SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...
It's so hot and dry I could cry.
I love summer, but when it's this hot I wonder why.
I wear t-shirt and shorts, cuz it's too hot for a suit and tie.
It's so hot right now, I think even the devil would sigh.
It's best to just find a pool.
Kids, enjoy time before you go back to school.
Find someplace, anyplace to stay cool.
Any thought of it cooling off much anytime soon, is a load of bull!
Ok, so I'm not the poet laureate of Lake Charles, but I hope it at least kept you entertained. It's another day of the same song, same dance, but somehow I keep the creative juices flowing, and find new ways to tell you it's hot. Insert your favorite song about heat here. So, I guess now I should dive into some specifics of the upcoming weather, and divulge all the details of the synoptic features which will control our weather through the period.
There is some good news concerning this oppressive heat. After highs near 100 in several locations today, 98 at LCH officially, 100 on the thermometer at my house, the ridge will be shifting Westward through the weekend. After several days of next to nil rain chances, this will translate into a return of at least a chance for some afternoon relief. It will be a gradual process, as the ridge only slowly nudges Westward (retrogrades) and loosens its grip on our area. Expect today's scorching hot weather to only slowly fade into the atmosphere tonight with low temperatures only dropping to the upper 70s by Friday morning. This is not unlike what we've seen for the last several weeks. Some mornings we've not even made it below 80, if you can believe that. Clear skies and plenty of humidity will reign this Thursday night. Friday will again be another hot day, no surprise really is it? It is mid July after all. However, the good news is that the afternoon highs should be not quite as oppressive as they were Thursday. One more very hot day is in store Friday before we see some relief over the weekend. Mid to upper 90s should suffice one again. The introduction of slight rain chances will also come into play as the ridge begins to release its grip on SW Louisiana. The chance of any one location getting any relief from a scattered afternoon shower or storm is only at a minuscule 20%, but at least it's on the board. Since the high will not be as strong over the forecast area, there will be the potential for some vertical growth in the daily crop of cumulus clouds. As the sea breeze initiates during the afternoon, a few of these will reach the maturation stage, and go on to become a nice natural air conditioner. Most of us will still be left hung out to dry, (pun intended) as far as any relief is concerned. Of course, I remind you that heat indices will still likely approach or exceed the danger zone of 105 for a few hours during the afternoon, so continue to exercise extreme caution outdoors. Any convection that fires on Friday, will quickly dissipate with the loss of daytime heating, so expect clear and quiet weather for any Friday night plans you have. Overnight minimums will be very similar to previous nights in the mid to upper 70s area wide.
Going into this third weekend of July, rain chances ramp up to near to slightly above normal. The ridge continues to shift Westward, and at the same time our next synoptic scale feature comes into the equation. This feature is already evident on satellite imagery. This feature I speak of is an elongated (broad) trough of low pressure over the Eastern Gulf. It is not tropical in nature, but is certainly a focal point to enhance shower and thunderstorm activity across points to our East right now. This trough or Easterly wave as it is more commonly known in the world of meteorology is forecast to retrograde to the West across the Gulf for the next 24-48 hours, and be in our general vicinity by the weekend. This will certainly produce a daily crop of mainly scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The combination of daytime heating, and the advancement of the Easterly wave will produce this better chance for much needed relief this weekend. Before you moan and groan about rain on the weekend, lest I remind you that it will certainly not be an all day deal, and we do need the rain anyway as drought conditions continue across the Gulf Coastal Plain. Don't go canceling any weekend plans you have. The increased chance of convective activity will lead to a decrease in maximum temperatures, don't get me wrong it'll still be plenty hot, but at least highs will be back closer to normal in the low to mid 90s. Areas which see storms in the afternoon will drop off into the 70s. The forecast for Sunday will be very similar. The Easterly wave will remain over the area as the strong ridge to our West blocks it from making much more headway. Also, adding to the increased chance for afternoon storms will be an approaching cold front from the North. This front will not have a chance of making it through SW Louisiana, so don't get your hopes up. However, it may be close enough to help initiate additional storms during the afternoon hours on Sunday especially across the Northern half of the forecast area. The temperature forecast will continue to be in the lower to middle 90s. Rainfall amounts will vary of course from nothing to as much as 1" in areas that sustain a direct hit. It's a situation where if you miss it one day, your number might come up on the next one. There's no way to know exactly where it will rain, and where the most rain will fall in this situation. It's just a luck of the draw situation as you've heard me say many times. Once again, all convection will decay as we lose daytime heating.
As we head into the new work week, the Easterly wave will essentially begin to wash out. Rain chances will decrease a tad on Monday, and level off through the rest of the forecast period. The big ridge that's been dominating the weather this week, should not be a factor next week. It should remain to our West, and we will likely be under the influence of the more typical Bermuda High. On the Western flank of this high, we will be in a favorable set up for the daily sea breeze activity each day Monday-Thursday, and a general 20-30% chance of thermally induced storms is expected each day. Temperatures will remain at or just above seasonal each day with averages running in the low to mid 90s each day. Morning lows will continue to generally run in the mid to upper 70s. There are some minor synoptic scale features that could influence the daily chance of showers and thunderstorms in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, but at this time these seem to insignificant to really have an impact locally. There is some hint from the models about a tropical wave advancing through the Southern Gulf at mid week, and if so this could enhance rain chances a bit, but nothing organized is expected. Beyond this time, the strong ridge may try to build back in heading towards next weekend, but we'll see. It has been one of those summers where we have two definitive patterns, so it's likely just a matter of time before we see another heat wave around these parts.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 77/97 77/94 76/93 0 20 0 30 0 40
LFT 77/95 77/93 77/92 0 30 0 40 0 40
BPT 78/98 77/95 77/93 0 20 0 30 0 40
AEX 75/99 75/96 76/95 0 20 0 30 0 40
POE 75/99 75/96 76/94 0 20 0 30 0 40
ARA 78/95 77/92 77/91 0 30 0 40 0 40
Tonight...Clear. Low 77. Light South wind.
Friday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms. Continued Very Hot. High 97. SSW wind 5-10 mph. Heat index values 102-107 in the afternoon.
Friday Night...Clear. Low 77. Light South wind.
Saturday...Partly Cloudy with a 30% chance of scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms. High 94. SSE wind 10-15 mph. Heat index values 100-105 in the afternoon.
Saturday Night..Partly Cloudy to Mostly Clear. Low 76. Light SSE wind.
Sunday...Partly Cloudy with a 40% chance of scattered afternoon & thunderstorms. High 93. SSE wind 10-15 mph. Heat index values 100-105 in the afternoon.
Friday July 16, 2010 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear, Humid
Temp: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: South 2
9a.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny, Heating Up
Temp: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 5
H.I.: 95
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy, A Hot Lunch
Temp: 91
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSW 8
H.I.: 100
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy, Maybe a Storm or Two? Very Hot!
Temp: 97
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSW 10
H.I.: 107
6p.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 93
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSW 8
H.I.: 105
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 3
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
7-16-10
Low: 77
High: 97
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSW 5-10
H.I.: 102-107
U.V.: 11- Very High
Saturday
7-17-10
Low: 77
High: 94
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 10- High
Sunday
7-18-10
Low: 76
High: 93
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 10- High
Monday
7-19-10
Low: 77
High: 93
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 10- High
Tuesday
7-20-10
Low: 76
High: 94
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
Wednesday
7-21-10
Low: 77
High: 94
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
Thursday
7-22-10
Low: 77
High: 95
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
...Tropical Update...
The tropics continue to be relatively quiet at this point in time here in mid July. There are two areas of interest highlighted by the National Hurricane Center, however, neither one poses an imminent threat to develop. There are just a couple of systems we will keep our eyes on over the next few days. One system is in the Western Caribbean off the coast of Central America. Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity is bringing some heavy rain to that part of the world. If any further development would occur, it would be very slow due to the very disorganized nature of the thunderstorms, and its close proximity to the landmasses of Central America. The NHC gives this area a 10% chance to develop through Saturday.It will be slowly moving off to the West through the weekend. Elsewhere, a tropical wave in the Far Eastern Atlantic that has shown signs over the past couple of days of getting better organized is barely hanging on tonight. In fact, it is pretty much null and void of any convection tonight. It could flare up again on Friday, but in the meantime only slow organization is expected through the weekend as this system moves to the West around 15 mph. The NHC also gives this area about a 10% chance of development through Saturday.
The rest of the Atlantic basin (The Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, & Caribbean Sea) is quiet at this time. No tropical cyclone formation is expected through Saturday.
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. Isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Friday...Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday Night...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday Night...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
...Tide Data...
Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 12:39a.m. 1:33p.m.
High: 7:21a.m. 8:15p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
168.32'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, July 15, 2010
Low: 76
Normal Low: 74
Record Low: 61-1967
High: 98
Normal High: 91
Record High: 103-1909
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.79"
Normal Month to Date: 2.64"
Year to Date: 16.31"
Normal Year to Date: 30.75"
Record: 4.44"-2008
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 78
High: 97
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 73
High: 84
Rain: 0.07"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 77
High: 101
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Friday: 6:22a.m.
Sunset Friday: 8:15p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Sunday July 18
Full Moon- Monday July 26
Last Quarter- Tuesday August 3
New Moon- Tuesday August 10
Have a Great Friday & God Bless!
-DM-
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