Monday, August 31, 2009
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...A bit of history to start our discussion today. On this date back in 2000, many locations across SW Louisiana and SE Texas recorded their hottest day ever as a strong area of high pressure dominated the weather from late August into early September. It was the hottest week ever at LCH with readings of 98 or better every day from August 29th through September 5th. A cold front finally came through on the 6th to bring us back to the reality of September. The record high of 107 on August 31 set the all-time record high for Lake Charles. The previous record was 106 on June 27, 1930. Here is a listing of the high temperatures at the reporting sites across the area for August 31, 2000.
Lake Charles- 107***
Lafayette- 103
Beaumont-108***
Alexandria- 108
New Iberia- 103***
All locations may not have established an all-time record high for the date of August 31, but an all-time record high was established at each reporting station during the week long period of August 29-September 5.
***All-time record highs at these locations.
Now onto the forecast discussion...The cool front has pushed into the coastal waters tonight. Drier and cooler air is filtering in across the area as a light Northerly flow is present at this time. The only fly in the ointment is a canopy of cirrus clouds streaming across the area from West to East. This is due to the close proximity of the cool front, and the lagging dry and cool air. The clouds will keep Southern portions of the area from reaching maximum cooling potential. Forecast models indicate mid 60s, but we will have a hard time reaching these values since the clouds will be slow to clear out along and South of the I-10 corridor. The air will continue to get drier with dew points dropping well into the 60s across the entire area overnight. The low temperature forecast is a complicated one with said cirrus canopy in place. The clouds will move to the ESE through the night, and the timing of their departure will be key in determining how cool we get. For now, I will forecast upper 60s for Lake Charles with the clouds expected to thin around daybreak. Coastal locations will likely hold up in the 70s because of the cloud cover persisting through the night, while areas further North will have no problem radiating down into the low to mid 60s where skies are clear. Cirrus clouds or not, it will still feel very pleasant outside for late summer, and a heck of a lot better than it did this time 9 years ago. Also, quite a contrast to just one year ago when Hurricane Gustav was bearing down on the coast of South Louisiana. It made landfall during the early morning hours on September 1 near Cocodrie. I will talk more about this major hurricane tomorrow.
High pressure dominates the Tuesday-Thursday periods with lower humidity, and Sunny skies. The cirrus clouds currently in place will push further South clearing the area early in in the day leaving us with clear skies. Warm afternoons are in store with readings between 85 and 90, but with the lower humidity it will feel very pleasant, and the heat index will be non-existent. The coolest mornings are yet to come. Wednesday and/or Thursday morning will be the coolest this go around with clear skies and light winds expected during the overnight radiational cooling processes will take effect. Overnight minimums will range from near 60 in the coolest locations to around 63-64 here along I-10, to 68-70 at the coast. The drier and cooler air will begin to erode by week's end as what's the controlling Canadian high pushes towards the East coast. This will turn winds around from offshore to onshore, commencing the typical onshore flow we expect in late summer. Rain chances will not return until this time, and when they do it will be on the usual hit or miss basis. This should occur on or about Friday. The return flow will be rather subtle at first on Thursday afternoon, but become more pronounced by Friday, hence the return of rain chances at that time. Temperatures will begin to moderate as well as the humidity returns with readings warming to near normal by Friday.
Going into Labor Day weekend deeper moisture will flow into the region, thus rain chances remain with us as daily sea breeze activity and some minor upper level impulses rotate through the area embedded in the continuing NW flow aloft. It should be a typical late summer weekend with about an average coverage of shower and thunderstorm and seasonable temperatures. Not looking for a wash out by any means, so any Labor Day weekends plans you have should be a "go". There is a system downstream that could affect could potentially raise rain chances late in the weekend into early next week. I will discuss it more in the tropical section, but touch on it briefly here since it may have an impact down the road. Powerful Hurricane Jimena is churning in the Eastern Pacific and approaching Baja California. This storm on the verge of becoming a category 5 with winds currently at 155 mph. It is expected to move slowly Northward towards Baja California and make landfall there Wednesday. It will continue moving Northward through the end of the week while weakening, but the moisture from it will surge into the Desert SW this weekend. With a general W to E flow across the South expected next week, some of this moisture may be pulled to the East across the Gulf states perhaps increasing our rain chances slightly around the end of the forecast period. This is still up in the air, but stay tuned throughout the week. Models suggest a wetter pattern next week in the 8-12 day period, but this is not a forecast at this point.
The aforementioned hurricane is very bad news of course for whoever ends up taking a direct hit, but it will also have some effects on the Los Angeles area where the wild fires continue to rage tonight. They badly need some rain, and if the left over moisture from the storm could be drawn up that way, that would be a sort of cure all for the wild fires, but this doesn't appear likely based on the current track. If anything, the forecast track of this storm will only make the wild fire situation worse in Southern California. The winds will pick up due to the pressure differences associated with the persistent Desert high and the decaying cyclone. Since, they will be on the dry side of this storm, the already dry air will dry out even more possibly exacerbating the wild fire situation even further. Hopefully this will change, and they will get some relief from the wild fires soon.
Tropics: At this time, there are no active systems in the Atlantic basin, but we continue to monitor Invest 94L. This system is approaching the Lesser Antilles tonight, and conditions remain favorable for the system to develop as it moves off to the WNW around 15 mph. There are several possible scenarios with this system, and where it eventually winds up, but since it's not even an organized system as of yet, I don't read too much into that at the moment. Model output for Invest 94L is included.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, all is quiet for the time being. No tropical storm formation is expected through Wednesday.
On the Pacific side, there is a major hurricane tonight. Hurricane Jimena is a category 4 with 155 mph. This is precisely on the verge of becoming a category 5 hurricane. It is currently situated about 245 miles SE of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Jimena is moving off to the NW around 9 mph tonight, and is expected to turn to the NNW and accelerate in forward speed through mid-week. Landfall is expected sometime Wednesday on the Baja California Peninsula as a major hurricane. The current forecast has Jimena crossing over Baja California Wednesday into Thursday and weakening into a tropical storm as it emerges into the Gulf of California Thursday afternoon. What's left of Jimena will move towards Northern Mexico on Friday, and its moisture well eventually spread into the SW United States this weekend producing some heavy rainfall and gusty winds across that area. Jimena could potentially reach category 5 strength for a time either later tonight or on Tuesday as it is on the threshold of doing as of this writing.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 68/89 63/89 64/88 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 66/89 62/89 63/89 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 70/90 65/90 67/90 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 63/89 59/88 61/90 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 64/89 60/88 62/90 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 67/89 64/89 65/88 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Partly to Mostly Cloudy and Pleasant. Low 68. Light NE wind.
Tuesday...Mostly Sunny. High 89. NE wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday Night...Clear and Pleasant. Low 63. Light NE wind.
Wednesday...Sunny. High 89. NE wind 10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear and Pleasant. Low 65. Light East wind.
Thursday...Sunny. High 88. Light SE wind.
7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Tuesday
9-1-09
1 year Anniversary of Hurricane Gustav
68/89/0
Wind: NE 10-15
H.I.: 85-90
U.V.: 11- Very High
Wednesday
9-2-09
63/89/0
Wind: NE 10
H.I.: 85-90
U.V.: 11- Very High
Thursday
9-3-09
65/88/0
Wind: SE 5-10
H.I.: 85-90
U.V.: 11- Very High
Friday
9-4-09
67/89/20
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 88-93
U.V.: 11- Very High
Saturday
9-5-09
69/88/30
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 92-97
U.V.: 11- Very High
Sunday
9-6-09
71/90/30
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 11- Very High
Monday
9-7-09
Labor Day
73/92/30
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I: 95-100
U.V.: 11- Very High
...Marine Forecast from the NWS Lake Charles...
Tuesday...Northeast winds 10-15 knots. Seas 2-4 feet . Isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night...Northeast winds 5-10 knots. Seas 2-3 feet.
Wednesday...Northeast winds 5-10 knots. Seas 2-3 feet.
Wednesday Night...NNE winds around 5 knots. Seas 2 feet.
Thursday...SE winds 5-10 knots. Seas 1-2 feet.
Tuesday Tides:
Low: 9:45a.m. 8:59p.m.
High: 4:09a.m. 11:50 a.m.
...Climate Data for Lake Charles from the National Weather Service...
Monday, August 31, 2009
Low: 73 Normal Low: 72 Record Low: 63-1968
High: 87 Normal High: 90 Record High: 107-2000
Precipitation:
Rainfall Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 8.01" Normal Month to Date: 4.65"
Year to Date: 41.72" Normal Year to Date: 38.09"
Sunrise Tuesday: 6:50a.m.
Sunset Tuesday: 7:39p.m.
Good Night and God bless!
-DM-
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