Thursday, December 31, 2009
Happy New Year!
It is time to reveal the Top 10 Weather Events of 2009. The 10 Weather Events of the 2000s will follow a bit later on today.
The year, 2009, like every other year, certainly had its memorable weather events on a local, national, and international scale. For purposes of this blog, we'll focus on local events. To say that 2009 was an up and down year is an understatement. It was a year that featured everything from tornadoes to snow to a record early summer heat wave. It was a year that started dry and ended wet as we transitioned into an El Nino pattern. Perhaps, one of the biggest weather stories of the year on a local and national scale was the quiet tropical season. It was a year of extremes and wild swings in weather. None of this is more evident than looking back just a couple months ago...a hurricane in the Eastern Gulf in early November, and then accumulating snow a month later along the Western Gulf coast! So, now without further adieu, here's the list I have compiled.
10) El Nino- El Nino makes the list because it influenced the weather on a large scale locally as well as nationally and internationally. As El Nino developed during the summer, we experienced the good side of El Nino as it limited tropical development, and established a favorable pattern to steer any tropical systems away from us. However, the bad side of El Nino is rearing its ugly head here in the winter months as we've been locked in a very wet pattern this fall through til the end of the year, and this will extend into 2010.
9) The 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season- Normally it's a big deal when hurricane season is active, but this year the irony is that it was a quiet season, after it was forecast to be an active season. Most of this can be contributed to the established El Nino which creates a hostile environment for tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin. The 2009 season was well below normal, and it was the least active season in over 20 years! There were really only 3 significant systems over the course of the season...Bill, Fred, and Ida! Bill and Fred were major hurricanes, but remained in the open Atlantic. Ida was historical in the fact that it was one of the latest landfalling Atlantic basin tropical systems on record. In all, there were 9 named systems and 2 tropical depressions. There were the 3 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Here's how it compares to normal...10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.
8) Isolated Beaumont Tornado- August Tornadoes are rare across the area. Our usual, persistent, hot & humid pattern of the summer months is typically not conducive for tornadoes. However, on August 18, a strong tornado touched down near the mall in Beaumont. This was an isolated incident, as it a very typical mid-August afternoon across the area. The tornado basically formed when two thunderstorms merged over Beaumont, creating enough rotation in the atmosphere for tornadogenesis. The tornado was rated an EF1 had winds of 86-110 mph. The path length was 1 mile, and the tornado was about 100 yards wide. 10 people were injured by the tornado. The tornado touched down in a field behind Parkdale Mall, and moved NE across the mall and other businesses in NW Beaumont. The tornado caused significant damage to the Kohl's Department Store, significant damage to Wal-Mart Supercenter on Dowlen Road, and to Barnes & Noble Bookstore & Petco. Slight damage occurred at the mall mainly in the wings housing Dillard's and Macy's. The tornado overturned several cars in the Wal-Mart parking lot and in the East parking lot of the mall before dissipating near the Eastex Freeway (Highway 69).
7) Incredibly Wet October & December- Several of the events on this year's list are interrelated. This one is strongly attributed to the established El Nino. October 2009 was one of the top 3 wettest at all reporting sites across SW Louisiana. Lake Charles experienced its second wettest October ever with almost 15" of rain (14.96"). Beaumont nearly equaled that with 14.90". Lafayette, Alexandria, and New Iberia followed suit. 12.52" occurred at Lafayette while Alexandria reported 12.66", and New Iberia came in with the lowest total of all reporting sites in the area at 11.65". Some other locations around the area reported over 20" of rain for the month of October. Of note here is...Lake Charles established its all-time wettest month back in October 2002 with 21.45" of rain. October was incredibly wet for the entire state with record rainfall established at Shreveport and Monroe with over 20" at both locations. After a break from the extremely wet pattern in November, it returned in December. Rainfall totals will finish well above normal for the month. December rainfall totals were highest over Acadiana with 16.35" at New Iberia (Acadiana Regional Airport), 10.76" at Lafayette. Rainfall totals tempered downward for the other reporting sites, but ranged from over 6" at Beaumont to near 9" at Lake Charles. 6.37" was reported at Beaumont, while Alexandria recorded 8.46", and Lake Charles came in with 8.99". By far, the most incredible rains this December occurred just east of the forecast area ver SE Louisiana. New Orleans has received incredible rainfall totals, establishing their all-time wettest month. The city has picked up nearly 26" of rain with 25.92" the official reading at New Orleans International Airport in Kenner. These totals could go a bit higher depending on if we see any rain ahead of a cold front this evening.
6) Hurricane Ida- While Ida had virtually no direct impact on our area, I felt it was prudent to include it in this list due to its historical ramifications. Ida formed off the coast of Central America on November 4 as the 11th tropical depression of the season. The storm was in a favorable environment for development, and it rapidly strengthened becoming Tropical Storm Ida on the 4th. Ida slowly moved towards the coast of Central America, and became a hurricane on the morning of November 5th as it neared the coast of Nicaragua. The storm was moving so slow at this time, that there was much speculation to whether or not its circulation would survive over the mountainous terrain of Central America, given the time of year and the associated steering currents. Not only did Ida survive, she would grow stronger upon re-emerging over the warm waters of the Western Caribbean off the coast of Honduras. It emerged back over water on Friday, November 6. Ida would steadily re-strengthen as it was in a favorable environment. The Western Caribbean is the most climatologically favored area for tropical development during the month of November. Ida became a hurricane once again late on Saturday the 7th. It continued to strengthen and move Northward into Sunday the 8th. It entered the SE Gulf of Mexico, and became one of the latest hurricanes on record in the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Warnings were issued for much of the Central Gulf Coast region as Ida barreled toward the coastline. Ida continued to move around the edge of an Atlantic high off the coast of the SE U.S., and was in a favorable environment for strengthening over the SE Gulf where waters were still at or above 80 F. Ida reached a peak intensity of 105 mph-category 2 on Sunday the 8th. Weakening was expected as Ida moved further into the Gulf and closer to the coast due to the effects of cooler water temperatures, but it was forecasted at one time to remain a hurricane until its landfall somewhere along the Central Gulf coast on Monday the 9th. Ida began to feel the influence of wind shear ahead of an approaching trough as well as the colder water over the Northern Gulf, and began weakening on 9th. Rapid weakening occurred for the rest of the day on Monday the 9th, into Tuesday the 10th when Ida made landfall. Ida's U.S. landfalls occurred along coastal Alabama near Dauphin Island, and then final landfall was near Bon Secour, AL on the morning of the 9th. Ida's official wind speed at landfall was 45 mph, but that could be generous based on reports from the area near landfall. Ida transitioned to an extratropical storm by Wednesday the 11th, and traversed the Eastern Seaboard.
5) March 25-27 Severe Weather Outbreak- Severe weather outbreaks across the forecast area generally last for a few hours, maybe up to a day at the most. However, an unusual storm track in late March led to a prolonged stretch of severe weather. Significant reports of severe weather occurred each day from Wednesday, March 25 through Friday, March 27. A series of upper level disturbances moved across the area during this 3 day span, and each one triggered showers and thunderstorms across the area. The worst of the weather was in a different location each day, but there were significant severe weather reports in our general vicinity all 3 days. Here are some highlights...Wednesday March, 25 a line of severe thunderstorms moves through Calcasieu Parish and a microburst occurred at DeQuincy. Tornado like damage occurred, and several homes and businesses in the Northern Calcasieu municipality obtained damage from winds near 70 mph. The same storm moved to the SSE through the community of Buhler in Calcasieu Parish. Damage was in a NNW to SSE line across the community. Numerous trees and power lines were downed by the strong winds up to 70 mph. Some minor damage occurred to trailers in the area. The strongest part of the storm missed the city of Lake Charles, but winds were still strong enough to knock down a few trees in South Lake Charles. Winds up to 60 mph occurred in Lake Charles. That same night, other microbursts occurred near the Hampton community in Allen Parish, Grand Lake in Cameron Parish, Mamou in Evangeline Parish, and near Opelousas and Lawtell in St. Landry Parish. Early on the 26th, the same storm system caused more damage from the microbursts in Franklin in St. Mary Parish. The damage was more significant in these areas, as the winds were stronger, at times reaching speeds over 90 mph. Straight line winds seemed to be the mode of severe weather on Thursday, March 26. Wind damage occurred across Acadiana most significantly in the Charenton and Patterson areas. Wind speeds were estimated at 80 mph, and some reports indicated that the damage in Charenton was worse than that of Hurricane Gustav. The strongest storms of the 3 day period came on Friday, March 27 as a cold front finally moved through and flushed out the volatile atmosphere. Tornadoes occurred in Rapides to the SW of Alexandria in the community of Gardner. While, a bit closer to Lake Charles, some of the largest hail stones ever recorded in SW Louisiana occurred. A supercell thunderstorm tracked through Southern Beauregard into Central Allen Parish, and large hail caused extensive damage in its path. Hail sizes ranged from golf-ball size to grapefruit size. Baseball sized hail occurred at Ragley in Beauregard Parish. The storm reached peak intensity in Western Allen Parish near the Reeves community where grapefruit sized hail occurred. This hail broken car windshields in the area. The storm continued to produce large hail into Allen Parish with golf ball sized hail near Oberlin.
4) October Flooding & Severe Weather- A series of El Nino storm systems moved across the forecast area in October, not only causing a very wet month as stated in #7, but also severe weather across parts of the area, and significant flooding impacted the Lake Charles area. First, the severe weather occurred with an October tornado outbreak on the 22nd. A strong cold front, Gulf low, and remnant tropical from what was once Pacific Hurricane Rick moved across the area. The remnant low moved right through the forecast area, and created enough wind shear for some tornadoes across the area. 6 tornadoes were reported on that Thursday afternoon as the remnant low moved NE through the area. The tornadoes were along a SW-NE line from near Grand Chenier to near Oakdale. The strongest tornado occurred between Jennings and Elton. A tornado flipped over a tractor trailer on I-10 at Jennings, and the damage done by the tornado in the town of Elton supposedly passed that of Hurricane Rita. Rainfall of 2-4" occurred across the area, but it wasn't until the next system on Monday, October 26 that the flooding problems arose. A slow moving low pressure system traversed the area on the 26th, and rain overspread the area during the day. Rainfall was very heavy for hours at Lake Charles. A new daily rainfall record was established for the date. Officially 5.3" of rain fell at the airport (the official reporting site for LCH). Some areas received over 6" of rain in just a few hours time. The entire Lake area saw over 5" of rain that afternoon, with 2.00" in a half hour period. Significant flooding occurred in SE Lake Charles with several homes flooded, and flooded roadways lasting for a couple days. Several vehicles were stranded on area roadways due to the flooding. The heaviest rain with this event was right over Lake Charles.
3) Early Summer Heat Wave & Drought- Before El Nino set in, it was miserably hot & dry early this summer. A wet May transitioned to a very hot & dry June as a large dome of high pressure residing over the Gulf coast. Much of June saw temperatures above 95 degrees, and for several days during the last 10 days of June temperatures eclipsed the century mark. Record highs for the month were established at some locations for 4 days straight, and every reporting site recorded at least one record high during the period from June 20-30. To add insult to injury, it didn't rain for most of the month. Most of the rainfall for the month of June came at the end of the month, when a upper level impulse was able to bust the cap over the area, and some strong thunderstorms occurred. No rain fell for the first 23 days of the month. The rain-free stretch carried over from the end of May, marking a solid month with no measurable rainfall at Lake Charles. Lake Charles reached a maximum temperature for the month and for the year on June 24 and 25 when the mercury topped out at 102 each day.
2) Christmas Eve Tornado Outbreak- Most people think of cold and snow when they think of what kind of weather one might expect for Christmas. Of course, here in South Louisiana, snow is a precious commodity. However, most of our Christmases are generally tranquil. While Christmas Day in 2009, was clear & cold, Christmas Eve was anything but quiet at least starting out. A very strong El Nino enhanced storm system moved through the area in the morning hours. All the parameters were in place for a significant severe weather event, including tornadoes. This is exactly what transpired. Strong tornadoes occurred in the Shreveport NWS forecast area, most notable near Lufkin, TX where an EF3 did extensive damage. In our area, no tornadoes were reported in SE Texas or immediate SW Louisiana, however, this was not the case in Acadiana. 8 tornadoes occurred during the morning hours on Christmas Eve between 7a.m. and 9a.m. The tornadoes ranged from EF0 to EF2. The strongest tornadoes occurred in Vermilion Parish near Gueydan, where much of the town sustained damage. Acadia Parish saw extensive damage in the communities of Morse and Atwood Acres. Significant damage was also sustained in Whiteville near the St. Landry and Avoyelles Parish line. Other tornado also occurred at Evergreen in Avoyelles Parish, Judd in Acadia Parish, Iota, and Richard near the Acadia/St. Landry Parish line. Several reports of straight line winds occurred as well. One fatality resulted from this storm system when a tree fell on a home in Scott, killing a 44 year old man. This was from straight line winds over 70 mph as the squall line associated with the cold front moved through the area.
Now, time for the biggest weather story of 2009...
1) Earliest Accumulating Snowfall on Record - Who would have thought that we would eclipse a record that was set just a year ago for snowfall. Of all things, snowfall in South Louisiana! However, that is exactly what happened on December 4. Another in a series of El Nino storm systems affected the area on Friday the 4th. Modest cold air was already in place as the onset of the precip began that morning. All the precipitation across the area began as rain. However, further to our West around Houston the precip started as snow, and remained snow throughout the day. A surge of colder air was working its way into the area at this time. A Gulf low formed as well, and this kept rainfall over the area throughout the day. Temperatures gradually fell throughout the day, and by the afternoon hours rain began changing to snow across the forecast area. First, rain mixed with and eventually changed to snow for areas north of I-10 by mid-afternoon Friday. A brief rain/snow mix occurred in Lake Charles around noon. Finally, on Friday evening a transition to all snow occurred across nearly the entire area as the colder Arctic air worked into the region. Accumulating snows occurred across much of the area, as the snow fell hard enough to allow for accumulations even though temperatures were just above freezing for most of the event. A rain/snow mix even occurred at the coast. Accumulations ranged from less than inch to near 3". Accumulations of .2-1" occurred in the Lake Charles area with higher amounts North and East of town. The heaviest total was 3" near Eunice. Where the snow was heaviest, most of it remained on the ground until mid-morning Saturday, the 5th as very cold temperatures followed the snow with a hard freeze the morning of the 5th with area wide temperatures in the 20s. The official total snowfall accumulation at Lake Charles was .2", and this will go down as the earliest accumulating snowfall on record. This broke the previous record of .4" established on December 11, 2008. This tied for the 2nd heaviest snowfall on record during the month of December at Lake Charles, and only the 3rd such occurrence of measurable snow in the month. I should also note, that this was the first time in 60 years, and only the 2nd time in recorded history that snow fell on back to back years in Lake Charles. January of 1948 and 1949 was the last time this occurred.
In closing, it was another interesting year of weather across the area. We saw some of the worst of Mother Nature as well as some of the best of Mother Nature. The weather is never ending, and while it has its dull moments, as meteorologists, we live for the active moments such as the ones described above. No one knows what the year 2010 will hold as far as weather goes, but I'm sure when it's all said and done next December we'll be able to compile another list of memorable weather events for the year. Happy New Year, and always check back right here on the blog to see when the next memorable weather event may occur. Check back later for the Top 10 Weather Events of the Decade.
Happy New Year and God bless!
-DM-
Thursday, December 31, 2009
Last Widespread Rain Event of 2009 is Over...Fog an Issue Tonight...Clear & Cold Beginning to 2010...
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
The Top 10 Weather Events of 2009 and of the 2000s will be posted in a separate post.
This is the final blog post of 2009 at least as far as the forecast discussion et. al is concerned. As we close out 2009...the year and the decade of the 2000s, join me for a look back at the year and decade that was in the world of weather. As I stated last night, when compiling the list I have tried to keep the events as local as possible. I will begin posting the list sometime on Thursday as time allows.
As we approach the new year, I want to wish everyone a Happy New Year! May God's blessings be plentiful in 2010! Thank all of you who have helped make this upstart blog a success in just 4 months time. I hope you will continue to help spread the word in 2010, so that the blog will keep growing and growing, and become something bigger and better. My goal is to make this the best and most trusted source for weather information in the Lake Charles area. Look for bigger and better things on the blog in 2010, and changes that will occur sooner rather than later. For 2010, I promise you that I will be fully committed to providing you with the most accurate and dependable weather information anywhere. It is my job, my duty, and my dream! If you have any ideas or comments on how I can improve the blog feel free to send me your suggestion. Look for the first forecast discussion of the new year to be posted here over the weekend. I plan to get back in gear on Saturday, but if some breaking weather occurs between now and then, of course I will be here for you! I hope your 2009 was a good one, and I wish you all the best in 2010! Thanks for viewing the blog, and know that all the weather information you'll ever need is always one click away! Happy New Year and God bless!
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The latest Gulf low has come and gone. This latest unwanted guest provided widespread rain across the entire forecast area today. Rainfall amounts were right in line with what was discussed last night...1-2". Heavier amounts occurred across Acadiana which was in closer proximity to the advancing Gulf low. It was on the raw side as temperatures remained below seasonable for the end of the year. That being said, it was still much warmer today than it had been the last couple of days with maximums in the mid to upper 50s. Rain has moved out of the entire forecast area as the low moves off the coast of SE Louisiana tonight. The main reason for the warm up today was surface warm air advection as the low advanced through the Gulf. Temperatures have since leveled off, and a quiet night is in store for the forecast area. The nemesis for tonight will be fog. Fog is already present at many reporting sites across the forecast area including here in Lake Charles, and it will continue to roll in overnight, and become dense after midnight. All of the remaining low-level moisture from today's rain will condense overnight as nighttime cooling processes take place to induce the fog development. Nearly calm winds will also aid in fog development. Where it's not so foggy, a low cloud deck will remain as the clouds slowly erode from W to E overnight. Lows will be near seasonable tonight with most locations in the 40s. Some upper 30s will be possible in the coldest locations.
Drier air is entraining into the area in the wake of the low, and while the rain is out of here, it will take some time for the clouds to leave. Earlier model runs suggested a good deal of sunshine for New Year's Eve Day Thursday, but so is often the case in the winter the low clouds have a mind of their own, and sometimes with the lower sun angle it is difficult for the sun to break through. It looks like a classic case of this may occur on Thursday based on the latest guidance tonight. I will be optimistic and say that we'll see some sun on Thursday, but the clouds will likely hang tough through the day. The most likely time to see some sunshine tomorrow will be between noon and 3p.m. This kind of forecast can wreak havoc on a temperature forecast, as more sunshine would lead to warmer temperatures well into the 60s, while more clouds than sun would keep temperatures down into the upper 50s or so. I will split the difference and forecast highs around 60 to the lower 60s. Either way, it will be a seasonable end to the year. The mild weather will not last long as another strong cold front will be in transit for the evening hours. A southerly flow will be established by Thursday afternoon as the front approaches. While the daylight hours of Thursday should be dry, there will be a chance of rain in the forecast for New Year's Eve between 6p.m. and midnight as the front quickly moves through. Moisture will be limited, and it will essentially be the forcing created by the front itself that generates some rain across the forecast area. A strong upper level impulse embedded in the NW flow aloft will be diving SE behind the cold front, and this feature will also add to the rain chances across the region, though higher chances will occur across North Louisiana in closer proximity to this feature. No widespread rain event is expected with moisture amounts very limited across the area. The front will be a fast mover, and any rain should be on the light side, and move through very quickly. I don't expect enough rain to dampen any outdoor plans you might have to ring in the New Year, but just be aware that there might be a passing shower or two. Rain chances will quickly be scoured out as the front pushes into the Gulf late Thursday or early on New Year's Day Friday. After the brief mild stint during the day Thursday, it will turn much colder once again overnight Thursday in the wake of the front. Low temperatures will be down into the mid to upper 30s across the forecast area, and another issue to contend with by this time frame will be the winds. Strong surface winds will develop around midnight in the wake of the front. The NNW wind of 15-20 mph will make it feel much colder, and a wind chill will certainly be back into play for the beginning of 2010. Skies will quickly clear out as the upper level impulse departs early New Year's Day.
Much of the New Year's weekend will feature benign weather just like Christmas weekend did. It will be cold and windy on Friday. Despite sunny skies, temperatures will only reach the mid to upper 40s. This initial shot of Arctic air appears to be a glancing blow, so while it will still get cold, we won't see the coldest associated with this air mass. The colder air will be on a trajectory that takes it more towards Dixie initially. The air mass will still be cold enough for another freeze for many areas on Saturday morning with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Readings will remain below normal through the weekend. We'll see high pressure move very near to us by Saturday afternoon with highs in the lower 50s. A brief return flow commences Sunday ahead of another re-enforcing Arctic front. Not much warming is expected with morning lows from around freezing to the mid 30s while afternoon highs reach the mid 50s with ease in most locations with ample sunshine. All indications remain such that a strong, Arctic front will move through the forecast area overnight Sunday. The front will be moisture starved just like the Thursday night front, and it is the forcing mechanism itself that would generate a chance of rain. This is reflected in the current forecast. Clouds will increase by Sunday late afternoon as the front approaches, but will quickly vacate the region overnight as Arctic high pressure suppresses the deeper moisture into the Gulf. Wind will again be the main weather story as it will be very windy behind this front Sunday. Some prospects for frozen precipitation are indicated by the forecast models for the Northern portion of the area overnight Sunday. The moisture could linger long enough as the cold air punches in. This is not forecast at this time. but certainly bears watching in the coming days. As Arctic air spills into the region Sunday night, look for lows to be around 30 to the mid 30s across the forecast area.
The Monday through Wednesday period of this forecast period is a bit more uncertain. The confidence is growing that temperatures during this time will be well below normal as additional surges of Arctic air reach the Gulf coast. There is some indication of....you guessed it...Western Gulf cyclogenesis behind the cold front Monday morning. This low would follow the lead of its predecessors and track through the Northern Gulf waters, however, it may track further South across the Gulf, thus limiting any precipitation chances across the forecast area. The jury is still out on this. For now, I will forgo the mention of rain beyond a slight 20% chance in the Monday-Wednesday time frame due to the uncertainties. Rain or no rain on Monday, I fully expect clouds to hang tough through the day with highs only in the low 40s and wind chills in the 20s. Skies clear for Monday Night as Arctic high pressure settles in, and sets the stage for a possible hard freeze by Tuesday. Low temperatures should be in the low to mid 20s Monday Night and Tuesday morning. The overall active pattern (Subtropcial Jet Stream) will continue, and Tuesday will be one of those in between days with generally clear skies and the cold continuing with highs only in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the forecast area. On Wednesday, more uncertainty is abound as models once again hint at another system moving across the area. This one appears to be embedded in the Polar Jet, along with added energy from the Subtropical Jet Stream should at least bring a return of clouds to the area. So, what about snow since its going to be so cold??? It's still a little far out to begin saying whether or not it's going to happen, but based on model consensus it appears that the right set up will be in place across the Gulf Coast. It's more or less just a matter of will there even be a system on the board at this time, and will it be cold enough at the surface. These are all questions that will be answered in the coming days. Needless to say, there are sure to be some busy days in the weather office for the first part of 2010. Stay tuned!!!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 43/60 38/49 30/52 0 20 30 0 0 0
LFT 44/62 38/50 29/51 0 20 30 0 0 0
BPT 45/61 40/50 31/52 0 20 30 0 0 0
AEX 40/58 32/45 27/48 0 20 30 0 0 0
POE 40/58 33/45 28/48 0 20 30 0 0 0
ARA 47/62 39/50 30/52 0 20 30 0 0 0
Tonight...Mostly Cloudy with Areas of Dense Fog. Low 43. Light wind.
New Year's Eve Day...Areas of Fog early, otherwise Becoming Sunny and Mild for the midday to early afternoon, then becoming Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of an evening shower. . High 60. Light SW wind.
New Year's Eve...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of rain until midnight. Becoming Clear and Windy. Low 38. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
New Year's Day...Sunny, Windy, and Cold. High 49. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Wind chills in the 20s.
New Year's Night...Clear and Cold. Low 30. NNW wind 10 mph.
Saturday...Sunny. High 52. North wind 10 mph.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Thursday
12-31-09
New Year's Eve
Low: 43
High: 60
Precip: 20%
Wind: SW 5-10
Friday
1-1-10
New Year's Day
Low: 38
High: 49
Precip: 0%
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 20-30
Saturday
1-2-10
Low: 30
High: 52
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 10
W.C.: 25-35
Sunday
1-3-10
Low: 36
High: 53
Precip: 20%
Wind: SW/NNW 15-20
Monday
1-4-10
Tonight...West winds around 5 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding
to 1 to 3 feet after midnight. Areas of dense fog with visibility 1 nm
or less late in the evening. Areas of dense fog after midnight.
Visibility 1 nm or less late in the evening.
Thursday...Northeast winds around 5 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Areas of dense fog in the morning.
Thursday Night...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight. A chance of rain.
Friday...North winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
Friday Night...North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday...East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Good night, God bless and Happy New Year!
-DM-
The Top 10 Weather Events of 2009 and of the 2000s will be posted in a separate post.
This is the final blog post of 2009 at least as far as the forecast discussion et. al is concerned. As we close out 2009...the year and the decade of the 2000s, join me for a look back at the year and decade that was in the world of weather. As I stated last night, when compiling the list I have tried to keep the events as local as possible. I will begin posting the list sometime on Thursday as time allows.
As we approach the new year, I want to wish everyone a Happy New Year! May God's blessings be plentiful in 2010! Thank all of you who have helped make this upstart blog a success in just 4 months time. I hope you will continue to help spread the word in 2010, so that the blog will keep growing and growing, and become something bigger and better. My goal is to make this the best and most trusted source for weather information in the Lake Charles area. Look for bigger and better things on the blog in 2010, and changes that will occur sooner rather than later. For 2010, I promise you that I will be fully committed to providing you with the most accurate and dependable weather information anywhere. It is my job, my duty, and my dream! If you have any ideas or comments on how I can improve the blog feel free to send me your suggestion. Look for the first forecast discussion of the new year to be posted here over the weekend. I plan to get back in gear on Saturday, but if some breaking weather occurs between now and then, of course I will be here for you! I hope your 2009 was a good one, and I wish you all the best in 2010! Thanks for viewing the blog, and know that all the weather information you'll ever need is always one click away! Happy New Year and God bless!
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The latest Gulf low has come and gone. This latest unwanted guest provided widespread rain across the entire forecast area today. Rainfall amounts were right in line with what was discussed last night...1-2". Heavier amounts occurred across Acadiana which was in closer proximity to the advancing Gulf low. It was on the raw side as temperatures remained below seasonable for the end of the year. That being said, it was still much warmer today than it had been the last couple of days with maximums in the mid to upper 50s. Rain has moved out of the entire forecast area as the low moves off the coast of SE Louisiana tonight. The main reason for the warm up today was surface warm air advection as the low advanced through the Gulf. Temperatures have since leveled off, and a quiet night is in store for the forecast area. The nemesis for tonight will be fog. Fog is already present at many reporting sites across the forecast area including here in Lake Charles, and it will continue to roll in overnight, and become dense after midnight. All of the remaining low-level moisture from today's rain will condense overnight as nighttime cooling processes take place to induce the fog development. Nearly calm winds will also aid in fog development. Where it's not so foggy, a low cloud deck will remain as the clouds slowly erode from W to E overnight. Lows will be near seasonable tonight with most locations in the 40s. Some upper 30s will be possible in the coldest locations.
Drier air is entraining into the area in the wake of the low, and while the rain is out of here, it will take some time for the clouds to leave. Earlier model runs suggested a good deal of sunshine for New Year's Eve Day Thursday, but so is often the case in the winter the low clouds have a mind of their own, and sometimes with the lower sun angle it is difficult for the sun to break through. It looks like a classic case of this may occur on Thursday based on the latest guidance tonight. I will be optimistic and say that we'll see some sun on Thursday, but the clouds will likely hang tough through the day. The most likely time to see some sunshine tomorrow will be between noon and 3p.m. This kind of forecast can wreak havoc on a temperature forecast, as more sunshine would lead to warmer temperatures well into the 60s, while more clouds than sun would keep temperatures down into the upper 50s or so. I will split the difference and forecast highs around 60 to the lower 60s. Either way, it will be a seasonable end to the year. The mild weather will not last long as another strong cold front will be in transit for the evening hours. A southerly flow will be established by Thursday afternoon as the front approaches. While the daylight hours of Thursday should be dry, there will be a chance of rain in the forecast for New Year's Eve between 6p.m. and midnight as the front quickly moves through. Moisture will be limited, and it will essentially be the forcing created by the front itself that generates some rain across the forecast area. A strong upper level impulse embedded in the NW flow aloft will be diving SE behind the cold front, and this feature will also add to the rain chances across the region, though higher chances will occur across North Louisiana in closer proximity to this feature. No widespread rain event is expected with moisture amounts very limited across the area. The front will be a fast mover, and any rain should be on the light side, and move through very quickly. I don't expect enough rain to dampen any outdoor plans you might have to ring in the New Year, but just be aware that there might be a passing shower or two. Rain chances will quickly be scoured out as the front pushes into the Gulf late Thursday or early on New Year's Day Friday. After the brief mild stint during the day Thursday, it will turn much colder once again overnight Thursday in the wake of the front. Low temperatures will be down into the mid to upper 30s across the forecast area, and another issue to contend with by this time frame will be the winds. Strong surface winds will develop around midnight in the wake of the front. The NNW wind of 15-20 mph will make it feel much colder, and a wind chill will certainly be back into play for the beginning of 2010. Skies will quickly clear out as the upper level impulse departs early New Year's Day.
Much of the New Year's weekend will feature benign weather just like Christmas weekend did. It will be cold and windy on Friday. Despite sunny skies, temperatures will only reach the mid to upper 40s. This initial shot of Arctic air appears to be a glancing blow, so while it will still get cold, we won't see the coldest associated with this air mass. The colder air will be on a trajectory that takes it more towards Dixie initially. The air mass will still be cold enough for another freeze for many areas on Saturday morning with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Readings will remain below normal through the weekend. We'll see high pressure move very near to us by Saturday afternoon with highs in the lower 50s. A brief return flow commences Sunday ahead of another re-enforcing Arctic front. Not much warming is expected with morning lows from around freezing to the mid 30s while afternoon highs reach the mid 50s with ease in most locations with ample sunshine. All indications remain such that a strong, Arctic front will move through the forecast area overnight Sunday. The front will be moisture starved just like the Thursday night front, and it is the forcing mechanism itself that would generate a chance of rain. This is reflected in the current forecast. Clouds will increase by Sunday late afternoon as the front approaches, but will quickly vacate the region overnight as Arctic high pressure suppresses the deeper moisture into the Gulf. Wind will again be the main weather story as it will be very windy behind this front Sunday. Some prospects for frozen precipitation are indicated by the forecast models for the Northern portion of the area overnight Sunday. The moisture could linger long enough as the cold air punches in. This is not forecast at this time. but certainly bears watching in the coming days. As Arctic air spills into the region Sunday night, look for lows to be around 30 to the mid 30s across the forecast area.
The Monday through Wednesday period of this forecast period is a bit more uncertain. The confidence is growing that temperatures during this time will be well below normal as additional surges of Arctic air reach the Gulf coast. There is some indication of....you guessed it...Western Gulf cyclogenesis behind the cold front Monday morning. This low would follow the lead of its predecessors and track through the Northern Gulf waters, however, it may track further South across the Gulf, thus limiting any precipitation chances across the forecast area. The jury is still out on this. For now, I will forgo the mention of rain beyond a slight 20% chance in the Monday-Wednesday time frame due to the uncertainties. Rain or no rain on Monday, I fully expect clouds to hang tough through the day with highs only in the low 40s and wind chills in the 20s. Skies clear for Monday Night as Arctic high pressure settles in, and sets the stage for a possible hard freeze by Tuesday. Low temperatures should be in the low to mid 20s Monday Night and Tuesday morning. The overall active pattern (Subtropcial Jet Stream) will continue, and Tuesday will be one of those in between days with generally clear skies and the cold continuing with highs only in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the forecast area. On Wednesday, more uncertainty is abound as models once again hint at another system moving across the area. This one appears to be embedded in the Polar Jet, along with added energy from the Subtropical Jet Stream should at least bring a return of clouds to the area. So, what about snow since its going to be so cold??? It's still a little far out to begin saying whether or not it's going to happen, but based on model consensus it appears that the right set up will be in place across the Gulf Coast. It's more or less just a matter of will there even be a system on the board at this time, and will it be cold enough at the surface. These are all questions that will be answered in the coming days. Needless to say, there are sure to be some busy days in the weather office for the first part of 2010. Stay tuned!!!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 43/60 38/49 30/52 0 20 30 0 0 0
LFT 44/62 38/50 29/51 0 20 30 0 0 0
BPT 45/61 40/50 31/52 0 20 30 0 0 0
AEX 40/58 32/45 27/48 0 20 30 0 0 0
POE 40/58 33/45 28/48 0 20 30 0 0 0
ARA 47/62 39/50 30/52 0 20 30 0 0 0
Tonight...Mostly Cloudy with Areas of Dense Fog. Low 43. Light wind.
New Year's Eve Day...Areas of Fog early, otherwise Becoming Sunny and Mild for the midday to early afternoon, then becoming Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of an evening shower. . High 60. Light SW wind.
New Year's Eve...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of rain until midnight. Becoming Clear and Windy. Low 38. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
New Year's Day...Sunny, Windy, and Cold. High 49. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Wind chills in the 20s.
New Year's Night...Clear and Cold. Low 30. NNW wind 10 mph.
Saturday...Sunny. High 52. North wind 10 mph.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Thursday
12-31-09
New Year's Eve
Low: 43
High: 60
Precip: 20%
Wind: SW 5-10
Friday
1-1-10
New Year's Day
Low: 38
High: 49
Precip: 0%
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 20-30
Saturday
1-2-10
Low: 30
High: 52
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 10
W.C.: 25-35
Sunday
1-3-10
Low: 36
High: 53
Precip: 20%
Wind: SW/NNW 15-20
Monday
1-4-10
Low: 33
High: 41
Precip: 20%
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 20-25
Tuesday
1-5-10
Low: 25
High: 40
Precip: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
W.C.: 15-25
Wednesday
1-6-09
Low: 24
High: 41
Rain: 20%
Wind: NNE 15-20
W.C.: 15-25
...Marine Forecast...
Thursday...Northeast winds around 5 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Areas of dense fog in the morning.
Thursday Night...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight. A chance of rain.
Friday...North winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
Friday Night...North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday...East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Good night, God bless and Happy New Year!
-DM-
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Very Wet Wednesday...Dry End to 2009...Arctic Cold to Start 2010...
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
I hope everyone had a blessed Christmas, and enjoyed time with your family and friends. As we head towards New Years, I am back at it here on the blog, and before I get to the business at hand, just a reminder that I will not post on Thursday/Friday (New Years Eve or New Years Day). I plan on taking the weekend off as well, but as of right now I will be posting on Saturday and Sunday due to an impinging Arctic outbreak. The complete details follow in the discussion.
Also, it's time to count down the Top 10 Weather Events of 2009, and as we end the decade of the 2000s (can you believe it?), it's also time to reveal the Top 10 Weather Events of the 2000s. I will do this over the course of the next few days. Many of you can probably guess what the #1 weather event of the 2000s is here. When compiling this list, I have tried my best to narrow it down to events only significant to the forecast area. Maybe, as time allows our the first part of 2010, I will recap the top weather events elsewhere of the year and decade. I also will rehash the Christmas Eve Tornado Outbreak later this week.
One other reminder before I get to the forecast discussion...the blog will be in holiday/severe weather mode through Sunday. That is, only the forecast discussion,zone forecasts, and the special items discussed above will be displayed. All other features of the blog will return on Monday, January 4. Happy New Year!!!
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...An already exceptionally wet year will be getting wetter as we approach the end of the year and the decade! The pesky, persistent pattern of the fall/winter of 2009-2010 continues to be a nemesis with the next in a never-ending series of Gulf lows ready to traverse the Northern Gulf waters. An area wide freeze occurred this morning with temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s as skies were clear with near calm winds to start the day. Conditions rapidly deteriorated through the day as clouds increased as Western Gulf cyclogenesis occurred. This low combined with a Northern stream upper level impulse sliding into Texas has resulted in widespread rainfall across Texas with snow on the Northern edge of the precip shield from near Dallas into Oklahoma. The initial area of rain with the advancing short wave has moved through SW Louisiana as of this writing, but it will redevelop late tonight as the low gets cranked up. It will mostly be a light, nagging nuisance rain tonight and early Wednesday, but it will be heavy at times Wednesday as the low traverses the coastal waters from SW to NE. This low will track much closer to the coast than its predecessor, so you can expect much more in the way of rainfall activity. Rainfall amounts will average 1-2" with isolated amounts up to 4" possible through Wednesday night. It will take pretty much all day for the rain to exit stage right as the low pulls away. Some improvement will be noted by the afternoon as the low pushes towards SE Louisiana. No severe weather will be expected for this short term period tonight through Wednesday. The unseasonably cool weather will continue for Wednesday with highs in the mid 50s for most locations with the rain throughout the day. Marked improvement occurs by Wednesday night with drier air entraining into the area in the wake of the departing low. A chance of rain will be maintained into early Wednesday night before skies clear overnight. Lows for Wednesday night/Thursday morning will be in the 40s area wide.
New Year's Eve on Thursday should be a nice day as an area of high pressure moves in behind the departing low. Temperatures will reach normal to above normal levels in the lower 60s, but this will be a short-lived occurrence as at this same time another strong cold front will be waiting in the wings in the continued NW flow aloft at the surface. This front will surge through the area late Thursday evening into Thursday night. It will be a quick mover, and a moisture starved front, so rain chances are limited ahead of this boundary. I certainly wouldn't rule out the forcing associated with the front being able to generate a few showers, but all in all just some clouds are expected as the boundary quickly pushes into the Gulf of Mexico. An embedded short wave directly behind this front in the continuing NW flow aloft will be dropping into Southern Arkansas, and this may conjure up a few snow flakes for the Northern half of the state New Year's Eve night. No such luck here, just clear and cold. New Year's Eve temperatures such fall into the mid 30s by sunrise New Year's Day. A wind chill in the 20s is expected with clear skies. New Year's Day will be a clear and cold day. After the cold morning start, afternoon highs are only expected to reach the upper 40s at best. The new year and decade will start on a rather benign note.
More nice weather is in the offing for Saturday as high pressure dominates. Sunny skies are expected, and will remain cold with another freeze expected nearly area wide. Lows will range from the upper 20s to the lower 30s, this will be similar to Tuesday morning across the area. Afternoon highs will fare a bit better reaching the lower 50s. The first weekend of 2010 should be a dry one, but cold. Sunday looks uneventful at least to start out with temperatures again near the freezing mark, and highs in the low to mid 50s underneath sunny skies. A very interesting end of the forecast period is shaping up beginning with Sunday night. A very strong Arctic cold front will be pushing through Louisiana Sunday night, and it may conjure up a few showers during the evening ahead of it, but nothing major as once again it will be the forcing itself that generates any light rain with such a dry air mass already in place. Temperatures Sunday night will bottom out in the low to mid 30s with a quick chance of showers in the evening before clearing overnight. It will become very windy as well with NNW winds over 20 mph at times. The end of the forecast period is interesting to say the least. It will certainly be cold, but it is the prospects of precipitation that make this a difficult forecast. I won't be specific at this point, but models indicate a continually active Southern Stream. The air mass over the Gulf coast at this time will be supportive for frozen precipitation, it's just a matter of will there be any sort of low or upper level feature to generate moisture. This is something that bears watching in the coming days, but the players on the field for the first full work week of the new year. For now, I will leave out mention of precipitation in the day 6-7 period, but indicate Partly Cloudy skies and very cold temperatures with hard freeze conditions likely by Tuesday morning. Highs will struggle to make it to 40 degrees both Monday and Tuesday, and with the gusty winds continuing wind chills will be a factor as well. Precipitation or not, next week will be cold, and there is the possibility that if we get the direct impact of this Arctic air mass, it will likely be some of the coldest air we've seen in years around these parts. Stay tuned!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 43/56 42/62 37/48 60 100 20 0 0 0
LFT 42/55 41/63 36/47 70 100 20 0 0 0
BPT 44/57 43/64 38/49 60 100 20 0 0 0
AEX 40/53 39/58 33/45 60 100 20 0 0 0
POE 41/54 39/59 34/46 60 100 20 0 0 0
ARA 44/58 43/65 39/50 70 100 20 0 0 0
Tonight...Cloudy with rain redeveloping & becoming likely towards morning. Low 43. NE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Wednesday...Rain. Heavy at times. 1-2" of rainfall expected with isolated higher amounts to 4" possible. High 56. NE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 100%.
Wednesday Night...Cloudy with a 20% chance of rain early. Clearing overnight. Low 42. North wind 10 mph.
New Year's Eve Day...Sunny and Mild. High 62. Light SW wind.
New Year's Eve Night...Partly Cloudy until midnight, then Clear. Colder. Low 37. Becoming Windy. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
New Year's Day...Sunny and Cold. High 48. North wind 10-15 mph.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Wednesday
12-30-09
Low: 43
High: 56
Precip: 100%
Wind: NE 10-15
Thursday
12-31-09
New Year's Eve
Low: 42
High: 62
Precip: 0%
Wind: SW 5-10
Friday
1-1-10
New Year's Day
Low: 37
High: 48
Precip: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Saturday
1-2-10
Low: 30
High: 50
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 10
Sunday
1-3-10
Low: 32
High: 53
Precip: 20%
Wind: NE/NNW 15-25
Monday
1-4-10
Low: 29
High: 39
Precip: 20%
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 15-25
Tuesday
1-5-10
Low: 23
High: 36
Precip: 20%
Wind: N 10-15
W.C.: 15-25
...Marine Forecast...
*Small Craft Advisory.*
Tonight...East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight. A slight chance of rain.
Wednesday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Rain and isolated thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night...West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight. A chance of rain.
Thursday...North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday Night...North winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Friday...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
I hope everyone had a blessed Christmas, and enjoyed time with your family and friends. As we head towards New Years, I am back at it here on the blog, and before I get to the business at hand, just a reminder that I will not post on Thursday/Friday (New Years Eve or New Years Day). I plan on taking the weekend off as well, but as of right now I will be posting on Saturday and Sunday due to an impinging Arctic outbreak. The complete details follow in the discussion.
Also, it's time to count down the Top 10 Weather Events of 2009, and as we end the decade of the 2000s (can you believe it?), it's also time to reveal the Top 10 Weather Events of the 2000s. I will do this over the course of the next few days. Many of you can probably guess what the #1 weather event of the 2000s is here. When compiling this list, I have tried my best to narrow it down to events only significant to the forecast area. Maybe, as time allows our the first part of 2010, I will recap the top weather events elsewhere of the year and decade. I also will rehash the Christmas Eve Tornado Outbreak later this week.
One other reminder before I get to the forecast discussion...the blog will be in holiday/severe weather mode through Sunday. That is, only the forecast discussion,zone forecasts, and the special items discussed above will be displayed. All other features of the blog will return on Monday, January 4. Happy New Year!!!
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...An already exceptionally wet year will be getting wetter as we approach the end of the year and the decade! The pesky, persistent pattern of the fall/winter of 2009-2010 continues to be a nemesis with the next in a never-ending series of Gulf lows ready to traverse the Northern Gulf waters. An area wide freeze occurred this morning with temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s as skies were clear with near calm winds to start the day. Conditions rapidly deteriorated through the day as clouds increased as Western Gulf cyclogenesis occurred. This low combined with a Northern stream upper level impulse sliding into Texas has resulted in widespread rainfall across Texas with snow on the Northern edge of the precip shield from near Dallas into Oklahoma. The initial area of rain with the advancing short wave has moved through SW Louisiana as of this writing, but it will redevelop late tonight as the low gets cranked up. It will mostly be a light, nagging nuisance rain tonight and early Wednesday, but it will be heavy at times Wednesday as the low traverses the coastal waters from SW to NE. This low will track much closer to the coast than its predecessor, so you can expect much more in the way of rainfall activity. Rainfall amounts will average 1-2" with isolated amounts up to 4" possible through Wednesday night. It will take pretty much all day for the rain to exit stage right as the low pulls away. Some improvement will be noted by the afternoon as the low pushes towards SE Louisiana. No severe weather will be expected for this short term period tonight through Wednesday. The unseasonably cool weather will continue for Wednesday with highs in the mid 50s for most locations with the rain throughout the day. Marked improvement occurs by Wednesday night with drier air entraining into the area in the wake of the departing low. A chance of rain will be maintained into early Wednesday night before skies clear overnight. Lows for Wednesday night/Thursday morning will be in the 40s area wide.
New Year's Eve on Thursday should be a nice day as an area of high pressure moves in behind the departing low. Temperatures will reach normal to above normal levels in the lower 60s, but this will be a short-lived occurrence as at this same time another strong cold front will be waiting in the wings in the continued NW flow aloft at the surface. This front will surge through the area late Thursday evening into Thursday night. It will be a quick mover, and a moisture starved front, so rain chances are limited ahead of this boundary. I certainly wouldn't rule out the forcing associated with the front being able to generate a few showers, but all in all just some clouds are expected as the boundary quickly pushes into the Gulf of Mexico. An embedded short wave directly behind this front in the continuing NW flow aloft will be dropping into Southern Arkansas, and this may conjure up a few snow flakes for the Northern half of the state New Year's Eve night. No such luck here, just clear and cold. New Year's Eve temperatures such fall into the mid 30s by sunrise New Year's Day. A wind chill in the 20s is expected with clear skies. New Year's Day will be a clear and cold day. After the cold morning start, afternoon highs are only expected to reach the upper 40s at best. The new year and decade will start on a rather benign note.
More nice weather is in the offing for Saturday as high pressure dominates. Sunny skies are expected, and will remain cold with another freeze expected nearly area wide. Lows will range from the upper 20s to the lower 30s, this will be similar to Tuesday morning across the area. Afternoon highs will fare a bit better reaching the lower 50s. The first weekend of 2010 should be a dry one, but cold. Sunday looks uneventful at least to start out with temperatures again near the freezing mark, and highs in the low to mid 50s underneath sunny skies. A very interesting end of the forecast period is shaping up beginning with Sunday night. A very strong Arctic cold front will be pushing through Louisiana Sunday night, and it may conjure up a few showers during the evening ahead of it, but nothing major as once again it will be the forcing itself that generates any light rain with such a dry air mass already in place. Temperatures Sunday night will bottom out in the low to mid 30s with a quick chance of showers in the evening before clearing overnight. It will become very windy as well with NNW winds over 20 mph at times. The end of the forecast period is interesting to say the least. It will certainly be cold, but it is the prospects of precipitation that make this a difficult forecast. I won't be specific at this point, but models indicate a continually active Southern Stream. The air mass over the Gulf coast at this time will be supportive for frozen precipitation, it's just a matter of will there be any sort of low or upper level feature to generate moisture. This is something that bears watching in the coming days, but the players on the field for the first full work week of the new year. For now, I will leave out mention of precipitation in the day 6-7 period, but indicate Partly Cloudy skies and very cold temperatures with hard freeze conditions likely by Tuesday morning. Highs will struggle to make it to 40 degrees both Monday and Tuesday, and with the gusty winds continuing wind chills will be a factor as well. Precipitation or not, next week will be cold, and there is the possibility that if we get the direct impact of this Arctic air mass, it will likely be some of the coldest air we've seen in years around these parts. Stay tuned!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 43/56 42/62 37/48 60 100 20 0 0 0
LFT 42/55 41/63 36/47 70 100 20 0 0 0
BPT 44/57 43/64 38/49 60 100 20 0 0 0
AEX 40/53 39/58 33/45 60 100 20 0 0 0
POE 41/54 39/59 34/46 60 100 20 0 0 0
ARA 44/58 43/65 39/50 70 100 20 0 0 0
Tonight...Cloudy with rain redeveloping & becoming likely towards morning. Low 43. NE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Wednesday...Rain. Heavy at times. 1-2" of rainfall expected with isolated higher amounts to 4" possible. High 56. NE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 100%.
Wednesday Night...Cloudy with a 20% chance of rain early. Clearing overnight. Low 42. North wind 10 mph.
New Year's Eve Day...Sunny and Mild. High 62. Light SW wind.
New Year's Eve Night...Partly Cloudy until midnight, then Clear. Colder. Low 37. Becoming Windy. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
New Year's Day...Sunny and Cold. High 48. North wind 10-15 mph.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Wednesday
12-30-09
Low: 43
High: 56
Precip: 100%
Wind: NE 10-15
Thursday
12-31-09
New Year's Eve
Low: 42
High: 62
Precip: 0%
Wind: SW 5-10
Friday
1-1-10
New Year's Day
Low: 37
High: 48
Precip: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Saturday
1-2-10
Low: 30
High: 50
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 10
Sunday
1-3-10
Low: 32
High: 53
Precip: 20%
Wind: NE/NNW 15-25
Monday
1-4-10
Low: 29
High: 39
Precip: 20%
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 15-25
Tuesday
1-5-10
Low: 23
High: 36
Precip: 20%
Wind: N 10-15
W.C.: 15-25
...Marine Forecast...
*Small Craft Advisory.*
Tonight...East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight. A slight chance of rain.
Wednesday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Rain and isolated thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night...West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight. A chance of rain.
Thursday...North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday Night...North winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Friday...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Cold & Dry Christmas...Cold & Unsettled for Remainder of 2009...
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Christmas Eve
Merry Christmas!!!
The forecast discussion is forthcoming, but first here's my Christmas message...
For Unto Us a Child Was Born...
Christmas is the most wonderful time of the year! 2009 has been a rough year economically, and in many other ways for many people, but no matter what your situation, there is one constant that has always been since it all began 2009 years ago! Christmas is a time when we celebrate being with our family and friends. It is a time to decorate our homes and offices with lights and trees, etc, and listen to the great music and watch movies associated with Christmas. The hustle and bustle of the Christmas season comes to an end on Christmas Eve, as all the shopping is done as we scrounge around town looking for the perfect gift for our loved ones. It is a time to pray, and attend church with our families, and reflect and be thankful for all of the blessings given us by God. The presents are nice, and the giving and receiving is nice, but we don't dare forget the real meaning of the season! For you see, 2009 years ago, we received the greatest Gift of all!
God loved us so much, the He gave us the gift of a Savior! His son, Jesus Christ...He gave us His one and only Son, so that whosoever believes in Him, will not perish, but will have eternal life! Jesus gave His life for us, to save us from eternal damnation! I can't think of a greater gift than knowing that Someone could love me that much, to die for me and take all of my transgressions away.
As we celebrate another Christmas, let us all remember that it isn't what we celebrate on this day, but Who. The Birth of Christ should be celebrated and lived inside and everyone of us not only on Christmas, but on every day. I feel that in all the hustle and bustle of the Christmas season, that this, the most Significant reason, for the day is forgotten! This Christmas miracle that God made, is the single most significant story of all, and Christmas is the most significant day of the whole year! What/who would we be without God and without his Son, Jesus Christ? Do you know this Jesus I speak of? It seems that a minority is trying to control the majority these days...it's Happy Holidays instead of Merry Christmas! No, it's Merry Christmas, it's always has been, is now, and always will be! Yes, this is a free country, but no one can tell us believers that we can't say Merry Christmas anymore, or keep God first in our lives and in everything we do! They don't have to believe it, they have that right, but don't tell the Christians of this world that we can't express our faith and belief. To me, Happy Holidays means all the holidays...Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Years, Hanukkah, etc. Merry Christmas! Keep Christ in Christmas!
I hope everyone truly does enjoy whatever you get for Christmas this year, and every year, but never forget the real reason for the season, and the fact that 2009 years ago on that first Christmas on a cold winter night in a small town in Israel, you received the greatest Gift you'll ever need. As you gather with your family and friends this Christmas, don't forget to pray, and also remember those less fortunate than yourself. Also, lest not forget the brave men and women of the U.S. military, who fight for our freedoms everyday! Y'all truly are our other real heroes!
In closing, I wish everyone a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year! I have so much to be thankful for, and I hope you do as well. May God's never-ending blessings be with all of you this Christmas, and forever. Happy Birthday to you, my Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ! I hope 2010 brings everyone all the best, and that God continues to be at the forefront of your life. Thank you all for viewing the blog this year, and helping me getting it off the ground and running! Look for bigger and better things on this blog in 2010! I will have more forecasts posted before the end of the year, after a few days off for Christmas! Merry Christmas and God bless!
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Severe weather threat materialized in the worst way this morning! Several tornadoes were reported across the Eastern portion of the forecast area mainly over Acadiana from Vermilion and Acadia Parish northward towards St. Landry and Evangeline Parish. The worst of the damage was in Acadia Parish were multiple tornadoes occurred, and one fatality occurred in Scott in Lafayette Parish when a tree was toppled by the strong winds, and fell on a home. A 44 year old man was killed. A complete damage assessment will be conducted by the NWS in Lake Charles, and more information will be available in the coming days. For the immediate Lake Charles area, we came out of this relatively unscathed, with no damage reported in Calcasieu Parish, and no Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Warning as the squall line moved through shortly after sunrise. Gusty winds and heavy rains were the main weather story here, and we were lucky! Our thoughts & prayers go out to our neighbors in Acadiana! Rough weather also occurred in East Texas with a strong tornado near Lufkin, TX last night and another near Longview between Shreveport and Dallas.
Quite a contrast in weather today with strong CAA in place, and temperatures falling this evening. This storm system is quite dynamic, and this is perfectly illustrated just off to our NW with near blizzard conditions in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, and a massive blizzard across Oklahoma. All of this snow is on the backside of the departing cold front. This is the Upper Level Low on the backside of the main trough, and associated cold front. The ULL will not bring any snow to our area, once again dashing our hopes for a White Christmas, however, a low stratus deck will be present this evening as CAA strengthens as the ULL makes its closest approach to the forecast area. Some snow flurries may occur across North Louisiana from Shreveport to Monroe, but no accumulations are expected. I guess if we can't have snow, at least we'll have the cold, to make it feel like Christmas. If you remember last year, we had temperatures near 80 on Christmas...not in 2009! Temperatures have been pretty steady this afternoon since falling into the mid to upper 50s behind the front this morning, but a more rapid downward spiral will begin after sunset as CAA intensifies in response to the passage of the ULL. Winds will remain quite strong as well with a large pressure differential across the area. The winds will gust well over 30 mph at times this evening, before subsiding in the overnight hours as high pressure from Canada builds in. Skies will clear overnight as well as the ULL pulls NE into the Ozarks. No mention of precipitation is highlighted in the forecast on this Christmas Eve. The strong North winds and cold temperatures will make Santa feel right at home as he comes to SW Louisiana overnight. Kids, don't forget the milk and cookies!!! Bundle up when heading out to church!!!
Christmas Day will be a beautiful day with lots of sunshine and the cold weather in place. Highs will struggle to reach 50 across the forecast area as CAA continues. The winds will continue to subside during the day as the high pressure moves closer to SW Louisiana. Temperatures around freezing are expected across the forecast area as we open presents in the morning. Upper 20s to near 30 seems logical from Toledo Bend to Marksville, and temperatures around 30-32 seems like a good target for the I-10 corridor with temperatures in the 33-35 range for coastal areas. Highs on Christmas Day will be in the mid 40s north to lower 50s at the coast. Clear and cold weather continues for Christmas Night with another night of temperatures dropping to similar readings to tonight...upper 20s to lower 30s. An area wide light freeze is expected with winds near calm. The clear skies will last into Saturday, but this is when some changes occur. The persistent, active El Nino pattern of December 2009 gets revved up again. Models depict another Gulf low developing as the Subtropical Jet Stream gets active once again. The cold air at the surface will be overridden by a layer of warm air associated with Gulf cyclogenesis. The end result here will be an increase in clouds on Saturday, and a chance of a light nuisance rain by Saturday evening through Saturday night. Rainfall amounts should be light, but it will be a cold rain. Temperatures will likely not get out of the 40s on Saturday, and fall into the 30s once again Saturday night. However, enough air mass modification is expected to keep temperatures above freezing, therefore, only a cold rain is expected. This is subject to change especially if air mass modification doesn't occur. Rainfall amounts should generally by a 1/4" or less. Rain should mainly be more widespread along and South of I-10, but a chance of showers will certainly exist for Northern portions as well.
This Gulf low is expected to be a fast mover, and dry weather returns for Sunday. There should be plenty of sunshine on Sunday, but it will remain chilly as a NW flow aloft prevails. Highs will be below seasonable levels again in the upper 40s to lower 50s. The clear and cold trend will continue into Monday with another round of freezing temperatures in the offing for Sunday night and Monday morning, perhaps a few degrees colder than it will be tonight in the mid to upper 20s. I will forecast near 30 for now, but it certainly seems plausible that it could be colder than that with the position of the polar vortex. Dry and cold continues into Tuesday as a large dome of Canadian high pressure continues to dominate the forecast along the Gulf coast, but as fate would have it, Gulf cyclogenesis is progged to occur once again on Tuesday. This low appears to be a bit stronger than the one that will move through the Northern Gulf waters on Saturday. Rain will be likely for the entire area from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. Rainfall amounts could exceed an inch with this system, and there is still some speculation as to the eventual track of the low. This one could be much closer to the immediate coast, resulting in heavier rains across the area, but I will fine tune this after Christmas. The consensus is though for another El Nino type system at mid-week. Temperatures for this time frame should modify, but will not by any means be warm as the period of below normal temperatures continue. Lows will moderate into the upper 30s to lower 40s, and highs will be only make it to the mid 40s on Wednesday with the rain. The cold weather continues to close out 2009 on Thursday, New Year's Eve. A fresh area of high pressure builds in to close out a wet year on a dry night, as the mid-week low spins away from the area. Lows will be in the 30s once again, and highs only make it into the mid to upper 40s. 2010 begins on Friday, and New Year's Day 2010 is looking dry and cold at the moment with another bout of freezing temperatures possible on New Year's Morning. The remainder of New Year's weekend, beyond this forecast period, looks cold and unsettled with another Gulf low possible, as well as the potential for a Northern stream system that could stir up some more cold rain over the latter part of the holiday weekend. In closing, rumor has it that the strong winds are speeding up Santa's arrival!
Track Santa here
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 30/48 29/47 37/51 0 0 0 30 40 0
LFT 31/48 28/48 36/50 0 0 0 30 40 0
BPT 30/49 31/49 37/52 0 0 0 30 40 0
AEX 28/45 26/46 34/48 0 0 0 20 30 0
POE 28/46 27/46 34/49 0 0 0 20 30 0
ARA 32/49 30/48 38/52 0 0 0 30 40 0
Tonight...Decreasing Clouds, Cold, and Windy. Becoming Clear after Midnight. Low 30. WNW wind 20-25 mph and gusty, gradually diminishing overnight. Wind chill readings 20-25 by sunrise.
Christmas Day...Sunny and Cold. High 48. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Christmas Night...Clear and Cold. Low 29. Light North wind.
Saturday...Sunny in the morning, becoming Mostly Cloudy in the afternoon with a 30% chance of light rain developing late. Continued Cold. High 47. NE wind 10-15 mph.
Saturday Night...Mostly Cloudy and Not as Cold with a 40% chance of light rain. Rain ending after midnight. Low 37. NE wind 10 mph.
Sunday...Becoming Mostly Sunny and Continued Cool. High 51. North wind 10 mph.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
12-25-09
Christmas Day
Low: 30
High: 48
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
W.C.: 20-30
Saturday
12-26-09
Low: 29
High: 47
Rain: 30% PM
Wind: NE 10-15
W.C.: 25-40
Sunday
12-27-09
Low: 37
High: 51
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
Monday
12-28-09
Low: 38
Tonight...West winds 20 to 30 knots becoming northwest 15 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Friday...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
Friday Night...North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Seas 1 foot.
Saturday...East winds around 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. A chance of rain.
Saturday Night...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of rain.
Sunday...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Merry Christmas and God bless!
-DM-
Christmas Eve
Merry Christmas!!!
The forecast discussion is forthcoming, but first here's my Christmas message...
For Unto Us a Child Was Born...
Christmas is the most wonderful time of the year! 2009 has been a rough year economically, and in many other ways for many people, but no matter what your situation, there is one constant that has always been since it all began 2009 years ago! Christmas is a time when we celebrate being with our family and friends. It is a time to decorate our homes and offices with lights and trees, etc, and listen to the great music and watch movies associated with Christmas. The hustle and bustle of the Christmas season comes to an end on Christmas Eve, as all the shopping is done as we scrounge around town looking for the perfect gift for our loved ones. It is a time to pray, and attend church with our families, and reflect and be thankful for all of the blessings given us by God. The presents are nice, and the giving and receiving is nice, but we don't dare forget the real meaning of the season! For you see, 2009 years ago, we received the greatest Gift of all!
God loved us so much, the He gave us the gift of a Savior! His son, Jesus Christ...He gave us His one and only Son, so that whosoever believes in Him, will not perish, but will have eternal life! Jesus gave His life for us, to save us from eternal damnation! I can't think of a greater gift than knowing that Someone could love me that much, to die for me and take all of my transgressions away.
As we celebrate another Christmas, let us all remember that it isn't what we celebrate on this day, but Who. The Birth of Christ should be celebrated and lived inside and everyone of us not only on Christmas, but on every day. I feel that in all the hustle and bustle of the Christmas season, that this, the most Significant reason, for the day is forgotten! This Christmas miracle that God made, is the single most significant story of all, and Christmas is the most significant day of the whole year! What/who would we be without God and without his Son, Jesus Christ? Do you know this Jesus I speak of? It seems that a minority is trying to control the majority these days...it's Happy Holidays instead of Merry Christmas! No, it's Merry Christmas, it's always has been, is now, and always will be! Yes, this is a free country, but no one can tell us believers that we can't say Merry Christmas anymore, or keep God first in our lives and in everything we do! They don't have to believe it, they have that right, but don't tell the Christians of this world that we can't express our faith and belief. To me, Happy Holidays means all the holidays...Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Years, Hanukkah, etc. Merry Christmas! Keep Christ in Christmas!
I hope everyone truly does enjoy whatever you get for Christmas this year, and every year, but never forget the real reason for the season, and the fact that 2009 years ago on that first Christmas on a cold winter night in a small town in Israel, you received the greatest Gift you'll ever need. As you gather with your family and friends this Christmas, don't forget to pray, and also remember those less fortunate than yourself. Also, lest not forget the brave men and women of the U.S. military, who fight for our freedoms everyday! Y'all truly are our other real heroes!
In closing, I wish everyone a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year! I have so much to be thankful for, and I hope you do as well. May God's never-ending blessings be with all of you this Christmas, and forever. Happy Birthday to you, my Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ! I hope 2010 brings everyone all the best, and that God continues to be at the forefront of your life. Thank you all for viewing the blog this year, and helping me getting it off the ground and running! Look for bigger and better things on this blog in 2010! I will have more forecasts posted before the end of the year, after a few days off for Christmas! Merry Christmas and God bless!
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Severe weather threat materialized in the worst way this morning! Several tornadoes were reported across the Eastern portion of the forecast area mainly over Acadiana from Vermilion and Acadia Parish northward towards St. Landry and Evangeline Parish. The worst of the damage was in Acadia Parish were multiple tornadoes occurred, and one fatality occurred in Scott in Lafayette Parish when a tree was toppled by the strong winds, and fell on a home. A 44 year old man was killed. A complete damage assessment will be conducted by the NWS in Lake Charles, and more information will be available in the coming days. For the immediate Lake Charles area, we came out of this relatively unscathed, with no damage reported in Calcasieu Parish, and no Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Warning as the squall line moved through shortly after sunrise. Gusty winds and heavy rains were the main weather story here, and we were lucky! Our thoughts & prayers go out to our neighbors in Acadiana! Rough weather also occurred in East Texas with a strong tornado near Lufkin, TX last night and another near Longview between Shreveport and Dallas.
Quite a contrast in weather today with strong CAA in place, and temperatures falling this evening. This storm system is quite dynamic, and this is perfectly illustrated just off to our NW with near blizzard conditions in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, and a massive blizzard across Oklahoma. All of this snow is on the backside of the departing cold front. This is the Upper Level Low on the backside of the main trough, and associated cold front. The ULL will not bring any snow to our area, once again dashing our hopes for a White Christmas, however, a low stratus deck will be present this evening as CAA strengthens as the ULL makes its closest approach to the forecast area. Some snow flurries may occur across North Louisiana from Shreveport to Monroe, but no accumulations are expected. I guess if we can't have snow, at least we'll have the cold, to make it feel like Christmas. If you remember last year, we had temperatures near 80 on Christmas...not in 2009! Temperatures have been pretty steady this afternoon since falling into the mid to upper 50s behind the front this morning, but a more rapid downward spiral will begin after sunset as CAA intensifies in response to the passage of the ULL. Winds will remain quite strong as well with a large pressure differential across the area. The winds will gust well over 30 mph at times this evening, before subsiding in the overnight hours as high pressure from Canada builds in. Skies will clear overnight as well as the ULL pulls NE into the Ozarks. No mention of precipitation is highlighted in the forecast on this Christmas Eve. The strong North winds and cold temperatures will make Santa feel right at home as he comes to SW Louisiana overnight. Kids, don't forget the milk and cookies!!! Bundle up when heading out to church!!!
Christmas Day will be a beautiful day with lots of sunshine and the cold weather in place. Highs will struggle to reach 50 across the forecast area as CAA continues. The winds will continue to subside during the day as the high pressure moves closer to SW Louisiana. Temperatures around freezing are expected across the forecast area as we open presents in the morning. Upper 20s to near 30 seems logical from Toledo Bend to Marksville, and temperatures around 30-32 seems like a good target for the I-10 corridor with temperatures in the 33-35 range for coastal areas. Highs on Christmas Day will be in the mid 40s north to lower 50s at the coast. Clear and cold weather continues for Christmas Night with another night of temperatures dropping to similar readings to tonight...upper 20s to lower 30s. An area wide light freeze is expected with winds near calm. The clear skies will last into Saturday, but this is when some changes occur. The persistent, active El Nino pattern of December 2009 gets revved up again. Models depict another Gulf low developing as the Subtropical Jet Stream gets active once again. The cold air at the surface will be overridden by a layer of warm air associated with Gulf cyclogenesis. The end result here will be an increase in clouds on Saturday, and a chance of a light nuisance rain by Saturday evening through Saturday night. Rainfall amounts should be light, but it will be a cold rain. Temperatures will likely not get out of the 40s on Saturday, and fall into the 30s once again Saturday night. However, enough air mass modification is expected to keep temperatures above freezing, therefore, only a cold rain is expected. This is subject to change especially if air mass modification doesn't occur. Rainfall amounts should generally by a 1/4" or less. Rain should mainly be more widespread along and South of I-10, but a chance of showers will certainly exist for Northern portions as well.
This Gulf low is expected to be a fast mover, and dry weather returns for Sunday. There should be plenty of sunshine on Sunday, but it will remain chilly as a NW flow aloft prevails. Highs will be below seasonable levels again in the upper 40s to lower 50s. The clear and cold trend will continue into Monday with another round of freezing temperatures in the offing for Sunday night and Monday morning, perhaps a few degrees colder than it will be tonight in the mid to upper 20s. I will forecast near 30 for now, but it certainly seems plausible that it could be colder than that with the position of the polar vortex. Dry and cold continues into Tuesday as a large dome of Canadian high pressure continues to dominate the forecast along the Gulf coast, but as fate would have it, Gulf cyclogenesis is progged to occur once again on Tuesday. This low appears to be a bit stronger than the one that will move through the Northern Gulf waters on Saturday. Rain will be likely for the entire area from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. Rainfall amounts could exceed an inch with this system, and there is still some speculation as to the eventual track of the low. This one could be much closer to the immediate coast, resulting in heavier rains across the area, but I will fine tune this after Christmas. The consensus is though for another El Nino type system at mid-week. Temperatures for this time frame should modify, but will not by any means be warm as the period of below normal temperatures continue. Lows will moderate into the upper 30s to lower 40s, and highs will be only make it to the mid 40s on Wednesday with the rain. The cold weather continues to close out 2009 on Thursday, New Year's Eve. A fresh area of high pressure builds in to close out a wet year on a dry night, as the mid-week low spins away from the area. Lows will be in the 30s once again, and highs only make it into the mid to upper 40s. 2010 begins on Friday, and New Year's Day 2010 is looking dry and cold at the moment with another bout of freezing temperatures possible on New Year's Morning. The remainder of New Year's weekend, beyond this forecast period, looks cold and unsettled with another Gulf low possible, as well as the potential for a Northern stream system that could stir up some more cold rain over the latter part of the holiday weekend. In closing, rumor has it that the strong winds are speeding up Santa's arrival!
Track Santa here
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 30/48 29/47 37/51 0 0 0 30 40 0
LFT 31/48 28/48 36/50 0 0 0 30 40 0
BPT 30/49 31/49 37/52 0 0 0 30 40 0
AEX 28/45 26/46 34/48 0 0 0 20 30 0
POE 28/46 27/46 34/49 0 0 0 20 30 0
ARA 32/49 30/48 38/52 0 0 0 30 40 0
Tonight...Decreasing Clouds, Cold, and Windy. Becoming Clear after Midnight. Low 30. WNW wind 20-25 mph and gusty, gradually diminishing overnight. Wind chill readings 20-25 by sunrise.
Christmas Day...Sunny and Cold. High 48. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Christmas Night...Clear and Cold. Low 29. Light North wind.
Saturday...Sunny in the morning, becoming Mostly Cloudy in the afternoon with a 30% chance of light rain developing late. Continued Cold. High 47. NE wind 10-15 mph.
Saturday Night...Mostly Cloudy and Not as Cold with a 40% chance of light rain. Rain ending after midnight. Low 37. NE wind 10 mph.
Sunday...Becoming Mostly Sunny and Continued Cool. High 51. North wind 10 mph.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
12-25-09
Christmas Day
Low: 30
High: 48
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
W.C.: 20-30
Saturday
12-26-09
Low: 29
High: 47
Rain: 30% PM
Wind: NE 10-15
W.C.: 25-40
Sunday
12-27-09
Low: 37
High: 51
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
Monday
12-28-09
Low: 30
High: 48
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
W.C.: 20-30
Tuesday
12-29-09
Low: 28
High: 46
Rain: 30%
Wind: NE 10-15
W.C.: 30s
Wednesday
12-30-09
Low: 38
High: 44
Rain: 60%
Wind: NNE 10-15
W.C.: 25-30
Thursday
12-31-09
New Year's Eve
Low: 31
High: 46
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
W.C.: 20-25
...Marine Forecast...
*Gale Warning in effect until 6a.m. Christmas Day.*
*Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6a.m. until noon Christmas Day.*
Friday...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
Friday Night...North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Seas 1 foot.
Saturday...East winds around 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. A chance of rain.
Saturday Night...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of rain.
Sunday...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Merry Christmas and God bless!
-DM-
Severe Weather Threat Over...
Thursday, December 24, 2009
The severe weather threat has ended across the forecast areas this morning. The cold front has pushed through, and a much more stable air mass is being ushered in with much colder air. Clouds and/or intermittent light rain and drizzle will prevail through for the next few hours well into this afternoon as the strong Upper Level Low continues to push Eastward across North Texas. Our neighbors to the North (North Texas, Oklahoma) will see blizzard conditions associated with this feature. Snow may fall as far south as the I-20 corridor tonight, but no snow accumulations are expected in Louisiana. No snow here of any kind here, we'll clear up this evening, with a beautiful Christmas Eve on tap with clear skies and cold weather....the way Christmas should be!
Much of the area came through this system unscathed as far as severe weather is concerned, but over in Acadiana there were several reports of tornadoes. One fatality has resulted as of the stormy weather this morning when a tree fell on a house in Scott. I will have a complete run down of storm reports later on. We can now turn our attention to the all important Christmas forecast, and I will have a complete Christmas Eve forecast package available later on this afternoon. In short, it looks dry and cold for the duration of Christmas weekend with lows in the 20s and 30s and highs in the 40s and 50s. It will stay cold through New Years the way it stands right now. A cold rain is expected around Tuesday and Wednesday as yet another Gulf low forms in the never-ending El Nino pattern. Have a great day and Merry Chrismtas!
-DM-
The severe weather threat has ended across the forecast areas this morning. The cold front has pushed through, and a much more stable air mass is being ushered in with much colder air. Clouds and/or intermittent light rain and drizzle will prevail through for the next few hours well into this afternoon as the strong Upper Level Low continues to push Eastward across North Texas. Our neighbors to the North (North Texas, Oklahoma) will see blizzard conditions associated with this feature. Snow may fall as far south as the I-20 corridor tonight, but no snow accumulations are expected in Louisiana. No snow here of any kind here, we'll clear up this evening, with a beautiful Christmas Eve on tap with clear skies and cold weather....the way Christmas should be!
Much of the area came through this system unscathed as far as severe weather is concerned, but over in Acadiana there were several reports of tornadoes. One fatality has resulted as of the stormy weather this morning when a tree fell on a house in Scott. I will have a complete run down of storm reports later on. We can now turn our attention to the all important Christmas forecast, and I will have a complete Christmas Eve forecast package available later on this afternoon. In short, it looks dry and cold for the duration of Christmas weekend with lows in the 20s and 30s and highs in the 40s and 50s. It will stay cold through New Years the way it stands right now. A cold rain is expected around Tuesday and Wednesday as yet another Gulf low forms in the never-ending El Nino pattern. Have a great day and Merry Chrismtas!
-DM-
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 12Z (6a.m.) Thursday...
The much advertised severe weather threat is unraveling tonight. A Tornado Watch has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center until 12Z (6a.m.) Thursday. Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity have developed across the area, and an upward trend will continue for the next few hours as the vigorous storm system brings its cold front through the area overnight towards sunrise Christmas Eve. All modes of severe weather are still possible. A line of showers and thunderstorms is organizing West of Houston at this hour, and another line will sweep through along the front around dawn Thursday. The Tornado Watch includes the following locations in the forecast area in SE Texas and SW Louisiana: Jefferson County including Beaumont and Port Arthur, Orange County including Orange, Hardin County including Lumberton, Tyler County including Woodville, Jasper County including Jasper, and Newton County including Newton...Calcasieu Parish including Lake Charles and Sulphur, Cameron Parish including Cameron, Beauregard Parish including DeRidder, and Vernon Parish including Leesville-Fort Polk.
The driving force behind this weather maker is a strong ULL and negatively tilted trough. The ULL is still hanging back well to our West as you can see by this water vapor imagery.
The ULL is clearly visible back over the Desert SW into West Texas. As the system is energized tonight by the Jet Stream it will accelerate off to the East, and push through our area around daybreak to mid-day Thursday. The worst of the weather should move into the Golden Triangle between 4 and 5a.m. and into the Lake Charles area between 5 and 6 a.m. The remainder of the forecast area isn't currently under the Tornado Watch, but this will likely change as the night progresses. The MCS will be advancing into Acadiana between 8-9p.m. Conditions will vastly improve by noon Christmas Eve across the area as drier and colder air moves in behind the strong system. Temperatures will fall from the 60s overnight tonight into the 40s Thursday afternoon. A prolonged cold period will be established in the wake of this system, and I believe we won't see 60 degrees again until after New Years. Stay tuned for more!
-DM-
The driving force behind this weather maker is a strong ULL and negatively tilted trough. The ULL is still hanging back well to our West as you can see by this water vapor imagery.
The ULL is clearly visible back over the Desert SW into West Texas. As the system is energized tonight by the Jet Stream it will accelerate off to the East, and push through our area around daybreak to mid-day Thursday. The worst of the weather should move into the Golden Triangle between 4 and 5a.m. and into the Lake Charles area between 5 and 6 a.m. The remainder of the forecast area isn't currently under the Tornado Watch, but this will likely change as the night progresses. The MCS will be advancing into Acadiana between 8-9p.m. Conditions will vastly improve by noon Christmas Eve across the area as drier and colder air moves in behind the strong system. Temperatures will fall from the 60s overnight tonight into the 40s Thursday afternoon. A prolonged cold period will be established in the wake of this system, and I believe we won't see 60 degrees again until after New Years. Stay tuned for more!
-DM-
Severe Weather Threat Unfolding...
The anticipated Christmas week severe weather event is beginning to unfold at this hour. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has issued a large Tornado Watch box encompassing portions of 4 states. The watch extends from North to South from SE Oklahoma into extreme SW Arkansas, a large portion of East Texas, and West Louisiana. It includes such municipalities as McAlester, OK, Texarkana, AR and TX, Shreveport-Bossier City, Tyler, Longview, and Marshall, TX, Bryan-College Station, TX, Lufkin, TX, Jasper, TX, and DeRidder, Leesville-Fort Polk. It does not include anyone along the I-10 corridor in SE Texas or SW Louisiana, but this is just a harbinger of things to come, and I expect more watches to be issued later on this evening.
The current Tornado Watch is in effect until 3Z Thursday (9p.m. CST- Wednesday), and includes
Beauregard and Vernon Parishes in SW Louisiana, and Jasper, Newton, and Tyler Counties in SE Texas.
More information forthcoming as the event begins to come to fruition.
-DM-
The current Tornado Watch is in effect until 3Z Thursday (9p.m. CST- Wednesday), and includes
Beauregard and Vernon Parishes in SW Louisiana, and Jasper, Newton, and Tyler Counties in SE Texas.
More information forthcoming as the event begins to come to fruition.
-DM-
Severe Weather Tonight into Thursday Morning...Prolonged Cold Spell Just in Time for Christmas...
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
*Christmas Week Severe Weather Outbreak Slated for Tonight.*
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...All is calm this morning in anticipation of tonight's severe weather event. A few showers moved across the area overnight as a weak disturbance out in front of the main system moved from SW to NE across the forecast area in the established SW flow aloft. Most of the shower activity was on the light side. Mild conditions prevailed overnight with temperatures closer to the normal high for late December as opposed to the normal low. Overnight minimums were around 60. The mild weather will continue today in advance of the vigorous late December storm. Overcast conditions exist at present, and this be the case throughout this last full work day before Christmas. Air mass or streamer showers will occur at random across the forecast area today. The widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is slated for tonight into the morning hours of Christmas Eve.
The sharp trough and associated cold front will be advancing SE through the day. As this occurs, a convergence zone will be established across the area. Showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area late this afternoon, and become more widespread and increase in intensity and areal coverage in the overnight hours. The dynamics and kinematics associated with this system continue to be very impressive, and all the parameters to produce severe weather are in place. This is a very dynamic system, and you will see just how dynamic it is over the next couple of days with severe weather around here, and a big blizzard through the Mid West. Along with the sharpening and increasingly negatively tilted trough, there is the presence of a upper level low and surface low as generated by Jet Stream energy. This has occurred as the Polar Jet and Subtropical Jet came together out West. The upper level low currently over AZ/NM will move Eastward through the day, and add to the lift and instability across the area with its associated cold air aloft. The trough digs into West Texas this evening, and then heads Eastward via a very strong Jet Stream which will be in place overhead (winds up to 100 kts. aloft). The trailing cold front and surface low will be marching Eastward at this same time. The lifting mechanism will be moving into an environment with strong dynamics from the Jet Stream, with plenty of instability and wind shear. Storms will fire along and out ahead of the front across Texas later this afternoon.
The environment in place is favorable for severe weather genesis. At present, the atmosphere remains largely capped in between last night's short wave and the advancing storm. The cap will erode this afternoon as forcing increases across the area ahead of said front. I expect showers and thunderstorms to increase in earnest after 22Z (4p.m.) An environment favorable for supercells will be in place initially out ahead of the front. A squall line (MCS) will initiate over Texas late this afternoon. The low-level jet in place will create a sheared environment, and thus lead to a tornado threat across the forecast area. However, the highest shear environment should be North of the I-10 corridor across East Texas into the ARK-LA-TEX and down towards the Northern half of SW Louisiana. There's no skill in pinpointing a specific location where a tornado will occur, but it certainly appears that the most likely area to see a tornado will be in the region highlighted above. Tornadoes are possible across the entire area, but points not mentioned above including Lake Charles & Vicinity should reside in an environment that will be less sheared. All modes of severe weather will be possible across the entire forecast area, and while the amount of shear may limit the tornado threat across the Southern half of the area, the damaging wind threat is greater. Hail will be a threat as well with the cold air aloft as judging by the advancing ULL. The environment will transition from a supercellular environment to an MCS environment overnight. What this basically means is that the mode of severe weather will shift from more of a tornado threat to a damaging wind and hail threat with the squall line. Tornadoes can't be entirely ruled out with the squall line as well, as the environment will favor what is known as a LEWP (Line Echo Wave Pattern). A LEWP is basically an area of rotation embedded in the squall line. This is caused by the presence of wind shear in the upper levels. The tornado threat is typically higher in advance of a squall line, because the supercells feed off of the CAPE values (Convective Available Potential Energy), and moisture from the Gulf. Whereas, the squall line generally takes up all the available energy as it moves in. There is a large amount of energy that will be displaced later tonight into early Christmas Eve.
Aside from the severe weather threat, a heavy rainfall threat will be realized as well. 2-4" of rainfall is anticipated especially since we should see numerous showers and thunderstorms in advance of the main component of the system overnight. This will add insult to injury with the grounds still very saturated from all the rain during the first half of this month. Flash flooding will likely be an issue to contend with whether we get off unscathed with the severe weather or not. The front currently extends from Eastern OK down into North Texas between Wichita Falls and Dallas, and further South into the Rio Grande Valley. The squall line should form late this afternoon advance into SE Texas up towards the Shreveport area between 0Z and 6Z Thursday (6p.m.-Midnight CST). The large ridge of high pressure that controlled our weather over the weekend and Monday is still centered off the SE U.S. coast, and is only slowly pushing away. This will likely result in a slow Eastward progression of the MCS overnight. I expect it to be near Lake Charles between 5 and 7a.m., and into the Acadiana area between 8 and 10a.m. The severe weather threat will come to an end as the squall line pushes on by. The severe weather threat will be maintained overnight, and it stands to be a very long night tonight in the weather office. The severe weather threat ends comes to an end from West to East after daylight Thursday, and before noon for all. The heavy rain threat will come to an end as well during this time, and we'll transition to light rain and/or drizzle Thursday afternoon in response to wrap-around moisture as a CAA takes over. The associated surface low will be moving from West Texas to SE Missouri by Thursday morning.
Temperatures will remain on the mild side until fropa Thursday morning. Beyond this point, a sharp drop in temperatures will occur, and the warm weather will be a distant memory for Christmas. Highs today in the 70s will be replaced with falling temperatures on Christmas Eve. Morning temperatures around 60 will fall into the 40s by Christmas Eve evening. High pressure builds in just in the "Ole Saint" Nick of time for Christmas. Christmas Day looks clear and cold with lows in the low to mid 30s, and highs close to 50. A much colder pattern will be established behind this boundary. It looks quite cold through New Years. I will have all the complete details with the full forecast package tonight. More updates will be forthcoming this afternoon.
Stay tuned for more!
-DM-
*Christmas Week Severe Weather Outbreak Slated for Tonight.*
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...All is calm this morning in anticipation of tonight's severe weather event. A few showers moved across the area overnight as a weak disturbance out in front of the main system moved from SW to NE across the forecast area in the established SW flow aloft. Most of the shower activity was on the light side. Mild conditions prevailed overnight with temperatures closer to the normal high for late December as opposed to the normal low. Overnight minimums were around 60. The mild weather will continue today in advance of the vigorous late December storm. Overcast conditions exist at present, and this be the case throughout this last full work day before Christmas. Air mass or streamer showers will occur at random across the forecast area today. The widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is slated for tonight into the morning hours of Christmas Eve.
The sharp trough and associated cold front will be advancing SE through the day. As this occurs, a convergence zone will be established across the area. Showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area late this afternoon, and become more widespread and increase in intensity and areal coverage in the overnight hours. The dynamics and kinematics associated with this system continue to be very impressive, and all the parameters to produce severe weather are in place. This is a very dynamic system, and you will see just how dynamic it is over the next couple of days with severe weather around here, and a big blizzard through the Mid West. Along with the sharpening and increasingly negatively tilted trough, there is the presence of a upper level low and surface low as generated by Jet Stream energy. This has occurred as the Polar Jet and Subtropical Jet came together out West. The upper level low currently over AZ/NM will move Eastward through the day, and add to the lift and instability across the area with its associated cold air aloft. The trough digs into West Texas this evening, and then heads Eastward via a very strong Jet Stream which will be in place overhead (winds up to 100 kts. aloft). The trailing cold front and surface low will be marching Eastward at this same time. The lifting mechanism will be moving into an environment with strong dynamics from the Jet Stream, with plenty of instability and wind shear. Storms will fire along and out ahead of the front across Texas later this afternoon.
The environment in place is favorable for severe weather genesis. At present, the atmosphere remains largely capped in between last night's short wave and the advancing storm. The cap will erode this afternoon as forcing increases across the area ahead of said front. I expect showers and thunderstorms to increase in earnest after 22Z (4p.m.) An environment favorable for supercells will be in place initially out ahead of the front. A squall line (MCS) will initiate over Texas late this afternoon. The low-level jet in place will create a sheared environment, and thus lead to a tornado threat across the forecast area. However, the highest shear environment should be North of the I-10 corridor across East Texas into the ARK-LA-TEX and down towards the Northern half of SW Louisiana. There's no skill in pinpointing a specific location where a tornado will occur, but it certainly appears that the most likely area to see a tornado will be in the region highlighted above. Tornadoes are possible across the entire area, but points not mentioned above including Lake Charles & Vicinity should reside in an environment that will be less sheared. All modes of severe weather will be possible across the entire forecast area, and while the amount of shear may limit the tornado threat across the Southern half of the area, the damaging wind threat is greater. Hail will be a threat as well with the cold air aloft as judging by the advancing ULL. The environment will transition from a supercellular environment to an MCS environment overnight. What this basically means is that the mode of severe weather will shift from more of a tornado threat to a damaging wind and hail threat with the squall line. Tornadoes can't be entirely ruled out with the squall line as well, as the environment will favor what is known as a LEWP (Line Echo Wave Pattern). A LEWP is basically an area of rotation embedded in the squall line. This is caused by the presence of wind shear in the upper levels. The tornado threat is typically higher in advance of a squall line, because the supercells feed off of the CAPE values (Convective Available Potential Energy), and moisture from the Gulf. Whereas, the squall line generally takes up all the available energy as it moves in. There is a large amount of energy that will be displaced later tonight into early Christmas Eve.
Aside from the severe weather threat, a heavy rainfall threat will be realized as well. 2-4" of rainfall is anticipated especially since we should see numerous showers and thunderstorms in advance of the main component of the system overnight. This will add insult to injury with the grounds still very saturated from all the rain during the first half of this month. Flash flooding will likely be an issue to contend with whether we get off unscathed with the severe weather or not. The front currently extends from Eastern OK down into North Texas between Wichita Falls and Dallas, and further South into the Rio Grande Valley. The squall line should form late this afternoon advance into SE Texas up towards the Shreveport area between 0Z and 6Z Thursday (6p.m.-Midnight CST). The large ridge of high pressure that controlled our weather over the weekend and Monday is still centered off the SE U.S. coast, and is only slowly pushing away. This will likely result in a slow Eastward progression of the MCS overnight. I expect it to be near Lake Charles between 5 and 7a.m., and into the Acadiana area between 8 and 10a.m. The severe weather threat will come to an end as the squall line pushes on by. The severe weather threat will be maintained overnight, and it stands to be a very long night tonight in the weather office. The severe weather threat ends comes to an end from West to East after daylight Thursday, and before noon for all. The heavy rain threat will come to an end as well during this time, and we'll transition to light rain and/or drizzle Thursday afternoon in response to wrap-around moisture as a CAA takes over. The associated surface low will be moving from West Texas to SE Missouri by Thursday morning.
Temperatures will remain on the mild side until fropa Thursday morning. Beyond this point, a sharp drop in temperatures will occur, and the warm weather will be a distant memory for Christmas. Highs today in the 70s will be replaced with falling temperatures on Christmas Eve. Morning temperatures around 60 will fall into the 40s by Christmas Eve evening. High pressure builds in just in the "Ole Saint" Nick of time for Christmas. Christmas Day looks clear and cold with lows in the low to mid 30s, and highs close to 50. A much colder pattern will be established behind this boundary. It looks quite cold through New Years. I will have all the complete details with the full forecast package tonight. More updates will be forthcoming this afternoon.
Stay tuned for more!
-DM-
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Mid-Week Severe Weather Threat Hanging in the Balance...Cold & Dry Christmas...
Monday, December 21, 2009
*December Severe Weather Outbreak Wednesday.*
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...3 more days until Christmas! Today was the first official day of winter...The Winter Solstice!!! It's been so pretty here since Friday, and this is well-deserved after a dreary December overall. While it was beautiful here, a huge snowstorm occurred over the weekend along the East Coast. This is essentially the same system that affected us on Thursday. It felt like winter this morning with widespread frost across the area with actual temperatures near freezing. Clear skies greeted us once again, along with a few areas of patchy ground fog. The fog quickly burned off, and it was another Delightful December day with the weekend high pressure in control for one more day. After the cold start, temperatures warmed up rapidly underneath the clear skies and calm winds. Highs were in the 60s across the area, which is at or just above normal for this time of year. A quiet night is in store across the area. High pressure has moved Eastward into Dixie, and a subtle return flow has commenced. The return flow will result in increasing dew points overnight, and much warmer temperatures will result. Low to mid 40s should suffice for Tuesday minimums across the forecast area. Fog won't be a big issue tonight with relatively dry air still in place, but some ground fog could be present once again first thing Tuesday morning. Skies should remain clear overnight.
Tuesday will be a day of transition ahead of the vigorous mid-week storm system. This system is getting its act together out West, and will be moving East into the nation's mid-section at mid-week. Extensive details on this system are forthcoming, as it will have a huge impact on the nation's weather during a time of high traffic volume for Christmas. It will have a significant impact on our area. Tuesday should still be relatively nice day. The present Southerly flow will intensify and become more pronounced. The mid-week system will continue to strengthen as the associated trough deepens and digs Southward. The warming trend will continue with high temperatures nearing 70. Clouds will increase during the day as the return flow intensifies, and as sufficient low-level moisture moves into place by Tuesday evening rain chances will be returning to the forecast. Some scattered showers will begin to develop as the Subtropical Jet Stream strengthens and moves over the area. While a chance of showers is maintained in the return flow Tuesday night, the biggest issue for this portion of the forecast period will be advection fog. Ample amounts of low-level moisture will be place, and the continued onshore flow will bring humidity values back near 100% overnight, and winds will subside enough to allow for a perfect night for fog. Temperatures will be much more mild, and be well above December normals. I expect overnight minimums to be in the mid to upper 50s. The fog could be quite dense after midnight especially closer to the coast. Areas that don't see fog will likely see the formation of a return flow stratus deck generating Mostly Cloudy skies overnight. While it should generally just be a warm and humid night Tuesday night across the forecast area, it should still be quiet. However, while the fog and low clouds are setting in over our area, the major storm system will really be getting ramped up at this time. The trough will continue strengthening, and its associated cold front will be sliding out of the Rockies. Jet dynamics will create cyclogenesis in the lee of the Rockies overnight Tuesday, and this low will strengthen and move Eastward overnight. Precipitation will develop out ahead of the low, and a big snow storm is expected for the Great Plains and Mid West.
Wednesday will be an eventful day across the forecast area. Convergence ahead of the approaching front and trough will strengthen. The atmosphere will be very buoyant, and the energy created by the Jet Stream will generate sufficient dynamics. Fog will dissipate by mid-morning Wednesday as winds strengthen in response to the deepening low and increasingly negatively tilted trough. A warm and humid air mass will reside across the forecast area with highs reaching the lower 70s. Dew points will be in the lower 60s, this is certainly high enough to support severe weather in December. Showers and thunderstorms will become likely during the day as lifting and forcing along and ahead of the front increase. Areal coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity will overspread the forecast are from the SW as moisture converges in the offshore waters, and works inland. The cold front will likely push into East Texas Wednesday evening, and shower and thunderstorm activity will likely congeal into a strong squall line (MCS) along the front as forcing maxes out. A surface low will track into the ARK-LA-TEX region, and this is a position that places the forecast area in a favorable spot for severe weather. The greatest severe weather will evolve in the overnight hours Wednesday as the strong cold front works through the forecast area from West to East. A low-level Jet of 60-70 kts. will be translating across the area in the Wednesday evening time frame as the squall line generates to our West. Instability will be present across the entire forecast area, and all modes of severe weather will be possible. A tornado threat seems more likely Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday night with any supercells that develop out ahead of the squall line. The environment will favor supercellular development somewhere across the forecast area. Sufficient low level shear will be present during this time, and this will aid in the possible tornado outbreak. Another factor contributing to the severe weather therat will be the orientation of the Jet Stream. The forecast area will lie under what is known as the LFQ (left-front quadrant), and this is where the majority of severe weather occurs. The severe weather threat will evolve a hail and damaging wind event overnight with the squall line. Isolated tornadoes will be possible with the squall line as well, but the highest tornado threat typically resides with the individual thunderstorms out ahead of an MCS. On top of the potential severe weather threat, a heavy rain threat exists. Even though we've had a nice 5 day break from the rain, we haven't dried out much, as drying rates are lower this time of year as compared to summer. The ground is still very saturated, and we simply do not need any rain. However, 2-3" of rain seems likely as heavy rains are expected with this system. I will fine tune this forecast as necessary on Tuesday. I think it is more prudent to elaborate on the severe weather threat at this time. Wednesday will be a busy travel day with many people heading out of town for Christmas, so the timing of everything here is essential. Rain chances will be in the likely category for Wednesday, and be highest for the Wednesday night period, perhaps maxing out.
I expect the greatest threat for severe weather to occur between 4p.m. Wednesday and 4 a.m. Thursday. Storms will certainly be possible before this time, and extend for a time afterwards as well. My analysis of the synoptic situation leads me to believe that the greatest threat for severe weather will occur during this 12 hr. window. There are still some timing discrepancies with the forecast models, so this will likely be adjusted as the event gets near. The dynamics associated with the impinging system are very impressive for this time of year. Another question is what portion of the forecast area will be in the greatest threat area for severe weather. The Gulf is always a mitigating factor (which is a plus when it comes to severe weather possibilities) especially this time of year. The greatest threat is often removed from the coastline, and resides north of the I-10 corridor, and I think this is a classic set up for that. That doesn't mean Southern portions of the area will escape severe weather. The set up for severe weather across the area is so favorable, that I will be surprised if the forecast area gets off unscathed. Wednesday will likely be a day with several watches and warnings across the country. It has the potential to be a very significant Christmas week severe weather outbreak. This system is so dynamic that while we're dealing with severe weather on the Southern end, our neighbors to the North in the Mid West will be reeling as well from blizzard conditions. This will make for travel nightmares during this period. I would expect a Tornado Watch or two across the forecast area Wednesday, and also the possibility of a Flash Flood Watch due to the extremely saturated grounds. The Storm Prediction Center has the entire area highlighted for a slight risk of severe weather for the Day 3 period (Wednesday). A graphical representation follows, as well as the expected QPF---Qualitative Precipitation Forecasts (Forecasted Rainfall Amounts). We'll take another shot at forecast specifics on Tuesday, but the bottom line I want to stress here is that you need to be alert of rapidly changing weather conditions on Wednesday, and understand the forecast possibilities, and have a severe weather plan of action in place should it become necessary.
The severe weather threat will end overnight Wednesday into Christmas Eve morning on Thursday as the cold front pushes through and flushes everything out to sea. Strong CAA will become established, as a large area of high pressure builds in behind the departing front. The upper flow will be predominantly from the NW at this point. Clouds will linger through much of the day on Christmas Eve as wrap-around moisture remains present. The departing low will be over the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and the big snowstorm will be pushing Eastward towards the East coast. The severe weather threat will be lesser points to our East. The flow at the surface and aloft will usher in a more stable, much colder air mass. The air behind this front will have Arctic origins, though the thrust of it will be shunted further East. Afternoon experiencing a couple days of above normal temperatures, we'll be back to the reality of winter on Christmas Eve as temperatures will likely fall throughout the day. Residual moisture in place with the orientation of the low will also keep a chance of mainly light rain and/or drizzle in place for much of the day on Christmas Eve. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will be necessary for the morning hours as some post-frontal convection is possible, but we'll transition to the light rain and drizzle for the afternoon hours. Temperatures will be working their way downward from the low 60s around midnight into the 40s by evening church service time. It will quite windy as well with a strong pressure differential in place thanks to the departing system. NNW winds over 20 mph at times will be likely for much of the day Thursday. Winds will subside late Thursday as high pressure settles closer to the forecast area. Santa Claus should feel right at home with a chilly arrival into SW Louisiana. Skies will clear overnight, so Santa should have good visibility over the skies of SW Louisiana. Seasonably cold temperatures are expected with overnight lows heading into Christmas morning expected to be in the low to mid 30s across the forecast area.
Christmas Day through the remainder of Christmas weekend offers benign weather, and good presents from Mother Nature. As everyone awakes on Friday to see what's under the tree, it will be a beautiful morning with clear skies and cold temperatures. It will be much better than last Christmas when it was pushing 80 degrees in many places. It will still on the cold side throughout the day with highs only warming up to near 50 as CAA continues in response to a polar vortex over the Great Lakes and a series of Canadian highs rotating through the NW flow aloft. Aside from a few high clouds, Friday should be a sunny day, and it'll be a nice Louisiana Christmas...if you can't have the snow, at least it'll be cold. The coldest weather will come over the remainder of Christmas weekend as high pressure strengthens and a re-enforcing front moves through Christmas night into early Saturday. Clear skies are expected through Sunday while temperatures gradually cool through Sunday. Saturday morning temperatures should be below freezing for much of the forecast area with the exception being the coast. Upper 20s to lower 30s are expected across the area, while afternoon highs top out between 45-50. The coldest morning of this forecast period, and perhaps of the season will come on Sunday with 20s expected area wide. A hard freeze is likely North of I-10 with a light freeze for the coastal marshes. CAA ceases during the day Sunday as the strong high moves nearly overhead. It will be chilly for the entire Christmas weekend with Sunday highs as many people head home in the upper 40s to lower 50s. At this time Christmas weekend looks precipitation free. For the end of the forecast period on Monday, changes will begin to occur as a Southerly fetch is re-established with the latest high exiting Eastward. It will be another cold morning with lows near freezing once again, but significant modification will occur for the afternoon with highs approaching the 60 degree threshold. No rain is expected at the end of the forecast period. At present, it appears there will be one more rain event before we close out 2009, and that looks to come just beyond this forecast period around Tuesday/Wednesday (29-30). How strong that system is, and how much rain it brings remains to be seen. The overall pattern seems cold and unsettled around New Years into the first week of 2010. Stay tuned for the latest on the severe weather threat looming for Wednesday.
This Date in Weather History...December 21: The first day of winter definitely lived up to the billing on this date in 1929 with a big snow across the Deep South. An exceptional storm produced snow from the Middle Rio Grande Valley of Texas to southern Arkansas. The storm produced 26 inches of snow at Hillsboro TX, 18 inches at El Dorado AR, and 14 inches at Bossier City, LA. Snow fell across portions of SE Texas and SW Louisiana as well. Only trace amounts occurred at Lake Charles, Lafayette, and New Iberia, but 5" fell at Alexandria, and 2" was reported at Beaumont.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 43/68 59/72 61/46 0 0 20 70 90 60
LFT 44/68 58/72 63/47 0 0 20 70 80 70
BPT 47/70 60/73 60/44 0 0 30 80 80 60
AEX 39/66 51/70 56/42 0 0 20 90 80 60
POE 40/67 52/71 57/43 0 0 30 90 80 60
ARA 40/69 58/72 64/48 0 0 20 70 80 70
Tonight...Clear and Not as Cold. Patchy Fog after Midnight. Low 43. Light SE wind.
Tuesday...Partly Cloudy and Warmer. High 68. SE wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of rain. Areas of fog developing overnight. Much warmer. Low 58. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday...Areas of fog early. Cloudy, Warm, and Windy with a 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms becoming likely by afternoon. Heavy rainfall and severe weather possible. High 72. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Wednesday Night...Cloudy, Windy, and Warm with showers and thunderstorms likely. Heavy rain and severe weather possible. Turning Cooler after midnight. Low 61. SSW wind 15-20 mph and gusty, becoming NNW at 20-25 mph and gusty after midnight. Chance of rain 90%.
Christmas Eve...Cloudy, Windy, and Cooler with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning. Light rain and drizzle likely from late morning through mid afternoon before ending. High around 61 in the morning, then temperatures falling throughout the day to 46 by evening. NNW wind 20-25 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 60%.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Tuesday
12-22-09
Low: 43
High: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10-15
Wednesday
12-23-09
Low: 58
High: 72
Rain: 70%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Thursday
12-24-09
Christmas Eve
Low: 61
High: 46
Rain: 60%
Wind: NNW 20-25
Friday
12-25-09
Christmas Day
Low: 36
High: 48
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 15-20
Saturday
12-26-09
Low: 32
Tonight...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Tuesday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Isolated thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Thunderstorms likely and a chance of showers.
...Tide Data...
Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 11:38a.m.
High: 7:11p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
170.18'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Monday, December 21, 2009
Low: 35
Normal Low: 42
Record Low: 22-1901
High: 66
Normal High: 62
Record High: 78-1998
Precipitation
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 7.63"
Normal Month to Date: 3.02"
Year to Date: 72.17"
Normal Year to Date: 55.61"
Record: 4.45"-1923
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:05a.m.
Sunset Tuesday: 5:18p.m.
Tuesday Hunting Times: 6:35a.m.-5:48p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Thursday December 24
Full Moon- Thursday December 31
Last Quarter- Thursday January 7
New Moon- Friday January 15
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
*December Severe Weather Outbreak Wednesday.*
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...3 more days until Christmas! Today was the first official day of winter...The Winter Solstice!!! It's been so pretty here since Friday, and this is well-deserved after a dreary December overall. While it was beautiful here, a huge snowstorm occurred over the weekend along the East Coast. This is essentially the same system that affected us on Thursday. It felt like winter this morning with widespread frost across the area with actual temperatures near freezing. Clear skies greeted us once again, along with a few areas of patchy ground fog. The fog quickly burned off, and it was another Delightful December day with the weekend high pressure in control for one more day. After the cold start, temperatures warmed up rapidly underneath the clear skies and calm winds. Highs were in the 60s across the area, which is at or just above normal for this time of year. A quiet night is in store across the area. High pressure has moved Eastward into Dixie, and a subtle return flow has commenced. The return flow will result in increasing dew points overnight, and much warmer temperatures will result. Low to mid 40s should suffice for Tuesday minimums across the forecast area. Fog won't be a big issue tonight with relatively dry air still in place, but some ground fog could be present once again first thing Tuesday morning. Skies should remain clear overnight.
Tuesday will be a day of transition ahead of the vigorous mid-week storm system. This system is getting its act together out West, and will be moving East into the nation's mid-section at mid-week. Extensive details on this system are forthcoming, as it will have a huge impact on the nation's weather during a time of high traffic volume for Christmas. It will have a significant impact on our area. Tuesday should still be relatively nice day. The present Southerly flow will intensify and become more pronounced. The mid-week system will continue to strengthen as the associated trough deepens and digs Southward. The warming trend will continue with high temperatures nearing 70. Clouds will increase during the day as the return flow intensifies, and as sufficient low-level moisture moves into place by Tuesday evening rain chances will be returning to the forecast. Some scattered showers will begin to develop as the Subtropical Jet Stream strengthens and moves over the area. While a chance of showers is maintained in the return flow Tuesday night, the biggest issue for this portion of the forecast period will be advection fog. Ample amounts of low-level moisture will be place, and the continued onshore flow will bring humidity values back near 100% overnight, and winds will subside enough to allow for a perfect night for fog. Temperatures will be much more mild, and be well above December normals. I expect overnight minimums to be in the mid to upper 50s. The fog could be quite dense after midnight especially closer to the coast. Areas that don't see fog will likely see the formation of a return flow stratus deck generating Mostly Cloudy skies overnight. While it should generally just be a warm and humid night Tuesday night across the forecast area, it should still be quiet. However, while the fog and low clouds are setting in over our area, the major storm system will really be getting ramped up at this time. The trough will continue strengthening, and its associated cold front will be sliding out of the Rockies. Jet dynamics will create cyclogenesis in the lee of the Rockies overnight Tuesday, and this low will strengthen and move Eastward overnight. Precipitation will develop out ahead of the low, and a big snow storm is expected for the Great Plains and Mid West.
Wednesday will be an eventful day across the forecast area. Convergence ahead of the approaching front and trough will strengthen. The atmosphere will be very buoyant, and the energy created by the Jet Stream will generate sufficient dynamics. Fog will dissipate by mid-morning Wednesday as winds strengthen in response to the deepening low and increasingly negatively tilted trough. A warm and humid air mass will reside across the forecast area with highs reaching the lower 70s. Dew points will be in the lower 60s, this is certainly high enough to support severe weather in December. Showers and thunderstorms will become likely during the day as lifting and forcing along and ahead of the front increase. Areal coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity will overspread the forecast are from the SW as moisture converges in the offshore waters, and works inland. The cold front will likely push into East Texas Wednesday evening, and shower and thunderstorm activity will likely congeal into a strong squall line (MCS) along the front as forcing maxes out. A surface low will track into the ARK-LA-TEX region, and this is a position that places the forecast area in a favorable spot for severe weather. The greatest severe weather will evolve in the overnight hours Wednesday as the strong cold front works through the forecast area from West to East. A low-level Jet of 60-70 kts. will be translating across the area in the Wednesday evening time frame as the squall line generates to our West. Instability will be present across the entire forecast area, and all modes of severe weather will be possible. A tornado threat seems more likely Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday night with any supercells that develop out ahead of the squall line. The environment will favor supercellular development somewhere across the forecast area. Sufficient low level shear will be present during this time, and this will aid in the possible tornado outbreak. Another factor contributing to the severe weather therat will be the orientation of the Jet Stream. The forecast area will lie under what is known as the LFQ (left-front quadrant), and this is where the majority of severe weather occurs. The severe weather threat will evolve a hail and damaging wind event overnight with the squall line. Isolated tornadoes will be possible with the squall line as well, but the highest tornado threat typically resides with the individual thunderstorms out ahead of an MCS. On top of the potential severe weather threat, a heavy rain threat exists. Even though we've had a nice 5 day break from the rain, we haven't dried out much, as drying rates are lower this time of year as compared to summer. The ground is still very saturated, and we simply do not need any rain. However, 2-3" of rain seems likely as heavy rains are expected with this system. I will fine tune this forecast as necessary on Tuesday. I think it is more prudent to elaborate on the severe weather threat at this time. Wednesday will be a busy travel day with many people heading out of town for Christmas, so the timing of everything here is essential. Rain chances will be in the likely category for Wednesday, and be highest for the Wednesday night period, perhaps maxing out.
I expect the greatest threat for severe weather to occur between 4p.m. Wednesday and 4 a.m. Thursday. Storms will certainly be possible before this time, and extend for a time afterwards as well. My analysis of the synoptic situation leads me to believe that the greatest threat for severe weather will occur during this 12 hr. window. There are still some timing discrepancies with the forecast models, so this will likely be adjusted as the event gets near. The dynamics associated with the impinging system are very impressive for this time of year. Another question is what portion of the forecast area will be in the greatest threat area for severe weather. The Gulf is always a mitigating factor (which is a plus when it comes to severe weather possibilities) especially this time of year. The greatest threat is often removed from the coastline, and resides north of the I-10 corridor, and I think this is a classic set up for that. That doesn't mean Southern portions of the area will escape severe weather. The set up for severe weather across the area is so favorable, that I will be surprised if the forecast area gets off unscathed. Wednesday will likely be a day with several watches and warnings across the country. It has the potential to be a very significant Christmas week severe weather outbreak. This system is so dynamic that while we're dealing with severe weather on the Southern end, our neighbors to the North in the Mid West will be reeling as well from blizzard conditions. This will make for travel nightmares during this period. I would expect a Tornado Watch or two across the forecast area Wednesday, and also the possibility of a Flash Flood Watch due to the extremely saturated grounds. The Storm Prediction Center has the entire area highlighted for a slight risk of severe weather for the Day 3 period (Wednesday). A graphical representation follows, as well as the expected QPF---Qualitative Precipitation Forecasts (Forecasted Rainfall Amounts). We'll take another shot at forecast specifics on Tuesday, but the bottom line I want to stress here is that you need to be alert of rapidly changing weather conditions on Wednesday, and understand the forecast possibilities, and have a severe weather plan of action in place should it become necessary.
The severe weather threat will end overnight Wednesday into Christmas Eve morning on Thursday as the cold front pushes through and flushes everything out to sea. Strong CAA will become established, as a large area of high pressure builds in behind the departing front. The upper flow will be predominantly from the NW at this point. Clouds will linger through much of the day on Christmas Eve as wrap-around moisture remains present. The departing low will be over the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and the big snowstorm will be pushing Eastward towards the East coast. The severe weather threat will be lesser points to our East. The flow at the surface and aloft will usher in a more stable, much colder air mass. The air behind this front will have Arctic origins, though the thrust of it will be shunted further East. Afternoon experiencing a couple days of above normal temperatures, we'll be back to the reality of winter on Christmas Eve as temperatures will likely fall throughout the day. Residual moisture in place with the orientation of the low will also keep a chance of mainly light rain and/or drizzle in place for much of the day on Christmas Eve. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will be necessary for the morning hours as some post-frontal convection is possible, but we'll transition to the light rain and drizzle for the afternoon hours. Temperatures will be working their way downward from the low 60s around midnight into the 40s by evening church service time. It will quite windy as well with a strong pressure differential in place thanks to the departing system. NNW winds over 20 mph at times will be likely for much of the day Thursday. Winds will subside late Thursday as high pressure settles closer to the forecast area. Santa Claus should feel right at home with a chilly arrival into SW Louisiana. Skies will clear overnight, so Santa should have good visibility over the skies of SW Louisiana. Seasonably cold temperatures are expected with overnight lows heading into Christmas morning expected to be in the low to mid 30s across the forecast area.
Christmas Day through the remainder of Christmas weekend offers benign weather, and good presents from Mother Nature. As everyone awakes on Friday to see what's under the tree, it will be a beautiful morning with clear skies and cold temperatures. It will be much better than last Christmas when it was pushing 80 degrees in many places. It will still on the cold side throughout the day with highs only warming up to near 50 as CAA continues in response to a polar vortex over the Great Lakes and a series of Canadian highs rotating through the NW flow aloft. Aside from a few high clouds, Friday should be a sunny day, and it'll be a nice Louisiana Christmas...if you can't have the snow, at least it'll be cold. The coldest weather will come over the remainder of Christmas weekend as high pressure strengthens and a re-enforcing front moves through Christmas night into early Saturday. Clear skies are expected through Sunday while temperatures gradually cool through Sunday. Saturday morning temperatures should be below freezing for much of the forecast area with the exception being the coast. Upper 20s to lower 30s are expected across the area, while afternoon highs top out between 45-50. The coldest morning of this forecast period, and perhaps of the season will come on Sunday with 20s expected area wide. A hard freeze is likely North of I-10 with a light freeze for the coastal marshes. CAA ceases during the day Sunday as the strong high moves nearly overhead. It will be chilly for the entire Christmas weekend with Sunday highs as many people head home in the upper 40s to lower 50s. At this time Christmas weekend looks precipitation free. For the end of the forecast period on Monday, changes will begin to occur as a Southerly fetch is re-established with the latest high exiting Eastward. It will be another cold morning with lows near freezing once again, but significant modification will occur for the afternoon with highs approaching the 60 degree threshold. No rain is expected at the end of the forecast period. At present, it appears there will be one more rain event before we close out 2009, and that looks to come just beyond this forecast period around Tuesday/Wednesday (29-30). How strong that system is, and how much rain it brings remains to be seen. The overall pattern seems cold and unsettled around New Years into the first week of 2010. Stay tuned for the latest on the severe weather threat looming for Wednesday.
This Date in Weather History...December 21: The first day of winter definitely lived up to the billing on this date in 1929 with a big snow across the Deep South. An exceptional storm produced snow from the Middle Rio Grande Valley of Texas to southern Arkansas. The storm produced 26 inches of snow at Hillsboro TX, 18 inches at El Dorado AR, and 14 inches at Bossier City, LA. Snow fell across portions of SE Texas and SW Louisiana as well. Only trace amounts occurred at Lake Charles, Lafayette, and New Iberia, but 5" fell at Alexandria, and 2" was reported at Beaumont.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 43/68 59/72 61/46 0 0 20 70 90 60
LFT 44/68 58/72 63/47 0 0 20 70 80 70
BPT 47/70 60/73 60/44 0 0 30 80 80 60
AEX 39/66 51/70 56/42 0 0 20 90 80 60
POE 40/67 52/71 57/43 0 0 30 90 80 60
ARA 40/69 58/72 64/48 0 0 20 70 80 70
Tonight...Clear and Not as Cold. Patchy Fog after Midnight. Low 43. Light SE wind.
Tuesday...Partly Cloudy and Warmer. High 68. SE wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of rain. Areas of fog developing overnight. Much warmer. Low 58. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday...Areas of fog early. Cloudy, Warm, and Windy with a 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms becoming likely by afternoon. Heavy rainfall and severe weather possible. High 72. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Wednesday Night...Cloudy, Windy, and Warm with showers and thunderstorms likely. Heavy rain and severe weather possible. Turning Cooler after midnight. Low 61. SSW wind 15-20 mph and gusty, becoming NNW at 20-25 mph and gusty after midnight. Chance of rain 90%.
Christmas Eve...Cloudy, Windy, and Cooler with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning. Light rain and drizzle likely from late morning through mid afternoon before ending. High around 61 in the morning, then temperatures falling throughout the day to 46 by evening. NNW wind 20-25 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 60%.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Tuesday
12-22-09
Low: 43
High: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10-15
Wednesday
12-23-09
Low: 58
High: 72
Rain: 70%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Thursday
12-24-09
Christmas Eve
Low: 61
High: 46
Rain: 60%
Wind: NNW 20-25
Friday
12-25-09
Christmas Day
Low: 36
High: 48
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 15-20
Saturday
12-26-09
Low: 31
High: 47
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10-15
Sunday
12-27-09
Low: 28
High: 50
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Monday
12-28-09
Low: 32
High: 56
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
...Marine Forecast...
Tuesday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Isolated thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Thunderstorms likely and a chance of showers.
...Tide Data...
Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 11:38a.m.
High: 7:11p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
170.18'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Monday, December 21, 2009
Low: 35
Normal Low: 42
Record Low: 22-1901
High: 66
Normal High: 62
Record High: 78-1998
Precipitation
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 7.63"
Normal Month to Date: 3.02"
Year to Date: 72.17"
Normal Year to Date: 55.61"
Record: 4.45"-1923
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:05a.m.
Sunset Tuesday: 5:18p.m.
Tuesday Hunting Times: 6:35a.m.-5:48p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Thursday December 24
Full Moon- Thursday December 31
Last Quarter- Thursday January 7
New Moon- Friday January 15
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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