SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Alex has moved inland. He made landfall around 9p.m. CDT in NE Mexico. He will have his place in the record books. It was the first Atlantic hurricane during the month of June in 15 years...Hurricane Allison in 1995. Alex was a category 2 at landfall with 105 mph winds, and the storm was still strengthening up until landfall. Thankfully, landfall has occurred, and it occurred in sparsely populated region of NE Mexico. Alex's pressure was a very low 947 mb. This is very low for a category 2 storm. This pressure reading is more reminiscent of a high end category 3 or low end category 4 storm. It is still unofficial, but it is believed that the lowest pressure with Alex was 947 mb., and if this is the case then this would be only one mb. off the record for the month of June. Hurricane Audrey in 1957 has the dubious distinction of holding the record for the lowest pressure ever recorded by an Atlantic basin hurricane during the month of June. Audrey, which of course, devastated SW Louisiana, still holds the record for the strongest storm ever during the month of June...now onto the forecast...
The outer rain bands of Alex effected the area has expected on Wednesday. Rain was off and on, and it was heavy at times especially during the afternoon. Even though,, the center of the storm is some 500 miles or so from Lake Charles, it is a very large tropical cyclone, and its effects are far reaching. Of course, we will escape the brunt of the storm. We are seeing about the worst of our effects from Alex with the off and on rain bands and occasional squalls, and some minor coastal flooding. The storm will spin down over NE Mexico, but the plume of moisture from Alex extends well out into the Gulf, and our position in relation to the storm puts us in a spot to see a continued influx of said tropical moisture. It will take a while for the copious amounts of tropical moisture to be displaced. That being said, our weather will continue to be wet on Thursday. We have seen a break for most of the overnight hours into the early morning hours, but as the spiral rain bands continue to rotate around Alex's large circulation, more off and on rain is expected across the entire area today. The air mass is very tropical, and temperatures are reflective of that as well with readings early this morning starting out only in the upper 70s. Cloud cover will shroud the sun once again today, and this will greatly inhibit daytime heating. Highs should only reach the mid 80s at best, and that's if we get any breaks in the clouds. Rain chances were just about maxed out on Wednesday, and with nearly an identical set up in place for Thursday, I see no reason why they won't be nearly maxed out once again. While Alex is the main culprit for the enhanced rains, we also have to contend with a stalled and decaying frontal boundary in the area. This frontal boundary is situated just to the North of the forecast area, but is in close enough proximity to aid in the development of additional shower and thunderstorm activity in the rich, tropical air mass. Rainfall will continue to be heavy at times, and a threat for minor flooding exists as well. A Flash Flood Watch and a Coastal Flood Advisory remain in effect for today. Rainfall totals up to 2" are possible today, on top of what we received on Wednesday. A long fetch onshore flow will be present as well. The SE winds up to 25 mph at times will keep the very deep tropical air mass in place, and create some tidal backup along the coast. The chances for showers and thunderstorms will begin to decrease tonight as Alex decays over Northern Mexico and the Rio Grande area. However, rain will stay in the likely category as the deep, tropical air mass keeps us in an environment to see off and on rain. Overnight lows heading into Friday will be very similar with upper 70s to near 80 for most locations.
Friday-Sunday...Friday will be a day of slow improvement. We will begin the transition back to a typical summer regimen. However, as I said a moment ago, the deep tropical moisture will be slow to vacate the premises. Alex will likely still be spinning down somewhere in the vicinity of the Rio Grande. This will keep the chance for off and on tropical rains in the forecast, and they will remain in the likely category once again. Daytime heating will of course enhance the development of shower and thunderstorm activity. Look for rain chances to remain in the likely category, but it will certainly be less of a chance than that of today. The decaying front will become a non-issue by this time. A bit more sunshine is expected, and temperatures will respond accordingly. Expect high temperatures to return to near normal levels with readings in the upper 80s to lower 90s. The deep, tropical air mass in place will produce oppressive dew points, and ridiculous heat indices. The heat index values could approach the danger category of 105 even with temperatures only near 90. The weekend will see a marked improvement, but I still have to leave a decent chance for shower and thunderstorm activity. The deep tropical air mass in place combined with the usual daytime heating will produce a slightly better than average chance of shower and thunderstorm activity for both Saturday and Sunday. This will by no means be any reason for you to cancel any 4th of July plans you may have, just understand you may have to dodge the bullet as far as the scattered convective activity that is typically present in early July. The rain chances on Saturday will be a bit higher than those of Sunday, but certainly both days it will come in a more scattered nature. Temperatures near seasonable values for early July will be realized with highs in the low to mid 90s, and lows in the mid to upper 70s area wide.The overnight hours of the weekend, should be very quiet as all convective activity will cease with the loss of its source. All fireworks displays scheduled for the weekend should get off without much fanfare at all, and all plans to celebrate our nation's birthday this weekend should go on as scheduled.
Monday-Wednesday...Monday will be observed as a holiday for many because Independence Day falls on a Sunday this year. Essentially a standard summer pattern is expected to round out this forecast period. The deep tropical moisture could carry over into early next week, to support at least an average chance of shower and thunderstorm activity, but perhaps slightly higher than normal. It remains to be seen. There are often unforeseen day to day variations by the forecast models that dictate the areal coverage from one day to the next. The bottom line though is, the weather will be back to normal for the holiday weekend, and beyond. There doesn't appear to be any large scale weather systems on the horizon to have any effect on the standard summer pattern next week, therefore a forecast very much reminiscent of early July is expected. Temperatures will trend to normal, and then slightly above by the end of the forecast period once the tropical moisture content decreases a bit. Expect morning lows Monday-Wednesday to range from the mid to upper 70s while afternoon highs easily exceed 90, and likely reach close to 95 by the end of the forecast period. Looking out long range briefly, the typical July weather pattern across the forecast area looks to continue with the unforeseen daily variations controlling the chance of rain for each day. It is inevitable that there will be more tropical in the months ahead as well, but there is nothing imminent for the time being. July is typically the wettest month of the year around these parts, so hopefully it will fulfill that moniker this year, because we do still need some rain even with the beneficial rains we are receiving from Alex. Lake Charles is currently experiencing a rainfall deficit of 12.62", and its a similar story for all locations around the forecast area. Good riddance, Alex!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 78/85 78/90 77/91 60 90 60 70 40 50
LFT 78/86 78/91 77/92 60 90 60 70 40 50
BPT 79/85 78/90 78/91 70 90 60 80 50 60
AEX 76/88 76/92 75/94 40 70 40 60 30 50
POE 76/88 76/92 75/93 40 70 40 60 30 50
ARA 79/85 78/89 77/90 70 90 60 70 40 50
*Coastal Flood Advisory in efffect.*
*Flash Flood Watch in effect along and South of I-10.*
Today...Cloudy and Very Humid with occasional rain and squalls. Rain heavy at times. High 85. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 90%.
Tonight...Cloudy and Very Humid with off and on rain. Rain heavy at times. Low 78. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Friday...Mostly Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. High 90. SSE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 70%.
Friday Night...Mostly Cloudy with off and on showers and thunderstorms. Low 77. SSE wind 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
Saturday...Mostly Cloudy a good chance of showers and thunderstorms once again. High 91. SSE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 50%.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Thursday
7-1-10
Low: 78
High: 85
Rain: 90%
H.I.: 92-97
Friday
7-2-10
Low: 78
High: 90
Rain: 70%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
Saturday
7-3-10
Low: 77
Rain: 50%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 97-102
Sunday
7-4-10
Independence Day
Low: 77
High: 92
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
Monday
7-5-10
Low: 76
High: 93
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
Tuesday
7-6-10
Low: 75
High: 94
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
Wednesday
7-7-10
Low: 75
High: 92
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
...Tropical Update...
Hurricane Alex moved inland Wednesday night as a category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Alex was still strengthening at landfall, and it's a good thing he ran out of real estate, because he likely would've reached category 3 status before too long. It made landfall in a sparsely populated area of NE Mexico about 100 miles South of Brownsville. See the post below this one for the specifics just as the storm was moving inland. Alex will continue to unravel and weaken over NE Mexico today, and completely dissipate by the weekend. The outer rain bands from Alex will continue to move across our area from time to time through Friday. Elsewhere, in the tropics, all is quiet for the time being.
...Marine Forecast...
*Small Craft Advisory in effect.*
Today...East winds around 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Thunderstorms and showers.
Thursday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Friday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Have a great Thursday & God bless! Stay dry!
-DM-
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