Wednesday, September 2, 2009
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...No, this is not a dream...it really does feel that good out there!!! Aside from some hazy conditions, it was an absolutely beautiful day across the area, and about the weather was about as good as we ever get around these parts in early September. Morning lows were as forecasted in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Afternoon highs remained below 90 for yet another day as well. Clear skies prevail tonight, and with nearly calm winds in place as well with ridging processes continuing to control the weather. The current trough providing the superb weather extneds well down into the Gulf of Mexico...rare for September!!! Radiational cooling will take effect once again with low temperatures similar to that of last night with upper 50s North to the mid 60s at the coast. Thursday will be another nice day before changes occur for the end of the week into the holiday weekend. Highs will be a tad warmer Thursday with some locations cracking 90, but the humidity will still be in the pleasantly low category.
The transition will actually begin on Thursday, although it'll only be subtle at first. Winds will shift from onshore to offshore by the afternoon hours as the larege Canadian high slides off to the East. Rain chances will be absent from the forecast for one more day. The moisture surges back with a vengeance overnight Thursday into Friday. Minor disturbances will eject out of the Rockies and traverse the NWly flow aloft in place. Each one of these will combine with daytime heating and increased low-level moisture to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. Coverage should be about normal for this time of year on Friday, as the aforementioned disturbance slides through the ARK-LA-TEX region. As moisture increases, morning temperatures will moderate. Afternoon highs will remain similar to that of the last couple of days, and up close to 90, but the heat index will be back in vogue as the humidity returns.
A better chance for showers and thunderstorms is in the offing on Saturday. This, as a stronger embedded disturbance rotates across the forecast area. A better than average chance of shower and thunderstorm activity is expected, but the activity should mostly be confined to the afternoon. However, some late morning showers and thunderstorms can't be ruled out as the sea breeze develops. Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity will dissipate by the evening hours, so I don't expect it to rain on any of the football games on Saturday night, but any afternoon ones, could see some rainfall. A similar forecast is expected for Sunday and Monday, but rain chances will decrease as the NWly flow shifts a bit, changing the trajectory of the embedded disturbances. Sunday and Monday will be average late summer days with the sea breeze activity taking shape around lunch time. It should not be enough to wash out any Labor Day plans you might have.
At the end of the forecast period, a drier pattern returns. Only a slight chance of shower and thunderstorm activity is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday with generally sea breeze activity. Ridging from Texas builds in, and as a result temperatures will approach the mid 90s to prove to us that summer isn't quite over just yet. It's a bit early to make the call on this as it is out of the range of this forecast period, but models suggest another cold front at least approaching the area about a week from Friday. This would enhance rain chances again at that time, and then an air mass similar to the current one would follow if this does come to fruition.
Tropics:
Erika is the only game in town on the Atlantic side tonight. I will discuss Jimena one more time shortly. Tropical Storm Erika is struggling to hang on tonight. The storm actually looked better last night, than it does tonight. It is barely a tropical storm tonight, as it is feeling a great deal of wind shear from the WSW. The low-level center is exposed to the West of the deep convection. Erika's center could reform underneath the deep convection over the Northern Leeward Islands, but due to the high amount of shear this is not likely at this time. In fact, Erika appears more likely to degenerate within a few days at this time. The current forecast from the National Hurricane Center reflects a weakening trend before ultimately dissipating the system over the weekend. The shear could relax somewhat for a short time on Thursday, but this is likely to be short-lived. The current intensity forecast is maintained through Thursday. The environment that Erika will be moving into will be even less favorable for development, so the forecast for degeneration within a few days seems likely at this point. A westward motion is expected overnight and into Thursday, before a more WNW motion is expected bringing the disorganized system over Western Puueto Rico and Eastern Hispaiola. Degeneration should occur by Sunday over the Bahamas. It remains to be seen if any low-level circulation will be leftover at that time. If so, it should drift towards South Florida towards Labor Day.
Here is the Latest Advisory on Tropical Storm Erika from the National Hurricane Center:
Tropical Storm Erika 10p.m. Wednesday, September 2, 2009
Latitude: 16.1N
Longitude: 62.4W
This is about 70 miles WSW of Guadeloupe in the Lesser Antilles, and about 290 miles East of San Juan, PR.
Wind: 40 mph w/ higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Thursday morning, but weakening is expected after that. Tropical Storm Force winds extend outward to 175 miles to the East of the center.
Movement: West at 9 mph. A gradual turn to the WNW is expected on Thursday. On this track, Erika will move towards Puerto Rico by late Thursday.
Pressure: 29.77" or 1008 mb.
Forecast Track for Erika
Satellite Image
Foreast Models
In the Eastern Pacific, Jimena has made landfall over Baja California. Landfall occurred this afternoon, and Jimena made landfall as a category 1 with 85 mph winds. This was far weaker than her peak intensity of category 4 strength with winds of 155 mph on Sunday. Jimena has weakened to a tropical storm tonight, and remains over Baja California. Jimena will, of course, continue to weaken over the mountainous terrain of Baja California the next couple of days. Jimena is moving to the North tonight, and is forecast to bend Westward and slow down over the next couple of days. The low-level circulation of Jimena should emerge into the colder waters of the Eastern Pacific off the West coast of the Baja Peninsula over the weekend, and continue weakening as water temperatures in this area are less than sufficient to support re-strengthening. A prolific flooding event is possible over portions of Mainland Mexico as well as Baja California due to the slow movement of the storm and the mountainous terrain of Mexico. This will produce the potential for flash floods and mudslides across the area.
Forecast Track for Jimena
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecasts:
LCH 63/90 67/88 70/87 0 0 0 30 20 60
LFT 62/91 66/89 69/88 0 0 0 30 20 60
BPT 65/92 69/90 72/87 0 0 0 30 20 60
AEX 59/89 63/91 67/89 0 0 0 40 20 60
POE 60/90 64/91 68/88 0 0 0 40 20 60
ARA 63/91 67/89 71/88 0 0 0 30 20 60
Tonight...Clear and Cool. Low 63. Light NE wind.
Thursday...Sunny. High 90. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear. Low 67. Light SE wind.
Friday...Partly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 88. SE wind 10-15 mph.
Friday Night...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly in the evening. Low 70. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Saturday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 87. SE wind 10-15 mph.
7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Thursday
9-3-09
Sunny
63/90/0
Wind: SE 5-10
H.I.: 85-90
U.V.: 11- Very High
Friday
9-4-09
Partly Cloudy w/ Scattered Showers & Thunderstorms
67/88/30
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 90-95
U.V.: 10- High
Saturday
9-5-09
Partly to Mostly Cloudy w/ Showers & Thunderstorms Likely
70/87/60
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 90-95
U.V.: 9- High
Sunday
9-6-09
Partly Cloudy w/ a Decent Chance of Showers & Thunderstorms
72/89/40
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 92-97
U.V.: 10- High
Monday
9-7-09
Labor Day
Partly Cloudy w/ Scatterd Showers & Thunderstorms...A Typical Late Summer Day
71/92/30
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 11- Very High
Tuesday
9-8-09
Partly Cloudy w/ a Slight Chance of Showers & Thunderstorms
72/93/20
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 98-103
U.V.: 11- Very High
Wednesday
9-9-09
Partly Cloudy w/ a Slight Chance of Showers & Thunderstorms
73/95/20
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
...Marine Forecast from the National Weather Service...
Tonight...Northeast winds around 5 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Thursday...Northeast-East winds 5-10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Thursday Night...Southeast winds around 5 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Friday...Southeast winds 5-10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday Night...East winds 5-10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday...Southeast winds 5-10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday Tides:
Low: 9:54a.m. 9:56p.m.
High: 4:08a.m. 2:02p.m.
...Climate Data for Lake Charles from the National Weather Service...
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
Low: 64 Normal Low: 72 Record Low: 59- 1903
High: 88 Normal High: 90 Record High: 101- 2000
Precipitation:
Rainfall Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.00" Normal Month to Date: 0.38"
Year to Date: 41.72" Normal Year to Date: 38.47"
Sunrise Thursday: 6:51a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 7:33p.m.
Good night and God bless!!!
-DM-
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