Drier, but Not Cooler For the Weekend, But Cooler and Drier Next Week...

Thursday, September 24, 2009

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...A refreshing North breeze is making it feel kinda nice outside tonight. Not much change from the previous forecast period as the same set up controls the weather tonight. The stalled frontal boundary from Tuesday remains draped across the Atchafalaya Basin, while overrunning continues to our West in the vicinity of the secondary, much stronger front. We are caught in between with very little in the way of weather going on aside from a low overcast and an occasional light shower scattered about the area. An upper level low over the Great Plains remains nearly stationary tonight, but all of these will begin to have less of an impact on our weather over the next 24 hours. Generally, a quiet night is in store with overcast conditions and a light North breeze. Temperatures will drop a bit into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Some light showers are possible across the area, but better rain chances will remain to the NW and SE of the forecast area. At present, radar shows a heavier shower over Central Vermilion Parish near Abbeville. Other than that, only some light showers show up across North Louisiana between Ruston and Natchitoches with another area of light rain between Shreveport and Tyler and Lufkin and Jasper. The flow at the surface remains out of the North behind the stalled boundary, while in the upper levels the flow remains out of the SW, and that is the direction in which these showers are moving from. It is this overrunning pattern that will keep chances of rain in the forecast through Friday, but no widespread rain is expected. Mostly Cloudy skies will continue as well with a few peaks of sun from time to time.

For the weekend, dry weather is expected as high pressure noses in from the North as the Great Plains ULL ejects out to the NE. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm will remain in the forecast for Saturday as the frontal boundary washes out and leaves behind a moisture axis. Despite the surface flow remaining offshore, daytime heating will still allow for some scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop, but more sunshine is still expected as skies transition from Mostly Cloudy to Partly Cloudy. For Sunday, rain chances should be non-existent as the front will be dissipated by that time with the Mid West High in control. It will be on the warm side for afternoon highs both Saturday and Sunday with readings in the mid to upper 80s while morning lows range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. With the drier air in place, mornings should feel somewhat pleasant, but not really fall-like at all.

Changes are still on tap for Monday as our next and stronger cold front moves through, and unlike its predecessor this one will have no trouble making it all the way through the state. A shift in the overall pattern of the Jet Stream across the country will allow for a deeper trough this go around, however, that being said, the best dynamics needed to support widespread shower and thunderstorm activity of the front will bypass our area to the North, so only a modest chance of rain is expected with the front itself acting as the focal point for shower and thunderstorm development. Temperatures for Monday ahead of the front should remain on the warm side with readings in the upper 80s to near 90 after morning lows around 70. The boundary quickly clears the area, and right now the ETA (Estimated Time of Arrival) of the front should be mid-day or so. A brief return flow will set up ahead of the boundary Monday morning, only to be quickly displaced by a more pronounced North wind once again.

Quiet weather is expected for the Tuesday and Wednesday period as high pressure builds in behind the departing front. Sunny skies and cooler temperatures will move with morning lows well down into the 60s especially Wednesday morning. The afternoons will still be warm with readings in the mid 80s, but a noticeable drop in humidity will make it feel refreshing. A fast upper flow should be established behind Monday's deep trough, and another cold front will be coming down the pipe and into range by Thursday. This will set up a return flow off the Gulf, and an increase in low-level moisture will ensue. Temperatures should still be pleasant in the 60s Thursday morning, but some return flow showers can't be ruled out in the more humid air by Thursday afternoon. The timing of the actual late week front is still a bit uncertain, and right now models suggest that Friday is the most likely day for this to occur with a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms, but this is the kind of forecast this is certainly do some revisions as we get into next week. We'll be heading into October at the end of the forecast period, and this is often one of the driest months of the year around here, but with El Nino in place all bets are off.

Tropics: No tropical storm formation is expected into the weekend, but there's a tropical wave that has just emerged off the coast of Africa that will have the chance to develop over the coming days. Development, if any, will be slow to occur as the system moves off to the WNW at 10-15 mph through the weekend.

Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecasts:

LCH  68/85  69/88  70/90   30 30 30 20 10 20
LFT   72/85  72/88  71/90   40 30 30 20 10 30
BPT   67/84  68/89  72/90   30 30 30 20 10 20
AEX  65/84  67/87  68/90   30 30 30 20 10 20
POE   66/84  68/87  68/90  30 30 30 20 10 20
ARA  74/85  72/88  68/90  40 30 30 20 10 20

Tonight...Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. Low 68. North wind 10 mph.

Friday...Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of rain. High 85. NE wind 10-15 mph.

Friday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. Low 69. Light NE wind.

Saturday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 88. East wind 5-10 mph.

Saturday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 70. Light East wind.

Sunday...Mostly Sunny. High 90. NE wind 10 mph.


7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity

*Graphics for 7 Day Outlook once again Unavailable

Friday
9-25-09
Sky: Mostly Cloudy
Precip: 30%
Low: 68
High: 85
Wind: NE 10-15

Saturday
9-26-09
Sky: Partly Cloudy
Precip: 20%
Low: 69
High: 88
Wind: E 5-10

Sunday
9-27-09
Sky: Mostly Sunny
Precip: 10%
Low: 70
High: 90
Wind: NE 5-10

Monday
9-28-09
Sky: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Precip: 30%
Low: 72
High: 90
Wind: SE/NW 10-20

Tuesday
9-29-09
Sky:
Partly Cloudy
Precip: 20%
Low: 68
High: 82
Wind: NNW 10-15

Wednesday
9-30-09
Sky: Sunny
Precip: 0%
Low: 62
High: 84
Wind: NE 10

Thursday
10-1-09
Sky: Partly Cloudy in the Morning, Mostly Cloudy in the Afternoon
Precip: 20%
Low: 67
High: 86
Wind: SSE 10-15

...Marine Forecast from the NWS Lake Charles...

Tonight...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Friday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday Night...East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Saturday...East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday Night...South winds around 5 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 1 foot. Isolated showers.

Sunday...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

...Tide Data...Tidal Information Provided is for Calcasieu Pass, LA...

Friday Tides:
Low: 3:50p.m.
High: 12:42a.m.

...Lake Charles Climate Summary from NWS Lake Charles...

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Low:             73
Normal Low: 67
Record Low: 51-1975
High:             85
Normal High: 86
Record High: 87-1931

Rainfall:
Today:                          0.00"
Month to Date:              4.97"
Normal Month to Date: 4.88"
Year to Date:              46.69"
Normal Year to Date: 42.97"
Record:                         5.14"-2005 (Hurricane Rita)

Sunrise Friday: 7:03a.m.
Sunset Friday: 7:05p.m.


Good night and God bless!
-DM-