TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 12Z (6a.m.) Thursday...

The much advertised severe weather threat is unraveling tonight. A Tornado Watch has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center until 12Z (6a.m.) Thursday. Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity have developed across the area, and an upward trend will continue for the next few hours as the vigorous storm system brings its cold front through the area overnight towards sunrise Christmas Eve. All modes of severe weather are still possible. A line of showers and thunderstorms is organizing West of Houston at this hour, and another line will sweep through along the front around dawn Thursday. The Tornado Watch includes the following locations in the forecast area in SE Texas and SW Louisiana: Jefferson County including Beaumont and Port Arthur, Orange County including Orange, Hardin County including Lumberton, Tyler County including Woodville, Jasper County including Jasper, and Newton County including Newton...Calcasieu Parish including Lake Charles and Sulphur, Cameron Parish including Cameron, Beauregard Parish including DeRidder, and Vernon Parish including Leesville-Fort Polk.

The driving force behind this weather maker is a strong ULL and negatively tilted trough. The ULL is still hanging back well to our West as you can see by this water vapor imagery.

The ULL is clearly visible back over the Desert SW into West Texas. As the system is energized tonight by the Jet Stream it will accelerate off to the East, and push through our area around daybreak to mid-day Thursday. The worst of the weather should move into the Golden Triangle between 4 and 5a.m. and into the Lake Charles area between 5 and 6 a.m. The remainder of the forecast area isn't currently under the Tornado Watch, but this will likely change as the night progresses. The MCS will be advancing into Acadiana between 8-9p.m. Conditions will vastly improve by noon Christmas Eve across the area as drier and colder air moves in behind the strong system. Temperatures will fall from the 60s overnight tonight into the 40s Thursday afternoon. A prolonged cold period will be established in the wake of this system, and I believe we won't see 60 degrees again until after New Years. Stay tuned for more!

-DM-