Thursday, July 29, 2010
This is my last blog for about a week and a half. I am heading off on vacation tomorrow, and don't plan on blogging while away. However, should something develop in the tropics and pose a threat to the Gulf, then I will be blogging as often as possible. Not totally sure if how much internet connection I'll have, but I'll do what I can. I promise you I am fully committed to providing you with the latest and most accurate information for anything weather wise. We are heading into prime time hurricane season as we turn the calendar to August this weekend, and it is essential to provide you with the information you need, and I will do that no matter where I am. So, if the tropics behave, the next time you will see something new here after this entry will be the week of August 9. Be on your best behavior while I'm gone, and I'll try to bring back some cooler weather. God bless! The forecast package follows!
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The drying trend has begun, and the heat wave will ensue Friday. High pressure at the surface and in the upper levels will be the dominant weather feature for the foreseeable future. As expected with the drier air infiltrating the forecast area, rainfall has been at a minimum today with just a few late afternoon/evening showers very widely scattered in nature. High temperatures today were mild compared to what we will experience in the next few days. After morning lows in the mid 70s, afternoon highs reached the mid 90s. This is most definitely a harbinger of things to come. Any renegade showers or storms that developed will quickly wither away as the sun sinks down below the horizon. The overnight period will be quiet with Clear skies and temperatures cooling off only into the mid to upper 70s once again. A light and variable wind is expected for the overnight hours as the surface high is essentially parked right over the area.
You will want to find a nice cooling source, be it a pool or A/C on Friday and beyond for that matter! Not that it hasn't been hot since May, but this will be bordering on ridiculously hot now for the next several days as the high pressure at the surface and aloft strengthens its grip on the area. The strong high pressure will increase subsidence across the area, and prohibit much if any vertical growth of the standard afternoon cumulus clouds. Therefore, rain chances will decrease even further and virtually be zero beginning Friday. I couldn't rule out an isolated storm or two late in the afternoon or evening as was the case today, but the chances are so minuscule that it is not mentioned in the official forecast. If by chance a natural air conditioner occurs at your particular location consider yourself a lucky dog. High temperatures will continue to warm with readings in most locations reaching the upper 90s. Locations well inland such as Alexandria and the usual hottest locations between Lake Charles and Alexandria will likely eclipse the 100 degree mark. The atmosphere will dry out a little with a bit of a decrease in humidity noted during the peak heating hours. This will mainly be because of a higher temperature/dew point spread, and because of the absence of a steady onshore flow. The orientation of the high pressure should allow for a weak offshore flow to become established across the area. However, the humidity will still be very high, and heat indices will be brutal. Expect Friday afternoon heat indices to range from 105-110. This is in the danger zone, and will be very close to heat advisory criteria.
The heat wave reaches its climax this weekend. Forecast highs both Saturday and Sunday will reach or exceed the 100 degree threshold even down here along the I-10 corridor. Only the coast will escape the triple digit onslaught, but not like the upper 90s are much cooler. Skies will be Mostly Sunny, and this will allow for maximum heating potential to occur thanks to very light surface winds and the high pressure right overhead. Temperatures could be as hot as the mid 100s in the hottest locations North of I-10 both Saturday and Sunday, and again virtually no chance of any relief is anticipated. These temperatures will be approaching record levels, and the record for the dates of July 31 and August 1 could certainly be met or exceeded. As I did yesterday, I will post some climatological data displaying the official forecast high temperature, and the record high for the date. Also, with the impinging heat wave it is prudent to run through heat safety tips at this time. All of this said information will succeed the forecast discussion. I believe, at this time, Sunday will be the hottest day as the large ridge of high pressure should be right over SW Louisiana. Therefore, this heat wave should peak on Sunday. The forecast high is 102 at this time, and that would certainly be a record for the date of August 1. There is some speculation as to exactly how hot it will get. Some models suggest it could a degree or two hotter than currently displayed while others show temperatures a degree or two cooler. The current 102 is a consensus of the models. The actual temperatures in excess of 100 degrees will continue to produce heat indices well into the danger category, and I expect Heat Advisories to be issued for this period. The heat index could be as high as 112 during peak heat hours on both Saturday and Sunday...yikes! The extremely hot temperatures will also result in not much cooling at all at night. Overnight lows will only be around 80 at best this weekend. Any outdoor plans you may have will be dry, but I hope they are indoors because who wants to be out in that kind of heat.
The heat wave continues into next week with only a slow reprieve in the offing. The upper level ridge will finally begin a retrograding process towards Texas, and the surface high will just meander about the Gulf Coastal Plain with very weak steering currents in place. Monday will be another day with highs right around 100, and very limited moisture to produce a late day isolated shower or two. One or two storms could occur given the fact that the upper level ridge will be shifting into Texas. This could allow for some vertical growth late in the day after the convective potential temperature has been realized. Morning lows will continue to be around a very warm 80, and coastal locations may not get much below 82 or 83. It is likely that Heat Advisory criteria will be met once again on Monday. Heat indices will continue to exceed the 105 danger zone, and inch up to near 110 again. Only a very slow modification (reduction) of temperatures is expected for the remainder of the forecast period Tuesday-Thursday. Don't expect anything below 95 during the entire forecast period. Average highs will drop back to the upper 90s by Tuesday, but some locations will still see maxes exceeding 100 especially towards AEX and POE. Heat indices will still be brutal with readings exceeding 105 each day through Thursday. High temperatures will decrease a degree or two each day as the high only slowly slides Westward, but remains close enough to allow the above normal temperatures to continue. By the middle of next week, perhaps a better chance for an afternoon shower or storm will be present once again as a bit more favorable set up for some sea breeze type activity develops. The prospects of a significant rain chance, however, are off the board, and any rain at all is an iffy proposition. A brief look at the extended forecast, shows the possibility of the ridge shifting and re-building strong over the area once again heading towards the first full weekend of August. In short, the period of above normal temperatures and oppressive heat looks to continue for the foreseeable future. Stay cool!
Here is the climate information I mentioned up above.
The first number is my official forecast high for each date, followed by the record high. Then, underneath the climate set I will display the last occurrence of 100 degree weather and the all-time record high for the Lake Charles reporting site.
Friday July 30- Forecast High- 98 Record High- 99- 1948
Saturday July 31- Forecast High- 100 Record High- 100- 1948
Sunday August 1- Forecast High- 102 Record High- 99- 1998
Monday August 2- Forecast High- 100 Record High- 101- 1998
Tuesday August 3- Forecast High- 98 Record High- 100- 1899
The last time a temperature of 100 or greater was recorded at Lake Charles was on June 25, 2009 when the mercury reached a stifling 102. It was a record for the date.
The all-time record high at Lake Charles is 107, and this occurred nearly 10 years ago on August 31, 2000.
Now, some heat safety tips:
Wear light-colored clothing. Dark colored clothing attracts heat, light colored clothing reflects it. The light colored clothing will keep you cooler.
Drink plenty of non-alcoholic beverages particularly water to keep yourself hydrated.
When working or playing outside, take frequent breaks and go into an A/C home or building to allow your body time to cool off.
Do not lock pets or kids in your car. The temperature in vehicles can be 20-30 degrees hotter than the actual temperature.
Protect yourself from the sun. Use sunscreen or sun block if you plan on being outside for a lengthy period whether you are going to the beach, out on the lake or just going to be outside for a while.
Check on the elderly.
Make sure your pets have plenty of cold water to drink & a nice shady spot to cool off in if you keep them outside.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 75/98 78/100 80/102 0 10 0 0 0 0
LFT 76/98 79/101 80/102 0 10 0 0 0 0
BPT 76/96 78/99 81/101 0 10 0 0 0 0
AEX 74/99 75/102 77/104 0 10 0 0 0 0
POE 74/99 75/101 77/103 0 10 0 0 0 0
ARA 76/97 80/99 81/100 0 10 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Clear. Low 75. Light & Variable wind.
Friday...Mostly Sunny & Very Hot. High 98. West wind 5-10 mph. Heat index values 103-108 in the afternoon.
Friday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 78. Light West wind.
Saturday...Mostly Sunny & Very Hot. Near Record Highs. High 100. West wind 5-10 mph. Heat index values 107-112.
Saturday Night...Clear. Low Near 80. Light and Variable wind.
Sunday...Mostly Sunny & Continued Very Hot. Record Highs Possible. High 102. WNW wind 5-10 mph. Heat index values 107-112.
Friday 7/30/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear, A Calm & Quiet Warm Morning.
Temp: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: W 2
9a.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny, Heating Up Quick
Temp: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: W 4
H.I.: 95
Noon
Weather: Mostly Sunny, A Hot Lunch.
Temp: 93
Rain: 0%
Wind: W 7
H.I.: 103
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy to Mostly Sunny, Triple Digit Heat in Some Areas.
Temp: 98
Rain: 10%
Wind: W 10
H.I.: 107
6p.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny, Blazing Hot.
Temp: 95
Rain: 0%
Wind: W 6
H.I.: 106
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear. Lotta Mosquitoes.
Temp: 86
Rain: 0%
Wind: SW 3
H.I.: 94
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
7-30-10
Low: 75
High: 98
Rain: 10%
Wind: W 5-10
H.I.: 103-108
U.V.: 11- Very High
Saturday
7-31-10
Low: 78
High: 100
Rain: 0%
Wind: W 5-10
H.I.: 107-112
U.V.: 11- Very High
Sunday
8-1-10
Low: 80
High: 102
Rain: 0%
Wind: WNW 5-10
H.I.: 107-112
U.V.: 11- Very High
Monday
8-2-10
Low: 80
High: 100
Rain: 10%
Wind: WSW 5-10
H.I.: 106-111
U.V.: 11- Very High
Tuesday
8-3-10
Low: 80
High: 98
Rain: 10%
Wind: SW 5-10
H.I.: 105-110
U.V.: 11- Very High
Wednesday
8-4-10
Low: 78
High: 97
Rain: 20%
Wind: S 5-10
H.I.: 105-110
U.V.: 11- Very High
Thursday
8-5-10
Low: 78
Rain: 20%
Wind: S 5-10
H.I.: 103-108
U.V.: 11- Very High
..Tropical Update...
There are two tropical waves of significance in the Atlantic Basin. One such wave is near the Lesser Antilles. This area is fairly disorganized, and there is currently no sign of a low-level center. It is possible that conditions will become more favorable in the coming days as this system moves into the Caribbean Sea for some development to occur. This will be a slow process as the system moves off to the West at about 10-15 mph through the weekend. Locally heavy rains and strong gusty winds will occur over portions of the Lesser Antilles through Friday. The National Hurricane Center gives this area about a 10% chance of development through Saturday.
Elsewhere in the tropics, no tropical cyclone formation is anticipated through Saturday.
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...West winds around 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday...West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Friday Night...West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.
Saturday Night...West winds around 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Sunday...Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.
...Tide Data...
Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 12:26p.m.
High: 6:10a.m. 6:24p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
168.06'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Low: 75
Normal Low: 74
Record Low: 67-1904
High: 94
Normal High: 92
Record High: 102-1915
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 6.86"
Normal Month to Date: 4.83"
Year to Date: 22.38"
Normal Year to Date: 32.94"
Record: 4.14"- 1933
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 80
High: 90
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 76
High: 94
Rain: 0.01"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 72
High: 92
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Friday: 6:30a.m.
Sunset Friday: 8:08p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Tuesday August 3
New Moon- Tuesday August 10
First Quarter- Monday August 16
Full Moon- Tuesday August 24
Have a Great Friday & God Bless! See you when I return from vacation!
-DM-
