SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...What a dreary day with the cold weather and nagging light rain. At least we had the Saints to think about to keep us smiling on a dreary, drab December day. The start of meteorological winter certainly felt like winter as high temperatures struggled to reach the 50 degree threshold. Rainfall amounts over land were generally subdued around an inch or less. The heavier rain remained over the Gulf of Mexico in closer proximity to a Gulf low which was lifting to the NE traversing the cold front which came through on Monday. We were in a bit of a break from this evening until around 10p.m in SW Louisiana, but rain has began moving back into the area from SE Texas as the dynamic storm system continues affecting the area. The surface low is over the Northern Gulf waters off the coast of South Central Louisiana. It will continuing moving to the NE sending the frontal boundary Northward as a warm front across the SE U.S. A severe weather will unfold across this region later tonight into Wednesday as the warm sector pulls inland ahead of the surface low. We won't have to be concerned with a severe weather threat, but we will certainly contend with more rain overnight into Wednesday morning as the back side of this dynamic system moves through. A strong upper level cut-off low over West Texas continues moving Eastward tonight, and disturbances (short waves) out ahead of this ULL are rotating through the area bringing another round of rain. There is enough instability present in the upper levels for some rumbles of thunder overnight, but since the entire forecast area is in the cool sector and enveloped by stable air no severe weather is expected. Rainfall could be heavy at times. An additional 1-2" of rain is possible overnight before rain tapers off Wednesday. By far the heaviest rain should bypass the forecast area, and be in closer proximity to the surface low to our East. The whole system will work across the forecast area as we go through the night, and conditions will begin to improve once we get on the back side of this ULL. Windy and cold conditions will remain as well with the Gulf storm controlling the weather. Expect overnight lows to be in the low to mid 40s with the exception of Acadiana where some warmer air has moved in as the low progresses towards the coast. Acadiana should see upper 40s to near 50 for lows. Winds will be gusty out of the NE up to 20 mph at times, and even stronger near the coast and offshore. Small Craft Advisory conditions are hoisted for the offshore waters with strong winds and rough seas expected through Wednesday. Another issue with this storm is coastal flooding. Some minor coastal flooding is possible near high tide in response to a tight pressure gradient and strong E to NE winds. This threat will continue through Wednesday morning. Storm total rainfall amounts by the time everything is over on Wednesday will be 2-4" with the highest amounts across lower Acadiana.
It is this next system that could bring some excitement. What I am about to say should be taken with a grain of salt, and you should know that this can completely change in the coming days, but there is enough consistency right now to say this. As we head into Friday, model consistency is increasing on the idea of another strong upper level disturbance (short wave) developing in response to a very active Jet Stream, and a conglomeration of the Polar Jet and the Subtropical Jet over Texas. There is some wonderment about another Gulf low forming, but either way, forecast models hint at sufficient moisture to warrant chances of precipitation. I said precipitation because at the same time this is going on even colder air will be filtering into the region as an amplified trough digs into the Southern Plains. The associated upper level low will also generates its own cold air as it moves across Texas. Based on the current models, SNOW is forecast to develop across Central and South Texas Friday morning, and as the disturbances get embedded into the Jet Stream it will slide Eastward during the day Friday bringing an increase in clouds initially, and then precip chances by Friday afternoon through Friday night. Temperatures will already be cold to start the day Friday, but likely above freezing with the possible exception of the Northernmost portions of the forecast area. I am forecasting mid to upper 30s for now for Friday minimums. Temperatures won't warm up much with continued CAA and the expectant cloud cover, and as the precipitation overspreads the area temperatures will begin to fall as dynamic cooling processes take effect in response to the cold core upper low. What this means for us is that light rain is expected beginning Friday afternoon. That part is certain, if we do indeed get precip Friday it will start as rain. However, as the colder air works into the area and the precip continues rain could mix with sleet before sunset, and then mix with SNOW, yes snow, after sunset, before turning over to all snow overnight as the low passes overhead. This would bring some excitement to the forecast area, if this does indeed occur. It is too early and too difficult to be specific about the exact type of precipitation, and amounts. If the trend continues and my confidence increases tomorrow into Thursday, then I will begin to be more specific about winter weather possibilities. For now, I will insert the magical "s" word into the forecast for the Friday/Friday night period, but not hint at any accumulations, and just broadbrush it saying rain and snow mix. If snow does occur in any form, it would be the earliest such occurrence for snow in SW Louisiana. It would surpass the record set just last year when snow fell on December 11. Stay tuned, but don't get your hopes up! The whole thing could be gone tomorrow. As for temperatures, expect a freeze on Friday night into Saturday morning with upper 20s to lower 30s across the area. This would be the first significant freeze across the forecast area. Only isolated locations have reached the freezing mark so far. A freeze seems likely whether we get precipitation or not. The Friday system should be a quick mover, but there are the usual timing issues, and it could arrive a bit later than currently suggested.
As we get into the weekend, the cold weather stays in place especially for Saturday. Whatever happens on Friday will be winding down Saturday morning. A few lingering flurries are possible, but the precip should be over with for the most part. Skies will clear out as another in a series of high pressures builds in. Most of the day will be Sunny, but it will remain cold with highs only reaching the mid 40s. A dry period persists for Saturday night and Sunday, and only a modest warm up begins Sunday. Another cold night with lows around freezing is in store for Saturday night. Sunday should feature plenty of sunshine, but still a jacket will be required after church with highs in the mid 50s. A return flow commences Sunday, and winds will kick around to off the Gulf once again that afternoon. Sunday night will be dry but warmer with minimums in the 40s.
The extremely progressive El Nino pattern continues into next week, and yet another chance of rain returns for Monday and Tuesday. Another cold front, although one with air more Pacific in nature, will be approaching. Also, minor perturbations in the Subtropical Jet Stream which is a very active entity in an El Nino pattern will continue to move across the landscape of the forecast area, and generate rain chances. I don't see anything overly excessive rainfall or severe thunderstorm wise at this point, but we'll investigate that further as we get closer. It is prudent to dismiss tonight's system first, and then hone in on the potential winter weather for Friday. Temperatures in the Monday/Tuesday time frame will be close to normal for early December.
This Date in History: December 1, 1896...Wow! What a change in temperature! The temperature at Kipp, MT rose an astonishing 30 degrees in only 7 minutes, and 80 degrees in a matter of a few hours. A 30" snow cover was completely melted away in about half a days time.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 45/53 37/54 34/41 100 40 0 0 0 30
LFT 47/54 36/53 35/43 100 60 0 0 0 30
BPT 44/55 38/54 36/40 80 30 0 0 0 30
AEX 41/47 33/52 31/38 100 40 0 0 0 30
POE 41/48 34/52 32/38 100 40 0 0 0 30
ARA 48/54 39/55 37/43 100 70 0 0 0 30
Tonight...Cloudy with rain and a few thunderstorms likely. Rain heavy at times. Low 45. NNE wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 100%.
Wednesday...Cloudy with a 40% chance of rain in the morning. Decreasing Cloudiness, becoming Sunny during the afternoon. Cool. High 53. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Wednesday Night...Clear and Cold w/ Patchy Frost. Low 37. North wind 10 mph.
Thursday...Sunny and Cool. High 54 North wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday Night...Increasing Cloudiness and Cold. Low 34. Light NE wind.
Friday...Mostly Cloudy and Cold with a 30% chance of rain possibly mixed with sleet and snow in the afternoon. No accumulation expected. High 41. NNW wind 10-15 mph and gusty. Wind chill readings 25-35.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Wednesday
12-2-09
Low: 45
High: 53
Rain: 40% AM
Wind: NNW 15-20
Thursday
12-3-09
Low: 37
High: 54
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Friday
12-4-09
Low: 34
High: 42
Precip: 30% PM Rain/Snow Mix
Wind: NNW 10-15
W.C.: 25-35
Saturday
12-5-09
Low: 29
High: 45
Precip: 20% AM Flurries
Wind: NNW 10-15
W.C.: 15-25
Sunday
12-6-09
Low: 32
High: 54
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 5-10
Monday
12-7-09
Low: 44
High: 61
Rain: 20%
Wind: SE 10-15
Tuesday
12-8-09
Low: 51
High: 64
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 10-15
...Marine Forecast....
*Small Craft Advisory.*
Tonight...North winds around 20 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Patchy dense fog with visibility 1 nm or less. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms late in the evening...then a chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday...West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 5 to 6 feet in the afternoon. A slight chance of rain.
Wednesday Night...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 5 to 6 feet subsiding to 4 to 6 feet after midnight.
Thursday...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet.
Thursday Night...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 feet.
Friday...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. A chance of rain.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 8:02a.m. 8:50p.m.
High: 3:54a.m. 10:44p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
171.36'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
Low: 47
Normal Low: 46
Record Low: 23-1896
High: 50
Normal High: 66
Record High: 82-1912
Rainfall
Today: 1.22"
Month to Date: 1.22"
Normal Month to Date: 0.15"
Year to Date: 65.76"
Normal Year to Date: 52.74"
Record: 1.88"-1955
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:52a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 5:12p.m.
Wednesday Hunting Times: 6:22a.m.-5:42p.m.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
Drew,
ReplyDeleteGreat forecast! Even I could understand it :)! So excited for the snow!!!
Shantele