right hand of the Father. Therefore, the Victory was won when He was resurrected. He died and rose again over the course of 3 days to save us from condemnation...how awesome is that? Easter Sunday...what a wonderful time to be with your family and friends and all who love us to honor and celebrate the One who loves us more than anything! Also, don't forget to remember and say a prayer for all the brave men and women fighting for our country all over the world whether its Afghanistan, Iraq, or elsewhere! Thank you for all Yes, Easter is more scaled down than Christmas when it comes to presents and what not, but the significance of the day is just as important as Christmas. I don't understand why many of the places that are closed for Christmas or open for Easter? Is Easter not as important as Christmas? My Easter wish for you is that you enjoy the time with your family and friends, and I pray that God blesses you many times over. I also hope that you remember that no matter who is in the White House and running this country, God is still in control, and is above all things! No one on this Earth can play or be God no matter how hard they try! Thank you Jesus, for dying for me so that I will not perish, but have eternal life. God, thank you for sending your One and Only Son to take it all away! Happy Easter everyone and God bless! In closing, I want to post some song lyrics that should say it all about why we have Easter!
"By His Wounds" by Mac Powell, Steven Curtis Chapman, Mark Hall, & Brian Littrell
He was pierced for our transgressions
He was crushed for our sins
The punishment that brought us peace was upon Him
And by His wounds, by His wounds we are healed
He was pierced for our transgressions
He was crushed for our sins
The punishment that brought us peace was upon Him
And by His wounds, by His wounds we are healed
We are healed by Your sacrifice
And the life that You gave
We are healed for You paid the price
By Your grace we are saved
We are saved
He was pierced for our transgressions
And crushed for our sins
The punishment that brought us peace was upon Him
And by His wounds, by His wounds we are healed
We are healed by Your sacrifice
And the life that You gave
We are healed for You paid the price
By Your grace we are saved
We are saved
He was pierced for our transgressions
He was crushed for our sins
The punishment that brought us peace was upon Him
And by His wounds, by His wounds we are healed
And by His wounds, by His wounds
What can wash away my sin?
Nothing but the blood of Jesus
Before I get to the discussion, here's a couple of notes:
-The blog is in holiday mode through Easter Sunday, the regular format will return Monday. Only the discussion, zone forecast, daily planner, 7 day forecast, & the marine forecast will be available!
-Audio blogs will be updated through the weekend, so even if there's no text form you can still get the latest weather information especially considering that we could see some severe weather over the weekend.
Now onto the forecast...
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The streak of chamber of commerce weather continues across the forecast area. That is exactly what we had on Thursday after another bout of low clouds and/or fog during the early morning hours. Skies cleared before noon, and we saw Mostly Sunny skies for the remainder of the day. Humidity values are still creeping up, but it was still rather pleasant Thursday afternoon. High temperatures reached the mid 70s to around 80 after morning lows in the mid 50s to around 60. It is eerily quiet tonight as the next storm system gets revved up out West (more on that shortly). Clear skies will be around for the majority of the night, but once again a low stratus deck and/or patchy fog will develop for first thing Good Friday morning. Some sunshine is still expected on Good Friday, although more clouds will be present as significant low-level moisture moves into the forecast area. Moisture levels will increase in the mid and upper levels as well as the upper level ridging heads Eastward, and the developing and intensifying storm system heads our way. It will be on the mild side with morning lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Friday's highs will be close to 80, a degree or two on other side of 80 for just about everyone in the forecast area seems logical. Winds will also factor into the equation as the pressure gradient strengthens in advance of the Southern tracker Pacific storm. As you would imagine an onshore flow will prevail. Winds tonight will in the 10-15 mph range, and they will increase Friday to 20-25 mph at times.
In all honesty, there really isn't much change wrt timing from last night's forecast package. The daylight hours of Friday should still be dry with just a significant increase in clouds as we progress through the day. Rain chances do return to the forecast after dark, and will ramp up significantly around midnight until around sunrise Saturday. A cold front ejecting out of Texas will be the culprit for the aforementioned chance of rain. A surface low will develop (cyclogenesis) Friday morning in the Red River Valley and move NE as Jet Stream energy maximizes over this area. The cold front will trail SSW from this surface low, and this is what we'll be pushing into the forecast area early Saturday. Deeper moisture and a weakened cap will result in the formation of some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity before midnight Saturday (8p.m.-12a.m.). This will be out ahead of the cold front. A squall line (MCS) will likely form out ahead of this surface feature, and approach the forecast early Saturday morning. While a line of showers and thunderstorms certainly seems likely, severe weather does not. Severe weather will be in a very isolated case across these parts due to lacking surface instability. There could certainly be one or two isolated cells with damaging winds and large hail, but a tornado threat seems non-existent. Better ingredients will be in place across North Louisiana, and all modes of severe weather will be possible up that way. Now, that the event is about 24 hours away, I can narrow the time frame down even further. Models are perhaps even a bit faster with the front on today's run when compared to last night. That being said, a faster arrival seems logical to me, therefore I am pinning down the ETA of the MCS to between 3 and 6a.m. Saturday morning for the Lake Charles area. It should move in and out quickly, and this will help limit rainfall totals. Brief heavy rain will be likely with the ample low-level moisture, maximum forcing, and decent convergence in place. Rain chances will be in the likely category for that brief time, but quickly drop off in the post-frontal environment. The front moves on through while we sleep (well, most of us, I'll be up...just in case!!!), and we should salvage the daylight hours of Saturday with drier air moving in and plenty of sunshine by Saturday afternoon. Clouds will certainly linger for a few hours behind the front, and there could be some post-frontal rain for an hour or two until about daybreak Saturday. It won't really cool off behind this front, it's more or less a dew point front as opposed to a cool front because there will be virtually no change in temperatures, but dew points will drop significantly. It will be on the mild side with Saturday morning lows near 60, while Saturday's highs reach the upper 70s to around 80. Winds will temporarily shift from onshore to offshore as the front flies by early Saturday.
That brings us to the all important forecast for Easter Sunday...I told you yesterday that there was the possibility that there might be a few showers over parts of the area on Sunday, and this could still be the case. However, models are in better agreement that the air mass will remain dry enough and capped enough that no mention of rain will be sited for Easter at this time. I still expect the Saturday morning front to stall out in the offshore waters Saturday afternoon, and slowly retreat Northward Sunday afternoon. As it does so, there could be a convergence zone in place somewhere North of I-10 for some showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two to form. This suggests further fine tuning. It will definitely be dry for Easter church services, and most of the egg hunts and other outdoor Easter activities should get off unscathed. Low-level moisture will begin to increase late Sunday as the retreating front brings the forecast area back into the muggies. Temperatures at or slightly above seasonal norms are expected with lows in the mid 50s to around 60, and highs in the mid to upper 70s area wide.
Next week...Monday and Tuesday will be dry days with upper level ridging in place providing for some warm spring weather. Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy skies are anticipated both days with lows close to 60 and highs picking at 80. Another potent Pacific storm system and associated cold front is in the cards for Wednesday, and this will bring us our next chance for showers and thunderstorms. There is some evidence that this could be a more favorable severe weather outbreak for SW Louisiana, but this remains to be seen. It's prudent to focus on the Saturday morning storms first. I will get more specific about this one coming up Sunday or Monday. There is certainly enough consistency to put decent (likely) rain chances in the forecast for the middle of the week. This forecast reflects that. Morning lows stay above normal in the low to mid 60s while afternoon highs will be near normal to slightly above with highs in the mid to upper70s due to the increased clouds and rain chances. A persistent south wind will be in place as well. The established pattern will continue with the system being the type that gets in and gets out, so that should set the stage for a nice latter half of the week. The cooling effects of this front will be a bit more significant, and this should result in temperatures trending normal to slightly below by the end of the forecast period Thursday. High pressure becomes established day 7, and sunny skies and an offshore flow will be in place. Temperatures will cool to the low to mid 50s while highs remain in the mid 70s which is normal. This should set the stage for a nice weekend next time around. Long range models show near normal to above normal temps with no real significant cool downs, and a front every 3-4 days. In short, the current established pattern should hold firm through the middle part of April. Stay tuned!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 60/76 62/80 56/78 0 10 60 70 0 0
LFT 58/77 62/80 57/79 0 0 40 80 0 0
BPT 62/79 61/81 58/78 0 20 70 60 0 0
AEX 55/78 60/82 55/80 0 20 80 60 0 20
POE 56/78 61/82 55/81 0 20 80 60 0 20
ARA 61/76 64/80 60/82 0 0 40 80 0 0
Tonight...Mostly Clear with Patchy Fog developing late. Low 60. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Good Friday...Patchy Fog early, otherwise Mostly Cloudy & Windy. High 76. SSE wind 15-25 mph and gusty.
Friday Night...Cloudy & Windy with showers & thunderstorms developing during the evening, and becoming likely overnight. Low 62. SSW wind 20-25 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 60%.
Saturday...Cloudy w/ showers & thunderstorms likely early, then becoming Mostly Sunny. Windy. Some locally heavy rainfall & isolated severe storms possible before daybreak. Rain ending before 9a.m. Chance of rain 70% early. Rainfall totals up to 1" possible. SSW wind 15-25 mph and gusty, becoming WNW at 15-25 mph and gusty.
Saturday Night...Clear. Low 56. Light & Variable wind.
Easter Sunday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 78. WNW wind 10 mph in the morning, becoming SSW at 10-15 mph in the afternoon.
Good Friday 4/2/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 60
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15
9a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 18
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 21
3p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 76
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 22
6p.m.
Weather: Cloudy
Temp: 71
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 20
9p.m.
Weather: Cloudy, Scattered Showers & Thunderstorms
Temp: 68
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 23
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
Good Friday
Low: 60
High: 76
Rain: 0%...60% Night
Wind: SSE 15-25
Saturday
4-3-10
Low: 62
High: 80
Rain: 70% Before Sunrise...0% Day
Wind: SSW/WNW 15-25
Sunday
High: 80
Rain: 70% Before Sunrise...0% Day
Wind: SSW/WNW 15-25
Sunday
4-4-10
Easter Sunday
Easter Sunday
Low: 56
High: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: WNW/SSW 10-15
Monday
4-5-10
Low: 60
High: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 10-15
Tuesday
4-6-10
Tuesday
4-6-10
Low: 61
High: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 10-15
Wednesday
4-7-10
Wednesday
4-7-10
Low: 65
High: 78
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Thursday
4-8-10
Low: 54
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
*Small Craft Advisory.*
Tonight...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight.
Good Friday...Southeast winds around 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet.
Friday Night...South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet after midnight. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday...West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday Night...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet.
Easter Sunday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Good Night, Happy Easter, and God bless!
-DM-
No comments:
Post a Comment