Rain Chances & a Chance of Severe Storms Back in the Forecast...

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Before I get to the forecast, I wanted to give you a link to an update on the Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill. Of course we're all hoping and praying for the best, but it looks like a very serious ecological and economical disaster may be imminent for the Gulf Coast. Also, I continue to send my thoughts & prayers to the victims and their families of last week's oil rig fire. God bless everyone!

Oil Spill Update

Another Site for Oil Spill Information



The blog will be in severe weather mode through Sunday...

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...You can observe the much advertised changes just by gazing out the window this evening. This was right on track with what was laid out for you last night. It is windy, clouds and humidity have increased in earnest across the forecast area. This is all in response to a deep Southerly flow which is well established across the forecast area now as we lie in between weather systems. The controlling high of the last couple days is over the SE U.S., and a potent elongated Pacific trough resides out to our West. It is the squeeze play between the said systems that results in the tightening pressure gradient across the area. The windy conditions will prevail as the high over the SE acts as a blocking mechanism (something also discussed last week). The Pacific system over the Rockies and Great Plains will slowly move our way. Quiet weather is in store tonight with just the very humid air and windy conditions prevailing. Skies should range from Partly to Mostly Cloudy through the overnight hours. The air mass is soupy enough that an isolated streamer shower is certainly possible. However, without much of a trigger mechanism any rain would be luck of the draw tonight, so for this reason I will not officially mention it. Temperatures will be much above normal for Friday morning lows. After some very pleasant mornings in the 50s, lows tonight will be right around the 70 degree isotherm.

The mention of rain will certainly need to be mentioned on Friday. There really isn't much change in forecast philosophy from the previous forecast package. Let me elaborate...the much advertised potent Pacific storm will creep closer to the forecast area. The long fetch of deep Gulf moisture will continue. The associated cold front with the Pacific trough will slow and stall out somewhere to our NW. A strong Jet and SW flow aloft will allow for periodic perturbations to traverse the SW flow, and move NE across the forecast area out ahead of the stalling front. This should result in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area. However, there is a limiting factor that comes into play. The presence of an upper level cap exists tonight, and while this cap is beginning to weaken there is some question as to whether or not it will weaken enough by Friday afternoon to allow for storm development. Even if it does break, and storms fire this is still a set up that favors just scattered activity. It is not a given that everyone will get rain, but someone will...roughly about 30% of you. Now, the set up is one that does favor the possibility of some severe storms. The emanating short wave will engender shower activity over the coastal waters Friday, and these showers will move quickly to NE and intensify as they feed off of decent Jet Stream dynamics over land. The strong winds at the surface will also be veering with height and that suggests wind shear will be present. That means the possibility of some rotating storms which could produce isolated tornadoes. The short waves will generate cold pockets of air aloft as well, and this suggests the probabilities of some hail with any individual storm that develops. Winds increase with height as well, and every thunderstorm has updrafts and downdrafts. These downdrafts are strong surges of gusty winds that can often be translated down to the surface in a thunderstorm. This can lead to damaging wind in excess of 60 mph. All of these are possible with the scattered storms on Friday. Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies will prevail, and any sunshine we get will aid in storm development as that means we will reach our convective potential temperature easier. The current forecasted high is in the low to mid 80s. The severe weather threat will encompass a wide area Friday, expanding from over the Central Plains tonight. The severe weather threat area will extend from the Rio Grande Valley all the way to the Canadian border. The highest risk for severe weather will come right in the middle of this zone from the ARK-LA-TEX into the Mid West. A graphical representation follows (Severe Weather Outlook Day 2). You shouldn't let your guard down even though the severe weather possibilities will likely transpire further North. We aren't out of the woods here by any means. The best window of opportunity for severe weather to occur across the forecast area will be between 2p.m. and 8p.m. Friday. It will also remain very windy, with the pressure gradient force strengthening even a bit more. One thing I don't want to overlook as the likelihood that the persistent strong Southerly flow will lead to tidal backup on area rivers, and higher astronomical tides along the coast. The full moon factors into that equation as well. Astronomical tides are expected to be 1-2' above normal, and this could lead to see coastal flooding. For this reason, the National Weather Service has issued a Coastal Flood Watch for Jefferson County and Cameron, Vermilion, Iberia, and St. Mary Parishes. This is effect for Friday and Saturday. The strong, gusty winds will also create adverse conditions on inland waterways, and a Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for Friday. Rainfall totals could be in the 1-2" range wherever storms do occur, but the majority will see less than that. Rain chances will continue into Friday night with the front stalled out to our NW, and more disturbances likely to rotate through the established SW flow. The severe weather chances should be lessened mainly because of the loss of daytime heating. Activity will remain of the scattered variety.

Stay with me here, I know you want to know about the weekend forecast! There's a plethora of activities going on around our beautiful part of the world...Contraband Days, Fast Pitch 56, just to name a couple! These events will be able to roll, but could be impeded at times by shower or thunderstorm activity. Saturday appears to be the better weekend day as it stands right now. The same synoptic features will be in place as we start the weekend and the month of May. The stalled front will continue to be a player in the weather with a slight Southward progression possible during the day as the Eastern ridge shifts a bit. This will keep rain chances going across the area, and perhaps induce a slightly better coverage of activity. Intensity will be nearly the same, and the threat for severe storms may be realized once again. However, the best dynamics may shift a bit further NE to lessen the severe chances across the area when compared to Friday. All modes of severe weather will be possible once again, however, I would surmise that damaging wind and large hail will be the bigger threats. The set up will favor no organized convective, but it will be on a scattered basis once again. Also, the main time frame for convective activity will come in the afternoon hours. It will remain windy and very humid with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s after morning lows in the 70s once again.
Sunday will likely bring the highest chance of rain around these parts in a month. The stalled cold front will finally get an extra jolt from a dip in the Pacific trough, and it should surge through the area during the day Sunday. However, as it does so chances for showers & thunderstorms ramp up into the likely category. The synoptic set up will change a bit such that a line of showers & thunderstorms will likely develop, and with the copious amounts of low-level moisture in place multiple lines are possible. It is just waiting to be wrung out like a sponge. A severe weather possibility can't be ruled out, but at this time it appears that as the front comes through Sunday the set up will tend to favor a heavy rain event. Rainfall amounts could exceed 2" through the weekend, and the majority of that should come on Sunday since activity will be more widespread. Rain chances may ultimately end up maxing out, but for now placing chances in the likely category will suffice. The unseasonably warm low temperatures will continue with 70s for minimums once again while afternoon highs in the lower 80s. The highs will be a bit cooler because of more rainfall. The prolonged long deep Southerly flow will continue ahead of the boundary with gusty winds over 20 mph at times once again. Rain chances diminish Sunday Night as the front clears the area, and takes this nasty air mass with it. A refreshing breeze will take over, and some much nicer and drier air will be en route as well.

Improved weather is on tap beginning Monday in the wake of the early May cold front. Clouds will linger into Monday, but as high pressure builds in towards the Gulf coast during the day clouds will thin, and skies will become Mostly Sunny. It is the time of year now where it won't cool off much when we get a cold front, and that is the case here. Temperatures will really only drop to about seasonal for highs and lows. Some marvelous May weather will round out this forecast period Tuesday-Thursday with high pressure anchored over the Gulf. Temperatures will be fairly uniform each day with lows near seasonal values, but with increased subsidence and dry air in place afternoon highs will reach above normal levels into the upper 80s...almost hot! Summer isn't too far away now! A dry pattern looks to become re-established in the wake of our significant rain chances on Sunday, so if that is indeed the case let's hope we do get our much needed rain this weekend. The second weekend of Contraband Days looks dry and warm. Stay tuned!


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  70/84  73/85  75/82  10 30 30 40 40 70
LFT   69/84  72/85  75/82  10 30 30 40 40 70
BPT   71/85  74/86  76/82  10 30 30 40 50 70
AEX  67/85  71/87  74/80  10 40 40 60 60 80
POE  67/85  71/86  75/80  10 40 40 50 60 80
ARA  71/83  74/84  76/81  10 30 30 40 40 70


*Lake Wind Advisory in effect Friday.*

*Coastal Flood Watch in effect for Friday & Saturday.*

Overnight...Mostly Cloudy & Windy. Low 70. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.

Friday...Mostly Cloudy & Windy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Some severe storms possible during the afternoon. High 84. SSE wind 20-25 mph and gusty.

Friday Night...Mostly Cloudy & Windy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low 73. SSE wind 20 mph and gusty.

Saturday...Mostly Cloudy & Windy with a 40% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Some severe storms possible during the afternoon. High 85. SSE wind 20-25 mph and gusty.

Saturday Night...Mostly Cloudy & Windy with a 40% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low 75. SSE wind 20 mph and gusty.

Sunday...Cloudy & Windy with showers & thunderstorms likely. Heavy rainfall possible. 1-2" of rain expected. Isolated severe weather possible. High 82. SSE wind 20-25 mph and gusty, becoming SSW in the afternoon.


Friday 4/30/10 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 70
Precip: 10%
Wind: SSE 17

9a.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 76
Precip: 20%
Wind: SSE 21

Noon

Weather: Mostly Cloudy, Windy
Temp: 80
Precip 30%
Wind: SSE 25

3p.m.

Weather: Scattered T-Storms, Windy
Temp: 84
Precip: 30%
Wind: SSE 25

6p.m.

Weather: Scattered T-Storms, Windy
Temp: 80
Precip: 30%
Wind: SSE 23

9p.m.

Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 77
Precip: 30%
Wind: SSE 21

Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Friday
4-30-10

Low: 70
High: 84
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 20-25


Saturday
5-1-10

Low: 73
High: 85
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 20-25


Sunday
5-2-10

Low: 75
High: 82
Rain: 70%
Wind: SSE/SSW 20-25


Monday

5-3-10

Low: 64
High: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15


Tuesday
5-4-10

Low: 61
High: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: WNW 10


Wednesday
5-5-10

Low: 62
High: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: W 5-10


Thursday
5-6-10
National Day of Prayer

Low: 64
High: 88
Rain: 0%
Wind: WSW 5-10


...Marine Forecast...


*Small Craft Advisory in effect until Sunday Morning.*




Tonight...Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet. A slight chance of showers.

Friday...Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet building to 5 to 6 feet after midnight. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday Night...South winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday...West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.


Have a Great Friday & God Bless!
-DM-

Rain Chances & Severe Weather Possibilities as the Calendar Rolls Over...

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...It was an absolutely beautiful day on Wednesday with high pressure in control in the wake of Monday Night's cold front. Humidity values were exceptionally low, and the sky was crystal clear with tons of sunshine. It was a refreshing start to the day with low temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s across the forecast area. Afternoon highs were more representative of seasonal values for late April with readings topping out in the lower 80s. This pleasant weather will be vacating the region over the next 24 hours, but it will remain fairly pleasant for the overnight hours with clear skies and a beautiful full moon in place. A light return flow has been established and as a result dew points and humidity values will increase, thus low temperatures will respond by only reaching more normal values with upper 50s to lower 60s logically obtainable.

The transition begins in earnest on Thursday. The controlling high at mid-week will continue its Eastward slide, and the resultant effects will be a more pronounced return flow of Gulf air. A long fetch Southerly flow will become established and bring back the low-level moisture with a vengeance. There will be no mention of rain on Thursday with the lack of a trigger mechanism, and the mid and upper levels remaining largely capped (remember what we talked about last week?). You will certainly ascertain that the humidity is back in full force by the afternoon hours. Temperatures will be similar to Wednesday with readings climbing into the lower 80s, but it won't feel near as nice thanks (or not) to the humidity. Skies will transition from Sunny early to Partly Cloudy with a good deal of cumulus clouds in place for the afternoon hours. The upper level capping begins to break down by Thursday night as another elongated trough and associated Pacific front encroach on the area. Rain chances will return to the forecast only slightly for Thursday night as the effects of the weakening cap and pooling Gulf moisture take effect. The pressure gradient will tighten across the area as well as cyclogenesis associated with the Pacific storm develops, and the squeeze play begin weather systems unravels over the forecast area. This will result in stiff Southerly breezes over 20 mph at times overnight Thursday. Any rainfall will be very scattered in nature, and nothing severe or overly heavy is expected for this period. Low temperatures will swing to above normal with only lower 70s expected for much of the area.

Rain chances ramp up on Friday, but that being said I should clarify that it will be on a scattered basis, and it will strictly be on a hit or miss basis as it stands right now. However, the atmospheric profile is one that will favor the possibility of severe weather. The weakening cap aloft should continue to wither as the potent Pacific storm punches more moisture into the upper atmosphere. There will be more than sufficient low-level moisture in place, and there is likely to be just enough convergence at the surface to generate the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms by Friday afternoon. The cold front associated with the approaching Pacific storm will likely stall out as it approaches, but it will certainly serve as a trigger mechanism to spark off the aforementioned shower and thunderstorm activity. Embedded disturbances in the long fetch SW flow will emanate out ahead of the main trough over the forecast area, and provide additional lift and instability. A strong Jet will also develop and stream from SW to NE across the NW Gulf Coast. All of this suggests that many of the parameters will be in place for some strong to severe thunderstorms to develop Friday afternoon. However, as previously stated the activity will be on a scattered nature, and there's certainly no way to pinpoint exactly who will get a severe storm much less rain in general in this pattern. The bottom line here is that all modes of severe weather will be possible across the entire forecast area, but the greatest risk should remain North of this forecast area. It is not clear cut and dry at this point if we'll see severe weather in SW Louisiana, but we certainly can't let our guard down. A supercell environment is favored in this set up, with the greatest threats from these storms being large hail and isolated tornadoes. Damaging winds can't be ruled out either. Temperature regimes will be well above normal with lows in the lower 70s, and highs in the low to mid 80s. Rain chances will be on the decent side, but not in the likely category (40%). We certainly need some rain, but don't need the severe weather. This is a situation that will be re-assessed on Thursday. This storm system will not be in a hurry to pass through as the cold front will stall out and its upper level support collapse due to the established steering currents across the country. What does this mean for the weekend?

There's a lot going on this weekend, including the first weekend of Contraband Days right here in Lake Charles. There is good news and bad news with regards to the weekend's outdoor plans. Rain chances will remain in the forecast, but it will likely not be a wash out by any means. The frontal boundary will be stalled out to our North, likely slicing through parts of the forecast area. The emanating disturbances will continue to spew out in response to the continued SW flow aloft, and ride up along the front. This means that scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is to be expected both Saturday and Sunday. Severe weather can't be ruled out either especially on Saturday when decent parameters will still be in place. However, the severe weather threat looks to lessen by Sunday. Model guidance suggests overall coverage should be about the same each day, but should be less than on Friday. Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies will be in store with very humid conditions are expected. The most likely time to see rain would be during the afternoon in response to the effects of daytime heating (almost like summer). The stalled front should wash out by Sunday, and this should lessen the severe chances. However, the presence of the long fetch SW flow will keep the periodic perturbations going, thus the continuation of rain chances. The temperature regime will be more representative of late May as opposed to early May with mid 70s for lows and highs in the mid to upper 80s area wide. This weather pattern will certainly not wash out all the outdoor events, but if you do have plans to attend Contraband Days, Fast Pitch 56, etc. you will want to bring your rain gear to be prepared. By all means, please seek immediate shelter once you see lightning or hear thunder! Again, the prospects of any severe weather during this time will be re-assessed Thursday.

A forecast of persistence is in order for the first part of next week. This reluctant pattern will remain in place until a secondary, stronger Pacific front comes through and clears everything out. When this occurs exactly remains to be seen. It seems doubtful that it will be Monday. Rain chances do ramp up more on Monday as the stronger front approaches, and Jet Stream energy is enhanced once again. Scattered convection is expected Monday, and the best chances should come on Tuesday as it stands right now. This seems to be the most likely day to see the frontal passage occur. Rain and storms could be likely on Tuesday, but it is too early to tell about severe weather during this period. Just understand that a prolonged period of rain chances is expected beginning Friday and lasting through Tuesday with daily variations on percentages expected. The temperature regime for the first part of next week will be a replay of the weekend. Sky conditions will be Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a daily dose of cumulus clouds expected. It is these a random selection of these cumulus clouds that will experience maturation and turn into thunderstorms primarily in the afternoon hours. The end of the forecast period on Wednesday looks quiet at this time. There is still some speculation as to whether or not the front will hold back and not pass through until Wednesday. For now, I will offer a solution that reflects a Tuesday frontal passage, thus keeping Wednesday nice with lower humidity and pleasantly warm temperatures. The front appears strong enough that some cooling will occur behind it with lows down into the lower 60s once again by the end of the forecast period, and highs around 80. Some 50s will be possible for lows just beyond the forecast period with a refreshing area of high pressure building into the region in the wake of Tuesday's front. Pleasant early May weather may close out the rest of next week with promising weather for Mother's Day weekend and the second big weekend of Contraband Days. Stay tuned for more!


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  60/81  71/83  73/85  0 0 20 40 30 30
LFT   60/82  71/84  74/86  0 0 20 40 30 30
BPT   62/83  72/85  75/87  0 0 20 40 30 30
AEX  56/85  70/86  75/88  0 0 20 40 40 30
POE  57/84  71/85  75/87  0 0 20 40 40 30
ARA  60/80  72/83  75/84  0 0 20 40 30 30


Tonight...Mostly Clear and Not as Cool. Low 60. SSE wind 10 mph.

Thursday...Partly Cloudy & Breezy. High 81. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.

Thursday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low 71. SSE winds 15-20 mph and gusty.

Friday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy & Windy with a 40% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Some severe weather possible in the afternoon. High 83. SSE wind 20-25 mph and gusty.

Friday Night...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low 73. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.

Saturday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy & Windy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Some severe thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. High 85. SSE wind 20-25 mph and gusty.


Thursday 4/29/10 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 60
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 8

9a.m.

Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 13

Noon

Weather: Partly Cloudy, Breezy
Temp: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 17

3p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy, Breezy
Temp: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 20

6p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 18

9p.m.

Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 76
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 14


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Thursday
4-29-10

Low: 60
High: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20


Friday
4-30-10

Low: 71
High: 83
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 20-25


Saturday
5-1-10

Low: 73
High: 86
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 20-25


Sunday
5-2-10

                                                                                                                 
Low: 75
High: 86
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 20-25


Monday
5-3-10

Low: 75
High: 85
Rain: 50%
Wind: SSE 20-25


Tuesday
5-4-10

Low: 73
High: 82
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSW 20-25


Wednesday
5-5-10

Low: 60
High: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15


...Marine Forecast...

Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

Thursday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

Thursday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. A slight chance of showers.

Friday...South winds around 20 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday Night...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

...Tide Data...

Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass

Low:    11:45a.m.    10:13p.m.
High:      4:51a.m.      1:08p.m.


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    170.69'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Low:                51
Normal Low:   60
Record Low:   40-1920
High:               81
Normal High:  80
Record High:  95-1987

Rainfall

Today:                              0.00"
Month to Date:                 0.11"
Normal Month to Date:    3.34"
Year to Date:                   9.39"
Normal Year to Date:     15.68"
Record:                            7.65"-1914


Sensible Weather Observed Today:

None


One Year Ago (2009)

Low:   65
High:   82
Rain:   0.18"


5 Years Ago (2005)

Low:   57
High:   81
Rain:   0.00"


10 Years Ago (2000)

Low:   58
High:   87
Rain:   0.00"


Sunrise Thursday:    6:32a.m.
Sunset Thursday:     7:49p.m.


...Lunar Table...

Full Moon- Tonight April 28

Last Quarter- Thursday May 6

New Moon- Friday May 14

First Quarter- Thursday May 20



Have a Great Thursday & God bless!
-DM-

Quick Hiccup in the Absolutely Awesome April Weather Tonight, then Right Back on Track...

Monday, April 26, 2010

Before I get to the forecast discussion, I wanted to take a minute to elaborate on the storm event across the South from this past weekend. First, we were very lucky here. There was absolutely no severe weather anywhere in the forecast anywhere, and hardly any rain for that matter. Our atmosphere remained largely capped, and that was the saving grace. All parameters for severe weather were in place, and many of them were nearly off the charts. However, it is the cap aloft that prevented storms from forming, so thank God for that.

However, our friends and neighbors to our East were not so lucky. A very powerful supercell thunderstorm developed ahead of Saturday morning's cold front. Interestingly enough, this supercell formed near the TX/LA line E of Jasper, TX around 8a.m. Saturday. It took a little while to attain severe attributes, but once it did it was an amazing and awful site to see unfold. The storm produced some hail below severe limits in Vernon Parish, but as it raced NE around 60 mph it grew much stronger, and began to rotate. As the storm ran into a highly sheared environment, the rotation increased and became violent. Near Tallulah, LA a large wedge tornado touched down. What happened next was what we had been fearing could happen all week. The tornado grew larger and stronger and continued to race NE into Mississippi. It eventually weakened as it moved into Alabama. So far, storm surveys from the Jackson, MS NWS office show that the tornado had a continuous path from near Tallulah to rural Eastern Mississippi just to the NE of West Point. The hardest hit areas were near the Central MS town of Yazoo City, NW of Jackson, and in the rural counties of Holmes and Choctaw this includes the towns of Durant and Weir. This is a continuous damage path of nearly 150 miles. Data is still being compiled on this deadly tornado, and it is possible that the continuous track could be even longer. At its strongest point near Yazoo City the tornado was nearly 1.75 miles wide, and had winds of 170-175 mph. This is an EF-4 on the tornado scale. This is in the upper echelon of all tornadoes. EF5 is the largest rating of tornadoes. Damage in many places in Mississippi has been described as "obliteration". The storm did prove fatal unfortunately with 12 fatalities in Mississippi, and many injuries in NE Louisiana and Mississippi. This will be an amazing storm for us as meteorologists to analyze for years to come. My thoughts and prayers go out to all the tornado victims and their families. God bless them all!

In closing, I just wanted to say that I can't stress to you enough how lucky we were on Saturday. If the cap had not held we could've very well endured a tornado outbreak of our own across SW Louisiana. Thankfully, that was not the case, but never take it for granted. There will be other severe weather outbreaks, and next time it could be us, you just never know. That's why I always say you need to take severe weather threats seriously, and always have a way to inform yourself when threatening weather is expected. Do you know what to do or where to go if a tornado threatens? It is essential that you and your family have a plan in place just in case. More severe weather is possible in the Gulf states at the end of the week, so now is the time to have a plan in place if you don't have one already.

Here is a link that provides more information for your perusal on the violent April 24, 2010 tornado:

EF-4 Tornado 24 April 10


SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...It was another beautiful day on Monday with very low humidity, however, it was quite warm again with maximums reaching the mid to upper 80s. It was officially 88 here in Lake Charles. 88 felt good today, but you know it won't be long before 88 will feel like 100, so enjoy it while it lasts. It was a nice, refreshing start to the day Monday with morning lows well down into the 50s. The nice weather has carried over into this Monday night, however there will be a minor hiccup while we are sleeping. A re-enforcement cold front is en route at present, and it is making good progress through Texas tonight. It is currently approaching the Houston area. A weak upper level disturbance out ahead of the front has sparked off a few showers and thunderstorms over Central and SE Texas as the front makes its headway. Therefore, a slight 20-30% chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm is introduced for the overnight hours Certainly an increase in cloud cover will be observed as the front moves into the region. Moisture in the low levels is limited, but there is enough forcing generated by the front that it was able to overcome the surface dry air with a pocket of moist air aloft via the upper level disturbance. These storms have verged on the severe weather criteria from time to time this evening, however, they should weaken as they move towards SW Louisiana with drier air in place and the loss of daytime heating having an effect on the storms. Nevertheless, it is possible this very small shower/thunderstorm complex will hold together to give some of us a minor wet down overnight. We could stand to use the rain, however, this will not be a major rain event by any means, and it will likely just be enough to wet the ground. The most likely time frame to see some rain across our part of the world will come between 11p.m. and 2a.m. This is a fast mover, and a moisture starved system, so as quick as it comes in, it gets out. The clouds will increase, and we will see a few hours of Mostly Cloudy conditions. This will last until around sunrise perhaps,but as a general rule fast clearing should occur. This is a fairly strong boundary for late April, and temperatures will respond as such. Tuesday morning minimums will be in the mid 50s with a strong offshore flow in place in the wake of the front.

Great weather is forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday with high pressure in control, and a refreshing offshore flow in place. Lots of sunshine is expected both days with low humidity values continuing. Tuesday highs should be closer to normal around 80 compared to the upper 80s on Monday. Any clouds still around Tuesday morning will exit stage right before noon. No blemishes are expected on Wednesday, and the morning will be very refreshing with temperatures once again below normal. The coldest locations will likely see mid 40s on Wednesday, but the average low should be around 50 for most. High pressure will begin to shift Eastward by late Wednesday, and this will allow for an onshore flow to develop at that time, but pleasant weather is expected overall even on Thursday. The humidity will begin to creep back into the forecast Thursday, but it will still be somewhat pleasant. The increase in low-level moisture will likely result in a transition from Sunny to Partly Cloudy skies by Thursday afternoon. Temperature modification will begin in earnest as well. Thursday temperatures should be close to normal for both highs and lows.

April closes out on Friday, and as it does so the weather will change. A pattern very similar to the all too familiar summer regime is expected with a few exceptions. Humidity and low-level moisture increases with a vengeance as the controlling mid week high shifts towards the Atlantic, and another in a continuing series of spring storm systems approaches the area from the Rockies and Great Plains. Winds will be on the increase due to the pressure anomalies associated with this pattern. Rain chances will be back in the forecast beginning Friday and continuing through the remainder of the forecast period on Monday. There is a lot of uncertainty wrt the associated cold front, but it should certainly get close enough to bring rain chances back into the equation. How much rain and the prospects of severe weather remain uncertain. It is not a given that this front is going to push through the forecast area, but there are some suggestions that it will by Sunday. It will certainly takes it time moving through the area, and definitely be in a weakening state as it does so. For now, the forecast will not reflect a frontal passage. Rain chances will vary from day to day as there will likely be disturbances that emanate out ahead of the front to affect the daily chance. The set up appears to favor mainly scattered convection during the afternoon hours. This is very similar to what we would experience in the summer months, and you might want to call this a preview. Depending on the established parameters, some severe weather could be possible especially on Friday and Saturday, but the highest probabilities of severe weather should remain north of this forecast area. The chances for scattered convection will remain in place into next week. The temperature regime will trend above normal with lows into the low to mid 70s while afternoon highs reach the mid to upper 80s under Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies. Dare I say that for the first time all year, a heat index may come into play with the warm temperatures and the high humidity? It is possible that if the boundary stays in our area in the Sunday-Monday time frame that the set up may favor a heavy rain event, but again this is not reflected in the forecast at this time. There's a lot going on this weekend, including the first weekend of Contraband Days right here in Lake Charles, so the timing on this rain may not be the best. However, I wouldn't change any weekend plans just yet, as this will be a hit or miss proposition. We certainly do need the rain, so stay tuned. In the extended, another front should approach and pass through the forecast area around Tuesday of next week, and that may bring us some Marvelous May weather for the rest of next week. Stay tuned!


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  56/78  49/80  59/82  20 0 0 0 0 0
LFT   56/79  49/80  58/82  20 0 0 0 0 0
BPT   58/80  50/81  60/82  30 0 0 0 0 0
AEX  52/77  43/80  55/83  30 0 0 0 0 0
POE  53/77  43/79  56/83  30 0 0 0 0 0
ARA  58/78  51/80  60/81  20 0 0 0 0 0


Overnight...Becoming Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. Low 56. WSW 10 mph becoming NNW at 10-15 mph after midnight.

Tuesday...Becoming Sunny. High 78. NNW wind 10-15 mph.

Tuesday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 49. Light North wind.

Wednesday...Sunny. High 80. NE wind 5-10 mph.

Wednesday Night...Clear. Low 59. Light SE wind.

Thursday...Partly Cloudy. High 82. SE wind 10-15 mph.


Tuesday 4/27/10 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 56
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 14

9a.m.

Weather: Sunny
Temp: 66
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 12

Noon

Weather: Sunny
Temp: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 13

3p.m.

Weather: Sunny
Temp: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 11

6p.m.

Weather: Sunny
Temp: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 8

9p.m.

Weather: Clear
Temp: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 4


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Tuesday
4-27-10

Low: 56
High: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15


Wednesday
4-28-10

Low: 49
High: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10


Thursday
4-29-10

Low: 59
High: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15


Friday
4-30-10

Low: 68
High: 84
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 15-20


Saturday
5-1-10

Low: 73
High: 87
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 15-20


Sunday
5-2-10

Low: 74
High: 85
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 15-20


Monday
5-3-10

Low: 73
High: 84
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 15-20


...Marine Forecast...


Tonight...West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet.

Tuesday...North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Tuesday Night...Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Wednesday...East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Wednesday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 4 feet after midnight.

Thursday...Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A slight chance of showers.


Have a great Tuesday & God Bless!
-DM-

Significant Severe Weather Event Unfolding...

Saturday, April 24, 2010

The much advertised severe weather event is starting to unfold this morning. Thankfully, it waited til after sunrise. A very volatile and soupy atmosphere is in place (just step outside). This is soon to be wrung out like a sponge. Yes, it appears the worst of this severe weather event will be further North and East of the forecast area, however, the cap that has been in place is eroding, and storms have initiated over SE Texas. These will intensify and move Eastward this morning, and have a good potential to reach severe limits. All modes of severe weather are possible, although this set up favors a tornado outbreak over hail or wind damage. As a result of the expected tornado threat, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch until 1p.m. (18Z Saturday 24 April 2010) for the entire forecast area. Today has the potential to be a very serious and life changing day for someone across the South. See the previous posts for severe weather graphics. A high risk is rarely issued, but that is indeed what we have on this Saturday from NE LA including Monroe and across much of MS and Central and Northern AL. This includes cities such as Natchez, Jackson, Meridian, Tupelo, Tuscaloosa, & Birmingham. While SW Louisiana is not in the high risk area, much of the forecast area is in the Moderate Risk area. A graphical representation of the Tornado Watch follows, and any warnings that are issued will be posted here as they come in. Everything is still on track to be out of the area by the expiration time of the tornado watch. Stay tuned!

-DM-

Severe Saturday Ahead...

Saturday, April 24, 2010

The blog remains in severe weather mode.

Here's the rundown on what to expect later today.

The majority of the forecast area is now under a Moderate Risk for severe storms. Portions of NE LA, much of MS and AL are under a rare high risk (graphical representation to follow). The threat for severe weather will rapidly increase this morning especially around daybreak as the main upper level storm system and associated cold front move into the forecast area.

Showers & a few thunderstorms are beginning to develop out ahead of the main activity over the coastal waters. These streamer showers will move NE and into the inland portions of the forecast area later this morning. The strong cap that has been in place throughout the day on Friday and into Friday evening is eroding, and it won't take much longer now for the storms to initiate over land. More widespread activity in the form of an MCS is moving E through Texas this morning. As of 2a.m. CDT the stronger activity was from near San Antonio to near Tyler, Texas and points further N and E of that. A plethora of tornado watches, and one severe thunderstorm watch are currently in effect from the Red River Valley up into the Mid West, including the Northern half of Louisiana. It is just a matter of time before we are included in a watch box now.

A very strong and intense Jet Stream is moving over the area, and this will combine with the presence of wind shear, incredible amounts of low-level moisture and instability to produce the expected severe weather. Unlike, what unfolded Friday afternoon (nothing), this time around we are on the proverbial hot seat wrt severe weather. All modes of severe weather, but a diagram we look at to determine the possibility of a tornado, called a hodograph, is very curvy in nature which suggests a significant risk for tornadoes. Certainly hail and wind damage will be possible with these storms as well, but a significant tornado outbreak could unfold later this morning. Based on the model projections and official current forecast from the Storm Prediction Center the greatest chance for tornadoes will be just to our NE. However, the environment over the forecast area is one that is conducive for supercell development ahead of the main evolving squall line. It is in this pre-frontal environment that the greatest tornado threat exists, and there could certainly be a few long-lived, long-track tornadoes across the state today. This is a very volatile situation, and I strongly urge everyone to pay attention to the latest weather developments this morning. Please have some way of receiving the latest weather information should watches or warnings be issued later today.  Everything is still on track to be over and done with by noon. Much drier and somewhat cooler air will filter in behind this system, and an offshore flow will develop in earnest by tonight. Rain chances will be in the 70-80% range for this morning, and rainfall totals should be between 1-2" for the duration of this event. I include the rain chances solely because everyone wants to know what the chances are, but in this situation rain chances are irrelevant because of the impinging severe weather.There is no audio blog for this go around, and please check back for more updates later this morning as necessary. See severe weather related graphics just below this.

That's all for now, but be sure to check back later for all the latest severe weather information. Maybe I'll catch a power nap before the storms get here.



-DM-

Dodged the Severe Weather Bullet This Afternoon, Probably Won't in the Morning...

Friday, April 23, 2010

This is an update on the severe weather potential.

We appear to have dodged the bullet with the first round of severe weather. Everything bypassed Southwest Louisiana to the N and NE this morning and afternoon. The atmosphere over SW Louisiana remained largely capped as the advancing short wave ejected further N than expected. Also, convective potential was inhibited in a large way by the intermittent drizzle and light rain we experienced this morning and early afternoon. This kept temperatures lower than forecast, thus inhibiting the chance to reach our convective temperature which was in the lower 80s. However, I don't want you to be lured into a sense of complacency thinking we are out of the woods.

A very dangerous weather situation will unfold overnight. It will continue to be quiet this evening if you have any plans this evening or tonight it will just be windy and muggy. The cap is beginning to erode now, and as the main thrust of this system (cold front/dry line/surface low) moves our way, we will likely get in on the severe weather action. Storms have initiated across Central Texas up into the ARK-LA-TEX, and this is a harbinger of things to come. A Tornado Watch has been issued until 2a.m. from Central Texas into the same ARK-LA-TEX region. These storms will translate ESE overnight, and be on our doorstep Saturday morning. The most likely time frame for this to occur will be between 4 and 8a.m. for immediate SW Louisiana and til about 10a.m. for Acadiana. All modes of severe weather will be possible, and I would expect some scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop as we get closer to midnight and as the developing squall line approaches. I fully expect watch boxes to be issued later on tonight for the entire area. While the entire area stands a chance to see some severe, the greatest risk remains further to our North. I have included some graphics to illustrate.


Please listen to the audio blog for more specificity with how the weather situation will unfold!

That's all for now, I will have more updates later as necessary.


-DM-

Season's First Significant Severe Weather Unfolding for Friday into Saturday...

Thursday, April 22, 2010

Severe Weather Friday & Saturday...

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Thursday was another beautiful day across the forecast area with highs in the lower 80s once again under Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy skies. The quiet weather continues tonight, but our luck could run out on Friday. Tonight skies will be Mostly Clear to Partly Cloudy. A more pronounced onshore flow is present, as high pressure in the mid and upper levels breaks down and moisture surges into all levels of the atmosphere. Temperatures will be quite mild with reading only bottoming out in the low to mid 60s across the area. The much advertised potential severe weather maker continues to trudge Eastward tonight through the Great Plains with another day of tornadoes from Texas to Nebraska. How will this system affect our area, and when? A lengthy breakdown follows...

First, Friday will start off in a rather benign fashion. The day should dawn with generally Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies and the aforementioned mild temperatures. A strong Jet Stream will exist throughout the day, and intensify as daytime heating takes over and creates the usual mixing processes. This will result in strong, gusty winds during the day with winds over 20 mph at times. The persistent onshore flow will continue, and bring in a significant surge of low-level moisture. The high low-level moisture content will play in role in what unfolds Friday afternoon. The potent Pacific storm will move Eastward, and as it does so a very energized atmosphere will create a volatile situation. A short wave (disturbance) will emanate out ahead of the main associated trough. This will be enough of a trigger to spark off some scattered convection especially during the afternoon hours. We should have no problem reaching the convective potential temperature which will be in the lower 80s. Scattered streamer shower activity should develop by late morning to around noon as the deeper moisture moves in. These scattered air mass showers will be quick movers, and rainfall rates will be limited. Not everyone will get in on the rainfall on Friday, however, there is a problem. The atmospheric conditions will be in such a volatile state Friday afternoon as the short wave ejects and interacts with the Jet Stream energy. Thus, the prospects for severe weather should be realized. All forecast models have come into agreement on two rounds of severe weather, and it is the first of which will occur Friday afternoon. All modes of severe weather are possible, however, the greatest risk should be across the Northern half of the forecast area, and into North Louisiana. SW Louisiana is certainly not out of the woods, however, the Gulf is often an inhibiting factor wrt severe weather. This is one reason that the severe risk will be greatest further inland. However, that being said, there is a very strong Jet Stream and good directional shear that is forecast to be in place even along the I-10 corridor. Therefore, severe weather is possible in any given location across the forecast area. The main time frame for said convection will come between noon and 6p.m. As per my Thursday evening analysis, the main severe weather threats with this first round should be large hail and isolated tornadoes. The entire forecast area is highlighted for a slight risk of severe weather as per the SPC forecast, however, a moderate risk for severe weather is currently highlighted over the Northern half of the state. This falls right in line with my current thinking that the best chance for severe weather will be for places such as Shreveport-Bossier City, Ruston, Monroe, and up into Southern Arkansas from around El Dorado over to Monticello, Pine Bluff, and Dumas. Certainly with the presence of a 60-80 kt. Jet Stream over SW Louisiana will be conducive to some of the aforementioned streamer shower to intensify quickly into supercells. These supercells will attain severe characteristics as they move SW to NE across the forecast area. These supercells will have the potential to produce tornadoes across the area, some of which could be long-track tornadoes. Forecasting severe weather is challenging in its own right, but pinpointing exactly who will experience a tornado is near impossible. Just understand, it is very likely that there will be a tornado somewhere in the area Friday. Large hail exceeding golf ball size will also be possible, as well as damaging winds in excess of hurricane force. Activity will peak in the late afternoon, early evening hours before a brief respite occurs across the area in the wake of the emanating short wave. It would be a good idea to review your severe weather plan of action on Friday at your home, school, or business. I urge everyone to keep abreast of the latest weather developments, and I would expect the issuance of a Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm Watch at some point during the day Friday. Again, not everyone will see rain on Friday. It is very much a situation where someone will get severe weather, and someone else just a few miles away won't even get a drop of rain. Rain chances are in the 30-40% range, but they'll be going higher in the next period (Saturday).


Let's quickly review some severe weather safety tips:

-Seek shelter immediately once you hear thunder or see lightning.

-Keep tuned to local TV and/or radio affiliates or other media outlets for the latest weather information.


-If applicable, set your NOAA Weather Radio to alert mode....you can program it for your own parish or county.

-If a tornado warning is issued, take refuge on the lowest floor of your home or office, stay away from windows and doors.

-Protect yourself from flying debris.

-Do not open windows!


-If in your vehicle, abandon it and lay flat in a ditch or culvert and use your hands to cover your head from flying debris. Do not seek shelter under an overpass, and do not try to outrun the tornado.

-Please stay inside during the tornado or thunderstorm for that matter. Yes, pictures are great, but it is not worth risking your life to get photos!

-Call your local law enforcement official or report your severe weather to the NWS in Lake Charles.

-Please send in your pictures of any storm damage (after the storm or if you capture some video or pictures of the storm well in advance) to me @ BestWxMan1980@yahoo.com.

-Feel free to leave me any questions or comments you have right here on the blog or send them to the e-mail provided above.

-Check back during the day Friday for more updates including watch and/or warning information.


Here are some severe weather graphics from the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK.

A respite comes Friday evening into the nighttime hours of Friday, however, all eyes will be watching the next round of severe weather unfold out West. The main thrust of this system is a very potent upper level low which will still be back over Texas Friday night, but as it feels influence from the very fast Jet developing over the area it will pick up steam and begin to eject from the base of a Great Plains trough. The energy produced by the Jet Stream and the dynamics of the upper level low will induce a surface low in the Red River Valley Friday. This low will traverse Eastward, and the cold front/dry line will trail from this feature. This will set the stage for the second and final round of adverse weather. This is what will likely bring us a higher threat for severe weather here in the immediate SW Louisiana area, and a moderate risk for severe weather is certainly feasible for areas from Lake Charles eastward for Saturday. The end result will be the development of showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the boundary over Texas Friday afternoon and evening, with this activity expected to congeal into a squall line or MCS. Soundings and forecast parameters suggest a tornado outbreak will commence across the ARK-LA-TEX region Friday night, and evolve further ESE through the night. While much of the overnight hours of Friday could be quite with just a few scattered showers, as dawn nears on Saturday severe weather possibilities will ramp up once again. Additional Jet Stream may engender a separate surface low over the NW Gulf or just inland over SE Texas. This will trek across SW Louisiana Saturday morning just ahead of the front. Thus, our higher risk for severe weather at that time. A tornado threat will be possible across the entire area, but the greatest tornado risk will be north of I-10 and over into Acadiana. Damaging wind and large hail will be threats as well, although with the amount of wind shear in the atmosphere wind damage seems like the biggest threat. The time frame for which to expect the main thrust of this potential severe weather will be between 6a.m. and noon across the forecast area. SE Texas should experience the advancing MCS around 6a.m. while it should be near the Lake Charles area between 8 and 9a.m. and in the Lafayette vicinity between 10 and 11a.m. This is expected to be a fast mover, and the entire complex should clear the forecast area by noon or shortly thereafter. Once it passes your area, the severe threat is over, and much better weather is to be expected by the latter half of Saturday. I should take a minute to mention rainfall amounts. We do need rain, we don't need the severe weather, but this looks like a situation where we won't get one without the other. 1-2" of rainfall is expected on average for the Friday-Saturday time frame. Certainly with the brief heavy rain expected, some localized street flooding could occur, but overall no flooding problems are expected at least here locally. A more significant flooding problem could occur towards SE Louisiana where heavier rain amounts in excess of 3" are expected in some places. Rain chances for Friday night will remain in the 40% range, but they jump up to the likely category of 80% for Saturday. A mild temperature regime will be in place during this entire event with lows by Saturday morning only around 70. Saturday afternoon temperatures should exceed 80 once again, and it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility that some sunshine may return before the end of the day Saturday as much drier air filters in behind the cold front. I call it a cold front simply because it is that by definition. It won't really do much for us as far as giving us any cooling effects. However, much drier air will filter in and offer up some pleasant weather its wake.

Drastic improvements follow the severe weather on Saturday afternoon. The cold front and severe weather will be long gone, as it will be over Dixie by that time. We will see an offshore flow develop, and high pressure will be building into the Red River Valley. Clearing skies will take over by Saturday night. Expect temperatures to fall off to near normal late April levels with upper 50s by Sunday morning. The period Sunday-Tuesday should be beautiful and pleasant with high pressure in control at the surface and aloft. A fairly uniform temperature regime is expected as well with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s each day, and highs hovering around the 80 degree isotherm. A steady state humidifying and warming trend is expected by the middle of the week as high pressure slides off to the East, bringing back the usual onshore flow. Low temperatures will climb back into the low to mid 60s by the end of forecast period, while highs remain in the lower to middle 80s depending on your proximity to the Gulf of Mexico. We will transition from sunny skies at the beginning of the week to a mix of sun and clouds by Thursday as Gulf moisture is ushered back in. A dry forecast is maintained for the time being beyond Saturday. The pattern will be such that it will block any potential storm systems from affecting our area in the Sunday-Thursday time frame. This blocking pattern is exactly what we have been dominated by nearly the entire month of April. Long range models continue to suggest the potential for another significant storm around May 1st. I won't elaborate on that now with so much to be concerned with in the short term, but we'll see how this evolves next week. Stay tuned for more updates on Friday as the severe weather outbreak unfolds!

Be sure to listen to the audio blog for more specifics!


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  66/82  69/83  58/80  0 30 40 80 0 0
LFT   65/83  68/83  60/81  0 30 40 80 0 0
BPT   66/83  70/81  59/82  0 40 50 80 0 0
AEX  61/84  66/80  55/78  0 40 60 90 0 0
POE  61/83  67/80  56/78  0 40 60 90 0 0
ARA  66/83  71/81  61/81  0 30 40 80 0 0


Overnight...Mostly Cloudy. Low 66. SE wind 10 mph.

Friday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy & Windy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Some severe storms with damaging winds, large hail, & isolated tornadoes possible. High 82. SSE wind 20-25 mph and gusty.

Friday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Some severe storms w/ tornadoes, damaging winds, & large hail possible towards morning. Low 69. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.

Saturday...Cloudy & Windy with showers & thunderstorms likely during the morning. Severe storms & locally heavy rainfall possible. Rain ending by noon with drastic improving in the afternoon. Clouds decreasing in the afternoon. High 83. SSW wind 20-25 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 80% in the morning. Rainfall amounts up to 2" possible.

Saturday Night..Mostly Clear & Cooler. Low 58. WNW wind 10 mph.

Sunday...Sunny. High 80. West wind 10 mph.


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Friday
4-23-10

Low: 66
High: 82
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 20-25


Saturday
4-24-10

Low: 69
High: 83
Rain: 80%
Wind: SSW 20-25


Sunday
4-25-10

Low: 58
High: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: W 10


Monday
4-26-10

Low: 56
High: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: WNW 10


Tuesday
4-27-10

Low: 58
High: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: WSW 10-15


Wednesday
4-28-10

Low: 61
High: 83
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 10-15


Thursday
4-29-10

Low: 65
High: 85
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 15-20


...Marine Forecast...


Tonight...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.

Friday...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday Night...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening. A chance of showers. A chance of thunderstorms after midnight.

Saturday...South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday Night...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.

Sunday...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.


Have a Great Friday & Check Back for More on the Severe Storm Situation Later Today! God Bless!
-DM-