Thursday, July 29, 2010

Hottest Weather of the Summer on the Way...


Thursday, July 29, 2010

This is my last blog for about a week and a half. I am heading off on vacation tomorrow, and don't plan on blogging while away. However, should something develop in the tropics and pose a threat to the Gulf, then I will be blogging as often as possible. Not totally sure if how much internet connection I'll have, but I'll do what I can. I promise you I am fully committed to providing you with the latest and most accurate information for anything weather wise. We are heading into prime time hurricane season as we turn the calendar to August this weekend, and it is essential to provide you with the information you need, and I will do that no matter where I am. So, if the tropics behave, the next time you will see something new here after this entry will be the week of August 9. Be on your best behavior while I'm gone, and I'll try to bring back some cooler weather. God bless! The forecast package follows!


SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The drying trend has begun, and the heat wave will ensue Friday. High pressure at the surface and in the upper levels will be the dominant weather feature for the foreseeable future. As expected with the drier air infiltrating the forecast area, rainfall has been at a minimum today with just a few late afternoon/evening showers very widely scattered in nature. High temperatures today were mild compared to what we will experience in the next few days. After morning lows in the mid 70s, afternoon highs reached the mid 90s. This is most definitely a harbinger of things to come. Any renegade showers or storms that developed will quickly wither away as the sun sinks down below the horizon. The overnight period will be quiet with Clear skies and temperatures cooling off only into the mid to upper 70s once again. A light and variable wind is expected for the overnight hours as the surface high is essentially parked right over the area.

You will want to find a nice cooling source, be it a pool or A/C on Friday and beyond for that matter! Not that it hasn't been hot since May, but this will be bordering on ridiculously hot now for the next several days as the high pressure at the surface and aloft strengthens its grip on the area. The strong high pressure will increase subsidence across the area, and prohibit much if any vertical growth of the standard afternoon cumulus clouds. Therefore, rain chances will decrease even further and virtually be zero beginning Friday. I couldn't rule out an isolated storm or two late in the afternoon or evening as was the case today, but the chances are so minuscule that it is not mentioned in the official forecast. If by chance a natural air conditioner occurs at your particular location consider yourself a lucky dog. High temperatures will continue to warm with readings in most locations reaching the upper 90s. Locations well inland such as Alexandria and the usual hottest locations between Lake Charles and Alexandria will likely eclipse the 100 degree mark. The atmosphere will dry out a little with a bit of a decrease in humidity noted during the peak heating hours. This will mainly be because of a higher temperature/dew point spread, and because of the absence of a steady onshore flow. The orientation of the high pressure should allow for a weak offshore flow to become established across the area. However, the humidity will still be very high, and heat indices will be brutal. Expect Friday afternoon heat indices to range from 105-110. This is in the danger zone, and will be very close to heat advisory criteria.

The heat wave reaches its climax this weekend. Forecast highs both Saturday and Sunday will reach or exceed the 100 degree threshold even down here along the I-10 corridor. Only the coast will escape the triple digit onslaught, but not like the upper 90s are much cooler. Skies will be Mostly Sunny, and this will allow for maximum heating potential to occur thanks to very light surface winds and the high pressure right overhead. Temperatures could be as hot as the mid 100s in the hottest locations North of I-10 both Saturday and Sunday, and again virtually no chance of any relief is anticipated. These temperatures will be approaching record levels, and the record for the dates of July 31 and August 1 could certainly be met or exceeded. As I did yesterday, I will post some climatological data displaying the official forecast high temperature, and the record high for the date. Also, with the impinging heat wave it is prudent to run through heat safety tips at this time. All of this said information will succeed the forecast discussion. I believe, at this time, Sunday will be the hottest day as the large ridge of high pressure should be right over SW Louisiana. Therefore, this heat wave should peak on Sunday. The forecast high is 102 at this time, and that would certainly be a record for the date of August 1. There is some speculation as to exactly how hot it will get. Some models suggest it could a degree or two hotter than currently displayed while others show temperatures a degree or two cooler. The current 102 is a consensus of the models. The actual temperatures in excess of 100 degrees will continue to produce heat indices well into the danger category, and I expect Heat Advisories to be issued for this period. The heat index could be as high as 112 during peak heat hours on both Saturday and Sunday...yikes! The extremely hot temperatures will also result in not much cooling at all at night. Overnight lows will only be around 80 at best this weekend. Any outdoor plans you may have will be dry, but I hope they are indoors because who wants to be out in that kind of heat.

The heat wave continues into next week with only a slow reprieve in the offing. The upper level ridge will finally begin a retrograding process towards Texas, and the surface high will just meander about the Gulf Coastal Plain with very weak steering currents in place. Monday will be another day with highs right around 100, and very limited moisture to produce a late day isolated shower or two. One or two storms could occur given the fact that the upper level ridge will be shifting into Texas. This could allow for some vertical growth late in the day after the convective potential temperature has been realized. Morning lows will continue to be around a very warm 80, and coastal locations may not get much below 82 or 83. It is likely that Heat Advisory criteria will be met once again on Monday. Heat indices will continue to exceed the 105 danger zone, and inch up to near 110 again. Only a very slow modification (reduction) of temperatures is expected for the remainder of the forecast period Tuesday-Thursday. Don't expect anything below 95 during the entire forecast period. Average highs will drop back to the upper 90s by Tuesday, but some locations will still see maxes exceeding 100 especially towards AEX and POE. Heat indices will still be brutal with readings exceeding 105 each day through Thursday. High temperatures will decrease a degree or two each day as the high only slowly slides Westward, but remains close enough to allow the above normal temperatures to continue. By the middle of next week, perhaps a better chance for an afternoon shower or storm will be present once again as a bit more favorable set up for some sea breeze type activity develops. The prospects of a significant rain chance, however, are off the board, and any rain at all is an iffy proposition. A brief look at the extended forecast, shows the possibility of the ridge shifting and re-building strong over the area once again heading towards the first full weekend of August. In short, the period of above normal temperatures and oppressive heat looks to continue for the foreseeable future. Stay cool!

Here is the climate information I mentioned up above.

The first number is my official forecast high for each date, followed by the record high. Then, underneath the climate set I will display the last occurrence of 100 degree weather and the all-time record high for the Lake Charles reporting site.

Friday July 30-  Forecast High- 98   Record High- 99- 1948

Saturday July 31-   Forecast High- 100    Record High- 100- 1948

Sunday August 1-  Forecast High- 102  Record High- 99- 1998

Monday August 2-  Forecast High- 100   Record High- 101- 1998

Tuesday August 3- Forecast High- 98    Record High- 100- 1899

The last time a temperature of 100 or greater was recorded at Lake Charles was on June 25, 2009 when the mercury reached a stifling 102. It was a record for the date.

The all-time record high at Lake Charles is 107, and this occurred nearly 10 years ago on August 31, 2000.


Now, some heat safety tips:

Wear light-colored clothing. Dark colored clothing attracts heat, light colored clothing reflects it. The light colored clothing will keep you cooler.

Drink plenty of non-alcoholic beverages particularly water to keep yourself hydrated.

When working or playing outside, take frequent breaks and go into an A/C home or building to allow your body time to cool off.

Do not lock pets or kids in your car. The temperature in vehicles can be 20-30 degrees hotter than the actual temperature.

Protect yourself from the sun. Use sunscreen or sun block if you plan on being outside for a lengthy period whether you are going to the beach, out on the lake or just going to be outside for a while.

Check on the elderly.

Make sure your pets have plenty of cold water to drink & a nice shady spot to cool off in if you keep them outside.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  75/98  78/100  80/102  0 10 0 0 0 0
LFT   76/98  79/101  80/102  0 10 0 0 0 0
BPT   76/96  78/99   81/101  0 10 0 0 0 0
AEX  74/99  75/102  77/104  0 10 0 0 0 0
POE  74/99  75/101  77/103  0 10 0 0 0 0
ARA  76/97  80/99   81/100  0 10 0 0 0 0


Tonight...Clear. Low 75. Light & Variable wind.

Friday...Mostly Sunny & Very Hot. High 98. West wind 5-10 mph. Heat index values 103-108 in the afternoon.

Friday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 78. Light West wind.

Saturday...Mostly Sunny & Very Hot. Near Record Highs. High 100. West wind 5-10 mph. Heat index values 107-112.

Saturday Night...Clear. Low Near 80. Light and Variable wind.

Sunday...Mostly Sunny & Continued Very Hot. Record Highs Possible. High 102. WNW wind 5-10 mph. Heat index values 107-112.


Friday 7/30/10 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Clear, A Calm & Quiet Warm Morning.











Temp: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: W 2

9a.m.

Weather: Mostly Sunny, Heating Up Quick











Temp: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: W 4
H.I.: 95

Noon

Weather: Mostly Sunny, A Hot Lunch.











Temp: 93
Rain: 0%
Wind: W 7
H.I.: 103

3p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy to Mostly Sunny, Triple Digit Heat in Some Areas.











Temp: 98
Rain: 10%
Wind: W 10
H.I.: 107

6p.m.

Weather: Mostly Sunny, Blazing Hot.











Temp: 95
Rain: 0%
Wind: W 6
H.I.: 106

9p.m.

Weather: Mostly Clear. Lotta Mosquitoes.











Temp: 86
Rain: 0%
Wind: SW 3
H.I.: 94


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Friday
7-30-10











Low: 75
High: 98
Rain: 10%
Wind: W 5-10
H.I.: 103-108
U.V.: 11- Very High


Saturday
7-31-10











Low: 78
High: 100
Rain: 0%
Wind: W 5-10
H.I.: 107-112
U.V.: 11- Very High


Sunday
8-1-10











Low: 80
High: 102
Rain: 0%
Wind: WNW 5-10
H.I.: 107-112
U.V.: 11- Very High


Monday
8-2-10











Low: 80
High: 100
Rain: 10%
Wind: WSW 5-10
H.I.: 106-111
U.V.: 11- Very High


Tuesday
8-3-10











Low: 80
High: 98
Rain: 10%
Wind: SW 5-10
H.I.: 105-110
U.V.: 11- Very High


Wednesday
8-4-10

Low: 78
High: 97
Rain: 20%
Wind: S 5-10
H.I.: 105-110
U.V.: 11- Very High


Thursday
8-5-10











Low: 78
High: 96
Rain: 20%
Wind: S 5-10
H.I.: 103-108
U.V.: 11- Very High


..Tropical Update...


There are two tropical waves of significance in the Atlantic Basin. One such wave is near the Lesser Antilles. This area is fairly disorganized, and there is currently no sign of a low-level center. It is possible that conditions will become more favorable in the coming days as this system moves into the Caribbean Sea for some development to occur. This will be a slow process as the system moves off to the West at about 10-15 mph through the weekend. Locally heavy rains and strong gusty winds will occur over portions of the Lesser Antilles through Friday. The National Hurricane Center gives this area about a 10% chance of development through Saturday.







 A more organized tropical wave is showing signs of better organization in the Eastern Atlantic. It is located about 650 miles SW of the Cape Verde Islands. This tropical wave appears to be in a favorable environment for continued organization. There could be some slow development over the next few days. There is the presence of a low-level circulation. This system has been dubbed Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center, and models have been initialized on this system. We will be watching it for possible development through the weekend as it continues to move slowly W or WNW. The National Hurricane Center currently gives this area about a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.



















Elsewhere in the tropics, no tropical cyclone formation is anticipated through Saturday.


...Marine Forecast...


Tonight
...West winds around 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Friday...West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Isolated showers and thunderstorms.

Friday Night...West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Saturday...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.

Saturday Night...West winds around 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.

Sunday...Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.



...Tide Data...

Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass

Low:                12:26p.m.
High:        6:10a.m.       6:24p.m.


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

   168.06'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Thursday, July 29, 2010

Low:              75
Normal Low:  74
Record Low:  67-1904
High:               94
Normal High:  92
Record High:  102-1915

Rainfall

Today:                              0.00"
Month to Date:                 6.86"
Normal Month to Date:    4.83"
Year to Date:                 22.38"
Normal Year to Date:    32.94"
Record:                           4.14"- 1933


Sensible Weather Observed Today:

None

One Year Ago (2009)

Low:     80
High:     90
Rain:     0.00"


5 Years Ago (2005)

Low:      76
High:      94
Rain:     0.01"


10 Years Ago (2000)

Low:     72
High:     92
Rain:    0.00"


Sunrise Friday:   6:30a.m.
Sunset  Friday:   8:08p.m.


...Lunar Table...

Last Quarter- Tuesday August 3

New Moon- Tuesday August 10

First Quarter- Monday August 16

Full Moon- Tuesday August 24


Have a Great Friday & God Bless! See you when I return from vacation!
-DM-

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

No More Rain Left Up in the Clouds For Now...Gonna Be Wishing For It By the Weekend...

Wednesday July 28, 2010

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...It was a wet and noisy start to the day with a strong storm moving through the Lake Charles area in the pre-dawn hours. An additional .5-1" of rain fell this morning. This on top of the rainfall received between Sunday-Tuesday. This was the tail end of all the enhanced moisture residing over the area. All of the rain pushed West into SE Texas during the day, and there has been very little in the way of re-development this afternoon and evening as drier air in the mid and upper levels takes over. This is a sign of things to come for the duration of this forecast period. More on that in just a second. Temperatures rebounded after the early morning storm and some residual cloud cover to reach near normal values with highs around 90 to the lower 90s across the landscape of the forecast area. No convection is expected for the overnight hours, and skies should be Mostly Clear with plenty of humidity and mosquitoes. Thursday morning minimums should be similar to the last several days in the mid to upper 70s for most.

The super moisture laden atmosphere is exiting stage left. It is to be replaced with perhaps an unwelcome visitor. The large summer anticyclone is already beginning to nudge in from the East, and it will only continue to build in and strengthen over the forecast area through the weekend. This ridge will become the dominant weather feature across the Gulf Coastal Plain through this forecast period. This will only aid in drying out the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere which will reduce humidity values somewhat, and certainly put the kibosh on any chance for shower and thunderstorm activity in the afternoon. A slight chance is noted for Thursday afternoon as the ridge will be stronger further to our East initially, and this may keep some glimmer of hope for an isolated storm or two across the Western 2/3 of the forecast area. Either way you slice it though, if you receive any rain from this point on consider yourself among the very lucky chosen few. Highs on Thursday will easily reach the mid 90s for most locations with areas North of I-10 conceivably reaching the upper 90s as the effects of the ridge take over. Heat indices will approach the danger category of 105. Please take proper precautions to protect yourself against the effects of heat. Not much of a cool down is expected for the Thursday Night-Friday morning period with overnight lows averaging the upper 70s at best.

The ridge does nothing but strengthen from Friday through the weekend. It will essentially be centered over Louisiana by the weekend, and the Gulf Coast will be in a virtual frying pan. The hottest temperatures so far this summer are expected this weekend. If you remember from my last writing last night, you may recall I said it seems increasingly likely that the actual temperature will reach or exceed 100 degrees even here in the Lake Area. This continues to be forecast by models today, and I now see enough conclusive evidence to reflect this in the actual forecast for the weekend. Many areas will reach 100 on Friday, but the average high should be in the upper 90s. Heat indices will range from 105-110, and certainly exceed the danger level and could meet Heat Advisory criteria across the forecast area. The high will continue to suppress vertical growth of any cumulus clouds, and even the regular cumulus clouds will be vaporized late in the day. The only glimmer of hope for some relief in the Friday-Sunday time frame would be that if by chance one or two storms can bust the cap and develop. The convective potential temperature will be in the 100-105 degree range, so it will be very hard to do, but based on the fact that it will simply just be so hot, there could be one or two. This is not reflected in the official forecast as it is too inconsequential to mention. The heat will be the big story for sure. There is still some question as to which day is going to be hotter...Saturday or Sunday, but this particular heat wave should definitely peak over the weekend. Right now, I will reflect Sunday as the hottest day with the high anchored over SW Louisiana as it continues to retrograde into Texas. Saturday's max will also be at or over 100 degrees, and this heat wave has the potential to be a nasty one with readings of 100 or better on multiple days in a row especially in Northern portions of the forecast area. Overnight lows will be hard pressed to drop below 80 because it will be so hot during the day, so don't look for much relief even at night.

The intense heat continues into the first part of the new work week with highs around 100 again on Monday. The ridge should slowly slide Westward back where it belongs as the work week progresses, and this will hopefully cool us off a few degrees. However, the ridge doesn't move far enough away, so we will still see temperatures well above normal through the end of the forecast period on Wednesday. Highs will average the upper 90s to lower 100s each day, and rain chances will continue to be at a minimum through the period. A bit better opportunity for some thermally induced storms should come about by Tuesday and Wednesday as the ridge lightly loosens its stronghold on the forecast area. This will allow for a few renegade storms during the peak heating hours in the afternoon, but overall storms will still be few and far between. Heat indices will continue to be in the danger category exceeding 105 each day. Rain chances will be no better than 20% through the entire forecast period, so thankfully we have had beneficial rains the last few days. The nearly 7" of rain we've had this month officially, will be just a blip on the radar by this weekend, as maximum evaporative potential takes shape given the extremely hot temperatures, and lack of rainfall that is expected. While it will be excruciatingly hot this weekend, the forecast temperatures will not be Earth-shattering. They will be close to record levels, but whether or not we achieve any new records remains to be seen. I have included climatological data for the dates of July 30-August 2 just as an f.y.i. Also, I will display the last occurrence of 100 degree weather here in Lake Charles, and the all-time record high just to give you a correlation to past heat waves and show you just how hot it can get around these parts. In the extended, the heat wave should slowly break next week as the high drifts further away, but it will be a slow process. I expect high temperatures to be above normal through the end of the work week, with better opportunity for some rainfall by the first full weekend in August.

The following set of climate data is for Lake Charles and is valid for the dates of Friday July 30 through Monday August 3. All information compiled comes from the National Weather Service Lake Charles.

The first number is my official forecast high for each date, followed by the record high. Then, underneath the climate set I will display the last occurrence of 100 degree weather and the all-time record high for the Lake Charles reporting site.

Friday July 30-  Forecast High- 98   Record High- 99- 1948

Saturday July 31-   Forecast High- 100    Record High- 100- 1948

Sunday August 1-  Forecast High- 101  Record High- 99- 1998

Monday August 2-  Forecast High- 99   Record High- 101- 1998


The last time a temperature of 100 or greater was recorded at Lake Charles was on June 25, 2009 when the mercury reached a stifling 102. It was a record for the date.

The all-time record high at Lake Charles is 107, and this occurred nearly 10 years ago on August 31, 2000.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  76/96  78/98  79/100  0 20 0 0 0 0
LFT   76/97  77/99  80/100  0 20 0 0 0 0
BPT   77/94  76/97  80/101  0 20 0 0 0 0
AEX  75/98  76/101  77/103  0 20 0 0 0 0
POE  75/98  76/101  78/102  0 20 0 0 0 0
ARA  77/95  78/97  81/99    0 20 0 0 0 0


Tonight...Mostly Clear. Low 76. Light South wind.

Thursday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of widely scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms. High 97. SSW wind around 10 mph. Heat index 103-108 in the afternoon.

Thursday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 78. Light SW wind.

Friday...Mostly Sunny & Very Hot. High 98. SW wind 10 mph. Heat index 105-110 in the afternoon.

Friday Night...Mostly Clear. Low Near 80. Light SW wind.

Saturday...Sunny & Very Hot. High 100. West wind 10 mph. Heat index 105-110.


Thursday 7/29/10 Daily Planner


6a.m.

Weather: Clear. A Quiet Morning











Temp: 76
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 2

9a.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy











Temp: 84
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 5
H.I.: 93

Noon

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 91
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSW 7
H.I.: 102

3p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy











Temp: 96
Rain: 20%
Wind: SW 10
H.I.: 107

6p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy











Temp: 92
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 9
H.I.: 103

9p.m.

Weather: Mostly Clear











Temp: 83
Rain: 0%
Wind: SW 3


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Thursday
7-29-10












Low: 76
High: 96
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSW 10
H.I.: 103-108
U.V.: 11- Very High


Friday
7-30-10











Low: 78
High: 98
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 10
H.I.: 105-110
U.V.: 11- Very High


Saturday
7-31-10











Low: 80
High: 100
Rain: 0%
Wind: W 10
H.I.: 105-110
U.V.: 11- Very High


Sunday
8-1-10











Low: 80
High: 101
Rain: 0%
Wind: WNW 8-13
H.I.: 105-110
U.V.: 11- Very High


Monday
8-2-10











Low: 80
High: 99
Rain: 10%
Wind: WNW 8-13
H.I.: 105-110
U.V.: 11- Very High


Tuesday
8-3-10











Low: 79
High: 98
Rain: 20%
Wind: WSW 8-13
H.I.: 105-110
U.V.: 11- Very High


Wednesday
8-4-10











Low: 78
High: 96
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSW 10-15
H.I.: 103-108
U.V.: 10- High


...Tropical Update...

The tropics continue to be quiet as we near the end of July. There is nothing imminent as far as development is concerned, and no tropical cyclone formation is forecast through Friday.


...Marine Forecast...


Tonight
...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Thursday...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Thursday Night...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Friday...West winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Friday Night...West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Saturday...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.

Saturday Night...West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 foot.

Sunday...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.


...Tide Data...

Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass

Low:      11:51a.m.     11:34p.m.
High:        6:14a.m.       5:08p.m.


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

   168.04'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Low:              71
Normal Low:  75
Record Low:  67-1917
High:               91
Normal High:  92
Record High:  100-1995

Rainfall

Today:                              0.36"
Month to Date:                 6.86"
Normal Month to Date:    4.68"
Year to Date:                 22.38"
Normal Year to Date:    32.79"
Record:                           4.21"- 1980



Sensible Weather Observed Today:

Thunderstorm
Heavy Rain
Rain
Light Rain

One Year Ago (2009)

Low:     77
High:     90
Rain:     0.00"


5 Years Ago (2005)

Low:      76
High:      97
Rain:     0.06"


10 Years Ago (2000)

Low:     72
High:     91
Rain:    0.01"


Sunrise Wednesday:   6:30a.m.
Sunset  Wednesday:   8:08p.m.


...Lunar Table...

Last Quarter- Tuesday August 3

New Moon- Tuesday August 10

First Quarter- Monday August 16

Full Moon- Tuesday August 24


Have a Great Thursday & God Bless!
-DM-

Much Drier Pattern in the Offing, but Much Hotter Too...

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...I hope you didn't get caught in the flood in Lake Charles Tuesday afternoon and evening. This is just as I mentioned in yesterday's forecast package, the fact that there would likely be some localized flooding. This certainly came to fruition across much of the Lake Charles area Tuesday as 2-4" of rain fell in the city. This was all in response to the many synoptic scale features I mentioned previously. The upper level low moving NW out of the Gulf, the usual effects of daytime heating, and the remnant moisture from the leftovers of Bonnie all worked in tandem to produce widespread shower and thunderstorm activity across the area. Heavy rain certainly wasn't limited to the Lake Charles area, but most of the notable flooding problems occurred in the Lake area. Many other locations also saw rainfall totals in excess of 1", and many locations saw rain off and on throughout the day. With this incredibly soupy atmosphere it didn't take much sunshine to destabilize the atmosphere, such that many locations saw rain on multiple occasions Tuesday. As a result of the increased convection, temperatures were held in check with highs topping out close to normal ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Much of the shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished tonight, but some scattered activity is certainly still possible for the overnight hours with plenty of residual moisture in place. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 70s once again.

Rain chances will take a downward spiral for the remainder of the work week, and for the rest of the forecast period for that matter. This all begins on Wednesday as the synoptic features that have controlled the weather for the last couple of days fade away and relinquish their grip on the area. Drier air in the mid and upper levels will begin filtering into the region from the NE as the big ridge of high pressure that has made it so hot and dry off and on throughout the summer begins to become re-established over much of the Gulf Coastal Plain once again. The drier air in the mid and upper levels will certainly be enough to decrease moisture levels, and bring rain chances back down closer to the reality of late July. However, Wednesday will essentially be a day of transition from the very moist regime we've seen to start the week to the much drier and hotter regime we have been familiarized with over the course of the last three months. So, with a transition day through into the equation, it will basically equate to a normal summer day across SW Louisiana. About an average chance for scattered afternoon showers and storms is expected basically from the usual sea breeze type activity. Expect convection to fire up at random across the area around the lunch hour, and continue to be at random through the evening hours. Brief downpours with lots of lightning and thunder will be the nature of the game. A bit better chance for showers and storms will occur over SE Texas where some deeper moisture will linger, but even there rain chances will be much lower than they have been so far this week. The lower rain chances will also translate into warmer temperatures, and highs will certainly exceed the 90 degree plateau once again. Lower 90s should suffice for Wednesday. The heat index values will be uncomfortable as well as plenty of low-level moisture will remained trapped over the area. This will generate heat indices very near or possible exceeding the danger category of 105 for an hour or two in the afternoon. All convection should cease by sunset, and quiet weather is in store for the overnight hours with lows in the 73-78 range across the forecast area heading into Thursday morning.

There isn't much to say really about the rest of the forecast period of Thursday-Tuesday. The large anticyclone will be anchored over the Gulf Coast, and continue to strengthen across the Bayou State heading into the weekend. This will suppress nearly all shower and thunderstorm activity Thursday-Tuesday. One or two storms will still be possible each day, simply because of the usual convection processes, but any storms will be few and far between without the presence of any real trigger mechanism. Slight daily fluctuations in rain chances are possible with some minor synoptic feature that may show up between Thursday and Tuesday, but there's not one particular day that stands out as having a greater chance of seeing rain at this point. Temperatures will average the mid to upper 90s for highs Thursday and Friday, with the hottest locations topping out near or just above 100 degrees. Conditions get worse for the weekend with the average highs ranging from the upper 90s to lower 100s in nearly all locations with the exception being the immediate coast. The ridge should build in even stronger into the weekend, and essentially be anchored over the forecast area. Therefore, even locations here along the I-10 corridor could officially exceed 100 for the first time all summer this weekend. I won't officially forecast 100 yet at Lake Charles, but upper 90s will certainly be reflected. Many of our forecast models suggest 100 degree heat down to the I-10 corridor...yikes! The incredibly hot temperatures will also create very dangerous apparent temperatures as heat indices easily exceed 105, and could top out near 110 at peak heating hours in the afternoon. Use extreme caution when venturing outdoors, and use extreme protection against the hot late July and early August sun. If you happen to get cooled off by Mother Nature over the course of this time frame consider yourself mighty lucky, as most of us will be left hung out to dry. (pun intended) This round of incredibly hot weather looks to hang around for much of next week, before some relief returns in the form of our usual summer afternoon shenanigans towards the latter half of next week. Hard to believe we'll be starting August this weekend! It surely will feel like the dog days of summer, indeed!


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  76/93  76/96  76/97  20 30 0 20 0 10
LFT   76/94  77/96  77/98  20 30 0 20 0 10
BPT   77/91  76/95  77/97  20 40 0 20 0 10
AEX  75/95  75/98  75/100  20 30 0 20 0 10
POE  75/95  76/98  76/100  20 30 0 20 0 10
ARA  77/94  76/95  77/96  20 30 0 20 0 10


Tonight...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 76. Light SSE wind.

Wednesday...Partly Cloudy with a 30% chance of scattered mainly afternoon showers & thunderstorms. High 93. SSE wind 10-15 mph. Heat indices 103-108.

Wednesday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 76. Light SSE wind.

Thursday...Partly Cloudy & Hot with just a 20% chance of widely scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms. High 96. South wind 10-15 mph. Heat indices 105-104-109.

Thursday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 76. Light South wind.

Friday...Mostly Sunny & Very Hot. High 97. SSW wind 10-15 mph. Heat indices 105-110.


Wednesday 7/28/10 Daily Planner

6 a.m.

Weather: Mostly Clear












Temp: 76
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 3

9a.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy, Isolated Storm Near the Coast?













Temp: 83
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 8
H.I.: 92

Noon

Weather: Partly Cloudy, Some Scattered Storms











Temp: 88
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 13
H.I.: 98

3p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy, Storms Somewhere in the Vicinity











Temp: 93
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 15
H.I.: 105

6p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy, Any Storms Winding Down











Temp: 89
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 11
H.I.: 100

9p.m.

Weather: Mostly Clear











Temp: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 5


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Wednesday
7-28-10

Low: 76
High: 93
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 103-108
U.V.: 10- High


Thursday
7-29-10

Low: 76
High: 96
Rain: 20%
Wind: S 10-15
H.I.: 104-109
U.V.: 11- Very High


Friday
7-30-10












Low: 76
High: 97
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSW 10-15
H.I.: 105-110
U.V.: 11- Very High


Saturday
7-31-10





Low: 75
High: 99
Rain: 10%
Wind: SW 5-10
H.I.: 105-110
U.V.: 11- Very High


Sunday
8-1-10

Low: 77
High: 99
Rain: 10%
Wind: SW 5-10
H.I.: 105-110
U.V.: 11- Very High


Monday
8-2-10
Low: 76
High: 98
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSW 5-10
H.I.: 103-108
U.V.: 11- Very High


Tuesday
8-3-10
Low: 76
High: 97
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSW 10-15
H.I.: 103-108
U.V.: 11- Very High


...Tropical Update...

Good news! The tropics remain quiet. There are a few tropical waves present as always, but nothing of consequence. No tropical cyclone formation is anticipated through Thursday.


...Marine Forecast...


Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Thursday...West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Thursday Night...West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Friday...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Friday Night...West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Saturday...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.


...Tide Data...

Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass

Low:      11:23a.m.     11:04p.m.
High:        6:12a.m.       4:07p.m.


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    168..02'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Low:              76
Normal Low:  75
Record Low:  64-1911
High:              89
Normal High:  91
Record High:  99-1930

Rainfall

Today:                              0.87"*
Month to Date:                 5.40"
Normal Month to Date:    4.53"
Year to Date:                 20.92"
Normal Year to Date:    32.64"
Record:                           3.42"- 1943

*- Still Raining at Time Climate Summary Was Issued by the National Weather Service


Sensible Weather Observed Today:

Thunderstorm
Heavy Rain
Rain
Light Rain
Haze


One Year Ago (2009)

Low:     73
High:     89
Rain:     1.20"


5 Years Ago (2005)

Low:      76
High:      95
Rain:     0.00"


10 Years Ago (2000)

Low:     72
High:     91
Rain:    0.00"


Sunrise Wednesday:   6:29a.m.
Sunset  Wednesday:   8:09p.m.


...Lunar Table...

Last Quarter- Tuesday August 3

New Moon- Tuesday August 10

First Quarter- Monday August 16

Full Moon- Tuesday August 24


Have a Great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Rain & Storms Likely Again Tuesday...Raindrops Hard to Find by Week's End...

Monday, July 26, 2010

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Lots of moisture around tonight! The atmosphere is getting wrung out like a sponge. There are a number of factors that are leading to the enhanced rainfall over the area. Shower and thunderstorm activity was numerous today, and the chances for rain were in the likely category. This pattern will remain with us for another day or two, and then we'll transition to much drier for the second half of the week. Due to the numerous convective activity today, temperatures were at or just below normal across much of the area.

If you think back to last week, the original forecast for today (Monday) was for tropical storm conditions as then Bonnie was forecast to move into Louisiana and over the forecast area. However, the poorly organized tropical system weakened into an open wave off of the SE Louisiana Coast Saturday. The remnant low moved inland between Grand Isle and Buras late Saturday Night. The low then drifted to WNW and then W basically paralleling I-10 through Sunday. It has since completely dissipated, but not before passing over the area and opening up the Gulf to send copious amounts of tropical moisture over the area. This combined with a large upper level low, which helped steer and weaken Bonnie, is situated over Central Texas. The flow around this ULL is also allowing for deep tropical moisture to be pumped into the region. These synoptic scale features combined with the usual effects of daytime heating to produce scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm activity across the forecast area. Many locations in this situation have seen rain multiple times over the course of the day. There's just so much moisture to get wrung out. Even a little bit of sunshine after it rains, is all it takes for the atmospheric conditions to support additional shower and thunderstorm activity. The trend continues tonight with some ongoing scattered showers & thunderstorms across the area. There are other minor disturbances that are embedded in the deep Gulf flow over the area. Typically, on a normal summer day, all convection wanes by sunset or shortly thereafter. However, in this situation rain chances will continue for the overnight hours as well. Granted, they will certainly be less than what they were during the day. Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies will prevail away from where its raining. The showers and storms will just come and go, bringing brief heavy downpours, and lots of lightning. Rainfall totals have varied across the area with someone receiving nothing, to some locations receiving a real toad-strangler, over 2". Occasional shower and storm activity will be in the offing tonight with a very humid and tropical air mass in place. Low temperatures will hover in the mid to upper 70s, very similar to previous nights. Rain chances around 30-40% seem feasible given the rich, tropical atmosphere.

High rain chances will continue for Tuesday as the tropically laden atmosphere continues to engulf the area.The same synoptic features from Monday will essentially be in place on Tuesday. The aforementioned upper level low will remain in place over Texas, and another upper level low (non-tropical) will traverse the Gulf of Mexico waters from East to West, and move in our general direction. The flow along the Gulf coast should steer this feature towards our area. Activity will be most prominent during the peak heating hours of the afternoon, but rainfall will certainly not be limited to the afternoon hours. Showers and storms will likely abate over land for the most part for the early morning hours, but additional convection will fire up over the coastal waters in the overnight and early morning hours as the additional synoptic feature approaches. Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies should greet most as we start the day Tuesday, but there will likely be a few nocturnals or "early-risers' out there. The offshore convection will expand in coverage, and move inland as the morning progresses, becoming numerous by afternoon. Rainfall will be heavy at times, and this poses the possibility of some localized urban flooding. We are still in drought conditions across much of the forecast area, but often times when it comes down this time of year, especially in a high atmospheric moisture content situation, it comes down too fast and too furious. So, even though we are technically in drought conditions, the heavy rainfall threat is prime for some of the usual urban flooding. Some locations will once again stand to receive over 1" of rain, with a few receiving about 2". It just depends on who receives a direct hit, and who just gets sideswiped. Again, it will be another day where it might rain more than once at any given location. The extra cloud cover and enhanced rain chances will keep temperatures in check. Highs should only reach around normal levels or slightly less with upper 80s to around 90 a good call. The deep onshore flow will continue with SE winds in the 10-15 mph range. Gusty winds over 30 mph will be possible in storms. Activity will simmer down as the sun goes down, but again I still can't rule out some nocturnal activity heading into Wednesday morning.

The established synoptic scale features will begin to break down on Wednesday, but it will still be a very moisture laden atmosphere. Daytime heating will combine with the continued deep Southerly flow and the departing secondary upper level low to produce another decent chance of showers and thunderstorms, although coverage will be a bit less. The strong ridge of high pressure that has visited us from time to time this summer will begin to strengthen and build towards the area once again. This will start to usher in some drier air in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere. A set up similar to Tuesday should occur in that convective will build up over the coastal waters in the morning, and head inland and expand in coverage for the afternoon hours. With the drier air beginning to punch in from the NE, the convection should be more scattered in nature as opposed to numerous. Temperatures will be around normal to perhaps slightly above given the fact that there should be a little more sunshine than the previous days. All convection wanes by sunset, and with the drier air taking over nocturnal convection should be absent for the Wednesday night-Thursday morning period. Overnight lows will continue to be in the mid to upper 70s...sounds like deja vu to me.

The remainder of the forecast period will be much less active. The bid ridge of high pressure becomes the dominate weather feature by Thursday, and the chances of any thermally induced thunderstorms will be nearly scant to none. Surely, there could be a few that bust through the cap, and cool off a few select people, but as a general rule a much drier regime is in store. Temperatures will respond as well with readings topping out in the mid 90s...you guessed it back to above the norm for late July. Heat indices will also make like Emeril and kick it up a notch, reaching very close to the danger level of 105. The ridge only intensifies for Friday and the weekend, and should be oriented from NE to SW across the area, and will likely be centered somewhere in SE Louisiana or Western Mississippi by Thursday before drifting further West by Friday into the weekend. This will help to dry out the atmosphere even further, and there will be virtually no chance of any relief for the Friday-Monday period. Temperatures will be very hot, and certainly above normal for late July and early August. Some of the hottest, perhaps the hottest weather we've seen all summer is on tap. Many locations will exceed 100 degrees beginning Friday, and lasting through the rest of the forecast period. Upper 90s should be the average for high temperatures this weekend, and while it is not currently reflected it is certainly feasible that temperatures could exceed the 100 degree mark even here in Lake Charles at some point between Friday and Monday. Heat indices will soar into the 105-110 range, this is bordering on Heat Advisory criteria. Hard to believe we'll be into August this weekend, and it'll certainly feel like it. This pattern is good for one thing...blocking any tropical systems from coming our way. Looking into the extended, the first week of August will continue to be very hot and dry, with some signs of the ridge breaking down over the area once again towards the latter half of the first full week of August. August begins the period known as prime time hurricane season, so we'll have to wait and see what is in store in the tropics.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  76/89  76/92  75/95  40 70 30 60 10 20
LFT   76/90  76/92  75/95  40 70 30 60 10 20
BPT   77/88  76/91  75/94  40 70 30 60 10 20
AEX  75/90  74/94  73/98  40 70 30 60 10 20
POE  75/90  74/94  74/98  40 70 30 60 10 20
ARA  77/88  77/91  76/94  40 70 30 60 10 20


Tonight...Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low 76. SSE wind 5-10 mph.

Tuesday...Mostly Cloudy with showers & thunderstorms likely. Most numerous in the afternoon. Heavy rainfall at times. High 89. SSE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 70%.

Tuesday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms mainly before midnight. Low 76. SSE wind 5-10 mph.

Wednesday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with showers & thunderstorms likely once again. Some heavy rainfall possible. High 92. SSE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

Wednesday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 75. Light South Wind.

Thursday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms. High 94. South wind 10-15 mph.


Tuesday 7/27/10 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Mostly Cloudy, Some Storms Near the Coast











Temp: 76
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 6

9a.m.

Weather: Mostly Cloudy, Showers & Storms Spreading Inland











Temp: 80
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 8
H.I.: 88

Noon

Weather: Mostly Cloudy, Numerous Showers & Storms











Temp: 85
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 12
H.I.: 95

3p.m.

Weather: Showers & T-Storms Likely












Temp: 89
Rain: 70%
Wind: SSE 15
H.I.: 98

6p.m.

Weather: Mostly Cloudy, Scattered to Numerous Storms











Temp: 85
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 12
H.I.: 96

9p.m.

Weather: Mostly Cloudy, A Few Leftover Storms Possible












Temp: 82
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 4


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Tuesday
7-27-10











Low: 76
High: 89
Rain: 70%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 93-98
U.V.: 8- High


Wednesday
7-28-10












Low: 76
High: 92
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 97-102
U.V.: 9- High


Thursday
7-29-10











Low: 75
High: 95
Rain: 20%
Wind: S 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 10- High


Friday
7-30-10











Low: 75
High: 98
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSW 10-15
H.I.: 103-108
U.V.: 11- Very High


Saturday
7-31-10











Low: 76
High: 99
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 10-15
H.I.: 105-110
U.V.: 11- Very High


Sunday
8-1-10











Low: 76
High: 99
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 10-15
H.I.: 105-110
U.V.: 11- Very High


Monday
8-2-10











Low: 75
High: 98
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 10-15
H.I.: 105-110
U.V.: 11- Very High


...Tropical Update...

The tropics are quiet at this time. No tropical cyclone formation is expected through Wednesday.


...Marine Forecast...




Rest Of Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday...South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Tuesday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday...South winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet.


...Tide Data...

Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass

Low:      11:00a.m.     10:32p.m.
High:        6:06a.m.       3:13p.m.


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...


    168..00'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...





Monday, July 26, 2010

Low:              77
Normal Low:  75
Record Low:  64-1915
High:              91
Normal High:  91
Record High:  101-1912

Rainfall

Today:                              1.08"
Month to Date:                 4.51"
Normal Month to Date:    4.38"
Year to Date:                 20.03"
Normal Year to Date:    32.49"
Record:                           5.18"-2006


Sensible Weather Observed Today:

Thunderstorm
Heavy Rain
Rain
Light Rain


One Year Ago (2009)

Low:     71
High:     91
Rain:     0.35"


5 Years Ago (2005)

Low:      77
High:      93
Rain:     0.00"


10 Years Ago (2000)

Low:     70
High:     93
Rain:    0.00"


Sunrise Tuesday:   6:29a.m.
Sunset  Tuesday:   8:10p.m.


...Lunar Table...

Full Moon- Tonight July 26

Last Quarter- Tuesday August 3

New Moon- Tuesday August 10

First Quarter- Monday August 16


Have a Great Tuesday & God Bless!
-DM-