The forecast is coming up, but first...This week marks the 4 year anniversary of the worst natural disaster to ever strike SW Louisiana...Hurricane Rita. I'll spend today and tomorrow looking back on the storm. I'll discuss the history of the storm, its impact on our region, and how things have changed since. Rita made landfall on September 24, 2005 at 2:38 a.m. at Johnson Bayou, LA. Rita, once a category 5 over the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, made landfall as a category 3 with 120 mph winds. The storm surge from Rita was equivalent to that of a category 4 storm. The storm surge was as high as 20' across portions of Cameron Parish and greater than 10' across the entire SW Louisiana coastline. Coastal communities such as Cameron, Holly Beach, Creole, and Johnson Bayou were completely destroyed by Rita from the extreme storm surge. Major structural damage from hurricane force winds over 100 mph occurred across a large area, and extended well inland. Major damage occurred in Lake Charles, Sulphur, Orange, Beaumont, and Port Arthur and all points in between.The Lake Area experienced sustained hurricane force winds for 6-8 hours from late on the 23rd through around sunrise on Saturday the 24th. Tropical storm force conditions began during the afternoon on Friday the 23rd and continued through the afternoon hours on the 24th. The storm surge penetrated as far inland as Lake Charles with water from the Gulf backing up the Calcasieu River. The surge reached levels never before seen in Lake Charles with 6-8' of water in downtown, these levels were exceeded during Hurricane Ike.
Rita formed from a tropical wave that became better organized near the Turks and Caicos Islands on the evening of September 17th. Rita steadily strengthened and first effected the Florida Keys and South Florida as a category 1 hurricane on Tuesday, September 20. Rita passed through the Florida Straits later on the 20th, and entered the Gulf of Mexico. A strengthening trend continued and Rita was a category 2 upon entrance into the Gulf. Initially, Rita was forecast to make landfall along the middle Texas coast near Corpus Christi, but many meteorologists were becoming increasingly concerned that landfall would be further up the coast. What happened next was amazing! Three weeks removed from Category 5 Hurricane Katrina, Rita underwent rapid intensification processes, and attained Category 5 status with 175 mph sustained winds in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico. Conditions were absolutely perfect for strengthening with a strong ridge of high pressure over the top of Rita creating no shear in the Gulf, and a very high oceanic heating content. Rita continued on a W to WNW course into the 21st, and on the evening of Wednesday September 21, Rita reached peak intensity with winds of 175 mph and a pressure of 897 mb. or 26.49". At the time, that was the 3rd lowest pressure ever recorded anywhere in the Atlantic Basin, surpassing even Katrina. At the time of its peak intensity Rita's hurricane force wind field extended outward 70 miles from the center, while the tropical storm force wind field extended out to 185 miles from the center. The wind field would later expand as the storm weakened. A continued bend in the forecast models, and expansion of the wind field continued to raise concerns for our area, and a direct hit from a major hurricane was becoming more and more likely. The National Hurricane Center issued a Hurricane Watch for the Louisiana and Texas coastline from Port Mansfield, TX to Cameron on Wednesday afternoon.
On Thursday, September 22, the threat from Rita was realized even more so, as a mandatory evacuation was ordered for Calcasieu Parish for the first time in history. Rita maintained its category 5 strength through the night of the 21st into the 22nd, and the forecast models were now all clustered on landfall occurring near the Sabine River, which is a worst case scenario for our area. Hurricane Warnings were put into effect along the Texas and Louisiana coast from Port O'Connor to Morgan City at 10a.m. on the 22nd. Hurricanes like Rita rarely maintain category 5 intensity for very long periods of time, and Rita was a category 5 for less than 24 hours. A slow weakening began during the afternoon of the 22nd, as Rita encountered a bit of SW shear, and went through the typical eyewall replacement cycles that hurricanes go through. Rita remained a very dangerous category 4 hurricane into the night on the 22nd, while everyone continued to heed the warnings and evacuate the area. Millions of Gulf Coast residents evacuated, and this created havoc and chaos on the interstate highway systems especially across the Houston Metro area.
Rita continued on its collision course with SW Louisiana, and by Friday September 23 a direct hit was inevitable. Rita had continued to weaken, and was now at category 3, still a very formidable, and serious hurricane with 130 mph winds. Conditions would deteriorate rapidly during the day on the 23rd, and the outer rain bands from Rita began moving across the area by lunch time. The wind field with Rita by 10a.m. on the 23rd has reached 85 miles for hurricane force winds and 205 miles for tropical storm force. The tropical storm force winds moved into coastal areas of SW Louisiana during the early afternoon hours, and overspread the entire area by Friday night. Rita weakened only slightly more before landfall, and weakened to a 120 mph category 3 storm at landfall. Landfall occurred at Johnson Bayou at 2:38a.m. on Saturday, September 24. Sustained hurricane force winds reached the coastline between 6 and 8p.m. on the 23rd, and the first hurricane force gusts occurred in Lake Charles shortly after 9p.m. Sustained winds of over 100 mph, and as high as 130 mph in some areas occurred across SW Louisiana between midnight and 6a.m. on Saturday the 24th. After landfall, the eye of Rita moved Northward through Western Cameron and Calcasieu Parish and Eastern Jefferson and Orange County. The path of the eye was through communities such as Johnson Bayou, Port Arthur, Vinton, Orange, and Deweyville.While the eye of Rita didn't track right over the city of Lake Charles, the position of the eye placed the city in the NE eye wall, which is where the worst of the weather always is with hurricanes. Many spin off tornadoes, the incredible storm surge, and the highest winds occurred during this time. There were likely so many spin off tornadoes with Rita, that to this date 4 years later, an accurate count has not been given. Major damage occurred to many homes and businesses in the area including the Capital One Tower downtown and major damage to the terminal at the Lake Charles Regional Airport. There likely wasn't a home or business in the area that didn't at least have some damage, and many homes and businesses were severely damaged or destroyed by fallen trees or storm surge. The surge in Cameron Parish was so severe, that in many locations only a slab was left.
Our lives were turned upside down on September 24, 2005 by the very worst of Mother Nature. As bad as the damage was from Rita, thankfully the loss of life was minimal. A lot of this is likely attributed to Katrina, because I feel that many wouldn't have evacuated if Katrina had not occurred 3 weeks prior. Most of the fatalities with Rita were in SE Texas and occurred during the evacuation from Houston. A bus accident on I-45 between Houston and Dallas took the lives of 55 evacuees. 7 direct fatalities occurred with Rita, 3 of which were here in the Lake Charles-Beaumont area. The total damage amount from Rita across the area was $10 billion, making Rita one of the top 5 costliest natural disasters on record. Rita was the first major hurricane to strike our area directly in 48 years. Hurricane Audrey in 1957 was the last, and hopefully it will be a very long time before this occurs again. Rita changed SW Louisiana forever, and changed the way of life for a lot of people, and our coastline will never be same. We have learned a lot of lessons from Rita. There's so much more to say about Rita, and part two will come tomorrow night. Here's a few images of Rita.
This is an image of Rita over the Gulf at peak intensity on 9/21/05
A radar image of Rita near landfall...Just before the worst of the storm moved into the Lake Charles area:
The site includes pictures of damage from around the area, and links to satellite and radar images, and also features a comparison of Rita and Audrey.
More to come tomorrow on Rita, including my own documentation of the storm and evacuation. I was at ULM at the time. Now onto the forecast discussion:
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Not as much in the way of shower and thunderstorm activity across the forecast area with only scattered, most light activity across the area in the wake of the cold front which barely made it through the area yesterday. More widespread shower and thunderstorm activity was located just off to our East most of the day along the stalled frontal boundary bisecting the state from near Tallulah to around Morgan City. Another area of shower activity mostly as the result of overrunning was situated over Central Texas behind a stronger cold front which will not make it through our area due to a very strong SW flow over the Western Gulf, and a stalled upper level low over the Great Plains. Mostly Cloudy and Humid conditions dominated the weather today with a few peaks of sun. Temperatures weren't much cooler behind the front with morning lows averaging warmer than normal in the low 70s while afternoon highs reached the mid 80s. Rain chances will remain in the forecast tonight as Gulf moisture continues to stream over the area, and an advancing disturbance moves towards the area from the Central Texas cold front. Overcast conditions will prevail as perusal of satellite data tonight shows a cloud canopy existing well back into Texas. Boy, it would be nice to get in on some of the air behind the second front...it's in the upper 50s in the Texas Hill Country; an area that was hit hard by very hot temperatures and severe drought this summer. We'll cool off eventually, but not yet.
For Thursday and Friday, the forecast is a tricky one. That, with the disturbance moving across, and the potential rainfall it may produce especially with the continued SW flow aloft. The stream of moisture is evident at this time with the aforementioned area of showers streaming NEward across the Texas Hill Country and approaching Houston tonight. With not much headway expected by the stronger frontal boundary, I don't expect widespread showers across the area, as shown by some of the models. However, with the deep moisture pooling in from the Gulf despite an offshore flow, some showers are expected across the area, but certainly nothing to the effect of what we saw across the on Tuesday. A thunderstorm or two can't be ruled out, but this is a pattern that favors just general rain as opposed to thunderstorms. With the effects of daytime heating, better chances for seeing rain will come later in the day, and the highest chances will be split into two areas. The highest chances for continuous shower activity will be over SE Texas up through the Toledo Bend area to near Alexandria, while a bigger threat for thunderstorms will exist across the SE portion of the forecast area through Acadiana closer to the stalled frontal boundary. Radar currently shows some shower/thunderstorm activity in the offshore waters moving to the NE, so some rainfall can't be ruled out for the Thursday morning commute, but certainly not everyone will see it, and should mostly be light. Overcast conditions will only a few peaks of sun should be the general rule for the next couple of days. The forecast for Friday is one that is similar to Thursday with all the same players on the field...the stalled front could waver one direction or the other, but won't move much, and the stalled upper low over the Great Plains will only slowly begin to move on Friday. The temperature forecast for the Thursday/Friday period is one that is actually easier than the precipitation forecast. Lows tonight and Thursday night should vary from West to East depending on your proximity to the stalled boundary. 60s are expected across SE Texas through Central Louisiana, while lower SW Louisiana will see readings in the lower 70s, and Acadiana will see readings in the mid 70s. Highs should be close to normal for late September especially in areas where it doesn't rain. In areas where the rain is more persistent, it will have a hard time warming up much above 80. Rain chances will be kept in the high end chance category for the time being with further revisions based on model data and radar trends.
Changes occur over the weekend as the Great Plains ULL ejects out as the next advancing trough gives it the boot, and the stalled front just to our East dissipates. High pressure nosing in from the North will usher in drier air for the weekend, but not really anything cooler just yet. At present, I will retain only a slight chance of rain for Saturday, and none for Sunday. A stray shower or two underneath leftover moisture is possible Saturday, but not likely. High pressure should suppress any thunderstorm development Sunday, thus the dry forecast. As we expect more sun this weekend, a warmer forecast is expected as well with highs in the upper 80s and lows near 70...not exactly fall-like, but not unusual for late September around these parts either.
The latter stages of the forecast period do offer some hope for a switch to fall. A cold front is forecast to move through the area on Monday, but most of the dynamics needed to generate widespread shower and thunderstorm activity with it are forecast to remain North of our area at this time. The front itself should serve as a focal point with an onshore flow in place to generate some shower or thunderstorm activity, but chances for rain should remain in the chance category. This front will usher in some drier and finally some cooler air, most likely progressively by Tuesday and Wednesday to close out the forecast period and the month of September. Lows will drop to near seasonable in the mid to upper 60s by Tuesday, and lower to middle 60s seem reasonable for Wednesday while highs remain in the middle 80s. A stronger front looks to arrive just beyond the forecast period, and hopefully that one will drop all of us into the 50s for lows and 70s for highs...either way this beats conditions from 4 years ago tonight.
Tropics: The signs of El Nino are certainly present in the tropics, as there is not a single named storm across the entire Atlantic Basin. A high shear environment remains in place, and El Nino is partially responsible for this. The tropics are quiet, and should remain this way through Friday with no tropical storm development expected.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecasts:
LCH 70/84 71/84 72/87 30 40 30 40 20 20
LFT 72/84 74/84 72/86 40 60 30 50 20 20
BPT 68/82 69/84 71/88 30 50 30 40 20 20
AEX 68/82 68/84 66/88 40 60 30 50 20 20
POE 67/81 68/84 67/88 40 60 30 50 20 20
ARA 75/85 75/84 73/87 40 60 30 50 20 20
Tonight...Cloudy with a 30% chance of rain. Low 70. North wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday...Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of rain. High 84. North wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday Night...Cloudy with a 30% chance of rain. Low 71. North wind 10 mph.
Friday...Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 84. NE wind 10-15 mph.
Friday Night..Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of rain. Low 72. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Saturday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm. High 87. East wind 10 mph.
7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
*Graphics for 7 Day Currently Unavailable due to Computer Crash Last Week
Thursday
9-24-09
4 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Rita
Sky: M/C
Precip: 40%
Low: 70
High: 84
Wind: N 10-15
Friday
9-25-09
Sky: M/C
Precip: 40%
Low: 71
High: 84
Wind: NE 10-15
Saturday
9-26-09
Sky: P/C-M/C
Precip: 20%
Low: 72
High: 87
Wind: NE 5-10
Sunday
9-27-09
Sky: P/C
Precip: 0%
Low: 72
High: 88
Wind: NE 5-10
Monday
9-28-09
Sky: P/C-M/C
Precip: 30%
Low: 73
High: 89
Wind: SE/NW 10-20
Tuesday
9-29-09
Sky: P/C-M/S
Precip: 0%
Low: 68
High: 84
Wind: NNW 10-15
Wednesday
9-30-09
Sky: M/S
Precip: 0%
Low: 65
High: 85
Wind: NW/SW 10-15
...Marine Forecast from NWS Lake Charles...
Tonight...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Thursday Night...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Friday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday Night...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Saturday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tide Data...Tidal Information Provided is for Calcasieu Pass,LA...
Thursday Tides:
Low: 2:44p.m.
High: None
Lake Charles Climate Summary from NWS Lake Charles...
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Low: 73
Normal Low: 67
Record Low: 49-1982
High: 87
Normal High: 86
Record High: 97-1910
Rainfall:
Today: Trace
Month: 4.97"
Normal Month to Date: 4.69"
Year: 46.69"
Normal Year to Date: 42.78"
Record: 2.54"-2005 (Hurricane Rita)
Sunrise Thursday: 7:02a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 7:07p.m.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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