SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...After a couple of week's watching the tropics on pins and needles, we have hit a very welcomed lull. The weather has been very like a typical mid-July scenario this weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms were enhanced a bit on Saturday as a decaying frontal boundary residing just North of our vicinity. This boundary has become diffuse today, and the controlling ridge of high pressure that re-established itself late last week continues to hold firm over the Gulf South. This will be the dominating synoptic feature through the forecast period. The temperatures responded in tandem today to the increased sunshine and decreased shower and thunderstorm activity, readings reached the mid 90s with ease today. Any shower and storm activity today was confined to the heart of Acadiana. Quiet weather will prevail through the short-term overnight hours with clear skies, lots of humidity, and mosquitoes. Overnight lows will be running very close to that of previous nights with mid to upper 70s a good call area wide.
Hot and dry weather prevails Monday-Wednesday with very little hope for any afternoon relief. An isolated storm or two simply because of maximum daytime heating can't be ruled out during the afternoon each day Monday-Wednesday, but the chances are too insignificant to mention in the official forecast. High temperatures will reach above normal levels in the mid to upper 90s with the exception of the coast where low 90s will suffice due to the enhancement of the sea breeze. The run of mid to upper 70s minimums will continue as well. As you know, the main issue for us with these hot surface temperatures will be the apparent temperature (heat index). The apparent temperature values will approach and likely exceed the danger category of 105 at times. Use extreme caution when outside, and be sure to take the proper precautions against heat stroke and sunburn. Any convection that does happen to develop during peak heating hours will cease to exist by sunset, and the nighttime hours will be quiet.
The latter half of the week into the weekend could conjure up a bit better chance for some afternoon convection. Models do indicate some sign that the controlling ridge will shift a bit to the West, and at the same time a minor disturbance embedded in the flow around the persistent Bermuda high to our East will traverse the Gulf and head West. This weak perturbation will be enough of a synoptic scale feature to produce some increase in the chances for afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity in the afternoon hours. A slight chance of convection is noted for Thursday as the ridge begins to shift, but better chances envelop the forecast area by Friday into the weekend as the Easterly wave progresses Westward, and we wind up in the trailing moist axis on Saturday. This will produce the highest chances (30-40%) over the next 7 days. The ridge begins to re-build over the area by Sunday, and rain chances will respond accordingly. Expect a deduction in rain chances for the end of the forecast period. Temperatures will drop back a few degrees by Friday with the increased rain chances, but lower 90s will still be easily obtainable. It will certainly still be hot. Areas that don't see rain will likely still reach the mid 90s, but for the sake of the increased rain chances we'll say the average high will be in the lower 90s range. A return to maxes in the mid 90s for the majority of the forecast area should occur by Sunday as rain chances decrease once again. The overnight minimums will continue their persistence with mid to upper 70s area wide. A brief look at the extended, as we enter the latter half of July suggests a continuance of our usual summer pattern with the usual unforeseen day to day perturbations causing potential fluctuations in afternoon convection chances. Temperatures will remain at or slightly above the norm through the period. Of course, we're always watching the tropics, but there is nothing of consequence now, but we're heading closer and closer to prime time season now. It has been determined that a La Nina pattern is developing, and depending on how fast it settles in, down the road, we could be headed for weather that is even drier and hotter than we've experienced to date so far this summer.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LFT 77/96 78/97 77/97 0 0 0 0 0 10
BPT 77/97 77/98 78/98 0 0 0 0 0 10
AEX 75/98 75/99 75/99 0 0 0 0 0 10
POE 75/97 76/98 76/99 0 0 0 0 0 10
ARA 78/94 77/95 77/95 0 0 0 0 0 10
Tonight...Clear. Low 77. Light SSW wind.
Monday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. Hot. High 95. SSW wind 10-15 mph.
Monday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 77. Light SSW wind.
Tuesday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. Hot. High 96. SSW wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 77. Light South wind.
Wednesday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. Hot. High 96. SSW wind 10-15 mph.
Monday 7/11/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: SW 3
9a.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 84
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 8
H.I.: 91
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 90
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 12
H.I.: 101
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 95
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 15
H.I.: 105
6p.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 91
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 11
H.I.: 102
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 84
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 5
H.I.: 92
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Monday
7-12-10
Low: 77
High: 95
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
Tuesday
7-13-10
Low: 77
High: 96
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 10-15
H.I.: 102-107
U.V.: 11- Very High
Wednesday
7-14-10
Low: 77
High: 96
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSW 10-15
H.I.: 102-107
U.V.: 11- Very High
Thursday
7-15-10
Low: 78
High: 96
Rain: 20%
Wind: S 10-15
H.I.: 101-106
U.V.: 11- Very High
Friday
7-16-10
Low: 77
High: 94
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 10- High
Saturday
7-17-10
Low: 77
High: 92
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 98-103
U.V.: 10- High
Sunday
7-18-10
Low: 76
High: 94
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
...Tropics...
After the season's second tropical depression developed in the warm waters of the Gulf last week it quickly moved inland on Thursday near Brownsville, TX. It brought a second round of flooding rains to the Rio Grande Valley. Since the dissipation of T.D. 2, the tropics have been quiet, and they remain quiet as of this writing. There are a few tropical waves out there, but nothing of consequence at the moment. The strongest wave at present is emerging off the West Coast of Africa, and this one will have the potential to be our next suspect area in a few days. Other than that, the tropics are quiet for the time being, and no tropical cyclone formation is expected through Tuesday.
...Marine...
Tonight...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Monday...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Monday Night...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Tuesday...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
...Tide Data...
Monday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 10:11a.m. 10:11p.m.
High: 5:35a.m. 2:06p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
168.40'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Sunday, July 11, 2010
Low: 80
Normal Low: 74
Record Low: 65-1905
High: 94
Normal High: 91
Record High: 100-1917
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.79"
Normal Month to Date: 1.96"
Year to Date: 16.31"
Normal Year to Date: 30.07"
Record: 3.58"-1939
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 77
High: 95
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 71
High: 94
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 73
High: 92
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Monday: 6:20a.m.
Sunset Monday: 8:17p.m.
...Lunar Table...
New Moon- Tonight July 11
First Quarter- Sunday July 18
Full Moon- Monday July 26
Last Quarter- Tuesday August 3
Have a Great Monday & God Bless!
-DM-
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