This is an update on the severe weather potential.
We appear to have dodged the bullet with the first round of severe weather. Everything bypassed Southwest Louisiana to the N and NE this morning and afternoon. The atmosphere over SW Louisiana remained largely capped as the advancing short wave ejected further N than expected. Also, convective potential was inhibited in a large way by the intermittent drizzle and light rain we experienced this morning and early afternoon. This kept temperatures lower than forecast, thus inhibiting the chance to reach our convective temperature which was in the lower 80s. However, I don't want you to be lured into a sense of complacency thinking we are out of the woods.
A very dangerous weather situation will unfold overnight. It will continue to be quiet this evening if you have any plans this evening or tonight it will just be windy and muggy. The cap is beginning to erode now, and as the main thrust of this system (cold front/dry line/surface low) moves our way, we will likely get in on the severe weather action. Storms have initiated across Central Texas up into the ARK-LA-TEX, and this is a harbinger of things to come. A Tornado Watch has been issued until 2a.m. from Central Texas into the same ARK-LA-TEX region. These storms will translate ESE overnight, and be on our doorstep Saturday morning. The most likely time frame for this to occur will be between 4 and 8a.m. for immediate SW Louisiana and til about 10a.m. for Acadiana. All modes of severe weather will be possible, and I would expect some scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop as we get closer to midnight and as the developing squall line approaches. I fully expect watch boxes to be issued later on tonight for the entire area. While the entire area stands a chance to see some severe, the greatest risk remains further to our North. I have included some graphics to illustrate.
Please listen to the audio blog for more specificity with how the weather situation will unfold!
That's all for now, I will have more updates later as necessary.
-DM-
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