SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...First off, I hope everyone had a blessed Easter and enjoyed your time with family and friends. Let us strive to live like it's Easter everyday! I am back in the saddle after a few days of hiatus, and there's plenty to discuss in the short term. The blog will be in short form through Wednesday due to the impinging weather situation. Only a discussion, zone forecast, 7 day, and Marine forecast will be posted ! The complete blog should return Thursday! Be sure to listen to the audio blog for complete details! Let's get into some specifics...
Most of the day on Wednesday will remain dry as the atmosphere remains largely capped with warmer air in the upper levels, however, out West the front will be moving ESE and shower and thunderstorm activity which is already ongoing from the Great Plains into the MidWest tonight will expand further SW along the frontal zone as convergence increases. The advancing front (lifting mechanism) will help to erode the cap and result in the development of showers and thunderstorms late in the day Wednesday across SE and E Texas. This will migrate SE into the forecast area after dark. All the while, the Gulf moisture will continue being pumped into the region with the strong Southerly flow in place. Pre-frontal showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop out ahead of the front as the deeper moisture streams across the forecast area. More widespread activity in the form of a squall line (MCS) is expected overnight Wednesday into early Thursday morning. The MCS will form along the front and push into the forecast area between 10p.m. Wednesday and 2a.m. Thursday. It should be a fast mover, and get it and out quickly. However, there is the potential for some severe weather this go around. It certainly still looks like a marginal situation at best, and I do believe the highest threat will be displaced just to our North in the vicinity of stronger Jet dynamics and instability. There is more instability present this time around than there was with the front that came through over the weekend, therefore the threat for severe weather is a bit higher. We have been lucky so far this spring that we've been bypassed by the greatest severe threats with each system, and that may very well be the case again this time. Some of the advance streamer showers and storms will have the potential to feed off of the present Jet Stream energy and intensify to severe limits (supercells). It is these supercells which often produce severe weather, and the atmospheric profile does support the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. The damaging wind aspect seems to be the greatest risk with the strong Jet in place. As the front nears, a transformation from a supercellular environment to a linear storm environment will take place. The squall line will have the potential to produce damaging winds and large hail. The tornado threat should be very minimal with said MCS, but certainly not non-existent. MCS's can produce tornadoes from time to time if the line bows out or takes on a hook feature. This possibility will certainly be watched for over the course of the night Wednesday. The timing of the event is such that it will all be over with before dawn Thursday. Until fropa, the warm, moist, unstable air mass will be in place with mild temperatures in the 60s, and winds over 20 mph at times. The fast moving nature of the front should limit rainfall with average amounts around 1/2". We could actually stand to use some rain believe it or not...we need something to wash away a lot of this nasty pollen. I don't remember buying a yellow car!!! Conditions improve after frontal passage, and unlike its predecessor this front will come through and keep going! Much cooler and drier air will take over and displace this very humid air mass. Expect temperatures by Thursday morning to be in the low to mid 50s. A nice, refreshing offshore flow will take over as well with decent CAA in place replacing the WAA regime of the past several days.
Not much in the way of active weather is expected beyond the Wednesday night period. High pressure becomes firmly acclimated across the forecast area for the latter half of the week to provide us with some Absolutely Awesome April weather through the weekend. Some lingering clouds are possible early Thursday, but clearing should be noted early on with skies transitioning to Sunny early in the day. Temperatures for Thursday highs will fall back to seasonable values with readings topping out in the low to mid 70s. Morning lows will trend to below normal for at least a couple days in the Friday-Saturday time frame with 40s expected over a large portion of the forecast area. The coldest locations will likely get as cool as the lower 40s for Friday, and see nearly identical readings for Saturday. On average, however, lows should be in the mid to upper 40s for the rest of us. Temperatures will rebound quite nicely both days with super dry air in place, so you can expect maximums in the mid 70s. Perfect baseball weather! The chamber of commerce weather will continue for the latter half of the weekend with the controlling high pressure reigning supreme. Air mass moderation will begin Sunday with the high sliding East of the Mississippi, bringing back an onshore flow. However, it will remain quite pleasant humiditywise. Low temperatures will return closer to average in the low to mid 50s, and highs will remain at about the same category for Sunday.
The end of the forecast period looks similar to the current weather. Much more significant modification of the air mass is expected as a stronger onshore flow is established thanks to orientation of the high pressure, and another developing storm out West. Monday and Tuesday should remain rain free, but highs will creep back up into the lower 80s while lows modify into the low 60s again by Tuesday. Low clouds and/or fog will also likely be a factor at this time. The next chance for rain will be just beyond this forecast period around the middle to latter half of next week with another Pacific cold front. Of course, specifics of this system will not be ironed out at this time, and the exact effects of this system on our area is simply mere speculation at this point. The trend of unseasonable warmth should continue into the latter half of the week until frontal passage occurs. We don't have too many cold fronts left now until we transition into the long typical summer pattern, so enjoy it while you can.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 66/78 53/73 45/73 0 0 70 0 0 0
LFT 65/79 54/72 45/72 0 0 70 0 0 0
BPT 68/78 52/74 46/74 0 20 60 0 0 0
AEX 62/81 50/71 42/72 0 0 80 0 0 0
POE 62/80 51/71 43/72 0 0 80 0 0 0
ARA 67/79 55/73 47/73 0 0 70 0 0 0
Tonight...Mostly Cloudy, Breezy, & Mild. Low 66. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday...Mostly Cloudy, Warm & Windy. High 78. SSE wind 15-25 mph and gusty.
Wednesday Night...Cloudy with showers & thunderstorms likely. Some severe weather and locally heavy rainfall possible. Main severe weather threat would be damaging wind, but large hail and isolated tornadoes will also be possible. Turning cooler and windy overnight. Rain ending after midnight. Low 53. SSW wind 15-20 mph and gusty, becoming NNW at 20 mph and gusty at times. Chance of rain 70%.
Thursday...Becoming Sunny & Cooler. High 73. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear & Cool. Low 45. NNW wind 5-10 mph.
Friday...Sunny. High 73. North wind 10 mph.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
4-7-10
Low: 66
High: 78
Rain: 0%...70% Night
Wind: SSE 15-20
Thursday
4-8-10
Low: 53
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Friday
4-9-10
Low: 45
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
Saturday
4-10-10
Low: 47
High: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Sunday
4-11-10
Low: 52
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Monday
4-12-10
Low: 56
High: 79
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Tuesday
4-13-10
Low: 61
High: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet building to 4 to 5 feet after midnight.
Wednesday...South winds around 15 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots shifting northwest at 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday...North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday Night...North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Friday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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