The Top 10 Weather Events of 2009 and of the 2000s will be posted in a separate post.
This is the final blog post of 2009 at least as far as the forecast discussion et. al is concerned. As we close out 2009...the year and the decade of the 2000s, join me for a look back at the year and decade that was in the world of weather. As I stated last night, when compiling the list I have tried to keep the events as local as possible. I will begin posting the list sometime on Thursday as time allows.
As we approach the new year, I want to wish everyone a Happy New Year! May God's blessings be plentiful in 2010! Thank all of you who have helped make this upstart blog a success in just 4 months time. I hope you will continue to help spread the word in 2010, so that the blog will keep growing and growing, and become something bigger and better. My goal is to make this the best and most trusted source for weather information in the Lake Charles area. Look for bigger and better things on the blog in 2010, and changes that will occur sooner rather than later. For 2010, I promise you that I will be fully committed to providing you with the most accurate and dependable weather information anywhere. It is my job, my duty, and my dream! If you have any ideas or comments on how I can improve the blog feel free to send me your suggestion. Look for the first forecast discussion of the new year to be posted here over the weekend. I plan to get back in gear on Saturday, but if some breaking weather occurs between now and then, of course I will be here for you! I hope your 2009 was a good one, and I wish you all the best in 2010! Thanks for viewing the blog, and know that all the weather information you'll ever need is always one click away! Happy New Year and God bless!
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The latest Gulf low has come and gone. This latest unwanted guest provided widespread rain across the entire forecast area today. Rainfall amounts were right in line with what was discussed last night...1-2". Heavier amounts occurred across Acadiana which was in closer proximity to the advancing Gulf low. It was on the raw side as temperatures remained below seasonable for the end of the year. That being said, it was still much warmer today than it had been the last couple of days with maximums in the mid to upper 50s. Rain has moved out of the entire forecast area as the low moves off the coast of SE Louisiana tonight. The main reason for the warm up today was surface warm air advection as the low advanced through the Gulf. Temperatures have since leveled off, and a quiet night is in store for the forecast area. The nemesis for tonight will be fog. Fog is already present at many reporting sites across the forecast area including here in Lake Charles, and it will continue to roll in overnight, and become dense after midnight. All of the remaining low-level moisture from today's rain will condense overnight as nighttime cooling processes take place to induce the fog development. Nearly calm winds will also aid in fog development. Where it's not so foggy, a low cloud deck will remain as the clouds slowly erode from W to E overnight. Lows will be near seasonable tonight with most locations in the 40s. Some upper 30s will be possible in the coldest locations.
Drier air is entraining into the area in the wake of the low, and while the rain is out of here, it will take some time for the clouds to leave. Earlier model runs suggested a good deal of sunshine for New Year's Eve Day Thursday, but so is often the case in the winter the low clouds have a mind of their own, and sometimes with the lower sun angle it is difficult for the sun to break through. It looks like a classic case of this may occur on Thursday based on the latest guidance tonight. I will be optimistic and say that we'll see some sun on Thursday, but the clouds will likely hang tough through the day. The most likely time to see some sunshine tomorrow will be between noon and 3p.m. This kind of forecast can wreak havoc on a temperature forecast, as more sunshine would lead to warmer temperatures well into the 60s, while more clouds than sun would keep temperatures down into the upper 50s or so. I will split the difference and forecast highs around 60 to the lower 60s. Either way, it will be a seasonable end to the year. The mild weather will not last long as another strong cold front will be in transit for the evening hours. A southerly flow will be established by Thursday afternoon as the front approaches. While the daylight hours of Thursday should be dry, there will be a chance of rain in the forecast for New Year's Eve between 6p.m. and midnight as the front quickly moves through. Moisture will be limited, and it will essentially be the forcing created by the front itself that generates some rain across the forecast area. A strong upper level impulse embedded in the NW flow aloft will be diving SE behind the cold front, and this feature will also add to the rain chances across the region, though higher chances will occur across North Louisiana in closer proximity to this feature. No widespread rain event is expected with moisture amounts very limited across the area. The front will be a fast mover, and any rain should be on the light side, and move through very quickly. I don't expect enough rain to dampen any outdoor plans you might have to ring in the New Year, but just be aware that there might be a passing shower or two. Rain chances will quickly be scoured out as the front pushes into the Gulf late Thursday or early on New Year's Day Friday. After the brief mild stint during the day Thursday, it will turn much colder once again overnight Thursday in the wake of the front. Low temperatures will be down into the mid to upper 30s across the forecast area, and another issue to contend with by this time frame will be the winds. Strong surface winds will develop around midnight in the wake of the front. The NNW wind of 15-20 mph will make it feel much colder, and a wind chill will certainly be back into play for the beginning of 2010. Skies will quickly clear out as the upper level impulse departs early New Year's Day.
Much of the New Year's weekend will feature benign weather just like Christmas weekend did. It will be cold and windy on Friday. Despite sunny skies, temperatures will only reach the mid to upper 40s. This initial shot of Arctic air appears to be a glancing blow, so while it will still get cold, we won't see the coldest associated with this air mass. The colder air will be on a trajectory that takes it more towards Dixie initially. The air mass will still be cold enough for another freeze for many areas on Saturday morning with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Readings will remain below normal through the weekend. We'll see high pressure move very near to us by Saturday afternoon with highs in the lower 50s. A brief return flow commences Sunday ahead of another re-enforcing Arctic front. Not much warming is expected with morning lows from around freezing to the mid 30s while afternoon highs reach the mid 50s with ease in most locations with ample sunshine. All indications remain such that a strong, Arctic front will move through the forecast area overnight Sunday. The front will be moisture starved just like the Thursday night front, and it is the forcing mechanism itself that would generate a chance of rain. This is reflected in the current forecast. Clouds will increase by Sunday late afternoon as the front approaches, but will quickly vacate the region overnight as Arctic high pressure suppresses the deeper moisture into the Gulf. Wind will again be the main weather story as it will be very windy behind this front Sunday. Some prospects for frozen precipitation are indicated by the forecast models for the Northern portion of the area overnight Sunday. The moisture could linger long enough as the cold air punches in. This is not forecast at this time. but certainly bears watching in the coming days. As Arctic air spills into the region Sunday night, look for lows to be around 30 to the mid 30s across the forecast area.
The Monday through Wednesday period of this forecast period is a bit more uncertain. The confidence is growing that temperatures during this time will be well below normal as additional surges of Arctic air reach the Gulf coast. There is some indication of....you guessed it...Western Gulf cyclogenesis behind the cold front Monday morning. This low would follow the lead of its predecessors and track through the Northern Gulf waters, however, it may track further South across the Gulf, thus limiting any precipitation chances across the forecast area. The jury is still out on this. For now, I will forgo the mention of rain beyond a slight 20% chance in the Monday-Wednesday time frame due to the uncertainties. Rain or no rain on Monday, I fully expect clouds to hang tough through the day with highs only in the low 40s and wind chills in the 20s. Skies clear for Monday Night as Arctic high pressure settles in, and sets the stage for a possible hard freeze by Tuesday. Low temperatures should be in the low to mid 20s Monday Night and Tuesday morning. The overall active pattern (Subtropcial Jet Stream) will continue, and Tuesday will be one of those in between days with generally clear skies and the cold continuing with highs only in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the forecast area. On Wednesday, more uncertainty is abound as models once again hint at another system moving across the area. This one appears to be embedded in the Polar Jet, along with added energy from the Subtropical Jet Stream should at least bring a return of clouds to the area. So, what about snow since its going to be so cold??? It's still a little far out to begin saying whether or not it's going to happen, but based on model consensus it appears that the right set up will be in place across the Gulf Coast. It's more or less just a matter of will there even be a system on the board at this time, and will it be cold enough at the surface. These are all questions that will be answered in the coming days. Needless to say, there are sure to be some busy days in the weather office for the first part of 2010. Stay tuned!!!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 43/60 38/49 30/52 0 20 30 0 0 0
LFT 44/62 38/50 29/51 0 20 30 0 0 0
BPT 45/61 40/50 31/52 0 20 30 0 0 0
AEX 40/58 32/45 27/48 0 20 30 0 0 0
POE 40/58 33/45 28/48 0 20 30 0 0 0
ARA 47/62 39/50 30/52 0 20 30 0 0 0
Tonight...Mostly Cloudy with Areas of Dense Fog. Low 43. Light wind.
New Year's Eve Day...Areas of Fog early, otherwise Becoming Sunny and Mild for the midday to early afternoon, then becoming Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of an evening shower. . High 60. Light SW wind.
New Year's Eve...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of rain until midnight. Becoming Clear and Windy. Low 38. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
New Year's Day...Sunny, Windy, and Cold. High 49. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Wind chills in the 20s.
New Year's Night...Clear and Cold. Low 30. NNW wind 10 mph.
Saturday...Sunny. High 52. North wind 10 mph.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Thursday
12-31-09
New Year's Eve
Low: 43
High: 60
Precip: 20%
Wind: SW 5-10
Friday
1-1-10
New Year's Day
Low: 38
High: 49
Precip: 0%
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 20-30
Saturday
1-2-10
Low: 30
High: 52
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 10
W.C.: 25-35
Sunday
1-3-10
Low: 36
High: 53
Precip: 20%
Wind: SW/NNW 15-20
Monday
1-4-10
Low: 33
High: 41
Precip: 20%
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 20-25
Tuesday
1-5-10
Low: 25
High: 40
Precip: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
W.C.: 15-25
Wednesday
1-6-09
Low: 24
High: 41
Rain: 20%
Wind: NNE 15-20
W.C.: 15-25
...Marine Forecast...
Thursday...Northeast winds around 5 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Areas of dense fog in the morning.
Thursday Night...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight. A chance of rain.
Friday...North winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
Friday Night...North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday...East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Good night, God bless and Happy New Year!
-DM-
No comments:
Post a Comment