I hope everyone had a blessed Christmas, and enjoyed time with your family and friends. As we head towards New Years, I am back at it here on the blog, and before I get to the business at hand, just a reminder that I will not post on Thursday/Friday (New Years Eve or New Years Day). I plan on taking the weekend off as well, but as of right now I will be posting on Saturday and Sunday due to an impinging Arctic outbreak. The complete details follow in the discussion.
Also, it's time to count down the Top 10 Weather Events of 2009, and as we end the decade of the 2000s (can you believe it?), it's also time to reveal the Top 10 Weather Events of the 2000s. I will do this over the course of the next few days. Many of you can probably guess what the #1 weather event of the 2000s is here. When compiling this list, I have tried my best to narrow it down to events only significant to the forecast area. Maybe, as time allows our the first part of 2010, I will recap the top weather events elsewhere of the year and decade. I also will rehash the Christmas Eve Tornado Outbreak later this week.
One other reminder before I get to the forecast discussion...the blog will be in holiday/severe weather mode through Sunday. That is, only the forecast discussion,zone forecasts, and the special items discussed above will be displayed. All other features of the blog will return on Monday, January 4. Happy New Year!!!
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...An already exceptionally wet year will be getting wetter as we approach the end of the year and the decade! The pesky, persistent pattern of the fall/winter of 2009-2010 continues to be a nemesis with the next in a never-ending series of Gulf lows ready to traverse the Northern Gulf waters. An area wide freeze occurred this morning with temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s as skies were clear with near calm winds to start the day. Conditions rapidly deteriorated through the day as clouds increased as Western Gulf cyclogenesis occurred. This low combined with a Northern stream upper level impulse sliding into Texas has resulted in widespread rainfall across Texas with snow on the Northern edge of the precip shield from near Dallas into Oklahoma. The initial area of rain with the advancing short wave has moved through SW Louisiana as of this writing, but it will redevelop late tonight as the low gets cranked up. It will mostly be a light, nagging nuisance rain tonight and early Wednesday, but it will be heavy at times Wednesday as the low traverses the coastal waters from SW to NE. This low will track much closer to the coast than its predecessor, so you can expect much more in the way of rainfall activity. Rainfall amounts will average 1-2" with isolated amounts up to 4" possible through Wednesday night. It will take pretty much all day for the rain to exit stage right as the low pulls away. Some improvement will be noted by the afternoon as the low pushes towards SE Louisiana. No severe weather will be expected for this short term period tonight through Wednesday. The unseasonably cool weather will continue for Wednesday with highs in the mid 50s for most locations with the rain throughout the day. Marked improvement occurs by Wednesday night with drier air entraining into the area in the wake of the departing low. A chance of rain will be maintained into early Wednesday night before skies clear overnight. Lows for Wednesday night/Thursday morning will be in the 40s area wide.
New Year's Eve on Thursday should be a nice day as an area of high pressure moves in behind the departing low. Temperatures will reach normal to above normal levels in the lower 60s, but this will be a short-lived occurrence as at this same time another strong cold front will be waiting in the wings in the continued NW flow aloft at the surface. This front will surge through the area late Thursday evening into Thursday night. It will be a quick mover, and a moisture starved front, so rain chances are limited ahead of this boundary. I certainly wouldn't rule out the forcing associated with the front being able to generate a few showers, but all in all just some clouds are expected as the boundary quickly pushes into the Gulf of Mexico. An embedded short wave directly behind this front in the continuing NW flow aloft will be dropping into Southern Arkansas, and this may conjure up a few snow flakes for the Northern half of the state New Year's Eve night. No such luck here, just clear and cold. New Year's Eve temperatures such fall into the mid 30s by sunrise New Year's Day. A wind chill in the 20s is expected with clear skies. New Year's Day will be a clear and cold day. After the cold morning start, afternoon highs are only expected to reach the upper 40s at best. The new year and decade will start on a rather benign note.
More nice weather is in the offing for Saturday as high pressure dominates. Sunny skies are expected, and will remain cold with another freeze expected nearly area wide. Lows will range from the upper 20s to the lower 30s, this will be similar to Tuesday morning across the area. Afternoon highs will fare a bit better reaching the lower 50s. The first weekend of 2010 should be a dry one, but cold. Sunday looks uneventful at least to start out with temperatures again near the freezing mark, and highs in the low to mid 50s underneath sunny skies. A very interesting end of the forecast period is shaping up beginning with Sunday night. A very strong Arctic cold front will be pushing through Louisiana Sunday night, and it may conjure up a few showers during the evening ahead of it, but nothing major as once again it will be the forcing itself that generates any light rain with such a dry air mass already in place. Temperatures Sunday night will bottom out in the low to mid 30s with a quick chance of showers in the evening before clearing overnight. It will become very windy as well with NNW winds over 20 mph at times. The end of the forecast period is interesting to say the least. It will certainly be cold, but it is the prospects of precipitation that make this a difficult forecast. I won't be specific at this point, but models indicate a continually active Southern Stream. The air mass over the Gulf coast at this time will be supportive for frozen precipitation, it's just a matter of will there be any sort of low or upper level feature to generate moisture. This is something that bears watching in the coming days, but the players on the field for the first full work week of the new year. For now, I will leave out mention of precipitation in the day 6-7 period, but indicate Partly Cloudy skies and very cold temperatures with hard freeze conditions likely by Tuesday morning. Highs will struggle to make it to 40 degrees both Monday and Tuesday, and with the gusty winds continuing wind chills will be a factor as well. Precipitation or not, next week will be cold, and there is the possibility that if we get the direct impact of this Arctic air mass, it will likely be some of the coldest air we've seen in years around these parts. Stay tuned!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 43/56 42/62 37/48 60 100 20 0 0 0
LFT 42/55 41/63 36/47 70 100 20 0 0 0
BPT 44/57 43/64 38/49 60 100 20 0 0 0
AEX 40/53 39/58 33/45 60 100 20 0 0 0
POE 41/54 39/59 34/46 60 100 20 0 0 0
ARA 44/58 43/65 39/50 70 100 20 0 0 0
Tonight...Cloudy with rain redeveloping & becoming likely towards morning. Low 43. NE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Wednesday...Rain. Heavy at times. 1-2" of rainfall expected with isolated higher amounts to 4" possible. High 56. NE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 100%.
Wednesday Night...Cloudy with a 20% chance of rain early. Clearing overnight. Low 42. North wind 10 mph.
New Year's Eve Day...Sunny and Mild. High 62. Light SW wind.
New Year's Eve Night...Partly Cloudy until midnight, then Clear. Colder. Low 37. Becoming Windy. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
New Year's Day...Sunny and Cold. High 48. North wind 10-15 mph.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Wednesday
12-30-09
Low: 43
High: 56
Precip: 100%
Wind: NE 10-15
Thursday
12-31-09
New Year's Eve
Low: 42
High: 62
Precip: 0%
Wind: SW 5-10
Friday
1-1-10
New Year's Day
Low: 37
High: 48
Precip: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Saturday
1-2-10
Low: 30
High: 50
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 10
Sunday
1-3-10
Low: 32
High: 53
Precip: 20%
Wind: NE/NNW 15-25
Monday
1-4-10
Low: 29
High: 39
Precip: 20%
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 15-25
Tuesday
1-5-10
Low: 23
High: 36
Precip: 20%
Wind: N 10-15
W.C.: 15-25
...Marine Forecast...
*Small Craft Advisory.*
Tonight...East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight. A slight chance of rain.
Wednesday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Rain and isolated thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night...West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight. A chance of rain.
Thursday...North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday Night...North winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Friday...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
No comments:
Post a Comment