Tuesday, September 1, 2009
Today marks the 1 year anniversary of Hurricane Gustav. Gustav was the 2nd named storm of the 2008 season to affect the area. It came almost a month after Tropical Storm Edouard affected the area in early August. It would be the worst storm to strike the state since Rita in 2005. Gustav was a category 4 at peak intensity near Cuba. Gustav developed on August 25 South of the Dominican Republic, and it rapidly strengthened as it moved through the Eastern Caribbean. Its first landfall was over Haiti as a 90 mph-category 1 hurricane. Gustav weakened due to its interaction with land and some shear from the SW. It then targeted Jamaica as a tropical storm. The wind field began to expand and the size of the storm nearly doubled over the island nation.
After departing Jamaica, Gustav strengthened at a steady state once again attaining hurricane status on August 29 at 4pm. From this point on, Gustav would move towards Cuba, and would undergo a period of rapid intensification ramping up to a very dangerous category 4 storm with 150 mph sustained winds with gusts into the category 5 territory near Western Cuba. Interaction with Cuba weakened Gustav, but only slightly because it moved over a very narrow strip of land. It emerged into the SE Gulf of Mexico on the night of August 30. It was forecasted to move towards the Central Gulf Coast generally towards Louisiana, and remain a very intense hurricane with a high oceanic heating content in place across the Gulf. However, steady weakening occurred as the storm moved further away from Cuba and towards Louisiana. It is still somewhat uncertain as to why this occurred. The storm was forecasted to make landfall on Monday, September 1 as a major hurricane somewhere along the Louisiana coast.
The storm weakened from a category 4 with 140 mph winds as it emerged off of Cuba to a strong 110 mph category 2 storm at landfall. Landfall was at Cocodrie, LA around 9:30a.m. on Monday, September 1. Gustav weakened and moved further inland during the day pretty much bisecting the state on a NW heading. The storm tracked up Highway 90 to Morgan City still as a hurricane. Then, the eye of Gustav crossed I-10 near Breaux Bridge. Gustav slowly weakened during the remainder of the day, and finally became a tropical storm over Central Louisiana near Alexandria. It was still a hurricane as it passed right over Opelousas. Hurricane force winds were felt across a good portion of South Louisiana into Central Louisiana mainly in Acadiana and across the Atchafalaya Basin to Baton Rouge. Most of SW Louisiana didn't experience hurricane force winds, but tropical storm force winds were felt across all of SW Louisiana.
Damage was widespread across the hurricane force wind area, and Baton Rouge had major tree and power line damage with winds in the 90-95 mph range. As Gustav weakened across NW Louisiana overnight Monday into Tuesday September 2 heavy rains and isolated tornadoes occurred across much of the state. The heavy rain and tornado threat continued for a few days after the storm. One of the isolated tornadoes, and the strongest tornado associated with Gustav struck Mamou. 2 fatalities occurred with the tornado which hit during the early morning hours of the 3rd. Heavy rainfall occurred across the entire area with heaviest amounts along and to the East of where the center tracked through Acadiana and Central Louisiana. Some rainfall totals were near 25" across Rapides, Allen, Evangeline and Avoyelles Parishes. In all, Gustav was directly responsible for 112 deaths, 7 of those were here in Louisiana. There were 41 indirect fatalities in the state from Gustav. Gustav resulted in $4.3 billion damage in the United States alone.
For more on Gustav check out a report from the National Weather Service in Lake Charles:
NWS Lake Charles Hurricane Gustav Report
Also included, is the comprehensive report from the National Hurricane Center:
NHC Hurricane Gustav Comprehensive Report
See the forecast discussion below:
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...We couldn't have asked for a much better start to the month of September and to the start of meteorological autumn. We're still about 3 weeks away from astronomical autumn. Very pleasant temperatures were in place across the area today with low humidity in the 30-40% range this afternoon. Afternoon highs were below the 90 degree threshold after morning lows in the quite comfortable range of the mid 60s. The high clouds that were present last evening, pushed to the SE overnight and temperatures were able to make it to the mid 60s. The high clouds filtered the sunshine from time to time today, but other than the present cirrus canopy it was a great day for the 1st of September. It only gets better tonight as clear skies and light winds are in place with Canadian high pressure dominating the weather across the forecast area. While likely not breaking any record lows, it will be very cool for this time of year with most locations cooler than 65 by morning. The coldest readings will be found in the usual cool spots across Northern portions of the forecast area with lows in the upper 50s. Lower 60s look like a good bet here along the I-10 corridor while the coastline will be slightly warmer in the mid 60s.
Another Splendid September Day is in store for Wednesday as the dry air and low humidity continues. High temperatures should once again remain below normal with most readings topping out in the upper 80s. Some more high cloudiness can't be ruled out across the area especially with Hurricane Jemina making landfall over Baja California. The high clouds in advance in Jimena will move from W to E across Texas and into our area due to the fast winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere. This will be the only fly in the ointment once again, with no mention of rainfall. Another cool night is in store with Thursday morning lows in the mid 60s again.
Thursday will be a day of transition. The overall flow in the upper levels will remain out of the NW. The controlling high pressure will slowly slide East of the Mississippi River, and the remnants of the cold front over the Gulf will drift back to the North. Initially, only a subtle increase of low-level moisture is expected. Mid and low-level cloudiness will increase later in the day as a result of this. An approaching disturbance embedded in the NW flow aloft will move through the ARK-LA-TEX region, but it will still be too dry to introduce rain chances on Thursday, but this will aid in cloud development. Temperatures will only undergo a modest moderation during the afternoon as they aren't that far off normal at this time. They will slowly return to normal levels through the forecast period. A more noticeable moderation in temperatures is expected with morning lows once the low-level flow turns back off the Gulf.
For Friday through Labor Day weekend, the status quo for early September is anticipated. Rain chances return to the forecast on Friday as deeper low level moisture becomes dominant across the area. The refreshing mornings will be a memory by the weekend with lows warming back into the lower 70s. Upper 60s look like a good call for Friday morning, as somewhat drier air hangs on for one more morning. More disturbances rotating through the NWly flow will affect the region, and this will aid in shower and thunderstorm development during peak heating hours beginning Friday with better chances on Saturday and Sunday. For Labor Day itself, a typical late summer day is expected with normal temperatures as well. The rain chances for the weekend don't appear to be too robust at this point, with just a normal to slightly above normal chance expected. Hot and humid weather rounds out this forecast period on Tuesday.
Tropics: The suspect area (Invest 94L) I have been discussing the last few days was investigated this afternoon by the Hurricane Hunters. They found that the area situated near the Northern Lesser Antilles had a closed yet broad low-level circulation. The system was upgraded to Tropical Storm Erika at 4p.m. this afternoon. It had 50 mph winds on the initial advisory at 4p.m. (21Z). It has continued to get better organized, and is in a strengthening state tonight. The winds were raised a bit on the 10p.m. advisory. As far as the future for this season's 5th named storm, that is a bit cloudy at this time. Erika currently sits in an environment that favors slow development, and this should be the case for the next 24-36 hours. After that, all indications are that Erika will be moving into a high shear environment in the vicinity of the Bahamas. Strong upper level winds in that area, may result in weakening at the end of the week. The current 5 day intensity forecast keeps Erika below hurricane strength, but it isn't out of the realm of possibility that Erika could obtain hurricane status over the next couple of days before the forecasted weakening trend ensues Friday. Erika is currently moving very little, but it should begin to move steadily off to the WNW on Wednesday. There is some uncertainty as far as the future track with Erika as well. Models are diverging at this time. Some of the models fizzle Erika out completely near Cuba this weekend, while a few of them upgrade her into a formidable hurricane over the weekend. Some models bring her on a more Westerly course through the Southern Caribbean while some turn her more to the NW and lead to a track that would ultimately parallel the U.S. East coast as Bill and Danny did. It is too early to make a call or whether or not this reaches the Gulf, but this doesn't appear likely at this point.
Here is the 10p.m. advisory on Tropical Storm Erika from the National Hurricane Center:
Tropical Storm Erika 10p.m. Tuesday, September 1, 2009
Latitude: 17.5N
Longitude: 57.6W
This is about 365 miles East of the Northern Leeward Islands.
Winds: 60 mph with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is expected over the next couple of days. Tropical Storm force winds extend outward to 120 miles from the center.
Motion: Nearly Stationary at this time. However, a WNW motion between 5-10 mph is expected on Wednesday. On the current forecast track, Erika should pass to the NE of the Leeward Islands on Thursday.
Pressure: 29.65" or 1004 mb.
Forecast Track for Erika
Satellite Image
Model Data
Elsewhere in the tropics...A tropical wave and associated low pressure has just emerged off the coast of Africa is currently situated over the Cape Verde Islands. The system currently shows some sign of organization. Further maturation of this system is possible over the next few days as it moves generally in a W to WNW direction at 10-15 mph through Thursday.
In the Eastern Pacific, powerful Hurricane Jimena is weakening as she approaches Baja California tonight. Conditions are deteriorating rapidly over Baja California. Jimena has weakened considerably over the course of the day as it approaches land and moves into some cooler waters. It was on the verge of becoming a category 5 this morning with 155 mph winds, but currently is a category 3 with 115 mph winds. Jimena will move inland over the Western coast of Baja California Wednesday morning, and parallel the coast and continue to weaken during the day. Jimena is moving on a NNW heading at this time, and this motion should continue for the next couple of days. Jimena will cross over the Baja Peninsula and weaken considerably, and slow down as well moving very little on Thursday and Friday. The remnant low will move into the Gulf of California this weekend, and moisture will stream into the Desert SW this weekend bringing some heavy rainfall. Strong winds and flooding rains along with mudslides are expected over Baja California. A dangerous storm surge and large battering waves will occur along the coast of Baja California with Jimena.
Jimena Forecast Track
That concludes the tropical update for tonight.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecasts:
LCH 62/87 64/88 67/89 0 0 0 0 0 20
LFT 61/87 63/89 66/89 0 0 0 0 0 20
BPT 64/88 66/90 68/90 0 0 0 0 0 20
AEX 58/86 60/88 63/91 0 0 0 0 0 30
POE 59/86 61/89 64/90 0 0 0 0 0 30
ARA 63/88 65/88 68/89 0 0 0 0 0 20
Tonight...Clear and Cool. Low 62. Light North wind.
Wednesday...Sunny. High 87. NE 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 64. Light NE wind.
Thursday...Mostly Sunny. High 88. East wind 10 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear. Low 67. Light SE wind.
Friday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 89. SE wind 10-15 mph.
7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Wednesday
9-2-09
Sunny
62/87/0
Wind: NE 5-10
H.I.: N/A
U.V.: 11- Very High
Thursday
9-3-09
Sunny
64/88/0
Wind: E 10-15
H.I.: N/A
U.V.: 11- Very High
Friday
9-4-09
Partly Cloudy w/a Slight Chance of a Shower or T-Storm
67/89/20
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 87-92
U.V.: 11- Very High
Saturday
9-5-09
Partly to Mostly Cloudy w/ a Chance of Showers & T-Storms A Little More Likely
69/88/40
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 90-95
U.V.: 10- High
Sunday
9-6-09
Partly Cloudy w/ a Chance...A Typical Late Summer Day
70/88/30
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.:93-98
U.V.: 10- High
Monday
9-7-09
Labor Day
Partly Cloudy...Will it Rain on the BBQ?
72/91/30
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 11- Very High
Tuesday
9-8-09
Partly Cloudy w/ a Slight Chance of a Shower or T-Storm
73/93/20
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 11- Very High
…Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Northeast winds 10-15 knots. Seas 1-2 feet.
Wednesday...Northeast winds 5-15 knots. Seas 1-2 feet.
Wednesday Night...Northeast winds 5-10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Thursday...NE/Ewinds around 5 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Thursday Night...Southeast winds 5-10 knots. Seas 1 foot. Isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Friday...Southeast winds 5-10 knots. Seas 1-2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday Tides:
Low: 9:37a.m. 9:28p.m.
High: 4:09a.m. 12:59p.m.
…Climate Data for Tuesday, September 1, 2009...
Low: 67 Normal Low: 72 Record Low: 63-1911
High: 87 Normal High: 90 Record High: 100-1909
Precipitation:
Rain Today: 0.00”
Month to Date: 0.00” Normal Month to Date: 0.19”
Year to Date: 41.72” Normal Year to Date: 38.28”
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:50a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 7:34p.m.
Good night and God bless!!! -DM-
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
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