SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The cold front which came through overnight, didn't bring much rain, but it did bring much cooler and drier weather. We enjoyed this today as the cold front pushed the unseasonably warm and humid weather back where it belongs into the Gulf. It was an absolutely beautiful Thursday with sunny skies and pleasant temperatures. It was a bit breezy due to the associated pressure gradient in the wake of the cold front, but the offshore winds were quite refreshing indeed. Temperatures were on the average about 5-10 degrees cooler for lows and highs today with low to mid 50s and lower 70s respectively. The winds have since relaxed a bit across the area as high pressure settles into the forecast area. This combined with the crystal clear skies will set the stage for a night with near maximum potential for radiational cooling. Expect overnight lows to be below normal in the mid 40s on average, the cooler spots in the forecast area will be in the lower 40s, and the warmer locations will be closer to 50. Call it the Easter cool snap if you will!
Not much to discuss really with the entire forecast period as far as significant weather is concerned. High pressure will be in complete control for Friday and the weekend. Expect more Absolutely Awesome April weather Friday-Sunday with only a slight variation in temperatures each day particularly with the lows. Highs each day should be in the mid 70s each day, while lows moderate from the mid 40s on Friday to near 50 Saturday to the low 50s by Sunday. Winds will shift from offshore to onshore by Saturday as the controlling high pressure pushes Eastward, and orients itself over the SE U.S. Low level moisture will be slow to increase, and the dry air in the mid and upper levels thanks to upper level ridging will suppress cloud formation through Sunday. Look for crystal clear skies and near perfection through the weekend.
Only subtle changes are expected next week, and dry weather is expected to persist through the forecast period all the way through Thursday. The humidity values will increase a smidge each day, and a slight increase in temperatures is expected during the same time frame. The controlling high will move around at random over the SE U.S., and remain in a proximity close enough to support a dry forecast for the area. Upper level ridging will also work in tandem with the surface high to keep us locked in the dry pattern. We could stand to use some rain at this point, but I don't think the nice weather will break anyone's heart. The only fly in the ointment in the later periods, may be the presence of light night/early morning patchy fog and/or low clouds similar to what we had earlier this month.This will burn off quickly after sunrise each day, but even this at this point is something that will need to re-assessed in later forecasts. Each day Monday-Thursday will likely see a mix of sun and clouds with generally Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy skies each day. Temperatures will really be near seasonable values for much of the period with a trend to slightly above normal by the end of the forecast period. In short, if you haven't had enough of this beautiful Spring weather yet, you will get your fill over the next 7 days. Certainly, it will rain again down the road, but when exactly that occurs remains to be seen. Models all over the place with no consistent time frame on when it might rain again, but it should be somewhere in the 8-12 day time frame. This is certainly a complete 180 from the pattern we experienced this winter. Why such a big change? Basically, it's because of El Nino! El Nino which was dominant over the winter is in its weakening phase, and thus a transition to a pattern of neutrality is occurring. I'll discuss at a later date how this will affect the upcoming hurricane season. This might be a record for me for shortest discussion ever, but we're in cruise control! Enjoy!
Listen to the audio blog for specifics!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 44/73 49/75 53/76 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 44/73 48/75 52/77 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 45/74 51/76 54/76 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 40/70 45/75 50/78 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 41/70 45/75 50/78 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 45/73 50/75 54/76 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Clear and Cool. Low 44. NW wind 5-10 mph.
Friday...Sunny. High 73. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Friday Night...Clear and Not as Cool. Low 49. Light SE wind.
Saturday...Sunny. High 75. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Saturday Night...Clear. Low 53. Light SE wind.
Sunday...Sunny. High 76. SE wind 10 mph.
Friday 4/9/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear, Cool
Temp: 44
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 2
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 58
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 8
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 10
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 8
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 58
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 4
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
4-9-10
Low: 44
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Saturday
4-10-10
Low: 49
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
Sunday
4-11-10
Low: 53
High: 76
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10
Monday
4-12-10
Low: 55
High: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10-15
Tuesday
4-13-10
Low: 58
High: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Wednesday
4-14-10
Low: 58
High: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Thursday
4-15-10
Low: 60
High: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday...East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
Friday Night...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Saturday Night...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
...Tide Data...
Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 6:51a.m. 7:46p.m.
High: 12:57a.m. 11:55p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
170.53'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, April 8, 2010
Low: 53
Normal Low: 55
Record Low: 34-1939
High: 72
Normal High: 76
Record High: 90-1930
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.06"
Normal Month to Date: 0.88"
Year to Date: 9.34"
Normal Year to Date: 13.22"
Record: 3.33"-1921
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 42
High: 75
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 57
High: 81
Rain: 0.01"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 43
High: 70
Rain: Trace
Sunrise Friday: 6:53a.m.
Sunset Friday: 7:37p.m.
...Lunar Table...
New Moon- Wednesday April 14
First Quarter- Wednesday 21
Full Moon- Wednesday April 28
Last Quarter- Thursday May 6
This Date in Weather History: April 8: Holy cow! That's a lot of water! The global record for most rainfall in a 48 hour period from a tropical cyclone is set at Aurere, La Reunion Island. The rainfall event began on this date in 1958, and the rainfall total ending on April was an amazing 97.1" fell.
Let's move ahead 40 years to 1998: A major F5 (would've been an EF5 on today's scale) struck near the Birmingham, AL metro area moving across Western Jefferson County leveling the communities of Oak Grove, Rock Creek, Edgewater, McDonald's Chapel, Sylvan Springs, & Pratty City. The tornado was on line to move right over Downtown Birmingham, but lifted just two miles from Downtown. The twister had a track a 20 miles with a damage path that averaged between 1/2 and 3/4 of a mile in width. The tornado killed 33 people. It was one of the worst tornadoes in Alabama history.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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