SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The latest in the never ending series of Gulf lows has been plaguing the area all day with the dreary, drab December drizzly drips. The low is in the process of exiting Eastward tonight as the Subtropical Jet pushes it along. This low has been a slow mover with rain persisting for the entire day since before sunrise. Rainfall totals have been right on track with the forecast produced last night (up to 1") with isolated higher amounts (up to 2"). The heaviest rains were closest to the coast, with lighter amounts north of the I-10 corridor. The surface low tracked through the coastal waters, and the worst of the weather remained along and South of the low as it rode the stationary boundary. The low will continue tracking to the East tonight, and move into Florida, likely producing severe weather and a tornado threat overnight into Friday. Snow will occur o the Northern edge of the low beneath the colder air over the Appalachian Mountains of Virginia and the Carolinas. Meanwhile, back home, our weather will be much improved heading into Friday. The rain is nearly over with in the Lake Charles area, and all of SE Texas is in the clear as far as rain is concerned. The rain will end in the Lake Charles area around 10p.m. or shortly thereafter, and end for Acadiana by midnight. The shield of rain covers nearly the entire state of Louisiana at this time. This nuisance rain and continued CAA on the North side of the advancing Gulf low, kept temperatures quite chilly today with temperatures in the 40s all day. This is where we remain at present with fairly uniform temperatures across the region in the mid 40s. The rain will come to an end overnight, and clearing skies will occur after midnight. Low clouds will persist through much of the night, but the clearing line is advancing to the East. Lows will be in the mid 30s towards Alexandria to the lower to middle 40s near the coast. It will continue to be breezy at times with the associated pressure differences behind the low.
High pressure builds in for Friday, and this will finally bring us some very welcomed sunshine. It has been a solid week since we've seen much in the way of sunshine, but this will happen on Friday. A few clouds are possible early as the wrap-around stratus deck hangs tough overnight. The air mass in place isn't exceptionally cold, and with the sunshine in place on Friday it will turn out to be a seasonably cool afternoon. It will feel great after it didn't get out of the 40s today. Expect afternoon highs in the mid to upper 50s. It finally appears as though we'll see more than one day of dry weather as the benign weather pattern continues through the pre-Christmas weekend. The Friday night period will be clear and cold with similar readings to tonight. Saturday will be beautiful as well, but some clouds are possible as an Arctic front moves through around midday. This front will not provide any rainfall!!! The only noticeable weather feature will be the aforementioned clouds, and an increase in wind behind the Arctic front. The air mass behind this front will be modified, but certainly chilly enough to make it feel like it should feel with Christmas approaching. Saturday's high temperatures will be knocked back a category or two as a result of the front. Lower 50s should suffice. A cold night is in store for the Saturday night/Sunday morning period with a light freeze expected across the area. Upper 20s should occur for the northern portion of the area, while temperatures near 30 to 32 are expected along I-10. The coast should avoid a freeze, but it will sill be cold nonetheless. A strong high pressure remains in place behind the cold front and departing low. Sunday will remain on the cool side with highs topping out just below seasonable values in the middle 50s, but it will be a beautiful day, and this works out perfectly for a great weekend to close out astronomical fall.
Monday marks the official first day of astronomical winter, and it will like it. Another light freeze is projected for this time frame, and some frost is likely on Monday across the area as winds go nearly calm with the controlling high moving right over head. The clear skies will prevail, but a few high clouds may begin to stream into the area Monday as the Subtropical Jet Stream get active once again. Benign weather prevails for our area, but out West another vigorous trough develops, and the beginnings of a major winter storm will be taking shape. Temperatures should be close to seasonable Monday. Clouds will increase on Tuesday, but it should remain dry. A return flow will commence in earnest as the sharpening trough out West strengthens and energizes both branches of the Jet Stream. Clouds will increase as moisture returns from the Gulf. A robust warm up should occur with temperatures likely reaching above normals levels for the mid-week period, but this is going to be very short-lived. Rain chances should remain absent from the forecast on Tuesday as the atmosphere remains capped with the trough still lagging to the West a bit.
Showers may break out across the landscape of SW Louisiana and SE Texas overnight Tuesday as the trough and its associated cold front approaches. Convergence will increase, and a surface low may form over just East of the Rockies as we head into Wednesday. This will get the mid-week potential winter storm cranked up over the Rockies. Rain is likely on Wednesday, and some thunderstorms can't be ruled out as models indicate plenty of instability in place. It is too early to determine if severe weather will impact the region. The projected surface low's future track will be a determining factor in this. I certainly believe this possibility could come to fruition given the strengthening El Nino, and the tendency of the forecast models to underestimate the strengthen of this type of system in an El Nino year. The current 0Z Friday model run shows a tracking surface low from near Oklahoma City Wednesday afternoon to near El Dorado, AR by Wednesday afternoon. This would be a track that would put the forecast area in a favorable spot for severe weather. Wednesday is still far enough away that each model run is going to show great parity, and it is not so important to look at each model run per se, but look for trends and signals to understand what may happen synoptically. There is much consistency that the next significant chance of rain and the next front will affect the region at mid-week. The other aspects that go with that, will be exacted as the event draws near. The cold front on Wednesday will be the strongest so far this season, and give us an all-access pass to some true Arctic air. Rain chances should be present for much of the day Wednesday, and it could be quite mild ahead of the Arctic blast.
Christmas Eve is now the end of the forecast period, and our first real crack at actual numbers for Christmas Day will come tomorrow. For Christmas Eve, a complex weather situation will remain in place across the Southern half of the U.S. The surface low and associated cold front will be pulling away from the Gulf coast, but at this time there will be ample wrap-around moisture in place. This will keep a chance of some light rain in the forecast for at least the morning hours on Thursday (Christmas Eve). Rain should be the precipitation type for our area, but areas to the North through the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley will likely see a significant winter storm, most likely snow. This system will likely have a big impact on travel plans for Christmas across a large portion of the country. You probably don't care if you are staying here for Christmas, and the snow associated with this system isn't going to be a factor here. For us, it looks like a classic case of the moisture is gone before it gets cold enough to snow, but like I said each model run looks different at this point, and this will be the case into the event is in the short-term. This is just the nature of our forecast models. The screaming message is much colder air in time for Christmas, with a very slight possibility of other excitement associated with it. I know many of you are wishing for snow for Christmas, as am I, but it just doesn't seen likely at this point. The overall pattern for December 2009 is one that favors a significant Gulf coast winter event. All the players are on the field, but can they all play in the game at the same time? We will know much more about this system next week. One way or the other, this will be a significant storm system leading up to Christmas. For now, the official forecast for Christmas Eve is sharply colder with rain ending along with very windy conditions on the back side of the departing low and cold front. Clouds should hang tough during the day. It could be a day where temperatures are falling during the day. For now, this is not reflected, but I certainly reflect much colder weather with lows in the upper 30s and highs in the mid 40s. The coldest weather with this Arctic blast looks to come on Christmas Eve just in time for Santa Claus to visit SW Louisiana, and into Christmas Day. A hard freeze looks imminent for Christmas Day, so at least if there's no snow, it'll feel like Christmas. It's just out of reach of the forecast period at this time, but if I displayed temperatures for the day it would indicate low to mid 20s for the low and near 40 for the high. Christmas Day looks dry with cold sunshine, but some high clouds can't be ruled out with the Subtropical Jet Stream is close proximity. Looking further into long range territory beyond Christmas...an overall much colder than average looks to stay the course through New Years as a series of Arctic blasts reach the Gulf coast. Will there be any mischief during this time? Stay tuned!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 40/57 39/53 31/55 40 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 41/55 40/52 30/54 70 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 42/56 41/54 32/56 20 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 37/53 35/50 28/52 60 0 0 0 0 0
POE 38/53 36/50 29/52 30 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 43/58 40/54 32/55 80 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Cloudy with a 40% chance of rain before midnight. Rain ending with skies clearing in the early morning hours. Low 40. North wind 10-15 mph.
Friday...Sunny. High 57. North wind 10 mph.
Friday Night...Clear. Low 39. Light North wind.
Saturday...Sunny and Windy. High 53. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Saturday Night...Clear and Cold with a light freeze. Low 31. North wind 10 mph.
Sunday...Sunny. High 56. North wind 5-10 mph.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
12-18-09
Low: 40
High: 57
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
Saturday
12-19-09
Low: 39
High: 53
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 15-20
Sunday
12-20-09
Low: 31
High: 55
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Monday
12-21-09
Winter Solstice
Low: 32
High: 57
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Tuesday
12-22-09
Low: 41
High: 60
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Wednesday
12-23-09
Low: 48
High: 64
Rain: 70%
Wind: SSE/SSW 15-20
Thursday
12-24-09
Christmas Eve
Low: 37
High: 45
Rain: 30%
Wind: NNW 20-25
W.C.: 20s
...Marine Forecast...
*Small Craft Advisory until 6a.m.Saturday.*
Tonight...North winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A chance of rain.
Friday...North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Friday Night...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday...North winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Saturday Night...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
...Tide Data...
Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 9:25a.m. 9:21p.m.
High: 5:24a.m. 11:41p.m.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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