SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Is it still December? It sure doesn't feel like it, does it? The advertised warm front made it through the forecast area with ease today ahead of a very strong and dynamic storm system for early December. No severe weather occurred in the forecast area as instability was rather weak in the warm sector, however, heavy rains over the SE portion of the forecast area produced significant flooding as storms trained over the same areas for much of the early morning hours. The rain actually began Monday night. An area of 6-10" of area occurred in areas between New Iberia and Morgan City. Flooding of homes occurred in the Jeanerette area. For the heart of SW Louisiana, not much in the way of rain occurred today with just some scattered showers mainly this afternoon in the deep moist flow and warm air at the surface. This made for a very meager day weather wise across the area. A tornado watch was issued for the Northeast portion of the state, but it only included 2 parishes in the forecast area...Rapides and Avoyelles! Overall it was just a very warm and humid day with temperatures well up into the 70s. The warm front extended as far North as the I-20 corridor. The cold front currently remains back to our West running roughly along a Houston to near Ruston line at this hour. There's quite a temperature gradient with the front. It is currently still 70 here in Lake Charles, while behind the front in Shreveport its 58, and falling. Further back in the deep cold air in Amarillo, its 12 degrees with a wind chill of -7. We certainly won't get anywhere near that cold here, but there will certainly be some chilly weather ushered in with this front. The main weather issue ahead of the front, which will arrive into the forecast area after midnight, will be fog. Dense fog is expected to form around midnight or shortly thereafter, and remain in place until the front passes and always for mixing processes in the atmosphere to dissipate the fog.
The ETA of the front should be between 3a.m. and 5a.m., and the air will be very soupy until then. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued by the National Weather Service in Lake Charles for the entire forecast area. A very minuscule chance of rain is in place ahead of the front, with the front itself acting as the only forcing mechanism that could stir up a shower or two. For intents and purposes though, the threat of rain is over until Friday. The temperature forecast for tonight is a tricky one at best. The high temperature for Wednesday will likely occur between midnight and sunrise as temperatures remain warm ahead of the front. Once CAA is established in its wake, temperatures will fall, and it is likely that it will be colder at noon and 5p.m. on Wednesday than it will be at 7a.m. Temperatures should remain in the upper 60s to near 70 until fropa, then drop into the 50s early Wednesday morning, and likely slowly fall through the 50s Wednesday. The fog will be scoured out by the front in the early morning hours, and skies will clear as high pressure takes over the forecast for a couple days. A decent amount of CAA will be present behind the front, and some colder air transported from the Canadian Provinces will be ushered in, however, the upper level pattern favors only a glancing blow. Winds will be out of the North up to 20 mph at times on Wednesday, after shifting from the SW overnight tonight.
While we'll be seeing a couple of nice days across the forecast area, a huge blizzard will be ongoing across the Mid West and Great Lakes Region, and the northern end of this system. Snow will be measured by the foot in many locations for our Northern counterparts. Back home, CAA will continue Wednesday as high pressure builds in from Texas. Wednesday night will be the coldest night of the week with temperatures ranging from the upper 20s to upper 30s depending on your location. Freezing temperatures are certain for locales such as Silsbee, Jasper, DeRidder, Fort Polk, Alexandria, Opelousas, Oakdale, Ville Platte, and Marksville. For locations such as Beaumont, Orange, Lake Charles, Sulphur, Lafayette, and New Iberia temperatures should be in the 32-35 range, and on the coast from Port Arthur to Morgan City temperatures should be in the 36-39 range. Winds should decouple (relax) and with clear skies in place, it should be a night that will be prime for radiational cooling as CAA ceases and the high pressure resides over SE Texas. It will be a cold start to Thursday with clear skies in place. It will remain on the cool side through the day as temperatures only warm up to the middle 50s at best despite the clear skies and December sun. Enjoy it while it lasts, because in this fast El Nino pattern that has been established this month, clouds will return by Thursday night.
Clouds will increase during the Thursday night period as I stated above, and temperatures will modify as well. After a very cold night Wednesday, temperatures will be several degrees warmer for Thursday night into Friday with readings in the mid 30s to lower 40s. The clouds and temperatures will be increasing in response to our next customer in the continuing pipeline of storms in this El Nino set up. Another short wave embedded in the Subtropical Jet Stream will generate another Gulf low and trailing cold front off the coast of South Texas Thursday night. This low will track NE parallel to the coast Friday and Friday night bringing our next chance of rain as its moisture overspreads the area. Friday will be on the cool side as the moisture overrides the cool surface air. Temperatures will top out on the mid 50s. Rain will become likely by noon and be widespread across the area Friday afternoon and evening. Friday should start off with cool and overcast conditions. This weather system should be a fast mover, and conditions will be improving overnight Friday with rain tapering off by early Saturday. Before all is said and done, 1-2" of rain can't be ruled out on top of what we've had over the last couple of weeks. This certainly assures that the wet pattern will continue. The track of the surface low will allow for the entire forecast area to remain in the cool, stable sector of this system, therefore a threat for any severe weather should be non-existent. The energetic low will certainly provide plenty of instability for the atmosphere to work with, but only elevated convection is expected with mostly just plain ole rain for the forecast area, heavy at times.
The good news is, like I said, this system should be a fast mover, and it sets up perfectly for the weekend. A fresh area of high pressure rides into the region for the weekend, kicking out the Gulf low early Saturday, and bringing back clear skies and lots of bright skies for Saturday and Sunday. Seasonably cool weather is in the offing behind the departing low as the cold air will remain locked up to our North. Temperatures for lows should be in the 40s for the most part, while highs reach the 60s, very typical for mid-December. It'll be nice and pleasant for church on Sunday, and while we're watching the Saints go to 13-0 over Atlanta.
Some high clouds will begin streaming in by Sunday afternoon as we get ready for the next weather maker. This next one scheduled to arrive on Monday, could make like Burger King and be a "whopper". It remains to be seen if we'll have severe weather or even enter the warm sector, but Gulf cyclogenesis is likely. A heavy rain threat certainly appears to be in the offing as well. Specifics are hare to decipher at this point, as there will still be some model discrepancy into the weekend. I feel that the pattern certainly favors a robust system at this time. There seems to be countless amounts of energy embedded in our wintertime nemesis that is the Subtropical Jet Stream. Rain and storms in the likely category are inserted for Monday. A milder temperature regime should continue with lows into the 50s and highs just shy of the 70 degree threshold.
The milder temperature regime over the weekend and into Monday will be short-lived. The rain may continue into Tuesday with some overrunning behind the departing low and associated strong cold front on Monday. Whether the rain hangs around or not, the milder weather will not. A return to below normal temperatures will commence by Tuesday in the wake of the Gulf low and as strong CAA is established. I will maintain rain chances for Tuesday at this point, as an overrunning scenario seems reasonable to me given the active El Nino. Temperatures will likely struggle to get much above 55 during the day, so a cold and raw day is expected at the end of the forecast period. An area of high pressure with Arctic origins moves into range just beyond this forecast period at mid-week next week, and this could set the stage for another area wide freeze and highs only reaching the 40s in the 16-18th time frame. This is beyond the scepter of the forecast period, so this is shear speculation, but that is the trend at this time. The long range pattern supports a very active pattern through Christmas.
...This Date in History: December 8...1938: The temperature at La Mesa, CA, soared to 108 degrees to set a U.S. record for the month of December.
1991- Out of season thunderstorms produced heavy damage in central Illinois. A tornado was reported near McLean. Baseball size hail was reported at some locations. The town of Petersburg, IL was hard hit by tennis ball sized that produced extensive damage.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 71/52 34/55 40/57 20 0 0 0 0 80
LFT 72/54 33/56 39/55 30 0 0 0 0 80
BPT 67/53 35/56 42/56 20 0 0 0 0 80
AEX 70/49 28/52 37/51 20 0 0 0 0 70
POE 70/50 29/53 38/52 20 0 0 0 0 70
ARA 70/54 35/55 41/58 30 0 0 0 0 90
*Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 6a.m. CST.*
Tonight...Mostly Cloudy with a slight chance of a shower. Dense Fog likely between midnight and 5a.m. Fog dissipating towards sunrise. Turning cooler late. Temperatures holding steady between 67 and 72 until the early morning hours, then dropping into the upper 50s by sunrise. SSW wind 5-10 mph becoming NNW at 15 mph and gusty.
Wednesday...Becoming Sunny, Breezy, and Cool. Temperatures in the upper 50s in the morning, falling to the lower 50s during the afternoon. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Wednesday Night...Clear and Cold. Low 34. North wind 5-10 mph
Thursday...Sunny. High 55. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Wednesday
12-9-09
Low: 71
High: 52
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW/NNW 10-15
Thursday
12-10-09
Low: 34
High: 55
Precip: 0%
Wind NE 5-10
Friday
12-11-09
Low: 40
High: 57
Rain: 80%
Wind: NE 10-15
Saturday
12-12-09
Low: 45
High: 62
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Sunday
12-13-09
Low: 45
High: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNE 10-15
Monday
12-14-09
Low: 51
High: 66
Rain: 70%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Tuesday
12-15-09
Low: 48
High: 55
Rain: 60%
Wind: NNW 15-20
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Southwest winds around 15 knots becoming west after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms late in the evening. Patchy fog late in the evening...then areas of dense fog after midnight.
Wednesday...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday Night...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Thursday Night...East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers after midnight.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 3:48a.m. 3:02p.m.
High: 8:31a.m. 8:37p.m.
...Toledo Bend...
170.86'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
Low: 57
Normal Low: 44
Record Low: 25-1910
High: 75
Normal High: 65
Record High: 82-1966
Rainfall
Today: 0.27"
Month to Date: 3.80"
Normal Month to Date: 1.17"
Year to Date: 68.34"
Normal Year to Date: 53.76"
Record: 3.75"-1936
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:58a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 5:13p.m.
Wednesday Hunting Times: 6:28a.m.-5:43p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Wednesday December 9
New Moon- Wednesday December 16
First Quarter- Thursday December 24 (Christmas Eve)
Full Moon- Thursday December 31 (New Year's Eve)
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
enjoy your side of the weather. thanks
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