SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...It was a wet and noisy start to the day with a strong storm moving through the Lake Charles area in the pre-dawn hours. An additional .5-1" of rain fell this morning. This on top of the rainfall received between Sunday-Tuesday. This was the tail end of all the enhanced moisture residing over the area. All of the rain pushed West into SE Texas during the day, and there has been very little in the way of re-development this afternoon and evening as drier air in the mid and upper levels takes over. This is a sign of things to come for the duration of this forecast period. More on that in just a second. Temperatures rebounded after the early morning storm and some residual cloud cover to reach near normal values with highs around 90 to the lower 90s across the landscape of the forecast area. No convection is expected for the overnight hours, and skies should be Mostly Clear with plenty of humidity and mosquitoes. Thursday morning minimums should be similar to the last several days in the mid to upper 70s for most.
The super moisture laden atmosphere is exiting stage left. It is to be replaced with perhaps an unwelcome visitor. The large summer anticyclone is already beginning to nudge in from the East, and it will only continue to build in and strengthen over the forecast area through the weekend. This ridge will become the dominant weather feature across the Gulf Coastal Plain through this forecast period. This will only aid in drying out the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere which will reduce humidity values somewhat, and certainly put the kibosh on any chance for shower and thunderstorm activity in the afternoon. A slight chance is noted for Thursday afternoon as the ridge will be stronger further to our East initially, and this may keep some glimmer of hope for an isolated storm or two across the Western 2/3 of the forecast area. Either way you slice it though, if you receive any rain from this point on consider yourself among the very lucky chosen few. Highs on Thursday will easily reach the mid 90s for most locations with areas North of I-10 conceivably reaching the upper 90s as the effects of the ridge take over. Heat indices will approach the danger category of 105. Please take proper precautions to protect yourself against the effects of heat. Not much of a cool down is expected for the Thursday Night-Friday morning period with overnight lows averaging the upper 70s at best.
The ridge does nothing but strengthen from Friday through the weekend. It will essentially be centered over Louisiana by the weekend, and the Gulf Coast will be in a virtual frying pan. The hottest temperatures so far this summer are expected this weekend. If you remember from my last writing last night, you may recall I said it seems increasingly likely that the actual temperature will reach or exceed 100 degrees even here in the Lake Area. This continues to be forecast by models today, and I now see enough conclusive evidence to reflect this in the actual forecast for the weekend. Many areas will reach 100 on Friday, but the average high should be in the upper 90s. Heat indices will range from 105-110, and certainly exceed the danger level and could meet Heat Advisory criteria across the forecast area. The high will continue to suppress vertical growth of any cumulus clouds, and even the regular cumulus clouds will be vaporized late in the day. The only glimmer of hope for some relief in the Friday-Sunday time frame would be that if by chance one or two storms can bust the cap and develop. The convective potential temperature will be in the 100-105 degree range, so it will be very hard to do, but based on the fact that it will simply just be so hot, there could be one or two. This is not reflected in the official forecast as it is too inconsequential to mention. The heat will be the big story for sure. There is still some question as to which day is going to be hotter...Saturday or Sunday, but this particular heat wave should definitely peak over the weekend. Right now, I will reflect Sunday as the hottest day with the high anchored over SW Louisiana as it continues to retrograde into Texas. Saturday's max will also be at or over 100 degrees, and this heat wave has the potential to be a nasty one with readings of 100 or better on multiple days in a row especially in Northern portions of the forecast area. Overnight lows will be hard pressed to drop below 80 because it will be so hot during the day, so don't look for much relief even at night.
The intense heat continues into the first part of the new work week with highs around 100 again on Monday. The ridge should slowly slide Westward back where it belongs as the work week progresses, and this will hopefully cool us off a few degrees. However, the ridge doesn't move far enough away, so we will still see temperatures well above normal through the end of the forecast period on Wednesday. Highs will average the upper 90s to lower 100s each day, and rain chances will continue to be at a minimum through the period. A bit better opportunity for some thermally induced storms should come about by Tuesday and Wednesday as the ridge lightly loosens its stronghold on the forecast area. This will allow for a few renegade storms during the peak heating hours in the afternoon, but overall storms will still be few and far between. Heat indices will continue to be in the danger category exceeding 105 each day. Rain chances will be no better than 20% through the entire forecast period, so thankfully we have had beneficial rains the last few days. The nearly 7" of rain we've had this month officially, will be just a blip on the radar by this weekend, as maximum evaporative potential takes shape given the extremely hot temperatures, and lack of rainfall that is expected. While it will be excruciatingly hot this weekend, the forecast temperatures will not be Earth-shattering. They will be close to record levels, but whether or not we achieve any new records remains to be seen. I have included climatological data for the dates of July 30-August 2 just as an f.y.i. Also, I will display the last occurrence of 100 degree weather here in Lake Charles, and the all-time record high just to give you a correlation to past heat waves and show you just how hot it can get around these parts. In the extended, the heat wave should slowly break next week as the high drifts further away, but it will be a slow process. I expect high temperatures to be above normal through the end of the work week, with better opportunity for some rainfall by the first full weekend in August.
The following set of climate data is for Lake Charles and is valid for the dates of Friday July 30 through Monday August 3. All information compiled comes from the National Weather Service Lake Charles.
The first number is my official forecast high for each date, followed by the record high. Then, underneath the climate set I will display the last occurrence of 100 degree weather and the all-time record high for the Lake Charles reporting site.
Friday July 30- Forecast High- 98 Record High- 99- 1948
Saturday July 31- Forecast High- 100 Record High- 100- 1948
Sunday August 1- Forecast High- 101 Record High- 99- 1998
Monday August 2- Forecast High- 99 Record High- 101- 1998
The last time a temperature of 100 or greater was recorded at Lake Charles was on June 25, 2009 when the mercury reached a stifling 102. It was a record for the date.
The all-time record high at Lake Charles is 107, and this occurred nearly 10 years ago on August 31, 2000.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 76/96 78/98 79/100 0 20 0 0 0 0
LFT 76/97 77/99 80/100 0 20 0 0 0 0
BPT 77/94 76/97 80/101 0 20 0 0 0 0
AEX 75/98 76/101 77/103 0 20 0 0 0 0
POE 75/98 76/101 78/102 0 20 0 0 0 0
ARA 77/95 78/97 81/99 0 20 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Mostly Clear. Low 76. Light South wind.
Thursday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of widely scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms. High 97. SSW wind around 10 mph. Heat index 103-108 in the afternoon.
Thursday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 78. Light SW wind.
Friday...Mostly Sunny & Very Hot. High 98. SW wind 10 mph. Heat index 105-110 in the afternoon.
Friday Night...Mostly Clear. Low Near 80. Light SW wind.
Saturday...Sunny & Very Hot. High 100. West wind 10 mph. Heat index 105-110.
Thursday 7/29/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear. A Quiet Morning
Temp: 76
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 2
9a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 84
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 5
H.I.: 93
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 91
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSW 7
H.I.: 102
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 96
Rain: 20%
Wind: SW 10
H.I.: 107
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 92
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 9
H.I.: 103
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 83
Rain: 0%
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Thursday
7-29-10
Low: 76
High: 96
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSW 10
H.I.: 103-108
U.V.: 11- Very High
Friday
7-30-10
Low: 78
High: 98
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 10
H.I.: 105-110
U.V.: 11- Very High
Saturday
7-31-10
Low: 80
High: 100
Rain: 0%
Wind: W 10
H.I.: 105-110
U.V.: 11- Very High
Sunday
8-1-10
Low: 80
High: 101
Rain: 0%
Wind: WNW 8-13
H.I.: 105-110
U.V.: 11- Very High
Monday
8-2-10
Low: 80
High: 99
Rain: 10%
Wind: WNW 8-13
H.I.: 105-110
U.V.: 11- Very High
Tuesday
8-3-10
Low: 79
High: 98
Rain: 20%
Wind: WSW 8-13
H.I.: 105-110
U.V.: 11- Very High
Wednesday
8-4-10
Low: 78
High: 96
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSW 10-15
H.I.: 103-108
U.V.: 10- High
...Tropical Update...
The tropics continue to be quiet as we near the end of July. There is nothing imminent as far as development is concerned, and no tropical cyclone formation is forecast through Friday.
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday Night...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday...West winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday Night...West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.
Saturday Night...West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Sunday...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.
...Tide Data...
Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 11:51a.m. 11:34p.m.
High: 6:14a.m. 5:08p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
168.04'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
Low: 71
Normal Low: 75
Record Low: 67-1917
High: 91
Normal High: 92
Record High: 100-1995
Rainfall
Today: 0.36"
Month to Date: 6.86"
Normal Month to Date: 4.68"
Year to Date: 22.38"
Normal Year to Date: 32.79"
Record: 4.21"- 1980
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
Thunderstorm
Heavy Rain
Rain
Light Rain
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 77
High: 90
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 76
High: 97
Rain: 0.06"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 72
High: 91
Rain: 0.01"
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:30a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 8:08p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Tuesday August 3
New Moon- Tuesday August 10
First Quarter- Monday August 16
Full Moon- Tuesday August 24
Have a Great Thursday & God Bless!
-DM-
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