SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The weather pattern discussed in detail last week continues to dominate the weather across the state as we start the new work week. The pesky upper level low and weak surface low continues to slowly move off to the East tonight. The upper level low is currently situated over NE Texas between Tyler and Shreveport while the surface low is located a bit further to the SE between Fort Polk and Shreveport. Each low will slowly move Eastward for the next couple of days. Showers and thunderstorms were widespread over the weekend, and it was another day of above normal coverage across the area today, but conditions began to improve with a longer period of sunshine this afternoon. Some drier air wrapping around the lows moved into SW Louisiana this afternoon to preclude additional development once the sun came out to warm temperature up into the mid to upper 80s. It'll take a couple more days to get rid of the rain chances with the upper level low in the vicinity and slow to move out, but as we progress towards the weekend we will dry out nicely.
The surface low is the low that formed in the Gulf over the weekend, and it is working in tandem with the upper level low to keep a deep, tropical air mass in place across the forecast area. With the lows making their closest approach to SW Louisiana tonight into Tuesday, a chance for showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast overnight. The drier air that entrained into the area around the upper level low this afternoon has moved out tonight, and some additional shower and thunderstorm activity has developed. Better rain chances through tonight and tomorrow will be off to our North closer to the slow moving lows. A threat for flooding will also exist mainly across the Northern half of the state. The heaviest rainfall tonight has been in the vicinity of Monroe. Intervals of sunshine are expected on Tuesday, but it could still rain at any time as we're not quite back to a normal late summer pattern just yet. Rain chances will be above normal for the entire area, but will be highest for Fort Polk and Alexandria and lowest along the coast. The combination of the energy generated by the upper level and surface lows, daytime heating, and the sea breeze will certainly produce an environment favorable for off and on showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will continue off the Gulf until the lows move to our East. Rain chances will remain above normal for Wednesday as the lows reluctantly move East. Temperatures for this time period will be seasonable with very high humidity values.
Improving weather should begin around Thursday with rain chances dropping as drier air moves in behind the departing upper level low. Winds will also transition from an offshore component to an onshore component. This will help in bringing drier air and increasing subsidence into the area. A chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm will remain in the forecast as daytime heating will help to induce a few late summer afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but overall coverage will transition from above normal to below normal. Temperatures will virtually remained unchanged for afternoon highs, but morning lows will be a tad cooler mainly due to the effects of the drier air. The lack of a cold front will not change temperatures much just yet.
For Friday and the weekend...good news!!! Little or no chance of rain is forecast as drier air dominates the forecast with an established Northerly flow at the surface continuing behind the departing and weakening cut off low. Temperatures will remain seasonable with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows near normal in the mid to upper 60s. It looks like a complete opposite compared to this past weekend, and it should be very enjoyable for any outdoor activities whether its a football game or whatever. Some changes are in store to close out the forecast period on Monday. A cool front will be approaching, and this will bring back a chance of showers and thunderstorms, but at this time it looks like only about an average chance of showers and thunderstorms as the offshore flow ahead of it should be short-lived. A quick shot of showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this boundary, but the usual timing issues with the models exist at this time, and the front could arrive a day or two later. For now I will be optimistic and forecast frontal passage on Monday. Cooler and drier weather will follow in its wake with a taste of fall right on cue next week for the official first day of fall, but that's beyond the scope of this forecast period.
Tropics: It is prime time, but all is quiet in the tropics right now. The environment over the Atlantic and Caribbean is one that is very hostile, and not conducive to development at this time. No tropical storm formation is expected through Wednesday.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 74/87 73/87 71/88 30 40 20 40 20 20
LFT 73/88 74/87 71/87 20 40 20 40 20 20
BPT 75/88 74/88 72/88 20 40 20 30 20 20
AEX 72/86 72/86 68/89 40 60 30 50 20 20
POE 72/86 72/86 68/89 40 60 30 50 20 20
ARA 75/87 74/88 72/87 20 40 30 40 20 20
Tonight...Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 74. Light SE wind.
Tuesday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 87. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday Night...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 73. Light SE wind.
Wednesday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 87. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday Night...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 71. Light SW wind.
Thursday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 88. SSW wind becoming NNW at 10-15 mph.
7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Tuesday
9-15-09
74/87/40
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 93-98
U.V.: 9- High
Wednesday
9-16-09
73/87/40
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 93-98
U.V.: 9- High
Thursday
9-17-09
71/88/20
Wind: SSW 10-15
H.I.: 90-95
U.V.: 10- High
Friday
9-18-09
68/88/0
Wind: NNW 10-15
H.I.: 87-93
U.V.: 10- High
Saturday
9-19-09
67/88/0
Wind: NW 5-10
H.I.: 85-90
U.V.: 10- High
Sunday
9-20-09
69/87/0
Wind: NW/SW 10-15
H.I: 88-93
U.V.: 10- High
Monday
9-21-09
71/86/30
Wind: SSE/NNW 10-15
H.I.: 90-95
U.V.: 9- High
...Marine Forecast from NWS Lake Charles...
Tonight...West winds 10-15 knots. Seas 2-3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday...West winds 10-15 knots. Seas 1-2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night...West winds 10-15 knots decreasing to 5-10 knots after midnight. Seas 2-3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...West winds 5-10 knots. Seas 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night And Thursday...Northwest winds 5-10 knots. Seas 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday Tides:
Low: 8:02a.m. 8:04p.m.
High: 2:46a.m. 10:59p.m.
...Climate Data for Lake Charles from NWS Lake Charles...
Monday, September 14, 2009
Low: 75
Normal Low: 70
Record Low: 52-1940
High: 87
Normal High: 88
Record High: 99-1939
Precipitation:
Rain Today: 0.09"
Month to Date: 3.64"
Normal Month to Date: 2.86"
Year to Date: 45.36"
Normal Year to Date: 40.95"
Sunrise Tuesday: 6:57a.m.
Sunset Tuesday: 7:18p.m.
Good night and God bless!!!
-DM-
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