Sunday, August 30, 2009
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...It is still August, and this weekend certainly felt like it with high humidity, and the usual scattered shower and thunderstorm activity that is so prevalent during the afternoon this time of year. Although, the shower and thunderstorm activity was enhanced somewhat by another unusual August cool front. This cool
front has moved into the region tonight, and will clear the entire area and push into the coastal waters overnight. The front was able to reach our area thanks to an unusually deep Eastern trough for this time of year. It has persisted nearly all summer across the Mid-Atlantic and New England states giving them one of the wettest and coolest summers on record. It has shifted to the SE in the last couple of weeks, therefore aiding in the advancement of the associated frontal boundaries into our region. This will be the second week in a row to experience drier and somewhat cooler air. This time around, it may be a bit more noticeable with the temperatures as well. Drier air is already pushing into the area tonight after a brief thunderstorm this evening mainly South of I-10 here in the Lake Charles area. A quiet night is in store with dropping dew points and clearing skies. The cold front has been slowly pushing through the state all weekend, and is currently creeping into the coastal parishes. All the shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished for the night over land, and aside from an isolated shower or two tomorrow near the coast where the deeper moisture will linger, rain chances are non-existent until the end of the forecast period. All the shower and thunderstorm activity will be over the offshore waters ahead of the frontal boundary this week. Expect the cooling trend to start tonight with overnight lows running from the upper 60s to lower 70s across the area with the exception of the coast where it should hold up in the mid 70s.
On Monday, drier air will continue spilling into the region as a large dominating Canadian high pressure over the Nation's mid-section will be the driving force behind our weather for much of the week. Daily maximums should be about average for the end of the August with readings right near 90. Winds will be out of the North around the controlling high, henceforth, putting the kibosh on rain chances with no effects of the sea breeze. I mentioned that highs should be near normal right around 90, but here's an aside....that is a far cry from what the daily maximum was on August 31, 2000. On that day, Lake Charles recorded its all-time record high when the mercury soared to a scorching 107 degrees. It was during the hottest stretch of weather ever recorded in SW Louisiana. I will talk more about that tomorrow.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...It is still August, and this weekend certainly felt like it with high humidity, and the usual scattered shower and thunderstorm activity that is so prevalent during the afternoon this time of year. Although, the shower and thunderstorm activity was enhanced somewhat by another unusual August cool front. This cool
front has moved into the region tonight, and will clear the entire area and push into the coastal waters overnight. The front was able to reach our area thanks to an unusually deep Eastern trough for this time of year. It has persisted nearly all summer across the Mid-Atlantic and New England states giving them one of the wettest and coolest summers on record. It has shifted to the SE in the last couple of weeks, therefore aiding in the advancement of the associated frontal boundaries into our region. This will be the second week in a row to experience drier and somewhat cooler air. This time around, it may be a bit more noticeable with the temperatures as well. Drier air is already pushing into the area tonight after a brief thunderstorm this evening mainly South of I-10 here in the Lake Charles area. A quiet night is in store with dropping dew points and clearing skies. The cold front has been slowly pushing through the state all weekend, and is currently creeping into the coastal parishes. All the shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished for the night over land, and aside from an isolated shower or two tomorrow near the coast where the deeper moisture will linger, rain chances are non-existent until the end of the forecast period. All the shower and thunderstorm activity will be over the offshore waters ahead of the frontal boundary this week. Expect the cooling trend to start tonight with overnight lows running from the upper 60s to lower 70s across the area with the exception of the coast where it should hold up in the mid 70s.
On Monday, drier air will continue spilling into the region as a large dominating Canadian high pressure over the Nation's mid-section will be the driving force behind our weather for much of the week. Daily maximums should be about average for the end of the August with readings right near 90. Winds will be out of the North around the controlling high, henceforth, putting the kibosh on rain chances with no effects of the sea breeze. I mentioned that highs should be near normal right around 90, but here's an aside....that is a far cry from what the daily maximum was on August 31, 2000. On that day, Lake Charles recorded its all-time record high when the mercury soared to a scorching 107 degrees. It was during the hottest stretch of weather ever recorded in SW Louisiana. I will talk more about that tomorrow.
Tomorrow night begins a stretch of really refreshing nights as temperatures fall into the 60s area wide. The coolest locations north of I-10 will see readings between 62-65 while we bottom out near 67 here along the I-10 corridor, and about 70-72 at the coast.
Great weather is expected for the mid-week period as the high continues to dominate the weather. Mostly Sunny skies are expected with humidity readings by Tuesday afternoon in the 30% range. Afternoon highs will still be near 90, but the heat index will be out of play. The coolest mornings will come on Wednesday and Thursday with low to mid 60s expected even here along I-10. The coolest locations north of US 190 could get down as low as 58 or 59. With the comfortable mornings, it will certainly feel nice, and is a reminder to us that fall isn't too far away. The nice, dry and cooler air will last through Thursday before the humidifying trend begins.
The controlling high will slip Eastward into the SE U.S. by the end of the week, and this will turn winds around to back off the Gulf by Thursday afternoon. At this time, the humidity will begin to creep back into the forecast, but it will remain dry enough in the lower levels through Friday to preclude any shower and thunderstorm development. A return to near seasonable temperatures will occur over the weekend. That's right...it's Labor Day coming up next Monday!!! Enough low-level moisture should be in place by Saturday afternoon for at least an isolated storm or two, but still generally going with a dry forecast until deeper moisture takes over the entire forecast area by Sunday. This will be sufficient to bring us back to the usual late summer pattern with about a 20-30% chance of an afternoon shower or storm as the sea breeze initiates during peak heating hours. No large scale weather systems are expected during this forecast period. Temperatures will remain seasonable to close out the forecast period as well. This weekend is also the start of football season, and I don't foresee any problems with being able to get all of the games in as scheduled.
Tropics:
Danny stayed a very weak system, and was absorbed by the deep Easterly trough currently in place along the East coast. There are currently no active systems in the tropics, but there is one suspect area that we're watching for the potential of development over the next couple of days. There is a broad area of low pressure currently centered about 700 miles East of the Lesser Antilles. It is currently producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Conditions are favorable for this system to develop over the next couple of days, and it could become a tropical depression as it continues to move off to the WNW around 15 mph through Tuesday. All interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system. Model output and a satellite image of the system are included below:
Great weather is expected for the mid-week period as the high continues to dominate the weather. Mostly Sunny skies are expected with humidity readings by Tuesday afternoon in the 30% range. Afternoon highs will still be near 90, but the heat index will be out of play. The coolest mornings will come on Wednesday and Thursday with low to mid 60s expected even here along I-10. The coolest locations north of US 190 could get down as low as 58 or 59. With the comfortable mornings, it will certainly feel nice, and is a reminder to us that fall isn't too far away. The nice, dry and cooler air will last through Thursday before the humidifying trend begins.
The controlling high will slip Eastward into the SE U.S. by the end of the week, and this will turn winds around to back off the Gulf by Thursday afternoon. At this time, the humidity will begin to creep back into the forecast, but it will remain dry enough in the lower levels through Friday to preclude any shower and thunderstorm development. A return to near seasonable temperatures will occur over the weekend. That's right...it's Labor Day coming up next Monday!!! Enough low-level moisture should be in place by Saturday afternoon for at least an isolated storm or two, but still generally going with a dry forecast until deeper moisture takes over the entire forecast area by Sunday. This will be sufficient to bring us back to the usual late summer pattern with about a 20-30% chance of an afternoon shower or storm as the sea breeze initiates during peak heating hours. No large scale weather systems are expected during this forecast period. Temperatures will remain seasonable to close out the forecast period as well. This weekend is also the start of football season, and I don't foresee any problems with being able to get all of the games in as scheduled.
Tropics:
Danny stayed a very weak system, and was absorbed by the deep Easterly trough currently in place along the East coast. There are currently no active systems in the tropics, but there is one suspect area that we're watching for the potential of development over the next couple of days. There is a broad area of low pressure currently centered about 700 miles East of the Lesser Antilles. It is currently producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Conditions are favorable for this system to develop over the next couple of days, and it could become a tropical depression as it continues to move off to the WNW around 15 mph through Tuesday. All interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system. Model output and a satellite image of the system are included below:
Elsewhere in the tropics, all is quiet. No tropical storm formation is expected through Tuesday.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 69/90 67/91 64/90 10 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 71/90 66/91 65/90 10 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 68/91 68/91 66/90 10 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 66/90 63/90 60/90 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 67/90 64/90 61/90 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 72/90 68/91 66/90 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Partly Cloudy and Cooler. Low 69. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Monday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 90. NE wind 10-15 mph.
Monday Night...Clear and Pleasant. Low 65. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Tuesday...Sunny. High 91. NE wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday Night...Clear and Pleasant. Low 64. Light NE wind.
Wednesday...Sunny. High 90. NE wind 5-10 mph.
7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Monday
8-31-09
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 69/90 67/91 64/90 10 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 71/90 66/91 65/90 10 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 68/91 68/91 66/90 10 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 66/90 63/90 60/90 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 67/90 64/90 61/90 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 72/90 68/91 66/90 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Partly Cloudy and Cooler. Low 69. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Monday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 90. NE wind 10-15 mph.
Monday Night...Clear and Pleasant. Low 65. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Tuesday...Sunny. High 91. NE wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday Night...Clear and Pleasant. Low 64. Light NE wind.
Wednesday...Sunny. High 90. NE wind 5-10 mph.
7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Monday
8-31-09
69/90/0
Wind: NE 10-15
H.I.: 88-93
U.V.: 11- Very High
Tuesday
9-1-09
65/91/0
Wind: NE 10-15
H.I.: 85-90
U.V.: 11- Very High
Wednesday
9-2-09
64/90/0
Wind: NE 5-10
H.I.: 85-90
U.V.: 11- Very High
Thursday
9-3-09
65/89/0
Wind: ESE 5-10
H.I.: 87-92
U.V: 11- Very High
Friday
9-4-09
68/89/10
Wind: SE 5-10
H.I.: 90-95
U.V.: 11- Very High
Saturday
9-5-09
70/90/20
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 93-98
U.V.: 11- Very High
Sunday
9-6-09
71/89/30
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 11- Very High
...Marine Forecast from NWS- Lake Charles...
Tonight...North winds 5-10 knots becoming northeast after midnight.
Seas 1 foot. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Monday...Northeast winds 5-10 knots. Seas 1-2 feet.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Monday Night...ENE winds 5-10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Northeast winds 10-15 knots. Seas 1-2 feet.
Tuesday Night...Northeast winds 5-15 knots. Seas 1-2 feet.
Wednesday...Northeast winds 10-15 knots. Seas 1-2 feet.
Monday Tides:
High: 4:12a.m.
Low: 8:24p.m.
Climate Data for Lake Charles- Courtesy of NWS Lake Charles
Sunday, August 30, 2009
Low: 72 Normal Low: 73 Record Low: 61-1992
High: 92 Normal High: 90 Record High: 105-2000
Precipitation:
Rainfall Today: 0.14"
Month to Date: 8.01" Normal Month to Date: 4.66"
Year to Date: 41. 72" Normal Year to Date: 37.90"
Sunrise Monday: 6:49a.m.
Sunset Monday: 7:36p.m.
Have a great week! Good night and God bless!!!
-DM-
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