SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The weather has been quiet since the last time we talked, and we have a few more quiet weather days to look forward to before we undergo some changes. It has been pleasantly warm with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the 50s for the past few days. Call Xerox, and borrow one of their machines because that is the temperature regime that will continue. How bout some specifics, since there will be some small scale synoptic changes in the short-term?
A controlling high pressure is and has been present in the mid and upper levels for last few days, while surface high pressure resides to our East. This has kept the weather rather pleasant with the temperatures just above the norm for mid April during the day, and around seasonable at night. Skies have generally been mostly sunny to partly cloudy. A persistent onshore flow has brought back an increase in low-level moisture, and cloud development has been a little more each day, but overall very nice weather has been in place since late last week. Some high clouds have filtered the sun at times over the last couple of days as well as some debris clouds from downstream thunderstorms have blown over the area. A storm system is developing out to our West, and since we are in between a surface high and surface low the pressure differences have been increasing across the area. As a result, the afternoons have featured a pleasant breeze, and this will continue as well. A beautiful April night is expected tonight with Mostly Clear and lows at or just above normal. The winds should help to preclude much in the way of fog development.
A weak upper level impulse ejecting Eastward from the Western storm system will pass in close proximity to the area on Wednesday afternoon. This will certainly result in an increase in clouds (cirrus and cumulus). This disturbance could also be just enough to temporarily weaken the cap in place, and lead to the development of a brief afternoon shower or two. This is a very slim possibility, and will not be mentioned in the official forecast at this time, further revisions are possible Wednesday. Other than this minor disturbance, no significant change in the weather is expected. Temperatures will be pleasantly warm once again with a maximum near 80. The prolonged quiet weather regime will help us round out the work week. The ridging processes in place will continue to block the progression of the Western storm. The temperature pattern will hold firm as well with not much daily variation for minimums or maximums through Friday. The sometimes gusty onshore winds will continue as well.
The overall dry pattern we've experienced so far this Spring will continue into the weekend, but at this time more significant changes will occur. There is a lot of uncertainty that remains at this time as to how things will evolve. The current Western system will likely slide North of us based on the current synoptic pattern across the country, but an active Jet Stream over the West will bring in another storm towards the end of the work week. This one, will have a better chance to affect our area as the persistent ridge finally nudges further East. At the very least, a weakening cold front will be approaching the forecast area by the end of the weekend. Saturday should offer a continuance of the dry and warm April weather. Rain chances will return to the forecast possibly as early as Sunday, but even this is totally up in the air at this point. I will include a small chance of rain for Sunday with the expectation that deeper low-level moisture will pool over the area. Some widely scattered activity will be possible late Sunday afternoon, and i put the impetus on widely. Dry weather is expected for the majority of the weekend. The 60s/80s temperature regime will continue.
The end of the forecast period (Monday-Tuesday) does offer hope for a decent shot of rainfall. We can certainly use the rain, as it has been an incredibly dry Spring and we're running about 5-6" below normal for rainfall for the year. The best chance of rain this forecast period looks to come on Monday as the aforementioned weakening cold front pulls into the area. Again, there is a lot of model dispute for this time period, and a definitive time frame or a confident idea about amount or intensity is simply a crapshoot at this point. I'll be able to digest this system more extensively as it draws near, if it even does. There is certainly a possibility that the persistent ridging could be stronger than currently forecast for this time period, therefore, resulting in a continuation of the dry weather currently in place. For now, I will forecast decent rain chances with the expectation that showers and thunderstorms will develop on Monday along and ahead of the decaying cold front. Rain chances carry over into the end of the forecast period on Tuesday, as enhanced moisture left over from the decaying cold front hangs around the area. The continued onshore flow, and the effects of daytime heating in the enhanced moist atmosphere because of frontlysis will lead to the development of some scattered showers and/or thunderstorms primarily limited to the afternoon. Sounds like a summer pattern, but it's not quite summer yet, or warm enough, but we are fast approaching that time now. We don't have many cold fronts left this season. The extended period shows the continued above normal temperature regime continuing for at least another week to 10 days before some cooling takes over behind a progged cold front somewhere in the 8-12 day period.
Listen to the audio blog for more details!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 60/82 60/83 59/83 0 10 0 0 0 0
LFT 60/83 60/84 59/82 0 10 0 0 0 0
BPT 62/82 61/85 60/84 0 20 0 0 0 0
AEX 57/81 58/84 55/85 0 10 0 0 0 0
POE 57/82 58/84 56/85 0 10 0 0 0 0
ARA 61/82 60/83 60/81 0 10 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Mostly Clear. Low 60. East wind 10 mph.
Wednesday...Partly Cloudy. High 82. ESE wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 60. ESE wind 10 mph.
Thursday...Partly Cloudy. High 83. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 59. SE wind 10 mph.
Friday...Partly Cloudy. High 83. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday 4/14/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 60
Precip: 0%
Wind: E 8
9a.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 69
Precip: 0%
Wind: ESE 11
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 77
Precip: 10%
Wind: ESE 14
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 82
Precip: 10%
Wind: ESE 15
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 78
Precip: 10%
Wind: SE 13
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 72
Precip: 0%
Wind: SE 10
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
4-14-10
Low: 60
High: 82
Rain: 10%
Wind: ESE 10-15
Thursday
4-15-10
Low: 60
High: 83
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Friday
4-16-10
Low: 59
High: 83
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Saturday
4-17-10
Low: 60
High: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Sunday
4-18-10
Low: 62
High: 84
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Monday
4-19-10
Low: 65
High: 78
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE/SSW 15-20
Tuesday
4-20-10
Low: 60
High: 78
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSW 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...East winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Wednesday...East winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Wednesday Night...East winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Thursday...East winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Thursday Night...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Friday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 10:03a.m. 9:28p.m.
High: 3:44a.m. 1:27p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
170.55'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
Low: 58
Normal Low: 56
Record Low: 30-1913
High: 84
Normal High: 77
Record High: 89-1992
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.06"
Normal Month to Date: 1.43"
Year to Date: 9.34"
Normal Year to Date: 13.77"
Record: 3.60"-1967
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 58
High: 83
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 51
High: 82
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 55
High: 63
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:47a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 7:40p.m.
...Lunar Table...
New Moon- Tonight April 14
First Quarter- Wednesday 21
Full Moon- Wednesday April 28
Last Quarter- Thursday May 6
This Date in Weather History: April 13: 1987...Stormy day in the Plains! Thunderstorms in northern Texas produced wind gusts to 98 mph at the Killeen Airport causing a million dollars property damage. Two airplanes were totally destroyed by the high winds, and ten others were damaged.
Three short years later in 1990, it was another stormy day in the Plains...Thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather in central Oklahoma and north central Texas. Thunderstorms in Oklahoma produced up to six inches of golf ball size hail along I-40 near El Reno, and produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Okarche. Thunderstorms over north central Texas produced softball size hail northwest of Rotan, and high winds which injured two persons southeast of Itasca.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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