Before I get to the forecast discussion, I wanted to take a minute to elaborate on the storm event across the South from this past weekend. First, we were very lucky here. There was absolutely no severe weather anywhere in the forecast anywhere, and hardly any rain for that matter. Our atmosphere remained largely capped, and that was the saving grace. All parameters for severe weather were in place, and many of them were nearly off the charts. However, it is the cap aloft that prevented storms from forming, so thank God for that.
However, our friends and neighbors to our East were not so lucky. A very powerful supercell thunderstorm developed ahead of Saturday morning's cold front. Interestingly enough, this supercell formed near the TX/LA line E of Jasper, TX around 8a.m. Saturday. It took a little while to attain severe attributes, but once it did it was an amazing and awful site to see unfold. The storm produced some hail below severe limits in Vernon Parish, but as it raced NE around 60 mph it grew much stronger, and began to rotate. As the storm ran into a highly sheared environment, the rotation increased and became violent. Near Tallulah, LA a large wedge tornado touched down. What happened next was what we had been fearing could happen all week. The tornado grew larger and stronger and continued to race NE into Mississippi. It eventually weakened as it moved into Alabama. So far, storm surveys from the Jackson, MS NWS office show that the tornado had a continuous path from near Tallulah to rural Eastern Mississippi just to the NE of West Point. The hardest hit areas were near the Central MS town of Yazoo City, NW of Jackson, and in the rural counties of Holmes and Choctaw this includes the towns of Durant and Weir. This is a continuous damage path of nearly 150 miles. Data is still being compiled on this deadly tornado, and it is possible that the continuous track could be even longer. At its strongest point near Yazoo City the tornado was nearly 1.75 miles wide, and had winds of 170-175 mph. This is an EF-4 on the tornado scale. This is in the upper echelon of all tornadoes. EF5 is the largest rating of tornadoes. Damage in many places in Mississippi has been described as "obliteration". The storm did prove fatal unfortunately with 12 fatalities in Mississippi, and many injuries in NE Louisiana and Mississippi. This will be an amazing storm for us as meteorologists to analyze for years to come. My thoughts and prayers go out to all the tornado victims and their families. God bless them all!
In closing, I just wanted to say that I can't stress to you enough how lucky we were on Saturday. If the cap had not held we could've very well endured a tornado outbreak of our own across SW Louisiana. Thankfully, that was not the case, but never take it for granted. There will be other severe weather outbreaks, and next time it could be us, you just never know. That's why I always say you need to take severe weather threats seriously, and always have a way to inform yourself when threatening weather is expected. Do you know what to do or where to go if a tornado threatens? It is essential that you and your family have a plan in place just in case. More severe weather is possible in the Gulf states at the end of the week, so now is the time to have a plan in place if you don't have one already.
Here is a link that provides more information for your perusal on the violent April 24, 2010 tornado:
EF-4 Tornado 24 April 10
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...It was another beautiful day on Monday with very low humidity, however, it was quite warm again with maximums reaching the mid to upper 80s. It was officially 88 here in Lake Charles. 88 felt good today, but you know it won't be long before 88 will feel like 100, so enjoy it while it lasts. It was a nice, refreshing start to the day Monday with morning lows well down into the 50s. The nice weather has carried over into this Monday night, however there will be a minor hiccup while we are sleeping. A re-enforcement cold front is en route at present, and it is making good progress through Texas tonight. It is currently approaching the Houston area. A weak upper level disturbance out ahead of the front has sparked off a few showers and thunderstorms over Central and SE Texas as the front makes its headway. Therefore, a slight 20-30% chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm is introduced for the overnight hours Certainly an increase in cloud cover will be observed as the front moves into the region. Moisture in the low levels is limited, but there is enough forcing generated by the front that it was able to overcome the surface dry air with a pocket of moist air aloft via the upper level disturbance. These storms have verged on the severe weather criteria from time to time this evening, however, they should weaken as they move towards SW Louisiana with drier air in place and the loss of daytime heating having an effect on the storms. Nevertheless, it is possible this very small shower/thunderstorm complex will hold together to give some of us a minor wet down overnight. We could stand to use the rain, however, this will not be a major rain event by any means, and it will likely just be enough to wet the ground. The most likely time frame to see some rain across our part of the world will come between 11p.m. and 2a.m. This is a fast mover, and a moisture starved system, so as quick as it comes in, it gets out. The clouds will increase, and we will see a few hours of Mostly Cloudy conditions. This will last until around sunrise perhaps,but as a general rule fast clearing should occur. This is a fairly strong boundary for late April, and temperatures will respond as such. Tuesday morning minimums will be in the mid 50s with a strong offshore flow in place in the wake of the front.
Great weather is forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday with high pressure in control, and a refreshing offshore flow in place. Lots of sunshine is expected both days with low humidity values continuing. Tuesday highs should be closer to normal around 80 compared to the upper 80s on Monday. Any clouds still around Tuesday morning will exit stage right before noon. No blemishes are expected on Wednesday, and the morning will be very refreshing with temperatures once again below normal. The coldest locations will likely see mid 40s on Wednesday, but the average low should be around 50 for most. High pressure will begin to shift Eastward by late Wednesday, and this will allow for an onshore flow to develop at that time, but pleasant weather is expected overall even on Thursday. The humidity will begin to creep back into the forecast Thursday, but it will still be somewhat pleasant. The increase in low-level moisture will likely result in a transition from Sunny to Partly Cloudy skies by Thursday afternoon. Temperature modification will begin in earnest as well. Thursday temperatures should be close to normal for both highs and lows.
April closes out on Friday, and as it does so the weather will change. A pattern very similar to the all too familiar summer regime is expected with a few exceptions. Humidity and low-level moisture increases with a vengeance as the controlling mid week high shifts towards the Atlantic, and another in a continuing series of spring storm systems approaches the area from the Rockies and Great Plains. Winds will be on the increase due to the pressure anomalies associated with this pattern. Rain chances will be back in the forecast beginning Friday and continuing through the remainder of the forecast period on Monday. There is a lot of uncertainty wrt the associated cold front, but it should certainly get close enough to bring rain chances back into the equation. How much rain and the prospects of severe weather remain uncertain. It is not a given that this front is going to push through the forecast area, but there are some suggestions that it will by Sunday. It will certainly takes it time moving through the area, and definitely be in a weakening state as it does so. For now, the forecast will not reflect a frontal passage. Rain chances will vary from day to day as there will likely be disturbances that emanate out ahead of the front to affect the daily chance. The set up appears to favor mainly scattered convection during the afternoon hours. This is very similar to what we would experience in the summer months, and you might want to call this a preview. Depending on the established parameters, some severe weather could be possible especially on Friday and Saturday, but the highest probabilities of severe weather should remain north of this forecast area. The chances for scattered convection will remain in place into next week. The temperature regime will trend above normal with lows into the low to mid 70s while afternoon highs reach the mid to upper 80s under Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies. Dare I say that for the first time all year, a heat index may come into play with the warm temperatures and the high humidity? It is possible that if the boundary stays in our area in the Sunday-Monday time frame that the set up may favor a heavy rain event, but again this is not reflected in the forecast at this time. There's a lot going on this weekend, including the first weekend of Contraband Days right here in Lake Charles, so the timing on this rain may not be the best. However, I wouldn't change any weekend plans just yet, as this will be a hit or miss proposition. We certainly do need the rain, so stay tuned. In the extended, another front should approach and pass through the forecast area around Tuesday of next week, and that may bring us some Marvelous May weather for the rest of next week. Stay tuned!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 56/78 49/80 59/82 20 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 56/79 49/80 58/82 20 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 58/80 50/81 60/82 30 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 52/77 43/80 55/83 30 0 0 0 0 0
POE 53/77 43/79 56/83 30 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 58/78 51/80 60/81 20 0 0 0 0 0
Overnight...Becoming Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. Low 56. WSW 10 mph becoming NNW at 10-15 mph after midnight.
Tuesday...Becoming Sunny. High 78. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 49. Light North wind.
Wednesday...Sunny. High 80. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear. Low 59. Light SE wind.
Thursday...Partly Cloudy. High 82. SE wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday 4/27/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 56
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 14
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 66
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 12
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 13
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 11
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 8
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 4
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Tuesday
4-27-10
Low: 56
High: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Wednesday
4-28-10
Low: 49
High: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Thursday
4-29-10
Low: 59
High: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Friday
4-30-10
Low: 68
High: 84
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Saturday
5-1-10
Low: 73
High: 87
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Sunday
5-2-10
Low: 74
High: 85
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Monday
5-3-10
High: 84
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 15-20
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet.
Tuesday...North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday Night...Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday...East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 4 feet after midnight.
Thursday...Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Have a great Tuesday & God Bless!
-DM-
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