SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...I hope you didn't get caught in the flood in Lake Charles Tuesday afternoon and evening. This is just as I mentioned in yesterday's forecast package, the fact that there would likely be some localized flooding. This certainly came to fruition across much of the Lake Charles area Tuesday as 2-4" of rain fell in the city. This was all in response to the many synoptic scale features I mentioned previously. The upper level low moving NW out of the Gulf, the usual effects of daytime heating, and the remnant moisture from the leftovers of Bonnie all worked in tandem to produce widespread shower and thunderstorm activity across the area. Heavy rain certainly wasn't limited to the Lake Charles area, but most of the notable flooding problems occurred in the Lake area. Many other locations also saw rainfall totals in excess of 1", and many locations saw rain off and on throughout the day. With this incredibly soupy atmosphere it didn't take much sunshine to destabilize the atmosphere, such that many locations saw rain on multiple occasions Tuesday. As a result of the increased convection, temperatures were held in check with highs topping out close to normal ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Much of the shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished tonight, but some scattered activity is certainly still possible for the overnight hours with plenty of residual moisture in place. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 70s once again.
Rain chances will take a downward spiral for the remainder of the work week, and for the rest of the forecast period for that matter. This all begins on Wednesday as the synoptic features that have controlled the weather for the last couple of days fade away and relinquish their grip on the area. Drier air in the mid and upper levels will begin filtering into the region from the NE as the big ridge of high pressure that has made it so hot and dry off and on throughout the summer begins to become re-established over much of the Gulf Coastal Plain once again. The drier air in the mid and upper levels will certainly be enough to decrease moisture levels, and bring rain chances back down closer to the reality of late July. However, Wednesday will essentially be a day of transition from the very moist regime we've seen to start the week to the much drier and hotter regime we have been familiarized with over the course of the last three months. So, with a transition day through into the equation, it will basically equate to a normal summer day across SW Louisiana. About an average chance for scattered afternoon showers and storms is expected basically from the usual sea breeze type activity. Expect convection to fire up at random across the area around the lunch hour, and continue to be at random through the evening hours. Brief downpours with lots of lightning and thunder will be the nature of the game. A bit better chance for showers and storms will occur over SE Texas where some deeper moisture will linger, but even there rain chances will be much lower than they have been so far this week. The lower rain chances will also translate into warmer temperatures, and highs will certainly exceed the 90 degree plateau once again. Lower 90s should suffice for Wednesday. The heat index values will be uncomfortable as well as plenty of low-level moisture will remained trapped over the area. This will generate heat indices very near or possible exceeding the danger category of 105 for an hour or two in the afternoon. All convection should cease by sunset, and quiet weather is in store for the overnight hours with lows in the 73-78 range across the forecast area heading into Thursday morning.
There isn't much to say really about the rest of the forecast period of Thursday-Tuesday. The large anticyclone will be anchored over the Gulf Coast, and continue to strengthen across the Bayou State heading into the weekend. This will suppress nearly all shower and thunderstorm activity Thursday-Tuesday. One or two storms will still be possible each day, simply because of the usual convection processes, but any storms will be few and far between without the presence of any real trigger mechanism. Slight daily fluctuations in rain chances are possible with some minor synoptic feature that may show up between Thursday and Tuesday, but there's not one particular day that stands out as having a greater chance of seeing rain at this point. Temperatures will average the mid to upper 90s for highs Thursday and Friday, with the hottest locations topping out near or just above 100 degrees. Conditions get worse for the weekend with the average highs ranging from the upper 90s to lower 100s in nearly all locations with the exception being the immediate coast. The ridge should build in even stronger into the weekend, and essentially be anchored over the forecast area. Therefore, even locations here along the I-10 corridor could officially exceed 100 for the first time all summer this weekend. I won't officially forecast 100 yet at Lake Charles, but upper 90s will certainly be reflected. Many of our forecast models suggest 100 degree heat down to the I-10 corridor...yikes! The incredibly hot temperatures will also create very dangerous apparent temperatures as heat indices easily exceed 105, and could top out near 110 at peak heating hours in the afternoon. Use extreme caution when venturing outdoors, and use extreme protection against the hot late July and early August sun. If you happen to get cooled off by Mother Nature over the course of this time frame consider yourself mighty lucky, as most of us will be left hung out to dry. (pun intended) This round of incredibly hot weather looks to hang around for much of next week, before some relief returns in the form of our usual summer afternoon shenanigans towards the latter half of next week. Hard to believe we'll be starting August this weekend! It surely will feel like the dog days of summer, indeed!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 76/93 76/96 76/97 20 30 0 20 0 10
LFT 76/94 77/96 77/98 20 30 0 20 0 10
AEX 75/95 75/98 75/100 20 30 0 20 0 10
POE 75/95 76/98 76/100 20 30 0 20 0 10
ARA 77/94 76/95 77/96 20 30 0 20 0 10
Tonight...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 76. Light SSE wind.
Wednesday...Partly Cloudy with a 30% chance of scattered mainly afternoon showers & thunderstorms. High 93. SSE wind 10-15 mph. Heat indices 103-108.
Wednesday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 76. Light SSE wind.
Thursday...Partly Cloudy & Hot with just a 20% chance of widely scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms. High 96. South wind 10-15 mph. Heat indices 105-104-109.
Thursday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 76. Light South wind.
Friday...Mostly Sunny & Very Hot. High 97. SSW wind 10-15 mph. Heat indices 105-110.
Wednesday 7/28/10 Daily Planner
6 a.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 76
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 3
9a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy, Isolated Storm Near the Coast?
 |
Temp: 83
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 8
H.I.: 92
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy, Some Scattered Storms
Temp: 88
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 13
H.I.: 98
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy, Storms Somewhere in the Vicinity
Temp: 93
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 15
H.I.: 105
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy, Any Storms Winding Down
Temp: 89
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 11
H.I.: 100
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 5
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
7-28-10
Low: 76
High: 93
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 103-108
U.V.: 10- High
Thursday
7-29-10
High: 96
Rain: 20%
Wind: S 10-15
H.I.: 104-109
U.V.: 11- Very High
Friday
7-30-10
Low: 76
High: 97
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSW 10-15
H.I.: 105-110
U.V.: 11- Very High
Saturday
7-31-10
Low: 75
High: 99
Rain: 10%
Wind: SW 5-10
H.I.: 105-110
U.V.: 11- Very High
Sunday
8-1-10
High: 99
Rain: 10%
Wind: SW 5-10
H.I.: 105-110
U.V.: 11- Very High
Sunday
8-1-10
Low: 77
High: 99
Rain: 10%
Wind: SW 5-10
H.I.: 105-110
U.V.: 11- Very High
Monday
8-2-10
Low: 76
High: 98
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSW 5-10
H.I.: 103-108
U.V.: 11- Very High
Tuesday
8-3-10
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSW 5-10
H.I.: 103-108
U.V.: 11- Very High
Tuesday
8-3-10
Low: 76
High: 97
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSW 10-15
H.I.: 103-108
U.V.: 11- Very High
...Tropical Update...
Good news! The tropics remain quiet. There are a few tropical waves present as always, but nothing of consequence. No tropical cyclone formation is anticipated through Thursday.
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
High: 97
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSW 10-15
H.I.: 103-108
U.V.: 11- Very High
...Tropical Update...
Good news! The tropics remain quiet. There are a few tropical waves present as always, but nothing of consequence. No tropical cyclone formation is anticipated through Thursday.
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday...West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday Night...West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday Night...West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 11:23a.m. 11:04p.m.
High: 6:12a.m. 4:07p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
168..02'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
Low: 76
Normal Low: 75
Record Low: 64-1911
High: 89
Normal High: 91
Record High: 99-1930
Rainfall
Today: 0.87"*
Month to Date: 5.40"
Normal Month to Date: 4.53"
Year to Date: 20.92"
Normal Year to Date: 32.64"
Record: 3.42"- 1943
*- Still Raining at Time Climate Summary Was Issued by the National Weather Service
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
Thunderstorm
Heavy Rain
Rain
Light Rain
Haze
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 73
High: 89
Rain: 1.20"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 76
High: 95
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 72
High: 91
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:29a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 8:09p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Tuesday August 3
New Moon- Tuesday August 10
First Quarter- Monday August 16
Full Moon- Tuesday August 24
Have a Great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-
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