Finally Gonna Feel Like Fall For a Few Days...Storms on Friday Ahead of Another Front...Does That Mean Even Cooler for the Weekend???

Monday, September 28, 2009

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...A strong cold front is in transit tonight. It is currently moving through the forecast area, pretty much bisecting the forecast area running from near Baton Rouge to Jasper, TX. A sharp contrast in dew points is noted behind the front, with temperatures following suit as well. The front will continue to move through the forecast area overnight, and be in the offshore waters after sunrise Tuesday. It is moving to the SE about 10 mph, and at this rate it should be near Lake Charles around midnight. A few spotty showers dot the landscape across SW Louisiana ahead of the front tonight. There will be a slight chance of any one location getting a brief shower overnight until the front scours out the moist air mass in place. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed from Lake Charles westward to Beaumont this afternoon ahead of a convergence zone (disturbance) ahead of the front. Rain was heavy at times and some minor urban flooding occurred. Nothing like this is expected tonight as the front moves through. The warm and moist air mass in place will be replaced with much drier and cooler air, and it will be very refreshing in the morning. Clouds ahead of the front will scour out shortly after the dry air moves in, and it will be a Mostly Clear start to the day. Temperatures will fall into the mid 60s by daybreak with a refreshing North breeze.

High pressure will control the weather beginning Tuesday lasting into Thursday. Pleasant weather is expected for this period with Sunny skies, cool mornings, pleasantly warm afternoons, and much lower humidity values. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s on Tuesday with the coolest night so far this season on tap for Tuesday night..Overnight minimums will range from the mid to upper 50s. Refreshing Northerly breezes on Tuesday will relax overnight as high pressure moves into Central Texas. This will allow for maximum radiational cooling with dew point readings Tuesday afternoon likely as low as the upper 40s. As usual, these readings increase a bit during the overnight, so the forecast low in the mid to upper 50s should be right on target with the dry air in place. Wednesday will be a beautiful day with very similar afternoon highs to that of Wednesday. Another cool, refreshing night is expected Wednesday night, but with the controlling high beginning to slide East of the Mississippi it will be a tad warmer than Tuesday night...lower 60s should suffice with a very light return flow establishing itself at that time.Thursday will still be very pleasant, but the return flow will become more pronounced. At this same time, the next system will be taking shape.

This system will move into our area on Friday. Another decent cold front and associated sharp trough will move out of the Rockies at mid-week, and move ESE into the area Friday. A moist air mass will be in place, and ample dynamics will be generated by the advancing front. Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is expected, with some heavy rainfall as well. The jury is still out on whether or not this system will be accompanied by a severe weather threat, but this can't be ruled out. The best chance for severe weather at this time looks to be further to our North and NW from the DFW Metroplex area through Oklahoma and Kansas across into Missouri, Arkansas, and North Louisiana. This will be a 2 day event, with the Great Plains experiencing some severe weather on Thursday, and points further East Friday. There will certainly be enough dynamics in place for thunderstorms in our area, but the necessary ingredients to produce the severe weather may just miss our area. Early October isn't exactly a prime time for severe weather across our area, but it isn't unheard of, and in an El Nino year anything can happen. This is an aspect of the forecast that will be fine tuned throughout the week. Whether there is severe weather or not, rain and thunderstorms are likely Friday ahead of the front, but the timing of the front is still uncertain at this time as well. Some of the forecast models show frontal passage rather quickly on Friday morning while others indicate a Friday evening/Friday night arrival and passage. Lows will climb back into the 70s, but with the clouds and rain expected highs will only be near 80. For now, I will insert likely rain chances for Friday, and target more of an afternoon arrival, but this will be tweaked as needed in later forecasts. Temperatures will moderate as the Southerly flow deepens.

For the weekend, the forecast confidence is a low one at this point with much disparity in the models. It's a crapshoot at best at this point with some models indicating the Friday cold front stalling out along the coast, and keeping clouds and off and on showers in the forecast through the weekend, while the other models want to keep the front moving, and bring in another ridge of high pressure with lots of sunshine and pleasant temperatures in place for the weekend....I want to root for this solution!!! However, my best forecast solution at this point is to call for a blend of the models. An overrunning situation is certainly likely if the front stalls out in our vicinity. I am going to forecast Cooler and drier air to temporarily move in on Saturday behind the front, but as the front becomes stationary over the Gulf waters, and a low develops along its tail end off the Texas coast, moisture will increase from the SW on Sunday bringing back the clouds and a chance of off and on showers. Cooler temperatures are expected with lows down into the 50s/60s once again, highs will be near in the lower 80s, and Saturday looks to be a very nice day at this point. 

At the end of the forecast period on Sunday and Monday, the stalled frontal boundary looks to continue to be the dominate weather feature. A chance of off showers/thunderstorms will return to the forecast Sunday as the front remains in place just offshore. Another advancing trough will likely activate the front, and send it back Northward through the area returning us into the warm, moist air mass on Sunday. A warm and moist air mass will be place on Monday, and the chance for warm sector showers and thunderstorms will continue ahead of the next trough. The temperature forecast for Sunday is one that starts off pleasant and ends humid. Mid 60s look like a good bet at this time for Sunday morning, while afternoon highs should reach the mid 80s. With a deep, moist air mass in place, even warmer conditions are expected Monday with readings more representative of late August than early October expected. Lows should be in the lower 70s while highs again reach the mid 80s. The next in the series of troughs will move through the forecast area beyond this forecast period, and this should occur towards mid-week next week. It is projected to be the strongest front of the season so far, and will hopefully clear us out and cool us down significantly in about 8-10 days.

Tropics: It is unusually quiet for late September with no named systems across the entire Atlantic basin, but this not uncommon with an El Nino pattern in place. No tropical storm formation is expected through Wednesday.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:

LCH 64/82   59/84   65/85       10 0 0 0 0 0
LFT  65/82   58/84   62/84       10 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 62/81   55/82   59/83         0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT  63/83   60/84   66/85       10 0 0 0 0 0
POE 62/81   56/83   60/85         0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 66/83  59/84   63/84        10 0 0 0 0 0

Tonight...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with an isolated shower possible until about 2a.m. Turning Cooler and Breezy after midnight. Low 64. SW wind 10 mph becoming NNW at 10-15 mph after midnight.

Tuesday...Sunny. High 82. NW wind 10-15 mph.

Tuesday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 59. Light North wind.

Wednesday...Sunny. High 84. NE wind 5-10 mph.

Wednesday Night...Clear and Not as Cool. Low 65. Light East wind becoming SE after midnight.

Thursday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 85. SE wind 10-15 mph.


7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
*Graphics Unavailable Due to Computer Crash Last Week

Tuesday
9-29-09
Sky: Sunny
Precip: 0%
Low: 64
High: 82
Wind: NNW 10-15

Wednesday
9-30-09
Sky: Sunny
Precip: 0%
Low: 59
High: 84
Wind: NE 5-10

Thursday
10-1-09
Sky: Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy
Precip: 0%
Low: 65
High: 85
Wind: SE 10-15

Friday
10-2-09
Sky: Cloudy w/ Showers & Thunderstorms Likely
Precip: 70%
Low: 71
High: 81
Wind: SSE 15-20

Saturday
10-3-09
Sky: Sunny
Precip: 0%
Low: 58
High: 80
Wind: NNW/NNE 10-15

Sunday
10-4-09
Sky: Partly Cloudy w/ a Chance of Showers
Precip: 30%
Low: 63
High: 82
Wind: NE/SE 10-15

Monday
10-5-09
Sky: Mostly Cloudy w/ a Chance of Showers & Thunderstorms
Precip: 40%
Low: 71
High: 84
Wind: SSE 10-15

...Marine Forecast...

Tonight...Northwest winds 5-10 knots becoming northeast 10-15 knots after midnight. Seas 2- 3 feet building to 3-4 feet after midnight. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday...Northeast winds 10-15 knots. Seas 2-4 feet subsiding to 2-3 feet in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night...Northeast winds 10-15 knots. Seas 2-3 feet.

Wednesday...Northeast winds 10-15 knots becoming east 5-10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2-3 feet.

Wednesday Night...East winds 5-10 knots becoming southeast after midnight. Seas 3 feet.

Thursday...South winds 10-15 knots. Seas 3-5 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Tide Data...Calcasieu Pass, LA...

Tuesday Tides:
Low: 9:23a.m.  6:51p.m.
High: 2:41a.m. 11:00a.m.

...Lake Charles Climate Summary...

Monday, September 28, 2009

Low:              75
Normal Low:  65
Record Low:   45-1909
High:               90
Normal High:  85
Record High:  96-1998

Rainfall:
Today:                           0.29"
Month to Date:              5.26"
Normal Month to Date: 5.61"
Year to Date:              46.98"
Normal Year to Date: 43.70"
Record::                       2.30"-1913

Sunrise Tuesday: 7:05a.m.
Sunset Tuesday:  7:00p.m.


Good night and God bless!
-DM-

Drier, but Not Cooler For the Weekend, But Cooler and Drier Next Week...

Thursday, September 24, 2009

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...A refreshing North breeze is making it feel kinda nice outside tonight. Not much change from the previous forecast period as the same set up controls the weather tonight. The stalled frontal boundary from Tuesday remains draped across the Atchafalaya Basin, while overrunning continues to our West in the vicinity of the secondary, much stronger front. We are caught in between with very little in the way of weather going on aside from a low overcast and an occasional light shower scattered about the area. An upper level low over the Great Plains remains nearly stationary tonight, but all of these will begin to have less of an impact on our weather over the next 24 hours. Generally, a quiet night is in store with overcast conditions and a light North breeze. Temperatures will drop a bit into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Some light showers are possible across the area, but better rain chances will remain to the NW and SE of the forecast area. At present, radar shows a heavier shower over Central Vermilion Parish near Abbeville. Other than that, only some light showers show up across North Louisiana between Ruston and Natchitoches with another area of light rain between Shreveport and Tyler and Lufkin and Jasper. The flow at the surface remains out of the North behind the stalled boundary, while in the upper levels the flow remains out of the SW, and that is the direction in which these showers are moving from. It is this overrunning pattern that will keep chances of rain in the forecast through Friday, but no widespread rain is expected. Mostly Cloudy skies will continue as well with a few peaks of sun from time to time.

For the weekend, dry weather is expected as high pressure noses in from the North as the Great Plains ULL ejects out to the NE. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm will remain in the forecast for Saturday as the frontal boundary washes out and leaves behind a moisture axis. Despite the surface flow remaining offshore, daytime heating will still allow for some scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop, but more sunshine is still expected as skies transition from Mostly Cloudy to Partly Cloudy. For Sunday, rain chances should be non-existent as the front will be dissipated by that time with the Mid West High in control. It will be on the warm side for afternoon highs both Saturday and Sunday with readings in the mid to upper 80s while morning lows range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. With the drier air in place, mornings should feel somewhat pleasant, but not really fall-like at all.

Changes are still on tap for Monday as our next and stronger cold front moves through, and unlike its predecessor this one will have no trouble making it all the way through the state. A shift in the overall pattern of the Jet Stream across the country will allow for a deeper trough this go around, however, that being said, the best dynamics needed to support widespread shower and thunderstorm activity of the front will bypass our area to the North, so only a modest chance of rain is expected with the front itself acting as the focal point for shower and thunderstorm development. Temperatures for Monday ahead of the front should remain on the warm side with readings in the upper 80s to near 90 after morning lows around 70. The boundary quickly clears the area, and right now the ETA (Estimated Time of Arrival) of the front should be mid-day or so. A brief return flow will set up ahead of the boundary Monday morning, only to be quickly displaced by a more pronounced North wind once again.

Quiet weather is expected for the Tuesday and Wednesday period as high pressure builds in behind the departing front. Sunny skies and cooler temperatures will move with morning lows well down into the 60s especially Wednesday morning. The afternoons will still be warm with readings in the mid 80s, but a noticeable drop in humidity will make it feel refreshing. A fast upper flow should be established behind Monday's deep trough, and another cold front will be coming down the pipe and into range by Thursday. This will set up a return flow off the Gulf, and an increase in low-level moisture will ensue. Temperatures should still be pleasant in the 60s Thursday morning, but some return flow showers can't be ruled out in the more humid air by Thursday afternoon. The timing of the actual late week front is still a bit uncertain, and right now models suggest that Friday is the most likely day for this to occur with a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms, but this is the kind of forecast this is certainly do some revisions as we get into next week. We'll be heading into October at the end of the forecast period, and this is often one of the driest months of the year around here, but with El Nino in place all bets are off.

Tropics: No tropical storm formation is expected into the weekend, but there's a tropical wave that has just emerged off the coast of Africa that will have the chance to develop over the coming days. Development, if any, will be slow to occur as the system moves off to the WNW at 10-15 mph through the weekend.

Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecasts:

LCH  68/85  69/88  70/90   30 30 30 20 10 20
LFT   72/85  72/88  71/90   40 30 30 20 10 30
BPT   67/84  68/89  72/90   30 30 30 20 10 20
AEX  65/84  67/87  68/90   30 30 30 20 10 20
POE   66/84  68/87  68/90  30 30 30 20 10 20
ARA  74/85  72/88  68/90  40 30 30 20 10 20

Tonight...Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. Low 68. North wind 10 mph.

Friday...Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of rain. High 85. NE wind 10-15 mph.

Friday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. Low 69. Light NE wind.

Saturday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 88. East wind 5-10 mph.

Saturday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 70. Light East wind.

Sunday...Mostly Sunny. High 90. NE wind 10 mph.


7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity

*Graphics for 7 Day Outlook once again Unavailable

Friday
9-25-09
Sky: Mostly Cloudy
Precip: 30%
Low: 68
High: 85
Wind: NE 10-15

Saturday
9-26-09
Sky: Partly Cloudy
Precip: 20%
Low: 69
High: 88
Wind: E 5-10

Sunday
9-27-09
Sky: Mostly Sunny
Precip: 10%
Low: 70
High: 90
Wind: NE 5-10

Monday
9-28-09
Sky: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Precip: 30%
Low: 72
High: 90
Wind: SE/NW 10-20

Tuesday
9-29-09
Sky:
Partly Cloudy
Precip: 20%
Low: 68
High: 82
Wind: NNW 10-15

Wednesday
9-30-09
Sky: Sunny
Precip: 0%
Low: 62
High: 84
Wind: NE 10

Thursday
10-1-09
Sky: Partly Cloudy in the Morning, Mostly Cloudy in the Afternoon
Precip: 20%
Low: 67
High: 86
Wind: SSE 10-15

...Marine Forecast from the NWS Lake Charles...

Tonight...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Friday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday Night...East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Saturday...East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday Night...South winds around 5 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 1 foot. Isolated showers.

Sunday...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

...Tide Data...Tidal Information Provided is for Calcasieu Pass, LA...

Friday Tides:
Low: 3:50p.m.
High: 12:42a.m.

...Lake Charles Climate Summary from NWS Lake Charles...

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Low:             73
Normal Low: 67
Record Low: 51-1975
High:             85
Normal High: 86
Record High: 87-1931

Rainfall:
Today:                          0.00"
Month to Date:              4.97"
Normal Month to Date: 4.88"
Year to Date:              46.69"
Normal Year to Date: 42.97"
Record:                         5.14"-2005 (Hurricane Rita)

Sunrise Friday: 7:03a.m.
Sunset Friday: 7:05p.m.


Good night and God bless!
-DM-

Remembering Rita: 4 Years Later

Thursday, September 24, 2009

*This look back at Rita will be very lengthy, but please read it, and feel free to post your comments and questions about the storm. I would love to hear from you. 

Tonight, I continue my look back at the most powerful storm to ever affect SW Louisiana: Hurricane Rita! We all have a story related to the storm, whether you evacuated or stayed behind. Here's my personal account of the storm. This was written shortly after the storm, and while I was still at ULM in the fall of 2005.

Hurricane Rita! The first major hurricane to hit SW Louisiana in 48 years!

September 24, 2005 is a date none of us here will ever forget! It's the day a lot of lives in our beautiful corner of the world were turned upside down by the very worst of Mother Nature. Granted, I'm not trying to take away from the severity of Hurricane Katrina here, but Rita is by far the worst storm to ever hit the Lake Charles area. The national media coverage of Rita was more than subpar. It was like Lake Charles & vicinity never even existed except during the height of the storm, when you saw a few live reports from the city on national media outlets, but then the day after the storm all the attention was back on Katrina's aftermath, and how to rebuild the great city of New Orleans.

I know we'll all have many many stories to tell for years to come about how Rita affected our lives. I can't imagine the horror at the height of the storm for those who stayed. As one who loves weather, part of me wanted to be right here in the thick of the category 3 winds, but the human being in me, had more sense about it all, and stayed in Alexandria at a relative's house. I drove down there from Monroe on Thursday before the storm, and my parents drove off from our home here in Lake Charles that afternoon. It took them about 5 hours to reach Alexandria, a trip that normally takes around 90 minutes or so. I was the only one heading South on Highway 165. That is a visual image that will stick with me forever.

Before I get back into the meteorological aspect of Rita, I want to share some personal feelings I had of Rita. For me, it seemed so surreal after seeing what Rita did to SW Louisiana, after seeing the devastation of Katrina first hand over Labor Day weekend. I was in utter shock and awe when I went to SE Louisiana the weekend after Katrina hit. The first time I came back into Lake Charles after Rita was for fall break the 2nd week of October, and while things were already improving across the area, I was even more in shock after driving around town. You just can't believe something like that can happen until you see it first hand. I didn't think I'd ever see any devastation worse than what I encountered in the Covington-Mandeville area after Katrina, but Rita's damage here in the Lake area surpasses that. I stress that, I by no means, saw the worst of Katrina's damage, and I imagine that the damage in Mississippi is far far worse than that here in Lake Charles and surrounding areas. Cameron Parish, isn't too far behind what happened in coastal Mississippi, and I've heard many people from Cameron Parish who saw the devastation with Katrina in Mississippi, that this is just as bad as that.

I have seen some of the damage in Cameron Parish up close, and it is by far the worst thing I've ever seen. I haven't had a chance yet to get down to the Holly Beach or Johnson Bayou area, but I hope to do so before returning to Monroe for the Spring semester. Here we are, about 3 and a half months after the storm now, and there's still about 60-70% of the structures in Calcasieu Parish with blue roofs, and much of Cameron Parish is still uninhabitable with the mandatory evacuation being lifted just this week. There have been many images on local TV and in the American Press of Cameron Parish, and it is awful. Nothing hits you harder than seeing this happen in your community. It is a blessing that there was very little loss of life here in SW Louisiana/SE Texas because of Rita. I know, a lot of that was as a result of Katrina. Everyone saw how catastrophic Katrina was, and knew that at one point Rita was as strong as Katrina was. So, that combined, with the efforts of our local officials to stress the mandatory evacuation, really helped to cut down on the loss of life. Less than 10 lives combined have been taken as a result of Rita in SW Louisiana/SE Texas.

The 2005 Hurricane season was historic in more ways that one, and it's one that no one in SW Louisiana will ever forget thanks to just one of the 28 named storms.  Can we now officially put the 2005 hurricane to rest? One can only hope, but after having Zeta form a month after the official end of hurricane season, you never know.

Most everyone knows by now, that I disagreed all along with the National Hurricane Center's initial forecast for Rita's landfall to occur in Texas between Galveston and Corpus Christi. Historically, most of the tropical storms make a right hand turn, and in the end Rita was no exception. There were other reasons that led me to believe that SW Louisiana was in trouble. For one, in the days preceding Rita, and really since Katrina the area had been under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure. We were at the tail end of our summer pattern, but the pattern that set up during the middle of September was more resemblent of July or August. Remember, it's usually around mid-September in which we start getting cold fronts again. September 2005 was different, however. The Bermuda High had built in across the area from the East, and under normal circumstances this high would help produce our typical round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. We also were influenced by the big Desert SW Ridge, that can build in from time to time in the summer months, and make it down right miserably hot with temperatures over 100 (This was what produced the hottest temperature ever recorded in Lake Charles back in the summer of 2000.) So, this put what we call in meteorology, a cap on the atmosphere. Basically, that means we had warm air aloft as well as at the surface, thus suppressing any of the cumulus clouds from building up into the afternoon thunderstorm clouds. Oddly enough, as a result of these high pressures influence the region, we had our hottest stretch of weather this summer in the 4 days preceding Rita.

In their forecast discussions on Rita as she entered the Gulf of Mexico during the week of September 19th, the National Hurricane Center was consistent on the ridge holding firmly in place across SW Louisiana, thus steering Rita to the west towards the middle Texas coast. Another point I should make here is that these storms always follow the path of least resistance. I would read their discussion at each of their updates, and then look at the latest model runs, trying to forecast Rita's landfall. It's always a nervous time when there's a storm in the Gulf, because there's always a chance it could be ours, and it has to go somewhere once in the Gulf.  From the time that Rita was developing, and intensifying in the Florida Keys, I had a feeling like I'd never had before about a storm. I really felt like something was not right about this storm, I just had that feeling of, I think this is the one. As a meteorologist, however, you don't forecast your gut feeling, and I never like to stray away from the National Hurricane Center's forecast for land falling tropical systems, as those guys usually do an excellent job. I analyzed all the model data with each run, and read other forecaster's opinions, and studied the synoptic pattern (large-scale pattern) across the country at that time. For the first few days of forecasting Rita, it was hard to get a read on what the models showed, as they did their usual flip-flop job with Rita. As each day passed I began to become increasingly concerned about a major hurricane threat in SW Louisiana, but I, along with everyone else I'm sure, never dreamed Rita would intensify so rapidly and become a category 5 like Katrina had done just 4 weeks earlier. However, the Gulf did have time to recover after Katrina, because of the unseasonably hot weather, and because the next few storms after Katrina were Atlantic storms.

While my official forecast was very close to the National Hurricane Center's, deep down, I still felt like it was going to be off-track. I based that on how the high pressures were set up at the time, and I knew where they would likely begin to break down first. In this complex situation of being influenced by 2 highs, they'd break down first right in the middle of the 2 axes, and this happened to be over SW Louisiana/SE Texas. I wasn't sure if I thought Rita would hit on the Texas side of the Sabine, or the Louisiana side, but I felt like we were going to see hurricane force winds in Lake Charles. I began telling my friends and family that I believe landfall would be between Sabine Pass and Cameron as a category 3 or 4. The Hurricane Center's forecast still called for landfall near Galveston on the 24th on the Wednesday night preceding Rita.

At that time I had just gotten off the phone with my mom, and was discussing things with her. I was awaiting the new model runs around 10 p.m. that night, and just as I feared, they had all shifted East, and also looking at Rita on satellite, it had taken more of a NW jog. By the time I went to bed that night, I was really concerned. I woke up Thursday morning to get ready for class, and my mom had been trying to get in touch with me. She couldn't get through on the cell phone, so luckily I had left my Instant Messenger connected that night, and she was able to get in touch with me through that. She told me that Calcasieu Parish was under mandatory evacuation orders, and that the storm had turned overnight. This was before I had a chance to look at the latest model data and storm information. I told her that the storm had turned more to the NW last night, before I went to bed, and the new model runs had been shifting further East like I suspected they would. I checked a few more things before I had to leave for class, and I told her, that indeed it was time to leave Lake Charles. It was hard to concentrate on anything else that Thursday.

I went on to class, but planned to head to meet mom and dad in Alexandria that afternoon. There was no way I was going to be away from my family at a time when our house might get torn up---I'm sure everyone else from the area felt the same way.

I ran back to the room after class to pack some things to head to Alexandria for the weekend, and checked the latest data once again. The models continue their Eastward shift, and now all of them had landfall between Galveston and Vermilion Bay, with Sabine Pass being the point of landfall, if you split it down the middle. Rita's wind field was larger than Katrina's, so at this point, I believed it was almost certain we'd see at least category 1 winds in Lake Charles even if landfall occurred more towards Galveston.

I headed off to Alexandria that afternoon, and would check the latest update once again when I got there. I set up shop at my aunt and uncle's house, and gave them the latest information as we waited for mom and dad's arrival. The 10 p.m. update told the story I had been feeling all week long...prepare for a direct hit from a major hurricane in SW Louisiana either late Friday or early Saturday. I checked the synoptics of the situation once again, and I said landfall could be right on the state line, that appeared to be where the weakness in the ridge was strongest. The hurricane center anticipated a storm surge of about 15' to the right of where landfall occurred. This would wipe out most of the coastal communities in Cameron Parish, and drive water up the Calcasieu Ship Channel creating storm surge of 6-8' in Lake Charles. The wind field would produce winds over 100 mph in the Lake Charles and Beaumont areas with a landfall between Sabine Pass and Cameron.

Thursday night was a long night, as I spent most of it forecasting and got very little sleep, and once I woke up on Friday I knew there'd be no sleeping again until Rita was over with, which wouldn't be til Saturday night. So, in all, I was up for about 36 hours straight. Conditions rapidly went downhill on Friday, the 23rd as Rita approached the coastline. The hurricane center continued to state landfall would occur sometime Friday night or Saturday morning in SE Texas or SW Louisiana, and a wobble one way or the other would determine which side of the state line it would occur on, but wouldn't really affect how strong the winds would be since Rita's wind field was massive. In Alexandria, over 100 miles inland, I estimated a wind gust of 85 mph as the storm made its closest approach to Alexandria around mid-morning Saturday.

Another image of Rita that will always stick in my mind is seeing FOX News broadcasting from L'Auberge du Lac at 3 a.m. (just after landfall) and not being able to see anything but all the horizontal rain. It was difficult to watch, as we've never seen weather quite like that in this city in our lifetime. Even I as a meteorologist, who is supposed to be a calm mediator during a time like that, burst into tears. I think it was just me not knowing what's happening to my house, and what will the city I've lived in, and loved all my life look like tomorrow. We lost power twice in Alexandria, so most of the time during the height of the storm my hands were tied, and my information was very limited. I did have full capacity as the eye made landfall at 2:38 a.m. near Johnson Bayou with 120 mph winds. (Cat. 3).

The preliminary report which continues to be updated by the National Weather Service here in Lake Charles shows that wind gusts over 130 mph were recorded along the Calcasieu Ship Channel. Looking at the damage around Calcasieu Parish, I'd say that that was highly possible. I'd estimate winds near 120 mph here at my house, and I am convinced a spin-off tornado from Rita's eastern eye wall traveled right down my street. The bushes in my yard look as though they were nearly sucked right out of the ground, and all the trees that were standing at the end of the street in the woods behind the fence are down, and facing different directions, as well as the trees in the field across Nelson Road. Note, that most tornadoes travel from SW to NE, and if you draw a line of the damage path through my subdivision and across Nelson Road it takes the track that a tornado would. Tornadoes are very common in the eastern side of a hurricane, and the official number of tornadoes with the eyewall of Rita is not known at this time. There were likely so many that occurred between Beaumont and Lake Charles, that the Weather Service can't possibly keep track. The eastern eyewall passed directly over the cities of Lake Charles and Sulphur, and that is where some of the strongest winds occur. The storm surge reached 6' along the shores of Lake Charles, and on the Calcasieu River in downtown Lake Charles. The Intracoastal Waterway created storm surge flooding all the way up to the Airport with 2' of water covering Gauthier Road between Nelson Road and Big Lake Road. There was total devastation from the storm surge in Cameron Parish in communities such as Holly Beach, Constance Beach, Cameron, and Johnson Bayou. More information on the storm surge and wind speeds can be found from the National Weather Service's Lake Charles site at www.srh.noaa.gov/lch

SW Louisiana shows signs of recovery from our area's worst natural disaster everyday, but it will take many years to rebuild Cameron Parish to what it once was before Rita. Here, in Lake Charles, we still have a lot of work to do to get back to what we were before the storm, but I know with the heart and determination of the great people of SW Louisiana we will do so for Lake Charles and all of our towns here in SW Louisiana. Rita is a storm none of us will ever forget, and it has once again reassured me that meteorology is where I belong. Everyone has told me what a good job I did forecasting Rita, and I appreciate that, but this was one of the few times that I wanted to be wrong as a meteorologist.

My hope is that everyone will always pay attention to the weather, and that after enduring a storm as powerful as Rita, realize how important it is to know what the weather will do. The 2005 hurricane season was one for the record books with Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma affecting the United States as major hurricanes, and no one in this state will ever forget Katrina and Rita.  Let's all hope and pray that SW Louisiana and everyone else affected by storms recently, can have a speedy recovery, and that it will be a really long time before we ever see a storm of that magnitude again. 

*Again, this is the post as it was actually produced back in late 2005.


Now, as we continue a look back at Rita, here is my forecast discussion and information from the NWS Lake Charles and National Hurricane Center from Thursday, September 22, and Friday, September 23, 2005 leading up to the onslaught of Rita.

Thursday, September 22, 2005! RITA A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE CONTINUES MOVING TOWARDS NW GULF COAST... *FORECAST TRACK AND ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SHIFTS EASTWARD.* *THREAT FOR A MAJOR HURRICANE IN SW LOUISIANA DRAMATICALLY INCREASING THIS MORNING.* *MANDATORY EVACUATIONS FOR CAMERON PARISH, AND CALCASIEU PARISH SOUTH OF I-10.* My advice to all of us is to leave the city of Lake Charles as soon as possible. It appears likely that we will see hurricane force winds in the Lake area. DO NOT PANIC! DO NOT PANIC! Prepare your home and property for the possibility of sustained hurricane force winds. Fill up your car with gas, and take as many valuables with you as you can. Take extra cash, and make arrangements for your pets! This is a life-threatening situation, and it is going to be a very catastrophic storm in the areas along and just to the right of where the eye makes landfall. This will be a storm that changes many people's lives across SE Texas and SW Louisiana. If for some reason, you can't leave your home, please make sure you have enough food and supplies for at least a week. Power outages will occur, and may last for weeks. Stay tuned to local media outlets and your local authorities! Following is the latest advisory on Hurricane Rita from the National Hurricane Center! POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE RITA OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...SLIGHT WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.  A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...FROM EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  88.3 WEST OR ABOUT 490 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT  595 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 491 MILES SSE OF LAKE CHARLES. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 170 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES RITA A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  70 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 907 MB...26.78 INCHES.  TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE SOME COASTAL FLOODING. HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH RITA ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST TO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ..INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA. AFTER RITA MOVES INLAND...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN TEXAS... AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...25.2 N... 88.3 W.  MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...170 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 907 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT. I will have more information a little this morning, due to time constraints, I must end this one! I promise you that I will update as much as I can as long as Rita is a threat, and as long as I have power. Take care and pray for the best! -Drew-

Thursday, September 22, 2005!

*CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA AIMED AT UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SW LOUISIANA COAST.*

If you haven't left the area yet, I advise you to please do so as soon as possible. This will be the absolute worst weather than any of us have ever seen. This storm will be worse than the current benchmark storm for SW Louisiana, Hurricane Audrey in 1957.
Ironically, Audrey was the last time SW Louisiana received a direct hit from a major hurricane.
Below, I will post the latest information from the National Hurricane Center, and then I will post the latest statements from the National Weather Service in Lake Charles, LA. I will conclude the update with my discussion, and what I believe will happen across the area.

EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE RITA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN....AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE.  THE WATCH IN MEXICO MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.6 WEST OR ABOUT 325 MILES...525 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 285 MILES... 460 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS LATE FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.  ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A FEW SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH QUICKLY MOVING RAINBANDS.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND. SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA.  IN ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...26.4 N... 90.6 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 921 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/031210.shtml?3day?large

Now, here's the latest statement from the NWS Lake Charles office!
HURRICANE RITA... STILL AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COASTS...

...HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTLINE...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CAMERON...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...ACADIA... VERMILION...LAFAYETTE...UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...IBERIA AND SAINT MARY PARISHES IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

...WATCHES/WARNING...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON...ORANGE...HARDIN...TYLER...JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FOR BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY...LOWER SAINT MARTIN...JEFFERSON DAVIS AND ALLEN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR VERNON... RAPIDES... AVOYELLES... EVANGELINE...SAINT LANDRY...LAFAYETTE...AND UPPER SAINT MARTIN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS...OR ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THIS TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM ASHORE ALONG THE EXTREME UPPER TEXAS COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT
HURRICANE RITA IS NOT A POINT...BUT A LARGE STORM COVERING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ITS IMPACTS WILL BE FELT NOT JUST AT THE POINT OF LANDFALL BUT FOR A LONG DISTANCE AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME DAMAGE ALONG ITS PATH. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AS A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE OR FOUR HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE FOLLOWING ARE CURRENT EVACUATION ORDERS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

NEWTON...JASPER...ORANGE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...MANDATORY FOR ENTIRE COUNTIES.

CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...MANDATORY FOR ENTIRE PARISH.

JEFF DAVIS PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND ALL OTHER LOW LYING AREAS.

VERMILION PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 14 AND PEOPLE IN ALL MOBILE HOMES OR SPECIAL MEDICAL NEEDS. VOLUNTARY FOR ALL OTHERS.

ACADIA PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 92 AND VOLUNTARY FOR OTHERS IN LOW LYING AREAS OR RESIDENTS IN LIGHT HOUSING OR MOBILE HOMES..

SAINT LANDRY PARISH...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND MOBILE HOMES.

ST. MARY PARISH...MANDATORY SOUTH OF THE INTRACOASTAL CANAL. VOLUNTARY FOR ALL OTHERS.

LOWER ST. MARTIN PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SPECIAL NEEDS PATIENTS AND VOLUNTARY FOR EVERYONE ELSE.

IBERIA PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAYS 90 AND 14.

LAFAYETTE PARISH...VOLUNTARY FOR PEOPLE IN MOBILE HOMES... LOW-LYING AREAS...AND PEOPLE WITH SPECIAL MEDICAL CONDITIONS THAT REQUIRE ELECTRICITY.

EVANGELINE PARISH...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND IN HOUSING THAT CANNOT SUSTAIN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.

BEAUREGARD PARISH...VOLUNTARY FOR PEOPLE IN LOW LYING AREAS OR IN MOBILE HOMES.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS RECOMMEND THAT INDIVIDUALS TAKE SUPPLIES TO LAST THEM FOR 3 TO 5 DAYS.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGES OF 15 TO 20 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THIS WILL BRING GULF WATERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 10 ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LAKE CHARLES AND SULPHUR LOUISIANA...AND ORANGE AND BEAUMONT TEXAS.

HIGH STORM SURGE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

VERMILION PARISH...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET. THIS WILL FLOOD LAND AROUND PECAN ISLAND AND INTRACOASTAL CITY. SECTIONS OF DELCAMBRE WILL BE UNDER WATER.

IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FEET. THIS WILL FLOOD SECTIONS OF CYPREMORT POINT AND BURNS POINT...AND LOW-LYING AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 FROM FRANKLIN TO MORGAN CITY.


NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TIDES AT:

SABINE PASS:
FRIDAY       LOW / 2:19 PM/0.1 FT  
SATURDAY     HIGH/12:39 AM/2.1 FT     LOW/3:30 PM/0.2 FT

CALCASIEU PASS:
FRIDAY       LOW/1:33 PM/0.1 FT       HIGH/11:43 PM/2.6 FT
SATURDAY     LOW/2:44 PM/0.3 FT

SOUTHWEST PASS:
FRIDAY       LOW/ 2:24 PM/0.1 FT
SATURDAY     HIGH/1:25 AM/2.1 FT      LOW/3:34 PM/0.3 FT


BASED ON THE PROJECTED STORM SURGE VALUES...MAJOR RIVER FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF THE CALCASIEU...WHERE CRESTS OF 9 TO 10 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED. MAJOR FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE MERMENTAU RIVER...WHERE CRESTS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED.

...WIND IMPACTS...
ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE BORDER PARISHES OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WILL EXPERIENCE EXTREME WINDS OF LONG DURATION AS THIS LARGE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF AND INTO EAST TEXAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT...SPREADING ASHORE ACROSS THE ATCHAFALAYA AND VERMILION BAYS AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUING INLAND AS FAR AS ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA AND JASPER TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS RITA NEARS THE COASTLINE...REACHING 50 TO 60 MPH ACROSS
MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA TO LEESVILLE LOUISIANA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NORTH AND WEST TO THE COASTLINE BY SUNDOWN. WINDS OF 70 TO 80 MPH WILL AFFECT MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AS WELL AS CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...OVER THE COURSE OF FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS OF 100 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES.

WINDS WILL VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY ONCE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL AND MOVES FURTHER NORTH INTO EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS.

SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE EXTREME WINDS AND THE LENGTHY DURATION OF THEM. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE DOWNED...WITH WIDESPREAD AND EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY. SOME STRUCTURES WILL ALSO FAIL.

...RAINFALL IMPACTS...
EXTREME RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY RITA...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 8 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AS RITA APPROACHES THE COASTLINE.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE RITA WILL BE ISSUED BY 200 AM CDT.

Here's another statement from the NWS Lake Charles...

POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL    EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ON THE JEFFERSON COUNTY COAST. THE LARGE HURRICANE WIND FIELD WILL COVER ALL OF  SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THESE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND FAR INLAND FROM THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL EXTEND INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AS WELL.

...INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT SATURDAY.

...CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE EXPECTED TO MAN MADE AND NATURAL STRUCTURES...

THE EYE WALL OF HURRICANE RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE JEFFERSON COUNTY COAST AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WITH THE EYE WALL COULD BE AROUND 130 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 165 MPH WHEN IT HITS THE COAST. DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND SIZE OF THE EYE WALL...THE EXACT LOCATION ALONG THE UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST MAY CHANGE SLIGHTLY BETWEEN NOW AND SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE FOLLOWING DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE EYE WALL OF A HURRICANE WITH THIS STRENGTH.

HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO ROOF AND WALLS. DESTRUCTION MAY OCCUR TO HOMES WITH GABLED ROOFS...WITH THE WIND LIFTING THEM OFF. MORE THAN HALF OF ALL INDUSTRIAL
BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED...OTHERS WILL HAVE PARTIAL ROOF AND WALL DAMAGE. WOOD FRAMED GARDEN APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED...AND OTHERS WILL HAVE PARTIAL ROOF AND WALL FAILURES.

HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY. MOST WINDOWS WILL BE BLOWN OUT...AND MODERATE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS...SOME PIECES GREATER THAN 50 POUNDS...WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS ARE AT GREAT RISK FOR INJURY OR DEATH.

ELECTRICITY AND WATER WILL BE UNAVAILABLE FOR DAYS...AND PERHAPS WEEKS...AFTER THE STORM PASSES. THE MAJORITY OF TREES WILL BE SNAPPED AND UPROOTED...MOST COMMON AMONG THOSE OF SMALL AND MEDIUM SIZE. CITRUS ORCHARDS WILL BE DESTROYED AS WILL ALL NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS. ESTABLISHED GROUND CROPS WILL HAVE DAMAGE...WITH UP TO ONE HALF OF FIELDS NO LONGER ARABLE. LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE CRITICALLY INJURED OR KILLED.

OTHER AREAS A LARGE DISTANCE FROM THE ACTUAL EYE WALL WILL SEE AT-LEAST HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AROUND 75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 90 MPH. THESE AREAS CAN EXPECT THE FOLLOWING TYPES OF DAMAGE.

...VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE...
...DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES LIKELY...

...STRUCTURAL DAMAGE...
THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED. THOSE THAT SURVIVE WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED OFF. MANY WILL BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...
GUTTERS...AS WELL AS BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL.

PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS...ESPECIALLY TO THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM COVERINGS. OLDER LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN OFF...AS WELL AS
RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF ALL GLASS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL CAUSE DAMAGE...INJURY...AND POSSIBLE FATALITIES.

...NATURAL DAMAGE...
ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES WILL BECOME UPROOTED OR SNAP. NEARLY ALL LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP...AND MAJOR DAMAGE IS EXPECTED TO CITRUS ORCHARDS...INCLUDING NUMEROUS UPROOTED TREES. BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND
ONE HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED...MOST COMMON WHERE THE GROUND IS SATURATED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS WILL BE DAMAGED.

Now, here's my discussion...

It can't be stressed enough, if you live in any of the areas that have issued a mandatory evacuation, or a voluntary or recommended evacuation, and you can leave, plase do so. This is a very very serious and deadly situation. None of us have ever seen a storm of this magnitude here in SW Louisiana. There will be widespread severe damage here in the city of Lake Charles from winds over 100 mph. We also have to worry about storm surge flooding here in town, as the surge along and to the East of the center will be around 25 feet or greater. This will send the storm surge all the way up to I-10 and the National Weather Service expects flooding from storm surge in Lake Charles, Sulphur, Beaumont, and Orange. There could be over 5 feet of water in downtown Lake Charles.

This will be a similar situation to Hurricane Katrina 3 weeks ago on the Mississippi Gulf Coast. As a general rule of thumb, the storm surge with Hurricane Audrey reached as far inland as Lake Charles Regional Airport. This storm surge will literally wipe the towns along the coast off the map. Numerous trees will be downed or uprooted across the entire area. Expect widespread power outages across the entire area as well, for days and probably weeks, maybe up to a month in some areas. Food and water supplies will be greatly affected, and it will be very hard to find these essentials for quite some time. There will be gasoline shortages, as well as long-term communication disruptions across the area. This will by far be the worst natural disaster ever to strike SW Louisiana.

It is very common in tropical systems to see tornadoes on the right hand side of this storm. We will begin to see the threat for tornadoes Friday afternoon, and this threat may continue through at least Monday across much of the state. This storm will likely stall out somewhere in East or NE Texas or Western Louisiana. This will result in catastrophic flooding in some areas, as the moisture is just pumped over our area. Rainfall amounts as the hurricane makes landfall will likely be 10-15" across Southern sections of the area, and 5-10" across northern portions. This is just the rainfall totals as Rita approaches the coast, and moves inland. Some locations may wind up with over 30" of rain. The flooding in itself will have the potential to cause a prolific death toll as well. Many parts of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks, so plan on staying wherever you have evacuated to for at least a few weeks.

This is a storm that will affect everyone's life, and it will change the landscape of SW Louisiana forever. Tropical Storm force winds begin to affect SW Louisiana from SE to NW on Friday morning. These winds of 39-73 mph will begin being felt in the Acadiana area by sunrise Friday, and in the Lake Charles area by mid morning Friday, and by noon in SE Texas. By Friday evening, hurricane force winds will be approaching the coast. I think that hurricane force winds will reach Lake Charles around midnight Saturday or a little sooner, and last til around noon Saturday. On the current forecast track, I expect winds of category 3 strength in Lake Charles, around 120 mph. These winds will be much higher down along the coast at Cameron where winds up to 150 mph are possible with higher gusts. Hurricane force winds could be felt as far north as Alexandria. Sustained tropical storm force winds may extend all the way into Southern Arkansas. There will be power outages and tons of downed trees as far inland as I-20, not to mention the damage the flooding could do. Remember, the threat for tornadoes! These tornadoes will be rain-wrapped, and will occur with little or no advanced warning. You likely won't see the tornado at all, and will only hear it when it is right on top of you. I expect the Storm Prediction Center to issue a tornado watch for the entire area by Friday afternoon. Like I said, the tornado threat may continue into Monday. These systems tend to spin off more tornadoes as they wind down.

That will do it for now, I will more updates during the day Friday. I'm gonna try and get some sleep! I don't think I'll be getting any sleep for the next couple days! Not many of us will! This is the proverbial calm before the storm! At this point, I hope everyone has left the area, and made all the preparations to their homes and property. All I can recommend at this point, is prayer! There's nothing stronger than the power of prayer, and our fate lies in the hands of God! Take care everyone, please leave the area, be safe, and God bless all of us facing this catastrophic hurricane!

-Drew-


It wouldn't be a look back at Rita without some videos and pictures:


These pictures are a perfect illustration of what storm surge can do and did. The surge is the most devastating aspect of the storm along the coast. 




Holly Beach, LA before and after Rita.

Another image of Holly Beach, LA after Rita

Now, courtesy of The National Weather Service here are some pictures from the extensive damage Rita caused in Lake Charles:

 

For a look at tons more pictures of damage around the area, log on to the National Weather Service Lake Charles Hurricane Rita page: NWS Rita Page

To close out our look back at Rita: SW Louisiana's Storm here's links to some  YouTube videos. 

A Video Set to Music That Shows Damage from across the Area including SE Texas and SW Louisiana 

Coverage of Rita on The Weather Channel  

Watch as Weather Channel Meteorologist Jeff Morrow reports live from Sulphur before the worst of Rita arrives 

In closing, here's a bit more on Rita:

Rita was a historical storm in every sense of the word. At peak intensity, Rita became the most intense storm ever recorded in the Gulf of Mexico with top winds of 180 mph and a pressure of 897 mb. Rita set a record for rapid intensification as the pressure dropped 70 mb. in 24 hours...from 967 mb. at 10p.m. on Tuesday September 20 to 897 mb. at 10p.m. on Wednesday September 21. This pressure reading also made Rita the third most intense hurricane on record in the entire Atlantic Basin at the time. Rita strengthened from a tropical storm to a category 5 hurricane in about 36 hours, and maintained category 5 strength for about 18 hours. 

Rita caused the largest evacuation of the Gulf coast in history at the time. Most of SW Louisiana was uninhabitable for several weeks after the storm with authorities officially keeping Calcasieu Parish closed into the first full week of October. Cameron and Vermilion Parishes was uninhabitable for much longer due to the widespread destruction from the storm surge. Power and other essentials didn't return for much of the area until early October. The flooding from the storm was a bigger issue than freshwater flooding from heavy rainfall, because the summer of 2005 was very dry, and widespread drought conditions were in place across the area when Rita hit. The entire area saw 8-12" of rainfall with Rita, but this didn't lead to any additional flooding problems. While no official count has been given on the number of tornadoes from Rita across SW Louisiana, Rita was responsible for the largest number of spin-off tornadoes from any tropical cyclone, and the largest September tornado outbreak in history as well. The National Hurricane Center reports that at least 90 tornadoes occurred as a result of Rita, and this number is likely higher since the count is unknown across our area. Rita is monumental in that nearly every structure across the area experienced some sort of damage whether it was just a few shingles missing off a roof or complete destruction, it affected all of us, and for many of us our lives will never be the same. It is a crying shame that Rita is so forgotten by so many. Those of us here will never forget.

Hurricane Rita is certainly by far the worst natural disaster ever experienced in our area, and will now be considered the benchmark storm for the area surpassing Hurricane Audrey from 1957. The 2005 was historical in many ways, and while there may have been 28 named storms, as far as those of here in Louisiana are concerned there was really only 2. It is a wonderful blessing that there was very minimal loss of life in our area from this most destructive storm. Some of this can certainly be attributed to Katrina 3 and a half weeks earlier, and I believe had Katrina not happened, many many people would have stayed home, and the loss of life would have been far greater than it was. SW Louisiana is a great place to live, and it is and always will be home. The hearts and generosity of the people of SW Louisiana are bigger than anywhere else in the world, and in our darkest moments neighbors helped neighbors, and we all worked together to get our lives back in order. Just another example of why I'm proud to live in SW Louisiana, and will always call it home. I offer my prayers and thoughts to all of you who are still recovering from Rita, and I hope that you will all join me in praying for continued protection from these very serious storms in the future. God bless all of you and God bless SW Louisiana and SE Texas!!!

-DM-