I hope everyone had a great 4th of July holiday, and while enjoying your time with family and friends, I hope you took some time to reflect on the reason for this holiday. Thanks to all the brave men and women who have served, are serving, and will serve in the future. Happy Birthday America and may God always bless our beautiful nation!
The blog will remain in short form until further notice. There is plenty to discuss with the tropics heating up, so even though some sections will be omitted, the blog will be longer based on content at times. Since, the tropics are active, I will continue to insert a separate entry for the tropical update, even without a classified system. If we do get a classified system this week, then the blog will be updated more frequently with all the latest information as it was last week with Alex. See the tropical weather discussion in the post above this one, scroll down for your complete forecast.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...It has been hot as a firecracker on this day after Independence Day. If you were off today, I hope you enjoyed it. Thankfully, there has not been much in the way of shower and thunderstorm activity locally today. Temperatures were well up into the 90s as you would expect on a hot July afternoon. It's not as hot here as it is in the big cities of the Northeast Megalopolis. A major heat wave is gripping that area with temperatures exceeding 100 in New York City and down in our Nation's capital at Washington, D.C. Back closer to home, we have a lot to discuss in the short-term and long-term as well. Rain chances will be increasing for the rest of the work week, and much of it will be tropically enhanced.
Rain chances begin to increase as early as tonight (opposite of a typical summer day). The culprit is a surface low pressure system paralleling the Louisiana coast. This small system has been observed since last week as a weak surface low formed off of the coast of the Florida Panhandle along a decaying frontal boundary. This low drifted Westward all weekend, and has had a hard time getting organized and acquiring (transitioning) tropical characteristics. It has at times been completely null and void of any convection near the center, however, today, it has quickly become better organized. There has been debate all afternoon on whether or not this is a tropical system. It has been identified all weekend as Invest 95L, but reports in the nearshore waters South of Morgan City and Houma suggest enough evidence that supports the idea that this system could at least be a tropical depression, if not a very weak Tropical Storm Bonnie. It is at the jurisdiction of the National Hurricane Center to classify these tropical entities. Be that as it may, this system will still act to increase our chances for rain once again. Whether this system is just an unclassified low pressure or a tropical depression or weak tropical storm our weather conditions will essentially be the same.
Today has been dry for the majority of the forecast area, as we remain on the dry, subsident side of the entity. Its current location near the coast between Morgan City and Houma is producing an offshore flow temporarily. Some rain rotating around the small circulation is moving from ENE to WSW across the Eastern half of the forecast area. Boundary layer moisture will gradually increase overnight and especially on Tuesday as the weak low continues its WNW to NW motion. This will bring the low into SW Louisiana Tuesday. It could pass right over or very near Lake Charles. This will certainly increase rain chances in earnest. Much of the forecast area will be in the moist axis on the East side of the circulation by this time due to the WNW motion of the low. Rain chances will be less over SE Texas which will remain on the subsident side of things for another 24 hours. Rainfall chances will swell into the likely category for most on Tuesday, and all by Wednesday. Rainfall will not be limited to the peak heating hours in the afternoon in this situation. Off and on rain associated with rain bands around the low will be possible at any time beginning overnight. Clouds will gradually increase as the deeper moisture approaches, and I would expect some nocturnal tropical rains before sunrise Tuesday. Rain could be heavy at times certainly, but the heaviest rain will be clustered near the weak low-level center. Rain chances will be around 30-40% for the overnight hours, but increase further Tuesday. With the increase in moisture, overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 70s...very similar to where they have been running for weeks now. Tuesday highs will be cooler than the mid 90s readings experienced Monday. Tuesday highs should average the upper 80s, cooler in locations which receive more rain. More than half of the forecast area will see rain on Tuesday. The heaviest and most widespread rainfall should be confined to coastal areas up to near I-10 depending on the exact track of said low. Over an inch of rainfall will be possible in the areas which receive the heaviest rain, and gusty winds of 20-25 mph will be possible at times. The low will continue its slow W or WNW to NW motion throughout the day on Tuesday.
This little feature is certainly enough to talk about, but that is not all there is to discuss on this abbreviated work week. Our attention is also honed in on the current Invest 96L in the Western Caribbean in the general vicinity of the Yucatan Peninsula. I know, you're saying...Drew, wasn't there a storm that formed there about 10 days ago? Yes, this is very near where astounding Alex formed on June 25 before making landfall as a category 2 hurricane on Wednesday the 30th in Northern Mexico. The Western Caribbean is a prime spot for development early in the season, so it is not highly unusual to have another "blob" to monitor in this area. I will have more posted in the tropical section on this blog, but in short it seems likely to be our next customer in the tropical conveyor belt. However, much uncertainty remains as to what the intensity of this system will be. It is still fairly poorly organized as it approaches the Cancun area, and it will have to cross land. You know its interaction with land will inhibit development in the short-term, however, it should cross over a much smaller piece of land that Alex did when he was in that area. The system is showing signs of better organization this evening, and it should continue to move to the NW at a brisk 15-20 mph pace through Tuesday. This will bring it into the warm waters of the Southern Gulf of Mexico in about 24 hours. The environment over the Gulf is favorable for development. Most model guidance suggests some development of this system as it moves towards the NW through the Gulf the next few days. The models suggests varying degrees of intensification. It is far too early to know if this will become Bonnie or if it will just remain Invest 96L. The future track of this suspect area is still somewhat uncertain as well, without a true center of circulation, it is hard to focus on one point as a center, and this is the major problem for computer model guidance. The consensus is for this tropical moisture to move NW and head for the Texas coast. However, some models still suggest a Louisiana landfall could occur, and some suggest a Mexico landfall will occur, similar to that of Alex. Therefore, it is not important to focus on this right now. Either way, it appears that we will once again be on the moist side of this advancing tropical wave, and therefore high rain chances will remain in the forecast through the rest of the work week.
Rain chances will taper off a bit Tuesday night, but again rain will certainly still be possible during this time with the beaucoup tropical moisture in place. A very, rich tropical air mass will be in place, and along with very muggy conditions it will be very warm with temperatures struggling to fall much below the upper 70s overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. If anything, rain chances will go even higher for Wednesday and Thursday as the influx of tropical moisture (or whatever it may become by that time) traverses the Gulf Coastal plain. This influx of moisture is a lot larger in size than the current low that is controlling our weather. Therefore, even if there is an actual center of circulation or a classified tropical system over the Gulf at this time, we will already be under the influence of the deep tropical fetch. Heavy rain is likely at times on Wednesday and Thursday (does that sound like deja vu???), and it wouldn't surprise me if some locations see rainfall totals in excess of 2" on either day. The ultimate strength of what develops in the Gulf will factor into how adverse our weather turns out to be. As I said previously, it appears likely that the current Invest 96L will head for the Western Gulf most likely somewhere on the Texas coast. This will keep us in a prime location to receive continued tropical rainfall on the aforementioned days. A stronger system will also increase winds, seas, and tides in the coastal waters, and along the coast. The entire forecast can change depending on the track and intensity, so stay tuned. For now, rain chances are in the likely category and could ultimately max out during the Wednesday-Thursday time frame. Further revisions to the forecast at this time frame will be made as necessary, depending on what evolves with the suspect area. The deep tropical air mass will keep high temperatures cooler than average with readings in the mid to upper 80s, but it will be very humid. Tropical air has a higher moisture content than continental air. The forecast will essentially be the same for Friday, however some drier air may begin to infiltrate the region during the day. This, as the deep tropical moisture moves further inland, and the ridge over the SE U.S. begins to build in from the East. However, there will still be plenty of tropical moisture in place to support a continued high chance of shower and thunderstorm activity. Again, this can all change depending on the future track and intensity of the disturbed weather.
It's never too early to look ahead to the weekend, and who wouldn't want to do that when it's already a short week? As of right now, all indications are that we will transition from being influenced by the deep tropical air mass this work week to a more typical summer pattern by the weekend. This will lower the chance of shower and thunderstorm activity to near normal for early July. Also, by this time convection should essentially be confined to the afternoon hours. It'll be back to the typical thermally induced activity we are accustomed to in July. Ridging in the mid and upper levels will also allow for temperatures to return to above normal levels with mid 90s on average for highs with upper 90s in the usual hottest locations. Morning lows will remain fairly uniform in the mid to upper 70s area wide. So, as it stand right now, any weekend plans you may have should have the green light, but there is the possibility the deeper tropical moisture could linger and keep rain chances higher than they will currently be displayed. The chances of tropical moisture lingering will be greater if Invest 96L does become an organized system. All bets are off with this week's entire forecast if something more does become of this area. Heading into the first part of next week, and the end of this forecast period, the weather offers the status quo for July. There are signs that the upper level ridge will be strengthening over the area as we get into next week, and if that is the case then the temperatures will approach the upper 90s to near 100, and afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity will be on a very limited basis. For now, Monday's forecast will be very representative of the normal for July. Beyond Monday, the long range forecast will continue to look like summer should look around here, and of course all eyes will be watching the tropics.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 76/88 78/86 78/87 30 60 40 80 60 70
LFT 76/89 77/87 78/88 40 70 40 80 60 70
BPT 77/91 77/89 78/87 20 40 40 70 60 80
AEX 74/92 75/90 75/88 20 40 30 70 60 70
POE 74/92 75/90 75/88 20 40 30 70 60 70
ARA 77/87 79/87 78/87 60 70 50 80 60 70
Tonight...Clear early, Increasing Cloudiness after midnight with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 76. ENE wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday...Mostly Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. High 88. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 60%.
Tuesday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 78. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday...Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Rain heavy at times. High 86. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 80%.
Wednesday Night...Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Low 78. SSE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Thursday...Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms in the likely category once again. Rain could be heavy at times. High 87. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 80%.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Tuesday
7-6-10
High: 88
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I/: 95-100
Wednesday
7-7-10
Low: 78
High: 86
Rain: 80%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 93-98
Thursday
7-8-10
Low: 78
High: 87
Rain: 80%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 92-97
Friday
7-9-10
Low: 78
High: 89
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
Saturday
7-10-10
Low: 76
High: 92
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 97-102
Sunday
7-11-10
Low: 75
High: 95
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
Monday
7-12-10
Low: 75
High: 94
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
...Tropical Update...
See the above post for the complete tropical weather discussion. It's just over a month into the season, and the tropics are behaving like its approaching prime time. We have 2 suspect areas to focus on. A weak low off the Louisiana coast (Invest 95L) has become better organized this evening and tonight, and has gradually been in transition from a cold core to warm core system since the weekend. This system is bordering on a tropical depression as it nears landfall along the coast tonight and early Tuesday. It's a very small circulation, and shower and thunderstorm activity on the east side of this low will overspread South Louisiana through Tuesday. No significant strengthening of this low is expected before landfall.
The other area is Invest 96L over the Western Caribbean. It's approaching Cancun on the Yucatan Peninsula tonight, and will have the chance to become better organized once it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday afternoon. The influx of tropical moisture associated with this system will overspread the Northern and Central Gulf coast later this week.
Elsewhere, there are a few tropical waves that have flared up from time to time over the past couple of days. At one point on Sunday, there were 4 suspect areas. At this time, there is really nothing else to be concerned with. Again, see the above blog entry for the complete tropical weather discussion.
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night...East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 1 to 3 feet after midnight. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Good night, have a great Tuesday & God Bless!
-DM-
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